BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate wraps up business for the year (I think) showing the Abbott government in worse shape than ever.

Unless ReachTEL has something up its sleeve in the next few days, this week’s BludgerTrack reading is the last for the year, and it finds no indication that the rapid momentum away from the Coalition is tapering off. Indeed, the current output of the model has the Coalition in a worse position than at the height of the budget backlash, when Labor’s two-party vote peaked at 53.8%. Now it’s at 54.2%, following a 0.3% shift since last week that has also delivered seats in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia on the seat projection. Palmer United is also showing no signs of bottoming out, a remorseless downward trend since the mid-year Senate changeover having sent it from 6.3% to 2.3%.

A new set of leadership ratings from Newspoll this week knocks the froth off a recent improvement for Bill Shorten, and in doing so reverts his trendline to its remarkable picture of stability throughout the year, interrupted only by some particularly strong ratings in the immediate aftermath of the budget. Tony Abbott’s net rating slips slightly further, but this is due to the momentum of the trend rather than the effect of Newspoll, which was no worse for him than last fortnight’s. Newspoll also suggests the surge to Shorten on preferred prime minister is levelling off, albeit that he retains what from Abbott’s perspective is an alarmingly big lead by the normal standards of an Opposition Leader.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,672 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor”

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  1. Might I also point out that Leyonhjelm said if they’d been allowed a concealed weapon. Switzerland does have quite a few restrictions on “bearing arms” (you need a carrying permit) in public and the access to ammunition. Military personnel aren’t given firearms that are easy to conceal, either. Basically, raising Der Schweiz is rather irrelevant to the point he raised.

  2. ruawake

    [The sacking of back office staff …..Not too much to worry about at a media co. Huge problem in a Hospital.]
    Which is exactly where Potato Dutton has said cuts should be made.

  4. poroti and rua

    Cormann has the same opinion, and I think Joe, for many areas of govt.
    “We will provide the same frontline services but …” Bwahhahaha.

  5. In the USA; which of the following groups commit the most homicides:

    1) White females
    2) White males
    3) Black females
    4) Black males

    Hint: If your white and male and want to live; don’t keep a gun in the house.

  10. poroti – thanks for that – #9 is quite interesting, as this rate of households with guns is continuing to fall.

    I think the CDC study showed that a gun in a household was most likely to kill (in descending order)

    1.domestic dispute killing by household member
    2.household member suicide
    3.accidental shooting death including children
    4.household member killed by intruder using that weapon

  13. Rocket Rocket

    BK , in addition to his Dawn Patrol, used to have a “From the Land of the Free” section. A regular was a site listing the weekly “gun fails”, a round up of the ways people or their kids accidentally shoot/killed themselves or others. Home was the favorite place for such stoopid and young kids finding a gun at home and shooting/killing siblings, friends or themselves a regular event.

  14. frednk@355

    In the USA; which of the following groups commit the most homicides:

    1) White females
    2) White males
    3) Black females
    4) Black males

    Hint: If your white and male and want to live; don’t keep a gun in the house.]

    Males committed the vast majority of homicides in the United States at that time, representing 90% of the total number of offenders.[1]
    Young adult black males had the highest homicide offending rate compared to offenders in other racial and sex categories.[1]
    White females of all ages had the lowest offending rates of any racial or age groups.[1]]

    from wikipedia

  16. [
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Thursday, December 18, 2014 at 7:46 pm | Permalink

    frednk
    white females?

    ]
    Yes; I was arguing with a white female; she had just trotted out the “you need a gun to defend yourself against intruders” (Rocket Rocket rest assured no 5. is not high on the list). I was sure most homicides where between people that knew each other; I had been in the USA for several months and was getting quite fed up with their rot so the bet was on and the data was found (the dept of justice keep it). Between people that knew each other was the winner, with white women the biggest killers. I was surprised (I expected white males).

    I showed her the data and assured her I had no intention of arguing with her again.

  17. Don and frednk

    I think the really sad statistic would be to calculate your odds of being killed by gun in the USA. Black males, especially if poor, would be in the lead by a terrifying margin.

  20. A final Haiku for Hockey at the end of the year:

    Hockey

    The Treasury his at last
    Still he talks us down.
    It is all he knows.

    Evening all.

  21. ag0044 – Fortunately this will be another one-term right wing government. Labour might not get an outright majority, but I think will be able to govern with supoport from the Welsh and Scottish Nationalists. The Liberals will be near on wiped out.

    And one of the first comments on that article brings up one of the most famous “austerity drives” – FDR in the USA 1937 which drove a faltering economy back into recession.

  23. Poroti, the site the Gunfail round-up comes from is Daily Kos, a really good, often witty left of centre US site that I recommend for anyone interested in US politics

  24. Lardybutcute

    Thanks heaps. I wanted to find it again but couldn’t for the life of me think of the name and my Google efforts scored a “Fail”.

  25. frednk@366

    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Thursday, December 18, 2014 at 7:46 pm | Permalink

    frednk
    white females?


    Yes; I was arguing with a white female; she had just trotted out the “you need a gun to defend yourself against intruders” (Rocket Rocket rest assured no 5. is not high on the list). I was sure most homicides where between people that knew each other; I had been in the USA for several months and was getting quite fed up with their rot so the bet was on and the data was found (the dept of justice keep it). Between people that knew each other was the winner, with white women the biggest killers. I was surprised (I expected white males).

    I showed her the data and assured her I had no intention of arguing with her again.

    Where are your stats? From what I can gather, it is males every time. See my post above.

    In any case, the only meaningful statistic is (e.g.) per 100 000 people, not absolute numbers, which is meaningless.

  27. Sad to hear of the retirement of Kate Lundy, I was disappointed that she wasn’t on the front bench.

    On gun control, lets stop and think even if gun laws were different who in that cafe would have had a gun, they were a collection of bankers, lawyers, cafe employees and a few others, I don’t think most of them would have had a gun on them under any circumstances.

    I hate to say this but if he has suspected anyone might have a gun, he would have just walked in and started shooting so in affect the death toll may well have been higher.

  29. Victoria

    One can’t stop feeling sad for the three children, if it had been an irate client who had gone off the rocker, one could try and rationale it.

    Its interesting just how small the world is, we think that we have 18 million people but within the professional services it is really quite a small pond.

  31. Fascinating to read the Kouk’s blog where he demonstrates, courtesy of myefo that the Abbott govt will actually spend more over the forward estimates (as a % of GDP) than the Gillard govt did in its last budget.
    Kouk reckons based on the figures that if Hockey had maintained labor’s last spending % going forward that we would be in surplus in 2 years.
    Extraordinary. What are they spending it all on is what I would like to know. Or perhaps it is more a reflection of the massivre revenue write downs.

  33. Speaking of the broad arrow cafe in tassie, I was planning to leave from where I lived in Launceston at the time to go visit Port Arthur that same fateful day. Still remember so clearly the phone call i got from my brother who of all ways had heard the news via listening to Rex Hunt calling the footy on the radio. Apparently Rex interrupted the call with a “ladies and gentlemen we are hearing of a massive tragedy at Port Arthur now occurring. Please do not go there”.

  35. Here is the first comment by ‘aRandomWolf’ on the picture of the Principal of the school attacked by the Taliban, linked by @Just Me @382:

    [“There’s barbarism, and then there are acts so heinous they defy the human tongue. This belongs to the latter.”]

  37. Has our govt had anything to say to the families of those whose children were massacred in Pakistan, even if it’s just to do that ‘thoughts and prayers’ thing?

  38. I liked this bit

    Mr Abbott is still said to favour a minimal reshuffle and to prefer more sweeping changes at the end of 2015, ahead of the 2016 election.

    I think that sweeping change at the end of 2015 might just include Tony Tosspot himself!

    And no offence intended to Edmund Barton, our first PM, nicknamed “Toby Tosspot”

  41. Re Confessions @387: Tony Abbott has responded with an appropriate message of support and sympathy, including ‘thoughts and prayers’.

  43. Young black males in the US commit homicide at about 20 times the rate of the general population. They are also the victims about as often.

  47. mexicanbeemer

    There is the theory of six degrees of seperation..

    [Six degrees of separation is the theory that everyone and everything is six or fewer steps away, by way of introduction, from any other person in the world, so that a chain of “a friend of a friend” statements can be made to connect any two people in a maximum of six steps. It was originally set out by Frigyes Karinthy in 1929 and popularized by a 1990 play written by John Guare.]

  49. RR

    They still have a huge race problem in the US.

    Still, the statistics for our indigenous population is just as bad with the victim and perp rate being about ten times the non-indigenous rates.

  50. Just seen hockey on news saying it is not a good time to be increasing prices via the GST as recommended by the OECD

    Families are under pressure, he said

    But if is the right time to be increasing the price of going to the doctor

    The man is a buffoon

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