BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

On nearly every measure going, the latest readings of the BludgerTrack polling aggregate find the Coalition doing fully as badly as it was after the budget.

Driven mostly by a dreadful result from top-tier pollster Galaxy, the Coalition suffers another substantial downturn in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, to the extent of returning to the worst depths of the post-budget slump. The change compared with last week’s reading amounts to a clear 1% transfer on the primary vote from the Coalition to Labor, translating into a gain of five for Labor on the seat projection including two seats in Queensland and one each in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. With new figures added from Ipsos and Essential Research, the leadership ratings show Tony Abbott continuing to plummet, while Bill Shorten matching his post-budget figures on both net approval and preferred prime minister. Abbott hasn’t quite reached his lowest ebb on net approval, but he’ll get there in very short order if the present trend continues.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,049 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

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  1. MartinB

    [Reckon? On replay maybe. It looked and sounded like a little tickle. The ball certainly was very close to the edge.]

    It looked at least a ball width, maybe 100mm wide of the gloves to me. Not a hard one.

  2. [ Abbott has to do something as a circuit breaker. ]

    I know! They can announce some more PS job losses, and cuts to services and increases in taxes!! That will take peoples minds of internal party ructions!

    Jo Ho Ho MYEFO to the rescue. 🙂

  3. Abbott seriously needs to do something different.

    Clean out the ministry, actually change some policies.

    Otherwise he is truly forked.

  4. Darren Laver

    [Abbott seriously needs to do something different.

    Clean out the ministry, actually change some policies.

    Otherwise he is truly forked.]

    Haha.. there is no ned to replace Abbott.. He is truly fucked regardless … lol

  5. [1543
    JimmyDoyle

    briefly – I wonder if as Dio implies this is the beginning of explicit Liberal leadersh*t?]

    The leadership has been the theme ever since Bishop let it be known she had taken on Abbott (and therefore Credlin) in cabinet and had rolled him. He was rolled by Hockey and Dutton too in relation to the $7 co-payment. He has also had to retreat on his PPL. Notably, Cormann and Hockey are running on further cuts. I think he’s done for. He can no longer impose himself on his hand-picked executive committee, the cabinet. He needs them more than they need him, which means he is finished. He no longer holds power.

  6. [1544
    Diogenes

    Entsch is basically saying either Credlin or Loughnane has to go.]

    Abbott has already let it be known that without Credlin he sees no future for his leadership. Effectively, by calling for Credlin to go, Entsch is calling Abbott’s bluff. Of course, Abbott cannot dismiss Credlin without also surrendering what remains of his personal standing. Entsch has used News Corp and the formal processes of the Liberal Party to call Abbott’s leadership into question.

  7. If Bishop is able to depose Abbott, she will immediately have to decide what to do about the economy and the budget. The orthodoxy among WA Liberals would be to attempt to cut the deficit by cutting spending. The original “dry” in the Federal Liberal Party was John Hyde, some-time member for Moore:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Hyde_%28Australian_federal_politician%29

    As a result of their “dry” thinking, WA Liberals will use any excuse to cut spending rather than to increase taxes or repeal tax concessions. Abbott has been bad enough for the economy already. Bishop could prove to be much worse.

  8. For a further example of Abbott’s weakness, one need only think of David Johnston’s “canoe”. Rather than reproach or even demote Johnston for his remarks, Abbott found it suited his purposes to defend or excuse him. The result was the loss of Fisher. Abbott clearly doesn’t feel strong enough to discipline a dopey Minister. This is a Government that has gone soft in the middle.

  11. briefly – you raise an excellent point that Abbott explicitly linked his own position with that of Credlin, thus making any challenge to Credlin’s position a challenge to his own. Entsch is playing an interesting game here. Would love to know who he’s acting on behalf of.

  12. briefly – you raise an excellent point that Abbott explicitly linked his own position with that of Credlin, thus making any challenge to Credlin’s position a challenge to his own. Entsch is playing an interesting game here. Would love to know who he’s acting on behalf of.

  16. Andrew Robb is now on tour with Julie Bishop. While Robb was sent by Abbott to keep an eye on Bishop, it may be they will return from Lima with a plan. Robb, after all, is a notoriously ruthless operator. The plan will boil down to a demand that Abbott resign, to be replaced by Bishop as PM. Robb would become Deputy Leader and, as king-maker yet again, will have a hand in picking a new Cabinet.

    Abbott will be offered a choice – resign and become Foreign Minster – or fight, lose and be cast to the backbench and complete ignominy.

  17. [1562
    JimmyDoyle

    briefly – you raise an excellent point that Abbott explicitly linked his own position with that of Credlin, thus making any challenge to Credlin’s position a challenge to his own. Entsch is playing an interesting game here. Would love to know who he’s acting on behalf of.]

    Entsch will be acting with the knowledge of Bishop and whoever is aligning themselves with her, including, most likely, John Howard. Howard has been publicly critical of Abbott – a stance that opens the way for other Liberals to also challenge Abbott.

    Robb and Howard have always been close. Interestingly, Howard’s former adviser, Tony Nutt, is now Director of the NSW Liberal Party and will be in a position to influence NSW MPs.

    If these figures and some of the stronger Ministers decide Abbott has had his chips, he will be gone in no time.

  18. one comment from the Australian’s Editorial today Loon Pond take it apart today.

    After 15months in the big chair , the chief too is finding his feet

    This is a mixed metaphor from The Australian. There is no vivid relation between chairs and feet. Chairs and arses, yes. They could have written:
    After 15 months in the big chair the chief still cannot find his arse, even with both hands, a flashlight and a map.

    They could also have gone with swivelling aimlessly or falling backwards.

  23. I don’t want to steal BK’s thunder but the overnight news is
    #blockedbybishop is the biggest trend on twitter &

    Warren entch reporting Credlin/Abbott/mLounghnane to the whip’s office in the terror.

  24. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    The big banks cry foul over our constitution working as it should.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banks-sound-budget-alert-stalled-budget-hurting-economy-20141213-125ysq.html
    Expensive private schools get outdone by public schools. And that’s despite their hand picking of students.
    4http://www.smh.com.au/national/education/public-schools-beat-private-rivals-in-hsc-comparison-20141213-125kmu.html
    Peter FitzSimons’ weekend column. JWH chokes on his Gough medicine.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/peter-fitzsimons-propaganda-torture-and-the-gp-copayment-20141213-126dei.html
    Warren Entsch tells Abbot to pull his head in.
    http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-national/liberal-mp-warns-abbott-to-be-careful-20141214-3mioa.html
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/liberal-mp-lodges-formal-complaint-against-pm-over-claims-critics-of-his-office-are-sexists/story-e6frea6u-1227155174132
    Where is this government taking us? More APS outsourcing to come?
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/unions-warns-of-public-service-impact-from-government-outsourcing-20141213-126dpt.html
    Cry-baby Chris Kenny at his “best”.
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/opinion/chris-kenny-yes-a-flawed-electoral-system-has-hurt-sa-libs-but-its-time-to-replace-older-mps/story-fni6unxq-1227154999255
    A former Justice of the Family Court tells us that stopping the boats is not the answer and that our position on refugees is dispicable.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/australias-position-on-refugees-is-despicable-20141213-124abc.html
    Despite finding the link between celibacy and child sexual abuse the Catholic Church will sit on its hands.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/dec/13/no-plans-for-catholic-church-to-end-celibacy-vow-says-francis-sullivan
    The three worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/12/13/the-three-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-136-2/

  25. Section 2 . . .

    Annabel Crabb gives us Abbott’s Christmas regifting.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/will-tony-abbotts-christmas-regifting-run-into-festive-minefield-20141213-125wwp.html
    It’s possible that Michael Clarke’s cricket playing career is over.
    http://www.smh.com.au/sport/cricket/michael-clarkes-career-in-doubt-after-latest-hamstring-injury-20141213-126j6a.html
    The Nats and the Liberals are potentially on a collision course over unviable farms.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/barnaby-joyce-collides-with-coalition-cabinet-colleagues-over-drought-assistance-20141213-126h5x.html
    Peter Martin analyses job market myths.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/busting-labour-market-myths-why-your-job-is-far-more-secure-than-you-think-20141213-125ggs.html
    John Falzon on how this government refuses to countenance redistributive taxation measures.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/do-they-know-its-christmas-20141213-125×97.html
    Labor reminds Hockey of what he disparagingly said about Wayne Swan as he encounters “budget headwinds”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labor-takes-aim-at-hockeys-familiar-budget-headwinds-20141213-126fx6.html
    There’s bound to be an ideological bent to the selection of the 175 agencies to be disbanded.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/questions-raised-about-savings-from-axing-175-government-agencies-20141213-126ht5.html
    A long article on the rise and future of Bill Shorten.
    http://www.smh.com.au/good-weekend/eyes-on-the-prize-wouldbe-pm-bill-shorten-20141212-11xjqv.html
    There’s no doubt about it. This Tea Party government of our sis setting out to destroy the fabric of Medicare and take us towards the execrable US health system.
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/100-gp-fees–in-two-years-20141213-126ez7.html

  27. Entsch:

    “Almost every bloody headline is coming out of [Abbott’s] mouth, whether it’s shirt-front or whatever.

    “If he thinks so lowly of us that our legitimate concern in the way his office is run is trivialised to suggest we are sexist is just mind boggling.’

    Entsch looks like being another political victim, sacrificed to make Abbott look tall.

    Well… they elected a psychopath as leader, and they used to reckon that was just fine. So they can stew in their own juices.

  28. [“@vanOnselenP: Wow…Piers Akerman is calling on Peta Credlin to step down!”]

    Because he’s too gutless to call on her boss to do the same.

  30. Never had any time for Peta, but she seems to be upsetting so many Liberal supporters/politicians at the moment (Fairfax, Bishop, Piers, etc.) I think she should stay put.

  31. In the 150 agency cuts are cuts to veterans support agencies. Not a good look and will guarantee Senator Lambie will continue to vote no in the Senate.

    This mob seems to just not have any brains at all.

  33. CTar1

    In related news 🙂

    [Cat Eats $1,000 Worth of Seafood at Russian Gift Shop]

    ….video taken at Russia’s Vladivostok international airport revealed the culprit behind about $1,000 worth of stolen or damaged seafood from a shop there: A stray cat.

    The video, taken by an airport staffer, showed the red furry cat sampling a variety of expensive seafood ]
    http://www.voanews.com/content/cat-eats-1-thousand-worth-of-seafood-at-russian-airport-gift-shop/2556434.html

  34. CTar1

    In related news 🙂

    [Cat Eats $1,000 Worth of Seafood at Russian Gift Shop]

    ….video taken at Russia’s Vladivostok international airport revealed the culprit behind about $1,000 worth of stolen or damaged seafood from a shop there: A stray cat.

    The video, taken by an airport staffer, showed the red furry cat sampling a variety of expensive seafood ]
    http://www.voanews.com/content/cat-eats-1-thousand-worth-of-seafood-at-russian-airport-gift-shop/2556434.html

  35. Morning all.

    A blast from the past:

    [Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk · 16h 16 hours ago
    Joe Hockey 2012: “we will achieve a surplus in our first year in office and we will achieve a surplus for every year of our first term.”]

  36. I don’t understand why all the hostility towards Credlin and calls for her to step down. She’s worked wonders with Abbott in the years she’s been with him.

  38. fess,

    15 months of Government chaos, a Budget that can’t pass, ten points behind in the polls and Group of stunned rabbits governing on ideological clichés has a few of the Libs concerned about their future.

    Someone has to be blamed. So, it has to be the woman.

  41. GG:

    This is true. But I cannot see things improving if Abbott is cast adrift from the one person who’s been able to rein in his runaway mouth and keep him focused. In fact things may even get worse!

  42. I cannot understand the eagerness of some to see Abbott dumped.

    He would be replaced by Bishop who will get a ‘dream’ run from Fairfax, Newscorp et al.

    That will be difficult for Labor to manage.

    Leave Abbott where he is and see him suffer.

  44. fess,

    They could formalise the arrangement and make Credlin PM or wait until Abbott becomes politically terminal.

    At the moment, the Libs are playing a Micawberish game (something will turn up) in the hope they can restore their political ascendancy.

  46. Without wanting to promote a scare campaign of $100 GP visits, this was the tactic used by Barnyard and others to claim the ‘Carbon Tax’ would lead to $100 lamb roasts. Karma may be biting a certain political party on the bum.

    [The average upfront cost of a 15-minute consultation with a GP could exceed $100 within two years under the federal government’s proposed changes to Medicare, the Doctors Reform Society says.

    The society, a lobby group that supports publicly funded universal health care, says the Abbott government’s plan to reduce the Medicare rebate for doctors by $5 and freeze it until 2018 is promoting a “return to a failed privatised system of the past” with doctors free to charge what the market will bear.

    Society national president and GP Con Costa said extending the current two-year-long freeze on Medicare rebates for another four years would hit GP clinics’ budgets hard, driving many doctors away from bulk-billing and into increasing their fees for patients who do not have concession cards.]

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/100-gp-fees–in-two-years-20141213-126ez7.html

  47. Morning all.
    [Abbott has to do something as a circuit breaker.]
    How about he resigns? The resultant nation-wide partying will stimulate retail sales in the liquor and hospitality sectors, and finally get the economy moving.

  48. Feeney

    Absolutely agree.

    Not sure WHY Labor people want to encourage Abbott to go. He is Labor’s best friend.

    Mind you I think it is too late now and Abbott is history

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