BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate wraps up business for the year (I think) showing the Abbott government in worse shape than ever.

Unless ReachTEL has something up its sleeve in the next few days, this week’s BludgerTrack reading is the last for the year, and it finds no indication that the rapid momentum away from the Coalition is tapering off. Indeed, the current output of the model has the Coalition in a worse position than at the height of the budget backlash, when Labor’s two-party vote peaked at 53.8%. Now it’s at 54.2%, following a 0.3% shift since last week that has also delivered seats in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia on the seat projection. Palmer United is also showing no signs of bottoming out, a remorseless downward trend since the mid-year Senate changeover having sent it from 6.3% to 2.3%.

A new set of leadership ratings from Newspoll this week knocks the froth off a recent improvement for Bill Shorten, and in doing so reverts his trendline to its remarkable picture of stability throughout the year, interrupted only by some particularly strong ratings in the immediate aftermath of the budget. Tony Abbott’s net rating slips slightly further, but this is due to the momentum of the trend rather than the effect of Newspoll, which was no worse for him than last fortnight’s. Newspoll also suggests the surge to Shorten on preferred prime minister is levelling off, albeit that he retains what from Abbott’s perspective is an alarmingly big lead by the normal standards of an Opposition Leader.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,672 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor”

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  3. [@leighsales: It’s so tempting to open 7.30 tonight with “Welcome to the program, I’m Waleed Aly.””]
    Why would she even feel the need to say that?

  4. I don’t think Alan Jones will go down too well in Melbourne, Bemused. Mitchell might be peak Tory. Mind you the city gave the world Andrew Bolt, so never know.

  6. I just wish one journalist would ask this one question of Senator Leyonhjelm :

    “Senator Leyonhjelm, do you believe Australia’s gun laws should be relaxed so that visitors, parliamentarians and other workers could carry concealed guns into Parliament House in Canberra?”

  7. Too bad we can’t find out the statistics of how many people who read the Herald Sun actually skips the Bolt column and go right to the sports pages.

  8. sohar@304

    I don’t think Alan Jones will go down too well in Melbourne, Bemused. Mitchell might be peak Tory. Mind you the city gave the world Andrew Bolt, so never know.

    They tried relaying Jones and his fellow 2GB loons to Melbourne on 3MTR and it rated so low they shut it down.

    If they insert much of that stuff in 3AW, which is already loony enough, it will probably go the same way.

  10. Raaraa@307

    Too bad we can’t find out the statistics of how many people who read the Herald Sun actually skips the Bolt column and go right to the sports pages.

    I long ago passed a comment to a friend that, if you wanted to start a new newspaper in Melbourne to take on the Herald Sun, all you needed to do was put the sport at the front and you would thrash them.

  14. I never understood the attraction of the sort of feral talkback radio we have in Sydney. I wouldn’t like angry voices bellowing over the radio as I had breakfast or drove to work even if they were saying stuff I agreed with, especially if I thought they were trying to push hot buttons to manipule me. There must be a lot of sad, angry people in Sydney who have a need to hear their fears, hatreds and prejudices articulted by professional wordsmiths.

  15. sohar

    I seem to recall a TV show called “Alan Jones Live” some years ago, and it was so appalling that the only interest was someone who was running a book on which exact day it would be “Alan Jone No Longer Live” – ie when the show was cancelled.

  16. sohar@313

    Bemused,
    Given what you tell me, I think we should start a petition to get 3AW to BROADCAST ALAN JONES NOW!!

    Only problem is, where would the 3AW audience go?

    When 3MTR had to compete with 3AW it went nowhere, but if it was rolled into 3AW and there was no alternative for that audience, the outcome would not be as predictable as I previously suggested.

    But one can hope. 👿

  21. NathanA

    [Do those gun deaths include suicides? ]

    I doubt it. I also doubt they include murders that result from domestic violence involving a firearm.

    In the US, it was found that having a firearm in the house dramatically increased the incidences of death by suicide and by domestic violence. I can’t recall the exact stats, but the study was carried out by the CDC.

  22. Alan Jones is notorious for having quoted a character in a Frederick Forsyth novel as an expert on international oil politics. That lost him his column on Sydney’s Sun Herald (no relation to the Herald Sun).

    There have been numerous other controversies, including “cash for comment”. In the face of that, one woukd have thought his career would have ‘died of shame’, but to Alan Jones it was all water off a duck’s back. His legion of fans either didn’t know, didn’t care or thought it was some sort of leftist plot against their idol.

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cash_for_comment_affair

  23. Rocket Rocket

    There was a QI episode where the Swiss gun myth came up and was smacked down by Fry so that crap must be spread far and wide.

  24. poroti

    [Gun deaths per 100,000

    Homicide
    Aus 0.11
    Switz 0.52]

    Yes, many of those gun deaths in Switzerland are probably just a domestic dispute that turned deadly. The wife was shot by an enraged husband, who grabbed his gun in a fit of rage. So those particular homicides don’t count. 😛

  29. Leyonhjelm wouldn’t be feeling the love if he looked at the adelaidenow blog about his “give everyone a gun to make us safer” idea. The comments have to be running 90-10 against him.

    If anything, we’ll get tighter gun laws after this.

  30. [ @leighsales: It’s so tempting to open 7.30 tonight with “Welcome to the program, I’m Waleed Aly.”” ]

    Better still let Waleed Aly front 7:30 and introduce himself as Leigh Sales. 🙂

  31. briefly – 327 – I am just waiting to see what the Victorian Liberal Party (and Coalition if there continues to be one) will have as their policy “going forward” on the Cemetery Tunnel.

    If they support something which seems as dead as a deceased parrot they are going to look pretty stupid . (aside from having to explain how it’s going to be paid for).

    And if they finally dump it, how are they going to explain away how it was the most crucial infrastructure to Victoria’s future.

    Also – I see they are already saying “I’ll not ride with Tony” on the whole “giving back all the money to the Feds” thing!

  32. [ If anything, we’ll get tighter gun laws after this. ]

    Maybe, but only because the Govt will want to be seen to be doing something. We don’t need more laws about guns or terrorism. We just need to enforce the ones we have and be mature enough to accept that laws cant make us absolutely safe from nut jobbies on the rampage.

  33. [poroti
    Posted Thursday, December 18, 2014 at 5:05 pm | Permalink

    Coming to a WA gas field soon. It’s big. How big ?]

    A. Big enough not to have to bother with Indigenous land rights.

  35. 324

    Family violence turning into homicides because of the presence of guns are one of the primary problems reduced by tighter gun control. They certainly do count.

  37. [ Better still let Waleed Aly front 7:30 and introduce himself as Leigh Sales. ]

    Yep. If only to make the RWNJ’s go berserk.

    Sarah Ferguson remains the standard to beat.

  39. [ Maybe, but only because the Govt will want to be seen to be doing something.]

    It reeked to me of abbott trying imitate howard. Again.

    The problem appears to be in the black market area and probably imports where a few parts at a time were being posted in from overseas at one stage – pistols etc that is.

    Plus those seized from security companies in holdups and the like.

  41. [ Coming to a WA gas field soon. It’s big. How big ?]

    Wonder what price they expect to sell the product for.

    OK commodity prices fluctuate etc but development costs are generally eye watering and involve long time frames.

    Where will the rest of the world be with renewables in 10-15-20 years?

    China is already trying to onsell/ off load contracts they have to take Australian LNG.

  43. Years ago I saw a graffito:

    The Herald – for those who can’t think. The Sun – for those who can’t read. Then they merged and the old Herald was submerged.

  44. [ Should we look for the non-definitive databases in the fiction section of the AFP library? ]

    Make sure its in the *written in Blood* section.

    AFP 101 – On how to destroy its own credibility in one easy lesson.

    Maybe having abbott use their Canberra accommodation is rubbing off.

    But still they want more surveillance powers.

  45. I just had to post this. Bad management decision.

    [Siege reveals cost of ABC cuts

    The ABC’s audience wouldn’t have heard of Jennifer Evans but she was the assistant chief of staff in the Sydney newsroom for many years, a highly skilled job in which she coordinated and organised dozens of crews, journalistic assignments and reporters on any given day. But on Monday, when the biggest news story in recent history – the siege in the Lindt cafe – broke in the heart of Sydney Evans wasn’t there because her position had been made redundant. The restructure of ABC
    news after the Coalition’s $254m budget cut led to the position of assistant chief of staff disappearing. Sources say the ABC newsroom was in chaos on Monday as news executives scrambled to coordinate the rolling coverage across platforms without her expertise, leading to tempers flaring.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/dec/18/weekly-beast-sydney-siege-shows-cost-of-abc-cuts-and-fairfax-confused-about-waleed-aly

  46. [Sources say the ABC newsroom was in chaos on Monday as news executives scrambled to coordinate the rolling coverage across platforms without her expertise, leading to tempers flaring.]

    Which outcome is exactly the sort that Abbott wants, to render dysfunctional and discredit the ABC as much as possible.

  48. Crikey had a nice idea today to do end of year Haikus. I liked this one.

    Brandis Interview:

    Caught in his own web,
    George shows just how hard it is
    to retain data.

    It inspired me to try one for Abbott’s Annus Typicalis:

    The PM’s Popularity

    After the budget
    His stocks can fall no further
    And yet they do.

  49. The sacking of back office staff often results in undesirable events, front line staff do not know what they should be doing, and things that should be checked and coordinated are not.

    Not too much to worry about at a media co. Huge problem in a Hospital.

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