BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

On nearly every measure going, the latest readings of the BludgerTrack polling aggregate find the Coalition doing fully as badly as it was after the budget.

Driven mostly by a dreadful result from top-tier pollster Galaxy, the Coalition suffers another substantial downturn in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, to the extent of returning to the worst depths of the post-budget slump. The change compared with last week’s reading amounts to a clear 1% transfer on the primary vote from the Coalition to Labor, translating into a gain of five for Labor on the seat projection including two seats in Queensland and one each in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. With new figures added from Ipsos and Essential Research, the leadership ratings show Tony Abbott continuing to plummet, while Bill Shorten matching his post-budget figures on both net approval and preferred prime minister. Abbott hasn’t quite reached his lowest ebb on net approval, but he’ll get there in very short order if the present trend continues.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,049 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

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  2. Lizie

    Speaking of reminders, there are some classic Abbott lies in that Factcheck on No. New Taxes. This one is relevant to the whinging about falling mining revenue.

    In opposing a levy to pay for reconstruction after devastating floods in south-east Queensland in January 2011, Mr Abbott said: “Why should the Australian people be hit with a levy to meet expenses which a competent, adult, prudent government should be able to cover from the ordinary revenues of government?”

    have a good day all. I hope all the windy weather here does not affect the cricket.

  3. Rocket Rocket

    I learnt about Louis Pasteur and pasteurisation in primary school. From recollection, unpasteurised milk caused serious illness as it can carry dangerous bacteria.

  8. lizzie, I remember my dairy farmer Uncle would chop his chooks the minute they slowed in their laying, but never saw him ‘move on’ his older cows.

  9. William – Labor in front on a 2PP basis on Bludgertrack in every state as well – was that the case post budget or is this a new situation?

    WA even, Labor in front on 2PP in Bludgertrack!

  17. SK

    today’s is all ‘Sophie Mirabella didn’t need a fancy office, she put her energies into her electorate’…coming from unnamed sources, of course.

  21. From the post I linked to above:

    But it is the need to be seen as competent that means that there may not be an internal resolution to the government’s problems either, since the clearest sign of incompetence is understood as leadership destabilisation. Abbott faces no real contender, with no real alternative, as Gillard did with Rudd.

    Instead it will be done in code and through the media. With all the outrage over the hypocrisy of Pyne petitioning against ABC cuts his own government introduced, it was little noticed that he was also distancing himself from the leadership position – just as Turnbull did the other direction by barely attempting to cover up Abbott’s pre-election promise not to cut at all.

    There is the discrete undermining of Abbott via attacks on the PM’s Office and especially his Chief of Staff, Peta Credlin. And of course wonderful examples like this morning’s report of Kevin Andrews shafting Credlin while calling for unity at the same time.

  26. Socrates

    Re Abbott scoring word of the year with shirtfront.. I heard a 😀 definition on Waleed Ali’s show.

    Shirtfront n)To hand someone a koala.

  27. Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Thursday, December 11, 2014 at 5:34 am | Permalink

    I do not yet think the population has experienced enough negative consequences for being a mob of selfish, ill-informed, WIIFMist, racist, sexist, judgmental, gutless, greedy pigs who would sell their compatriots, the disadvantaged and vulnerable, their country and their future generations down the river so they can live in an illusion of safety from some vague outsider by taking bribes in the form of reduced utility bills.

    They think that if they can force the Libs to change leader they can eat their cake and still have it.

    No let them have the full three years of what they voted for, they deserve it.

    I agree with and support these comments.

    Let the mugs realise they used the baseball bats on themselves.

  29. Continuing a net emigration of 200,000+ a year when there is a housing shortage, industries are being closed down, our environment is under unsustainable stress, our standards of living are falling, and unemployment is climbing, does not seem very sensible.

  30. Insiders say much of the problem is that Bishop has shone while Abbott and others have struggled

    “Shone” – FMD.

    The best bit is she appears to believe it herself.

    All the better when she comes a gutser as well.

  36. I agree with and support these comments.

    Let the mugs realise they used the baseball bats on themselves.

    I do too, up to a point.

    The ugly reality is that the pain will be deliberately targeted toward the non-Coalition voters.

    On the good side, the government’s aim seems so inept they are also scoring major hits on the fickle swinging voters, and even on their own natural constituency.

  38. From article in Murdoch’s Telegraph no less:

    PATIENTS could end up paying way more than $5 to see a doctor, with the AMA predicting a copayment of up to $10 under Tony Abbott’s revamped policy on GP fees.

    Worse still, patients who were once bulk-billed may have to pay $42 upfront and then go to Medicare to claim a $32 rebate as doctors scramble to stop their income from general patients being cut in half.

  40. 2
    Gecko

    Another year of the same and it will be 60-40.

    On the current trend (since about mid October) it will be there by about the end of February.

    Indeed I’m surprised it’s not there now with the deceit oozing from everything the LNP has to offer. Australians don’t like liars and they despise sneaks.

    They re-elected Howard 3 times.

  41. I do too, up to a point.

    The ugly reality is that the pain will be deliberately targeted toward the non-Coalition voters.

    These things flow on, like what is happening to businesses seeing poor demand.

    What goes around etc and there is a lot more to come. Allowing the big end of town to shuffle profit to low taxing countries, and the range of tax breaks the wealthy can access at home, super etc are all unsustainable.

  42. lizzie

    Posted Thursday, December 11, 2014 at 8:00 am | Permalink

    Rocket

    I bet the failure of that milk was from the packaging, handling and shelf life. My farming family drank fresh, unpasteurised milk for years and stomach upsets were unknown

    It was “raw” milk. Supposedly marked as for “cosmetic use only” . A bullshit marking that is one of the wink wink nudge nudge ruses for the “raw milk movement” people to get around the law and sell it. Selling online is another avenue.
    Drank raw milk only growing up on the farm with zero probs. But our herd was regularly tested and it was straight from the shed to fridge. However when it comes to “mass market” sales of raw milk I am in the “No” camp. Adds too many more avenues for things to go wrong.

  43. Another backflip? Or hockey and Abbott Contradicting each other?

    Billion dollars in transport project cash for Victorians
    ELLEN WHINNETT HERALD SUN DECEMBER 10, 2014 11:54PM SHARE

    UP to $1 billion of federal money would be available for public transport projects in Victoria, Treasurer Joe Hockey said.

  45. Worse still, patients who were once bulk-billed may have to pay $42 upfront and then go to Medicare to claim a $32 rebate as doctors scramble to stop their income from general patients being cut in half.

    Yep – thats the main aim – to get more doctors to cease bulk billing. It will also cut doctors visits.

    The tories cannot help themselves and it will result in them being booted from government.

  46. Abbott always uses the clincher “no one objects to the co-payment on the PBS” to close down the argument about his own co-payment.

    I don’t see that it’s the same, myself, but journos don’t follow through and argue with him.

    Can anyone explain why it isn’t the same please? In a way that Dutton would undestand?

  47. poroti

    However when it comes to “mass market” sales of raw milk I am in the “No” camp. Adds too many more avenues for things to go wrong.

    Exactly my point. Raw milk sitting on a shelf for a day or two? Yuk!

  48. citizen

    Abbott was interviewed earlier on ABC Melbourne. He was playing his usual word games re infrastructure funding for Victoria. I will continue to not believe a word he says, and wait and see what he actually does. So far, he has met my expectations of f@@ing over the electorate

  49. citizen

    Abbott was suggesting that Andrews should sell off assets to fund his P.T. That would possibly be where Hockey comes in, the “recycling” theory.

  50. On twitter

    “@latikambourke Niki Savva: Senior Govt insiders fear PM Abbott has convinced himself he can’t survive without Peta Credlin.”

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