BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

On nearly every measure going, the latest readings of the BludgerTrack polling aggregate find the Coalition doing fully as badly as it was after the budget.

Driven mostly by a dreadful result from top-tier pollster Galaxy, the Coalition suffers another substantial downturn in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, to the extent of returning to the worst depths of the post-budget slump. The change compared with last week’s reading amounts to a clear 1% transfer on the primary vote from the Coalition to Labor, translating into a gain of five for Labor on the seat projection including two seats in Queensland and one each in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. With new figures added from Ipsos and Essential Research, the leadership ratings show Tony Abbott continuing to plummet, while Bill Shorten matching his post-budget figures on both net approval and preferred prime minister. Abbott hasn’t quite reached his lowest ebb on net approval, but he’ll get there in very short order if the present trend continues.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,049 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

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  1. It’s interesting to see the PV shift is basically 1:1 from the coalition to Labor. The 2PP indicated now exceeds even that received by Bob Hawke in the 1983 election. Ordinarily, we might expect the 2PP trends to re-converge, but these are not ordinary times. The slump in Abbott’s personal support could still get much worse, taking the coalition 2PP vote with it.

  2. Another year of the same and it will be 60-40. Indeed I’m surprised it’s not there now with the deceit oozing from everything the LNP has to offer. Australians don’t like liars and they despise sneaks.
    Labor must now seize control of the narrative and drive it home. Not through policy alone but with an encompassing ideological blueprint that defines a better, fairer and more prosperous nation in which we can all share. This is what we need… a light in darkness we can all follow and understand where it leads. A better way. A fairer way. A united nation. There has never been a better time.

  3. Falling energy prices will be good and bad for Australia. Good because it will put downward pressure on the price of (mostly imported) auto fuels. Bad because it will weaken the terms-of-trade; negatively affect both real and nominal exports; tend to accentuate pressure on the currency and push down real disposable incomes.

    All in, sustained falls in energy prices will be negative for both national income and output, putting further pressure on employment, household incomes, the budget and on the coalition’s policy choices while adding to expectations of further reductions in interest rates.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-10/opec-says-2015-demand-for-its-crude-will-be-weakest-in-12-years.html

    [Saudi Arabia’s oil minister gave no sign the world’s largest exporter will cut output on a day when OPEC said demand for its crude is heading for the lowest since 2003 and global prices fell below $65 a barrel for the first time in five years.

    “Why should I cut production?” Ali Al-Naimi said in response to reporters’ questions today in Lima, where he’s attending United Nations climate talks. “This is a market and I’m selling in a market. Why should I cut?”

    The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries earlier cut the forecast for how much crude it will need to produce in 2015 by about 300,000 barrels a day to 28.9 million a day, the least 12 years. The group’s three largest members, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait, are offering oil to Asian buyers at the deepest discounts in at least six years. Prices may remain at current levels for the next six months, a Kuwaiti official said.

    Brent crude, the international benchmark, plunged as much as 4.9 percent to $63.56 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange in London. That’s the lowest since July 2009. An Iranian official warned yesterday prices could drop to $40 a barrel should OPEC’s unity break down.]

  5. http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/12/oil-sickens-barnett-budget-further/

    [The WA government, which has already been grappling with the fallout from the sudden and unexpected drop in iron ore royalty income, now faces further pressure as a result of a dramatic 40 per cent-plus fall in oil prices over the past six months.

    The budget assumptions had modelled for oil to average between $US115 and $US122.70 a barrel between now and 2017-18. But the oil price has slumped towards just $US65 a barrel, a level not seen since early 2009.

    The looming shortfall in oil revenues will further complicate the government’s efforts to win back the prized AAA credit rating that it lost in August.

    Calculations by The Australian that apply current oil prices and exchange rates to the government’s forecast petroleum income results in a cumulative budget shortfall of about $877m over the next three years.]

  7. I do not yet think the population has experienced enough negative consequences for being a mob of selfish, ill-informed, WIIFMist, racist, sexist, judgmental, gutless, greedy pigs who would sell their compatriots, the disadvantaged and vulnerable, their country and their future generations down the river so they can live in an illusion of safety from some vague outsider by taking bribes in the form of reduced utility bills.

    They think that if they can force the Libs to change leader they can eat their cake and still have it.

    No let them have the full three years of what they voted for, they deserve it.

  8. WB

    [Abbott hasn’t quite reached his lowest ebb on net approval, but he’ll get there in very short order if the present trend continues.]

    I’d bet on ‘continue’. It’s now, I think, got to the point that it’s hard to imagine how he could execute a real ‘reset’.

  9. Briefly @ 4

    Yep… I also take the view that the year has exposed the entire coalition party as well. Thus gifting Labor the opportunity to bury forever some of the myths the LNP have owned since Howard and claim possession of the centre they’ve spectacularly abandoned without any thought to defending their flanks as they lurched right. Ergo not a Shorten V Abbott showdown, which to my mind misses the boat… but a Labor V LNP ideological differentiation that leaves them nowhere to go.

  12. Disclaimer,
    That was my can’t sleep, nauseous and miserable me talking at 4.50am. I am not feeling particularly forgiving.

  16. I was son Gumtree and saw something that I will find useful for my house. But my first thought was that the Coalition ministry was way overpriced.
    [Box of knobs
    $15.00 Negotiable
    Craigmore
    ]

  20. I have always had a dislike for cheerleading. not for the skills of the cheerleaders but for the sexism and exploitation that is inherent in the practice. Women get paid a pittance for giving some life and interest in a boring game with too many stoppages. too much time wasting and too many breaks to allow television stations to play adverts, while the male football players get paid big bucks for the same level of effort, training and skills as the cheerleaders.
    [

    Jiggle Tests, Dunk Tanks, and Unpaid Labor: How NFL Teams Degrade Their Cheerleaders

    NFL cheerleaders might appear to be a happy, peppy bunch, but off the sidelines their working conditions are far from cheery. On Monday, a former cheerleader for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers sued the team, claiming she was paid less than $2 per hour during her 2012-13 season of work. It was the fifth such lawsuit this year; cheerleaders for the Oakland Raiders (Raiderettes), the Cincinnati Bengals (Ben-Gals), the New York Jets (Flight Crew), and the Buffalo Bills (Jills) have filed similar suits. (In March, the Department of Labor ruled that the Raiderettes didn’t qualify for minimum-wage laws because they’re “seasonal workers.”}

    http://www.motherjones.com/media/2014/05/nfl-cheerleader-lawsuits-sexism
    ]

  21. Is Abbott a man or a mouse? Protected by Credlin, he pretends to be a strong leader.

    [Tensions between leader and deputy are a new and worrying development. And there are other points of friction such as Abbott’s strained relationship with his Treasurer, Joe Hockey. Insiders say much of the problem is that Bishop has shone while Abbott and others have struggled, prompting Credlin to want to “clip her wings”.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/cracks-emerge-over-peta-credlin-in-tony-abbotts-government-20141210-124edb.html

  22. On the speculation that Credlin may be parachuted into a “safe” Liberal seat, wouldn’t it be funny if she resigned from the role of Abbott’s COS to run in a by-election and lost.

    Now that would be funny, and given the anti-Lib sentiment in Victoria it’s not beyond the realms of possibility.

  23. Only someone entrenched in the totally out of touch group of journalists could suggest this:

    [Insiders say much of the problem is that Bishop has shone while Abbott and others have struggled]

    “Shone” – FMD.

  24. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Abbott gets some words of warning from Paul Sheehan about Peta Credlin. It all comes from within he says.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/tony-abbott-must-watch-the-peta-credlin-phenomenon-carefully-20141210-124c06.html
    Mark Kenny on the Credlin/Bishop issue.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/cracks-emerge-over-peta-credlin-in-tony-abbotts-government-20141210-124edb.html
    The AMA says the copayment will hit bulk billing. Well surprise, surprise! e effect of the limited $5 rebate cut will be dwarfed by the freeze until 2018.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/copayment-will-hit-bulk-billing-ama-predicts-20141210-124e1n.html
    A torrent of letters to the editor at SMH excoriate Abbott and the copayment.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-letters/turning-our-doctors-into-tax-collectors-20141210-1242w0.html
    Its editorial says the copayment plan is far too dangerous and should be rejected by the Senate.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/tony-abbotts-revised-gp-copayment-far-too-dangerous-20141210-1246fz.html
    The ever-unimpressive Dutton admits most Australians will pay more to see a GP but it’s a good thing.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/health-minister-peter-dutton-admits-most-australians-will-have-to-pay-more-to-see-gp-20141209-123p4c.html
    A wounded government doubles down on its war with doctors – Ben Eltham.
    https://newmatilda.com/2014/12/10/wounded-government-doubles-down-its-war-doctors
    GP copayment 2.0 – a triple whammy for patients.
    https://theconversation.com/gp-co-payment-2-0-a-triple-whammy-for-patients-35334
    The three worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/12/10/the-three-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-134/
    Time to stop the “clean coal” crap.
    https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/time-to-end-the-clean-coal-crock,7174

  25. Section 2 . . .

    What!!!!! $1.50 postage stamps?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/postage-stamp-prices-expected-to-rise-to-150-under-abbott-government-plan-20141210-124fsb.html
    Malcolm Fraser savages Morrison.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-fraser-savages-scott-morrisons-new-asylum-seeker-laws-and-senators-who-passed-them-20141210-124bp1.html
    The A380 is at the crossroads.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviation/is-this-the-beginning-of-the-end-for-the-a380-20141210-124a0c.html
    Nice try Prissy – but you’re still on the nose!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/christopher-pyne-begs-pm-tony-abbott-to-save-abc-tv-in-adelaide-20141210-124hro.html
    Abbott’s “reset” won’t work because he can’t reset himself. This is a good read.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/dec/10/tony-abbotts-reset-can-never-work-because-he-cant-reset-himself
    David Hicks heckles Brandis over torture at Human Rights function.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/david-hicks-heckles-attorneygeneral-george-brandis-at-human-rights-awards-ceremony-20141210-124h54.html
    The beloved Kevin Andrews speaks out.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/kevin-andrews-calls-on-colleagues-to-unite-20141210-124723.html
    Should the Nationals rethink their place in the Coalition?
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/bush-mail/2014/dec/10/a-country-road-should-the-nationals-rethink-their-place-in-the-coalition
    Rumblings from dissatisfied women in the Liberal Party.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/senior-female-liberals-call-on-the-party-to-boost-the-number-of-women-on-frontbenches-20141210-124jca.html
    There will be industrial action by Human Services staff today as the stoush over the 1% pay rise offer with accompanying reduction in privileges.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/human-services-public-servants-begin-industrial-campaign-over-pay-offer-20141210-124ar7.html

  27. Section 3 . . .

    Processed foods health claims exposed as being fallacious.
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/health/cancer-council-fruit-and-vegetable-claims-on-some-packaged-foods-debunked-20141210-124cfi.html
    Alan Moir takes us to Lima to see Mesma’s chaperone at work.

    Ron Tandberg on the Victorian Education Department’s slush fund excesses.

    David Pope has had a really good year. Here he is with the Christmas Scrooge.

    David Rowe has Abbott undergoing barnacle removal surgery.

  28. Morning all. Regarding William’s bludgertrack, I am not surprised that the coalition is rating as badly now as at budget time. Because the political failures recently have been broad based. It is not only economics. Social policy, foreign policy and internal discipline have all been found wanting. Bishop aside, hardly a single minister has delivered in their portfolio, unless you count Morrison blackmailing independent senators with children as “success”.

  30. Dan

    I have said before I think it is a mistake for Labor to underestimate Credlin. We may not like her, but she is smart, disciplined and media savy. She would be no token woman in parliament. It is perhaps fortunate for Labor that she and Bishop are not allies. Together they would have the potential to broaden the Liberal’s appeal in what is otherwise a very blokey and none too bright cabinet.

  31. morning all

    Me thinks All this attention on Peta Credlin is to take the focus off the Abbott. In my view, she is the reason why Abbott has made it thus far. She has overachieved in this regard. As posited by BB in the last thread, Abbott is a wrecker and what more can we expect of Credlin?

    BB’s post is here

    [663
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Thursday, December 11, 2014 at 12:00 am | PERMALINK
    Abbott used the ADF as props in his “I Am An International Statesman & Warrior” gambit to improve his polls, and now he’s using them again – claiming their nobility, bravery etc. – to argue that he couldn’t possibly give other public servants more than he’s giving the honoured ADF.

    He’s been using them to self-aggrandize himself and his cronies over boats as well.

    If the ADF doesn’t wake up to just how cynically Abbott has used and now discarded them, I’m going to start worrying about how dumb they are, and the consequences that might have for the quality of our national defence.

    You keep hearing the political journos waxing lyrical about how loyal Abbott is.

    But who has he been loyal to when the shit really hits the fan?

    Reithy, who he dudded over the Liberal Party Presidency?

    Arthur Sinodinos, who Abbott praised to high heaven, but sacked anyway?

    Joe Hockey, Abbott’s favourite punching bag over the years?

    Julie Bishop, who now apparently needs a chaperone?

    Hunt, who’s not going to Lima, even though he’s Environment Minister?

    Bernie Banton, who he accused of being impure of heart, three days before he died?

    SBY, who he assured he would not offend, and then offended him?

    The officers he had sacked after they crossed into Indonesian territorial waters… under orders?

    Educators, who he told were in no funding trouble, because he and Labor had a “unity ticket” on Gonski?

    Pensioners, who voted for him en masse, but who are now seeing the value of their pensions dwindle away?

    The ABC, who he said would suffer no cuts?

    Sick people, who he told not to worry about co-payments?

    The Australian people at large, when he told them that not only would he not lie to them, but reinforced this with homilies about honesty, and then told them they’d misunderstood him?

    This man is a psychopath. He doesn’t give a damn WHO he hurts, betrays, deceives, drops in the gutter and ultimately abandons.

    His whole schtick is to cover his mistakes and malignant mistruths with the blood and bodies of others. He’s piling up more political cadavers than Macbeth. The lower the nation as a whole, the more he thinks he is seen to be rising above it.

    There’s nothing positive about him. All he does is wreck. He’s holding the nation to ransom even now, as he used to do when he was LOTO. “My way, or the highway.”

    They say he committed and a conviction politician. I don’t think so. Not to policy anyway. If he’s committed to anything it’s himself and his scrawny hide.

    Why anyone would ever trust him again, is beyond me. If the ADF trust him, and continue to support him, they’re fools.

    But con men like Abbott rely on suckers believing that they will never be betrayed, or that they have worked out his scam. That’s when he at his most dangerous, when the mugs think they’ve sussed him.

    I really don’t know how he does it. He’s not likeable, or handsome, or even particularly bright or articulate. It’s a mystery to me.]

  32. Thanks BK for the usual comprehensive coverage. The new/old medicare co-payment rightly gets the bulk of attention. Now that the doctors have to pay it, is it not a new Tax? Certainly it is far more a tax than the carbon price Labor introduced and then got hounded for being a tax. At least the income from the carbon price went into compensation. The Doctor Tax goes straight into fixing the budget black hole. So why don’t people call it a Doctor Tax?

    Silly me. Journalists can’t call the doctor tax a tax, because Tony Abbott promised there would be no new taxes! It must be a co-payment. After all, Abbott would never lie to us.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-01/fact-file-what-tony-abbott-promised-on-tax/5420226

  34. Wow, BT is really sobering viewing for the libs.
    32 seats “lost” in a little over twelve months.
    At what point will the libs act and do something?
    I can’t see them removing Abbott short term but I can see them moving on Johnston and possibly Hockey in the new year and bringing in some more female senior figures. Long term it won’t help but short term it may staunch the bleeding somewhat.

  35. I have mentioned this previously. My GP bulk bills pensioners, health care card holders and children under 16. Everyone else pays approx $65.00 for a standard consultation and can expect a refund of approx $32.00 from Medicare. I suspect my GP will continue to charge the same, but the patient will now get $27.00 refund.

  36. victoria

    My memory tells me that bulk billing was originally meant only for the categories you describe, but broadened in some city areas to “free clinics”. The practice seems very variable.

  37. Socrates – I agree, Credlin has more political nous than most of the Coalition front bench.

    And just thinking of the Coalition attitude to scientific research generally (Climate Change Denial, CSIRO cuts) I was saddened to see that Louis Pasteur’s contribution is not always as valued as it should be these days.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/toddler-dies-four-children-seriously-ill-from-drinking-raw-cows-milk-20141210-124lx8.html

  38. Excellent to read that State and Federal MPs, from both majors, are pushing for more women in Parliament, seeing quotas as an integral part of achieving this –

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/senior-female-liberals-call-on-the-party-to-boost-the-number-of-women-on-frontbenches-20141210-124jca.html

    But how’s this for a zinger…

    The Melbourne Declaration was launched by former federal Liberal politician Sophie Mirabella and former leading Labor adviser Nicholas Reece, who are both now public policy fellows at Melbourne University.

    The declaration says the existing approach to selection and promotion of women in Australian politics was “flawed” and has “failed to achieve the full participation of women in our democracy”.

    That’d be the Sophie Mirabella who, on countless occasions, railed against quotas, not only claiming they were ineffective but using their existence to sneer at Labor women MPs, saying they were there just to fill up the numbers.

    Compare and contrast – the other Liberal MPs quoted are still in Parliament. Mirabella waited until she was outside the system to ‘come out’.

  41. Damn it, didn’t format properly – the two paragraphs starting “The Melbourne Declaration…’ and ending with ‘women in our democracy’ are quotes.

    The rest is me.

  42. Victoria 31

    Thanks for repeating BB’s post, which is useful. You get so used to the pattern of behavior from Abbott that you forget just how many separate lies he has told. For example I had forgotten about the ADF sackings after the Indonesian border breach under Operation Rubbery Borders.

  43. Rocket

    Yes, don’t get me started about research funding. Ironically the biggest losers from those cuts will be the blindly faithful rural voters who always elect LNP candidates, no matter how much their own livelihoods are threatened by climate change.

  44. Rocket Rocket

    Certainly that’s the speculation up here.

    ‘The Border Mail’ (for example) continues bashing McGowan today for renovating her offices, and includes an interview with Mirabella in that context (Mirabella doesn’t openly criticise McGowan, but an ‘unnamed former staffer’ does).

    I have always been surprised Mirabella doesn’t go for State politics. She’d be equally awful, but she was always more genuinely interested in state issues than she appeared to be in federal ones.

  45. Zoom

    Sophie is a bit like Tony. She can be very mentally flexible when she wants to be. Especially when meanings have to be bent to suit her self interest.

  46. [35
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, December 11, 2014 at 7:34 am | PERMALINK
    I have mentioned this previously. My GP bulk bills pensioners, health care card holders and children under 16. Everyone else pays approx $65.00 for a standard consultation and can expect a refund of approx $32.00 from Medicare. I suspect my GP will continue to charge the same, but the patient will now get $27.00 refund.]

    This is something I’m confused about – whether a fee paying patient will get $5 less back from Medicare. Certainly no doctor would reduce their fees just because the patient received a lower Medicare refund.

  47. Rocket

    I bet the failure of that milk was from the packaging, handling and shelf life. My farming family drank fresh, unpasteurised milk for years and stomach upsets were unknown.

  48. lizzie,

    Nothing better than fresh milk on real corn corn flakes.

    Out of interest, do cows stop producing (or substantially reduce their milk) as they get older?

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