Tony Abbott has reshuffled his cabinet in response to Assistant Treasurer Arthur Sinodinos’s announcement of his decision to step down, together with the government’s general state of disarray. The principal changes are that Defence Minister David Johnston has been dumped from cabinet to the back bench, and Sussan Ley fills his cabinet vacancy as Health Minister, having previously been Assistant Education Minister. This initiates a game of musical chairs in which Defence goes to Kevin Andrews; Andrews’ portfolio of Social Services goes to Scott Morrison; and Morrison’s portfolio of Immigration and Border Protection goes to Peter Dutton, the former Health Minister.
The promotion of Ley and the departure of Sinodinos leaves two vacancies in the outer ministry, which are filled by the promotion from parliamentary secretary of Josh Frydenberg, who takes Sinodinos’s role, and Simon Birmingham, who takes Ley’s. The second casualty of the reshuffle together with Johnston is Queensland Senator Brett Mason, who has lost his position as parliamentary secretary. The three parliamentary secretary vacancies are filled by Christian Porter, slightly compensating the Western Australian contingent for the dumping of Johnston; and Kelly O’Dwyer and Karen Andrews, who together with Ley’s promotion to cabinet alleviate the front-bench’s glaring deficiency of women.
All of which gives me a helpful opportunity to launch a new thread as the Christmas/New Year poll drought takes hold. There is also the following to relate:
• The one new poll to keep us amused is an Essential Research survey conducted for The Australian, which found Chris Bowen with a narrow 29% to 27% lead over Joe Hockey on the question of “who would you trust to handle the economy”, compared with a lead for Hockey of 34% to 23% in August. More contentiously, respondents were asked to nominate “Australia’s best treasurer of the past 40 years”, but with only five options included – it apparently being taken for granted that no one would nominate Jim Cairns, Bill Hayden, Phillip Lynch, John Kerin, Ralph Willis, John Dawkins or Chris Bowen, even to the extent that no “others” option was included. The responses ran, in order, Peter Costello (30%), Paul Keating (18%), John Howard (12%), Wayne Swan (8%), Joe Hockey (4%). The Australian’s report by Troy Bramston rather audaciously sold this Hockey being “regarded as the worst treasurer of the past 40 years”. Even when better structured than this, I doubt the utility of such polls, which often reflect the degree of competition for the esteem of partisans of one side over the other. It would be more instructive if respondents were rate each contestant in turn favourably or unfavourably. More on this from Kevin Bonham
• Labor is set to have two changes to its Senate line-up early in the new year, the first being the result of John Faulkner’s retirement next month. His vacancy will be filled by Jenny McAllister, the party’s national president and a colleague of Faulkner in the Left, who joined him in advocating for reform to the party’s preselection processes earlier in the year. McAllister was preselected to replace Faulkner in July after he announced he would not contest the next election.
• Labor’s Senate position in the Australian Capital Territory is set to pass from Kate Lundy to Katy Gallagher, following the former’s surprise announcement last month of her intention to retire, and the latter’s resignation from her position as the ACT’s Chief Minister. Lundy will depart on March 31, creating a casual vacancy to be filled by Gallagher the following day. Gallagher was encouraged to take the position by Senator Penny Wong, who shares her alignment with the Left, and Bill Shorten. She has been succeeded as Chief Minister by her former deputy, Andrew Barr, a move which had Gallagher’s endorsement despite Barr’s alignment with the Right.
• Katy Gallagher’s vacancy in the ACT region of Molonglo will be determined by a countback, with reference to Gallagher’s preference votes from the last election. According to Kirsten Lawson of the Canberra Times, “Labor number-crunchers” expect the seat to go to Meegan Fitzharris, chief-of-staff to Andrew Barr, who was the third-strongest performing candidate on Labor’s ticket at the 2012 election with 2.9% of the vote, behind Gallagher (26.2%) and Barr (4.2%). Preferences nonetheless resulted in the third Labor seat going to incumbent Simon Corbell (2.1%).
Does the Julia Gillard book have 2 ply or 3 ply pages….
[1999
MTBW
briefly
Do you have a name yet?]
Not yet…she had a “working title” during pregnancy…very funny…her name will emerge soon I’m sure.
In my wider family we have lots of boys, so a girl is a treasure.
Josh Frydenberg really fancies himself
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/new-push-to-impose-the-gst-on-online-purchases-20141226-12dvw2.html
[2000
rossmcg
The new family member is in elite company. My late father was born on Christmas Day and he was a good man.
Best wishes]
Thanks rossmcg. 🙂
Perhaps what we need, and what Australia will vote for, is someone who is not perceived as another shouter, street brawler type.
Albo has his strengths, but being a calm steady leader is not one of them. I would find him off-putting as leader and I am sure I’m more forgiving of potential ALP leaders than most of the public.
I’ve expressed reservations about Shorten as leader since he was a candidate in the ballot, but the ALP is in a solid position, and I’m more than happy for a calm, considered – dare I say boring – alternative to the thuggish Abbott.
As long as Shorten stands up for the things that he needs to stand up for, and says what needs to be said, he deserves to stay as ALP leader, and advocating for some alternative is not helpful in my opinion.
And that is not to say that constructive criticism of Shorten shouldn’t be aired – he does need to improve his on-air delivery, and pointing out where he may be going wrong and how he could improve is perfectly reasonable.
But the absolute last thing the ALP need at the moment is even a whiff of leadershit. The PLP have been doing a good job of keeping their personalities and feuding under control – and about bloody time if I say so myself, the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd fiasco better not be repeated in our lifetimes.
N2this
[Does the Julia Gillard book have 2 ply or 3 ply pages….]
Why would it matter? What emerges from your fundamental orifice is apparently no more odious than that of any other.
briefly@1998
Hi briefly, you sound a lot like me in your attitude to babies which I also extend to young children.
The youngest in the extended family is my 9 month old granddaughter who is just a delight. So alert! So inquisitive! So wanting to join in everything!
So you are now ‘uncle briefly’! Congratulations. 😀
Sadly, N2this, your fundamental problem is not with your output but your input. You swallow many things that you’d be best avoiding entirely.
victoria@2003
Why do you say that?
I agree with him. The law should be applied equally and overseas purchases not escape the GST. Labor should wave this one through as soon as a suitable, low cost, mechanism for charging it is worked out.
2005
Jackol
Leadership was an issue for many years prior to the Rudd-Gillard shambles. The tussles between Beazley, Crean and Latham were all part of the same set of fixations. They also reflected the difficulty of challenging Howard.
I think leadership is important, but if there is one outcome of the contests of the last decade or so, it is that the public have tended to become a lot less emotionally invested in leaders. Approval of and loyalty to leaders is now highly contingent. They can be removed at any time, which is as it should be in our system.
bemused
[I agree with him. The law should be applied equally and overseas purchases not escape the GST. Labor should wave this one through as soon as a suitable, low cost, mechanism for charging it is worked out.]
I can’t disagree with that. If a way can be found to administer this at similar cost per dollar recovered as other revenue sources, then by all means, let’s do it.
bemused
I say that cos I reckon Frydenberg is full of himself.
[2007
bemused]
Yes, there’s nothing more fulfilling. 🙂
jackol
What is done is done I am not saying that the leadership needs to change.
I would like Shorten to be more aware that when he is making a speech or a celebratory message he needs to be more passionate.
We are not the Party of Abbott who bores people to death but we need to lift our level of communication.
And yes, briefly, congratulations on the new arrival. Your joy is audible even in this medium. 🙂
Best wishes with a hint of envy …
Over the Xmas lunch talk briefly turned to politics. I was interested to hear the views of the right wing of the extended family. Not a single person had a good word to say for Abbott. Comments ranged form “I’d don’t know what they are doing – I don’t think they know either” to “He’s an idiot”. This from relatives that, year after year have hoisted the Liberal flag.
I won’t go so far as to say they’ll be voting for the ALP anytime soon but they are certainly dismayed at the collapse of the Liberal party’s standing.
A genuine (unpaid) Abbott supported seems to be a rare breed now.
Fran Barlow@2011
😮 Even a Green agrees!
I can see a couple of approaches to this that would probably be viable. The payments system with credit card providers and paypal and a system requiring Australia Post and couriers to collect it based upon declared value.
victoria@2012
I defer to your expertise.
[Everybody suffering from celebration overload?]
Ugh, woke up this morning with a headache. Wondering if my cat waking me up had anything to do with it. All I did last night was walk around the city, no celebrations and not a drop.
bemused
We all have an opinion
Work to Rule
What would it take to change their vote?
http://media.bom.gov.au/social/blog/636/hands-across-the-ocean-how-global-collaboration-has-transformed-our-tsunami-warnings/
Today we remember those who were lost 10 years ago in the tsunami, and their families and friends and also those who went into hardship as a result of it.
briefly –
There are a bunch of different forces at work in this.
Our politics has become more presidential, which should work to focus public attention on the leaders of the parties – and it does. However, our major party politics has also become almost entirely brand/PR driven, and so it is also unsurprising that the public now treat the leaders as different brands of washing powder. Why would anyone be emotionally invested in washing powder?
But this move to “markteting” political parties and political leaders is inextricably linked to the decline in connection to and participation in the parties by the public. Whether one causes the other is kind of irrelevant, and other issues like how much spare time the working public feels it has to devote to politics comes into it as well, of course, and the usual gamut of issues: atomization of society, individualism, aspirational/status goods and activities taking an increasing amount of individual time to service etc etc.
It’s not clear whether you’re talking about the public or MPs/party members.
Personally (not being an MP or a party member) I’d say the loyalty of the public for a leader is something that is (and always has been) ‘won’ by that leader. I don’t think the dynamics of that have changed that much, but the parties behind the leaders have changed, and this has had a broader effect on modern political leadership.
As far as loyalty within the parties … that’s a different matter. Both of the major parties have become quite dysfunctional as their traditional organizational structures have become obsolete. The relationship of MPs and party members to their leader is something that was bound to change, but in the end the public attitude is what matters, not what the MPs or party members think – if the MPs and party members brawl and are disunited, then the public will not vote for the party and will lose any faith in the leader. Basically parties need to choose their leaders carefully and stick with them – not forever, but give them a good chance. If they don’t do this then they won’t be in government very long or often.
To my mind the Latham/Rudd lessons are related to the ‘choose your leader carefully’ part of that. I don’t think the party could have stuck with either of these men longer than they did, but they shouldn’t have been elevated to leader in the first place. I think both captured the ‘shiny thing’ vote on the part of the ALP – they both looked like they could get the public’s attention and draw it to the ALP through the seemingly interminable Howard years where the ALP seemingly couldn’t take a trick even when the polls gave them (apparently false) hope. Latham/Rudd’s ability to provide a stable centre for the ALP apparently didn’t enter into the equation (or not sufficiently to preclude them being elevated). Whether Beazley or Crean should have been leader and whether they could have been good PMs we’ll never know. Crean, by his subsequent ineptness, probably not.
Poor leaders need to be able to be removed at any time, but the parties really shouldn’t be choosing such poor leaders in the first place.
Changing leaders on a whim is a recipe for political disaster.
[2011
Fran Barlow
bemused
I agree with him. The law should be applied equally and overseas purchases not escape the GST. Labor should wave this one through as soon as a suitable, low cost, mechanism for charging it is worked out.
I can’t disagree with that. If a way can be found to administer this at similar cost per dollar recovered as other revenue sources, then by all means, let’s do it.]
Payments all have to be executed through the banking system, one way or another. So the banks can be given the responsibility for collecting the GST. They would very soon find a low-cost way of ensuring compliance.
The system could be arranged so that all outwards overseas transactions would be subject to GST. Where GST did not apply – that is, for remittances that were not related to purchases but were made for another purpose – remitting parties would be able to claim a refund providing they could produce a documentary record for the payment.
I think with the GST on online purchases, they can practically only lower the minimum threshold. The cost of chasing some really small purchases on overseas retailers will cost more than the revenue gained from it.
[2015
Fran Barlow]
Thanks Fran 🙂
Bemused
Collecting GST on imports is fine in theory but I suspect impossible in practice.
Couriers and Australia Post collect it? my son buys a lot of stuff on the net and most times it is simply left at the door, no signature required. Good luck collecting GST in that case.
In a few cases where a signature was required had had to attend the local mail centre and often reported the queue was out the door with people collecting parcels.
I suspect we would need a lot of new infrastructure and the costs would be prohibitive.
And then the sender would simply do what people did in the old days. List the item as a gift or second hand. Tax dodged and chasing people for the money just won’t be worth it
Frydenburg would do better to address multinationals dodging tax through tax havens but I am sure he won’t .
Jackol
This opinion piece by Tim Dunlop was posted a few days ago. He makes some pertinent comments
[The underlying issue is that both major parties have drained the office of prime minister of authority by converging on an economic program that subsumes economic sovereignty into the vagaries of a globalised economy. Control over key aspects of social and economic policy has shifted from the Treasury benches in Canberra to the stateless instrumentalities of so-called free-trade agreements and organisations like the G20.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-24/dunlop-the-more-things-shuffle-more-they-stay-the-same/5985210
rossmcg@2027
I think your implied notion of handing over cash to a courier at the front door is a straw man, as is the problem of false declarations.
Yes, there is bound to be some leakage and avoidance, but a lot of goods come in from big players overseas and if they were found to be making false declarations they could find themselves in a whole world of pain.
The financial side of the transactions is probably, as briefly suggests, the key to it.
Bemused
I know I debate you at my peril but you said it:
“The payments system with credit card providers and paypal and a system requiring Australia Post and couriers to collect it based upon declared value.”
victoria@2021
Hard to say. I think there’s a visceral impediment to voting ALP, but another year like the last and that may change that. I think the greens could pick up a few with an approach that was more targeted at picking up progressively minded liberal voters with a pathological fear of the union movement.
You’ve got to love Albo quoting Billy Bragg.
The sad thing is 30 years on, many of his words reflect problems and issues that still exist today.
Regarding Albo and Shorten (mostly page 40) I completely agree with Bemused!
I would expect and prefer a bit more fire in the belly, which I think Albo would provide, but the ALP don’t need to win my vote.
Just look at the polls. This has been a record turnaround after a landslide election, and the ALP lead only seems to be getting firmer.
It might satisfy rusted ALP supporters for Shorten to go the biff, but would it attract the centre, which is how you win elections?
rossmcg@2030
You are not in any peril.
I buy stuff from overseas too, but my motivation is not to avoid GST, and I would happily pay GST on all my purchases.
Bemused
Fair enough. I know that my son is motivated by the chance to buy stuff simply not available here, mostly music related. And when the dollar was at 90c plus there were bargains out there.
Work To Rule@2031
I think you are right about ‘fear of the union movement’.
I am not anti-union, quite the opposite in fact. But unions engaged in a fight do not always behave in a gentlemanly manner and there can be collateral damage. Labor needs to avoid suffering from this.
One of the urgent issues confronting ALP reformers is how to re-define and modernise the relationship with the unions.
rossmcg@2035
Exactly what motivates me mostly.
The other factor, and one which I think the Govt needs to address is the ‘Australia Tax’, the often huge discrepancy between prices in Australia compared with elsewhere. This is not local retailers getting rich but is the overseas manufacturers and distributors charging what they think the market is stupid enough to bear.
Vic @1944
[ This year, the budget spoke for itself and Labor did not have to do a great deal to damage the coalition. It was all self inflicted. I daresay that Labor have their work cut out for them in 2015 to solidify support for them and against the coalition. ]
They “reset” the GP co-payment, but it still transparently looks like a plot to destroy bulk billing. And then they went all Ebenezer Scrooge buy cutting services on Xmas eve. I don’t think there is any evidence they have figured anything out.
They need the economy to start improving, and fast. But at the moment the time when interest rates are expected to rise (as the economy improves) keeps getting pushed back.
Perhaps they should start talking it up rather than using “debt and deficit” to justify being nasty to the poor (which is also too transparent and not popular).
There has been very little ‘gentlemanly behaviour’ from the Liberals and their various business allies and media cheer squad in the last few years.
Unions need to sell themselves in a much more positive light. After all, why is it that employees in Australia have annual leave, sick leave, long service leave, a high standard of safety in the workplace, penalty rates and overtime for long or unsocial hours? All the things that are in danger of being wound back over the next decade or so. Let alone a decent living wage compared to those of American workers, let alone workers in Asia.
Hint: It’s not out of the goodness of corporate hearts.
Steve777@2039
I don’t think you will find any argument here apart from maybe New2This if it is still around.
Bemused
I think Eric Abetz has plans for the “Australia tax”
I believe that one of the reasons we pay more for equivalent goods than other countries is simply because sellers will charge what they think the market will bear and in a high wage country people will pay.
If the Tories get their way and real wages are cut there will be some pain at the cash register. In fact the pain is already being felt.
I am sure Australia’s retailers will be overjoyed if the Tories drive us into recession.
We cut wages, Abetz will cry. But I went broke, replied the small businessman.
[The magnitude of Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s “woman problem” has been underlined in new research which shows women rate the government very poorly across all policy areas and are harsher than men in their assessment of the government’s overall performance.
Female voters are also more pessimistic about the economic outlook, according to the new polling analysis.
By JWS Research, the analysis also shows women’s satisfaction with their standard of living has declined much more precipitously than men’s over the last year, a year the government has been under fire for failing to “get” women.
The findings are based on the views of 1004 Australians aged 18 and over. The views were collected as part of an online survey conducted from November 19 to 24.
…
“The perception is it’s essentially a male government focusing on male issues,” said John Scales, JWS Research managing director.]
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/women-rate-tony-abbott-poorly-on-all-fronts-20141226-12dgit.html
Have a look at the pic for this article. In case you missed it, JulieB is no longer a politician, she’s a “celebrity”. And her Christmas message was the tops.
http://www.theage.com.au/lifestyle/celebrity/a-social-media-christmas-20141226-12dtja.html
[2028
victoria
Control over key aspects of social and economic policy has shifted from the Treasury benches in Canberra to the stateless instrumentalities of so-called free-trade agreements and organisations like the G20.]
I think this is mistaken. The free trade agreements can have at most a marginal effect on the economy while the G20 – no more than the OECD, the IMF, the World Bank, the UN or the WTO – cannot and does not set economic policy in this jurisdiction.
The Government has delegated its powers in relation to monetary policy to its own agency, the RBA, while fiscal, regulatory and social policies, as they have always been, are fought out in the Parliament and between the States and the Commonwealth.
Dunlop’s assertion suggests we have lost our sovereignty – that our circumstances will in future be decided for us rather than by us. If taken literally, it would mean that our electoral and legislative processes are all meaningless. This proposition is wrong. The Tories might like the public to believe that there is “no alternative” to their world view, but this is another thing altogether.
The fact is we have choices and we must continue to make them the best way we can. Sadly, one of the consequences of radical Tory rule is that our institutional decision-making capacity has been trashed. The next Labor Government will have to set out to rebuild this capability along with the economy and the social safety network.
[Have a look at the pic for this article.]
That photo of the Romney family is highly disturbing.
On JBishop, I haven’t seen any of the criticism levelled at JG for posing in magazines directed at Bishop. A curious thing…
Yeah, dumping the leader is exactly what an opposition party very comfortably leading in the polls should do.
Shifting the focus away from a poorly performing and unpopular government, to an opposition fighting itself makes perfect sense.
Reminding voters why they voted the last government out with an out-of-nowhere leadership challenge is definitely a winner of an idea.
Seriously, the gems that are posted on here at times are just hilarious.
Anyway, I hope you all had a Happy Merrymas yesterday and got to spend it with those you care about!
[2042
lizzie]
Women seem to be more highly sensitised than men to issues relating to income, security and “fairness.” In many ways, this makes intuitive sense.
I have to admit, I do buy things from time to time overseas, and if I can afford to buy something just under the current threshold of $1000 (inclusive of duties, etc), I can pretty well pay the GST of up to $100.
However, for ATO to be chasing every single one of these, they have to admit to erring on some loss revenue, or they are going to end up taxing genuine gifts and personal parcels.
Lizzie
From that photo of Bishop you posted – did you note the look on Abbott’s face when he was cutting the meat – seems he is no good for anything.
Raaraa@2048
You won’t have paid for gifts to yourself or personal parcels.