House of cards

Tony Abbott takes the opportunity of Arthur Sinodinos’s departure to strengthen his cabinet team/rearrange the deckchairs. Left untouched is Joe Hockey, whose mounting unpopularity is confirmed by an Essential Research poll.

Tony Abbott has reshuffled his cabinet in response to Assistant Treasurer Arthur Sinodinos’s announcement of his decision to step down, together with the government’s general state of disarray. The principal changes are that Defence Minister David Johnston has been dumped from cabinet to the back bench, and Sussan Ley fills his cabinet vacancy as Health Minister, having previously been Assistant Education Minister. This initiates a game of musical chairs in which Defence goes to Kevin Andrews; Andrews’ portfolio of Social Services goes to Scott Morrison; and Morrison’s portfolio of Immigration and Border Protection goes to Peter Dutton, the former Health Minister.

The promotion of Ley and the departure of Sinodinos leaves two vacancies in the outer ministry, which are filled by the promotion from parliamentary secretary of Josh Frydenberg, who takes Sinodinos’s role, and Simon Birmingham, who takes Ley’s. The second casualty of the reshuffle together with Johnston is Queensland Senator Brett Mason, who has lost his position as parliamentary secretary. The three parliamentary secretary vacancies are filled by Christian Porter, slightly compensating the Western Australian contingent for the dumping of Johnston; and Kelly O’Dwyer and Karen Andrews, who together with Ley’s promotion to cabinet alleviate the front-bench’s glaring deficiency of women.

All of which gives me a helpful opportunity to launch a new thread as the Christmas/New Year poll drought takes hold. There is also the following to relate:

• The one new poll to keep us amused is an Essential Research survey conducted for The Australian, which found Chris Bowen with a narrow 29% to 27% lead over Joe Hockey on the question of “who would you trust to handle the economy”, compared with a lead for Hockey of 34% to 23% in August. More contentiously, respondents were asked to nominate “Australia’s best treasurer of the past 40 years”, but with only five options included – it apparently being taken for granted that no one would nominate Jim Cairns, Bill Hayden, Phillip Lynch, John Kerin, Ralph Willis, John Dawkins or Chris Bowen, even to the extent that no “others” option was included. The responses ran, in order, Peter Costello (30%), Paul Keating (18%), John Howard (12%), Wayne Swan (8%), Joe Hockey (4%). The Australian’s report by Troy Bramston rather audaciously sold this Hockey being “regarded as the worst treasurer of the past 40 years”. Even when better structured than this, I doubt the utility of such polls, which often reflect the degree of competition for the esteem of partisans of one side over the other. It would be more instructive if respondents were rate each contestant in turn favourably or unfavourably. More on this from Kevin Bonham

• Labor is set to have two changes to its Senate line-up early in the new year, the first being the result of John Faulkner’s retirement next month. His vacancy will be filled by Jenny McAllister, the party’s national president and a colleague of Faulkner in the Left, who joined him in advocating for reform to the party’s preselection processes earlier in the year. McAllister was preselected to replace Faulkner in July after he announced he would not contest the next election.

• Labor’s Senate position in the Australian Capital Territory is set to pass from Kate Lundy to Katy Gallagher, following the former’s surprise announcement last month of her intention to retire, and the latter’s resignation from her position as the ACT’s Chief Minister. Lundy will depart on March 31, creating a casual vacancy to be filled by Gallagher the following day. Gallagher was encouraged to take the position by Senator Penny Wong, who shares her alignment with the Left, and Bill Shorten. She has been succeeded as Chief Minister by her former deputy, Andrew Barr, a move which had Gallagher’s endorsement despite Barr’s alignment with the Right.

• Katy Gallagher’s vacancy in the ACT region of Molonglo will be determined by a countback, with reference to Gallagher’s preference votes from the last election. According to Kirsten Lawson of the Canberra Times, “Labor number-crunchers” expect the seat to go to Meegan Fitzharris, chief-of-staff to Andrew Barr, who was the third-strongest performing candidate on Labor’s ticket at the 2012 election with 2.9% of the vote, behind Gallagher (26.2%) and Barr (4.2%). Preferences nonetheless resulted in the third Labor seat going to incumbent Simon Corbell (2.1%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,246 comments on “House of cards”

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  1. That picture of Sussan Ley cringeing from the Prime Minister’s paws is terrible. One Liberal voter thought it was photoshopped. It will make a great Labor campaign poster.

    The average age of Australian voters is 50 and the majority of Australians are women. Any woman who has put up with cat calls as they passed building sites feels for Sussan Ley and is absolutely gobsmacked that she is still being mauled at her age, in her position in front of photographers.

    How does JBishop Jnr put up with Tony, she keeps her distance and would have some residual power from being Deputy before Abbott became Liberal leader.

    At least Silvio Berlesconi was out proud with his bunga bunga parties sleeping with young girls (oops thats not good either)

  2. frednk

    I like it. The new Liberals not only nasty, but incompetent.

    I am curious to see what direction Labor goes re the east west link fiasco. Are they going to wait to see what Vic Labor can get from the feds before hammering home the incompetence of Abbott backing a project that a cost benefit analysis shows is a bit fat dud

  3. billie

    If it’s photoshopped, it is merely an explanation for Sussan Ley’s obvious withdrawal from TA. She is so obviously unhappy at her position beside him. I wonder what he was saying.

  4. Lizzie

    A fairfax journo took that picture and posted it on his twitter feed. Cant imagine why he would risk photoshopping it. He has taken plenty of excellent images throughout the year that capture Abbott at his inglorious best

  5. lizzie
    Yep. It is why I appreciate the good things in life. You never know when it is going to go seriously pear-shaped.

    victoria
    The first christmas after a family death always has hard bits in it.

  6. Abbott does not have a problem with women.

    Women (and men) have a problem with Abbott.

    Every single person I have discussed Abbott with in my extended family (which includes a heavy leavening of people who run their own businesses) hold Abbott in contempt.

    The contempt is so complete that it needs no exegesis.

  7. Tom @1899

    Yeah, it was starting to drizzle as we walked to Flinders St, and started pouring just as we got to the station, luckily it’s died down when I reached Altona but the streets were wet.

  8. victoria

    I agree. Andrew Meares is a constant photographer at QT and has come up with some doozies. It’s so hard to know what to believe now, but I’m inclined to trust it. That other one where TA was looking down the cleavage of the other “good sort” was more obviously faked.

  9. :large

    To be fair; I don’t tink he has his hand on her ass; she does not strike me as the sort of women that would tolerate that; but she sure looks like a women that is not impressed with what is being said.

  10. frednk – she looks like he has his hand on her bottom.
    Not many women can gracefully extract themselves from that position – many could look like fishwives telling him forcefully to get lost.

    The creep has the top job why does he keep rubbing our noses in it? What a sneering bully!

  11. There have been many ministers, and even PMs, who have had affairs while in office, but they have generally behaved themselves in public. What really annoys me about TA is the pretence that his marriage is fine and the man is “charming aand likeable”. It’s the hypocrisy.

  12. So I did some research. Kirsty Hinze-Clark is a director of Australian Wildlife Conservancy. And Comanche are definitely advertising it during the Sydney to Hobart.

    A long way from her grandfathers type of work. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russ_Hinze

    http://www.australianwildlife.org/about/directors.aspx

    https://www.australianwildlife.org/field-updates/2014/comanche.aspx

    http://www.australianwildlife.org/field-updates/2010/kristy-hinze-and-womens-weekly-help-showcase-awcs-work.aspx

  13. Simon katich

    Is that peppa pig?

    I know age is no boundary for love. But such a big age difference in Kirsty heinz relationship with her partner makes me uncomfortable. Her partner being a billionaire doesnt make me feel any better about it. 😀

  14. frednk@1922

    I love family get togethers; a reasonable bright lot with divers political views (most old Liberals); and politics is always on the menu. I enjoyed telling them I had joined the Labor party and why (they are trying to diversify their support base and if no one responds, those trying to make it happen will get frustrated and give up). This was well supported by all flavours with a lot of discussion on the mess Howard had left the Liberal party in, with all the moderates packing up and leaving.

    Good on you frednk for joining the Labor Party. 😀

    There seems to be an expanding number of ALP members on PB.

  15. Not obvious to me from that photo that Abbott is actually touching Ley.

    Not that I object to him getting a taste of unfair misperceptions, seeing as viciously dishing them out is his modus operandi.

    [The creep has the top job why does he keep rubbing our noses in it? What a sneering bully!]

    Because he can’t do peacetime, he only knows how to do endless conflict and chaos. It is what makes him so dangerous.

  16. confessions a page or so back:

    [If it can be believed, Shorten’s was even worse.]

    I thought Shorten’s Christmas message was as boring as.

    My worry is that he can’t get any message out there with class and purpose.

  17. Victoria,

    It sure is Peppa Pig.

    They have 2 children I think. When I see so many apparently suitable couples of similar ages breaking up – who is to judge if an age gap relationship will work.

  18. I am not defending Abbott BUT a photo is an instant in time from an angle and can be very misleading. That photo could very well conveyed a very different message if taken an instant either side or from a different angle so I urge caution in reading much into it. I would like to see a snippet of video before passing judgement.

  19. MTBW@1971

    confessions a page or so back:

    If it can be believed, Shorten’s was even worse.


    I thought Shorten’s Christmas message was as boring as.

    My worry is that he can’t get any message out there with class and purpose.

    I didn’t see Shorten’s message.

    Was the problem with the content, the delivery, or both?

    Surely he has at least one good speech writer who could put together a good message?

  20. Why are they celebrating as if they have achieved something groundbreaking, when they should be profoundly embarrassed that there are only 2 women in cabinet?

  21. Simon Katich

    True. It is just me. I am uncomfortable with the idea that my own children could have a partner who is even older than their own father. I am guity of being an ageist

  22. bemused

    Both! He seemed like he was reading a tele text – he needs passion and fight in him but I don’t here any of that from him.

    The ALP ballot should have elected Albo – there is a fighter and that is what we need.

    Albo would have run rings around Abbott and the other morons.

    I am also seeing lots of passion from Tony Burke he knows how to hit a nail on it’s head.

  23. lizzie@1977

    bemused

    MTBW wanted Albo to be leader and her comments on him are usually negative.

    Bollocks!

    I voted for Albo to be leader too, but Shorten won and that settled the matter.

    I am sure that, like me, MTBW just wants to see Shorten perform at his very best and defeat Abbott.

    And she quoted confessions.

  24. lizzie

    I just want someone who will attack the rot we are getting from this Government and yes I know Albo so may be biased in that way.

    But what I really want is for the ALP to return to power over this lot of dead shits and we need to find the best way to get there.

  25. I’m pretty sure our extended family got the best present possible yesterday – a brand new little girl, born at about 7 in the evening, first of her generation. The mother, my eldest niece, and the baby are both in good form after their rather too long ordeal. My poor brother is a mess!

    Such a joy!

  26. MTBW

    I think we need a whole team attacking the Coalition, each with different strengths. Albo has been writing good stuff about Infrastructure. Andrew Leigh has a good piece criticising the Coalition’s non-policy on the RET and sustainable energy jobs. Shorten’s message was certainly more human than the Tony/Margie teleprompt reading.

  27. lizzie @1990

    We do indeed need people with different skills and for mine Shorten lacks engagement to the broader community.

    He is not leading the AWU anymore.

  28. MTBW@1995

    lizzie @1990

    We do indeed need people with different skills and for mine Shorten lacks engagement to the broader community.

    He is not leading the AWU anymore.

    That boat has long since sailed.

    Shorten is the leader and needs to perform to the best of his ability and be given whatever assistance he needs to do so.

    He needs good speech writers and perhaps so me coaching on his presentation.

  29. victoria, boer, confessions, mtbw…

    Thanks 🙂

    We’re all delighted. I just love babies…am fascinated by them…love being with them.

    The presents thing just make sit more fun. One of my oldest friends has a birthday on Christmas eve, so we always make sure the present is a big one…usually go out to play or a concert as a kind of annual tribute…

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