Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The final Newspoll of the year is consistent with an overall trend that gives the government a lot to think about over the summer break.

What will presumably be the last Newspoll of the year records no change on a fortnight ago, with Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46. Labor grabs the lead on the primary vote, moving up two points to 39% with the Coalition up one to 38% and the Greens down one to 12%. For the first time in a while, Tony Abbott’s personal ratings are not appreciably worse than last time, his approval steady at 33% and disapproval up one to 58%. Bill Shorten is respectively down two to 37% and steady at 43%, and the size of his lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged, being 43-36 last time and 44-37 this time.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,550 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. It should be a national embarassment that Man Maron Monis was given refugee status because he feared persecution and this is how he repays us???

    And he posted this on his now defunct facebook page,

    “Islam is a religion of peace” Really???

  2. Praise be that Action Man didn’t take up the invitation to talk with the deluded ideologue, or he’d probably have gotten a bravery award (a la Lindsay Thompson – Faraday kidnapping 1972) and we’d never get rid of the brave, fearless, heroic leader.

    OTOH, Why TF didn’t he?

  3. Tom Hawkins@1297. Assuming you meant “offering” rather than “being offered”: yes he was.

    The lawyer said that Monis was treated so badly in prison that, once he lost his appeal to the High Court (which I assumed meant that he was going back to gaol) he probably “felt he had nothing to lose”.

    That sounds like an excuse to me.

    My hypothesis about Monis was he was an egotistical, self-obsessed psychopath who felt that the whole universe existed to serve his personal needs, and who used Islam and his bogus claim to be a cleric (and BTW, Daily Telegraph, there are no such things as clerics in IS-style Islam) to fuel his warped sense of moral superiority over the rest of humanity.

    Maybe I’m being unfair, but I reckon I’m closer to the mark than his lawyer.

  4. briefly:

    It isn’t just Chris Murphy:

    [Natasha Robinson @NC_Robinson · 2h 2 hours ago
    In 2009 I covered Haron in court. Then, he presented as a ranting extremist, insane in his views but not unwell. A scary combination]

  5. I did a short post on Monis’ case in the High Court the judgment for which was delivered on 27 February 2013.

    The issue was whether the sending of the letters to bereaved families of soldiers was a crime under the Cth criminal code.

    The unusual features of the judgment was the 3-3 split of HC judges and the fact it was all male judges versus all female judges.

    I suppose it is cruel irony that one of Monis’ barristers in the High Court was from the same small set of chambers as Katrina Dawson.

  6. Anyway, Monis is dead, so why does his lawyer feel the need to go in defending him. The lawyer is also continuing to state that Monis was undoubtedly a cleric, something that many in the Muslim community are disputing. Anyway, he couldn’t be simultaneously a Rafidi cleric and an IS activist, so he must have in some sense renounced his clerical status (which I strongly suspect was bogus anyway).

  7. I usually support Gittins, but I’m in two minds about this praise of Joe. I suppose it’s my own prejudice coming through.

    [The fact that the public and the Senate judged many of the specific spending measures Hockey proposed to be unfair shouldn’t cloud the truth that, in its long-delayed dampening effect on the economy, Hockey was acting with commendable judgment and restraint.

    So, whatever his failings as a judge of fairness or as a salesman, as a manager of the economy Hockey has proved much wiser in government than he seemed likely to be when in opposition.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/myefo-news-not-as-bad-as-it-seems-20141215-127ok7.html#ixzz3M14aqKMo

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/myefo-news-not-as-bad-as-it-seems-20141215-127ok7.html

  8. ……the left seems to think that it’s reassuring that so many Islamic terrorists do *not* have connections to “extremist groups”

    great words from Ace of SpadesHQ

  9. briefly

    [I can’t help wondering why Murphy has posted anything at all.]

    The file footage has Murphy and Adam Houda coming out of the Downing Centre with him and it has been played over and over.

  10. PS Miranda once wrote an article stating (I kid you not: I kept a clipping because I found it so extraordinary) which literally said that all Australians knew that Schappelle Corby was innocent because she was so beautiful.

  11. [I suppose it is cruel irony that one of Monis’ barristers in the High Court was from the same small set of chambers as Katrina Dawson.]

    REading that I’ve just gotten goose bumps.

  12. mb:

    I recall many others taking that similar viewpoint, and that colouring most of the media coverage of her trial. She was young and attractive, therefore she couldn’t possibly have tried to smuggle dope into Indonesia.

  13. Heard on the news this morning that the Lindt Company is happy to see the siege end and they will do anything to help out the families of those involved and those who died.

  14. [1130
    sprocket_

    Prominent Sydney Lawyer Chris Murphy posted this comment just now.]

    Why would Murphy want to publish anything at all? Why does Murphy think the back story of his contact with and feelings about this madman should be published?

    I do not get this at all. Is it another example of overtly public grieving? Time was, grief was a private matter. But not any more it seems. Grief is to be published. This is having the terribly unfortunate effect of making grief an at least partly competitive display. This is wildly disorientating. The funeral procession for Hughes, for example, was applauded by onlookers. To me, this signifies a really deep confusion about how to respond to bereavement.

    Grief is no longer about a retreat to privacy and peace. Grief has become a socially-mediated emotional experience, like everything else. Because it’s social, it’s now also unmistakeably trade-able, as the Hughes episode amply demonstrates.

    How weird is that. I for one cannot stand it.

  15. [That sounds like an excuse to me. ]

    Yes but the lawyer was say that was the killers excuse not the lawyer’s excuse for his actions.

  16. In the Victorian Legislative Council:

    Liberals lost 2 seats to the Shooters and Fishers, 1 to the Sex Party and 1 to the DLP
    Labor lost 2 seats to the Greens
    Nationals lost 1 seat to Vote 1 Local Jobs.

  17. briefly
    [Why would Murphy want to publish anything at all? Why does Murphy think the back story of his contact with and feelings about this madman should be published?]

    Because, yesterday Chris Murphy tweeted a pic of the bloke and asked if anyone could identify him?

    Once he was identified, Murphy received a barrage of shit because he’d once taken instructions from the idiot regarding bail conditions – and I guess he was feeling a tad mortified.

  18. DF

    [“Islam is a religion of peace” Really???]

    Yeah, really. Have you ever met a Muslim? Or are your only encounters with Muslims via the pages of the Daily Telegraph?

  19. I read Chris Murphy’s post as an explanation of his past contact with him, and a desire to be disassociated with the man. Perfectly understandable.

  20. briefly@1321. What a bizarre comment! There is so much in the media coverage of the event that gets my goat: interviews with bogans who were in the vicinity and saw nothing and with so-called experts (from a bewildering array of “security consultant” firms) who have nothing interesting to say.

    Murphy did work for the bloke, witnessed at first hand his deranged behaviour, and you think he’s not entitled to speak about it publicly? I’m afraid you’ve lost me there.

  21. Wise words from Jim Treacher,

    “If you didn’t wait until the latest Islamic hostage crisis was over to declare Muslims the victims, #illridewithyou to pick up your meds.”

  22. A counterterrorism expert [whose name escapes me] has said this gunman was a prime candidate that ought to have been monitored. He was well known to police. His website obviously showed what his mind set was, and he has a history of violence.

  23. [1325
    kezza2

    briefly

    Why would Murphy want to publish anything at all? Why does Murphy think the back story of his contact with and feelings about this madman should be published?

    Because, yesterday Chris Murphy tweeted a pic of the bloke and asked if anyone could identify him?]

    Since Murphy already must have known who he was, why did he invite others to identify him? What was he thinking?

    Murphy invited himself in to a terrible tragedy. What a F-wit.

  24. MB:
    Re: the former lawyer

    I think the lawyers comments about Monis’ state of mind was about painting him as unhinged and with nothing to lose to explain rather than excuse his behaviour i.e. work of an unhinged individual rather than some terrorist plot

  25. [Anyway, Monis is dead, so why does his lawyer feel the need to go in defending him.]

    When I heard his lawyer make those comments it seemed he was trying to make an effort to downplay potential fear and hysteria by making the point that Monis was acting alone and not connected or associated with other groups of potential terrorists, nor motivated by what we would assume were terrorist motivations. That seems a reasonable thing to do imo.

  26. billie

    Faint praise for Hockey “it could have been worse”? I think he’s making the economy worse anyway. At least three financial commentators have criticised him today for his ideological blindness.

  27. [1328
    meher baba]

    Your comments tend to further illustrate my point, mb. Shock – even death and its aftermath – are no longer private domains. They are wholly public experiences and are freely traded in both monetary and non-monetary senses. I am appalled by every bit of it.

  28. [Do0n’t just boycott the DT, Boycott the Herald-Scum, the Australian, The Courier Mail, Advertiser, every Murdoch publication in Australia, including Fox-tel.
    Hit the Dirty little digger where it hurts him most.]

    Have done since 1 April 1995, never had a second of regret.

  29. [Murphy invited himself in to a terrible tragedy. What a F-wit.]

    I think Murphy already felt connected to the tragedy and possibly felt the need to justify helping get this guy bail. he probably felt the way most Muslims do when this sort of shit happens – that he needed to do something to personally distance himself from Monis. Given the climate in Australia at the moment that makes sense to me.

  30. kakuru@1336. Have you read the Koran? I have read it (albeit in translation, which my Muslim friends have told me loses a lot of its nuances and makes it seem harsher than in Arabic) and I found it deeply disturbing and full of hatred for non-believers: just as are certain parts of the Bible (eg, Joshua, Daniel, Revelations).

    Religion is generally a pretty nasty business, and fundamentalist Sunni Islam is just about the nastiest going around at the moment. And it’s disturbingly mainstream in many Sunni communities around the world these days, backed by a lot of money from the Arabian peninsula.

    But I accept that radical Islam played only a very tangential – even inconsequential part in the events of the past two days. Monis was pretty clearly more of a Martin Bryant-type than a genuine terrorist.

  31. Desert Fox@1330

    Wise words from Jim Treacher,

    “If you didn’t wait until the latest Islamic hostage crisis was over to declare Muslims the victims, #illridewithyou to pick up your meds.”

    That is a terribly racist sentiment to post.

  32. bemused –

    What is a personality disorder if not a mental illness?

    Of course there is debate about classifications etc, but as you say personality disorders have been largely impossible to treat (management is possible to limit negative outcomes, but treatment is generally ineffective as far as I’m aware) – unlike depression or schizophrenia or bipolar, which are all generally quite treatable now – and I think from a legal point of view personality disorders don’t generally rise to the level of diminishing responsibility or (in themselves) being a reason to detain someone in psychiatric care.

    I haven’t seen anyone who is in a position to know state that this guy was mentally ill, and there is a lot of jumping to conclusions here based on the fact that he did a lot of antisocial things, and was implicated in various crimes.

  33. DF

    [Wise words from Jim Treacher,

    “If you didn’t wait until the latest Islamic hostage crisis was over to declare Muslims the victims, #illridewithyou to pick up your meds.”]

    “Jim Treacher” (real name Sean Medlock) is a professional right-wing troll.

  34. ratsak@1340

    Do0n’t just boycott the DT, Boycott the Herald-Scum, the Australian, The Courier Mail, Advertiser, every Murdoch publication in Australia, including Fox-tel.
    Hit the Dirty little digger where it hurts him most.


    Have done since 1 April 1995, never had a second of regret.

    Is there any significance in that particular date ?

  35. [1164
    JimmyDoyle

    For what it’s worth I think the NSW Police did a good job, and did the best they could given the circumstances.]

    The full story remains to be told, but beyond that it is hard to be too critical of various authorities (police, child protection, parole boards, etc,) having to make extremely difficult calls in highly opaque circumstances, with potentially tragic outcomes either way.

    The authorities are damned if they do and damned if they don’t. I don’t envy them their task, and wish they would get a lot more material and moral support.

    Condolences to the families and friends of the victims. 🙁

  36. [Since Murphy already must have known who he was, why did he invite others to identify him? What was he thinking?

    Murphy invited himself in to a terrible tragedy. What a F-wit.]

    Murphy didn’t know who he was. He was trying to help because he had lots of contacts in the Muslim community.

    He’d seen him for 10 minutes, 7 years ago – and the guy had apparently changed considerably in that time.

  37. And what did the Tele get wrong ratsak?

    Monis demands an ISIS flag but it’s nothing to do with ISIS? He made it abundantly clear it was EVERYTHING to do with ISIS.

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