BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

On nearly every measure going, the latest readings of the BludgerTrack polling aggregate find the Coalition doing fully as badly as it was after the budget.

Driven mostly by a dreadful result from top-tier pollster Galaxy, the Coalition suffers another substantial downturn in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, to the extent of returning to the worst depths of the post-budget slump. The change compared with last week’s reading amounts to a clear 1% transfer on the primary vote from the Coalition to Labor, translating into a gain of five for Labor on the seat projection including two seats in Queensland and one each in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. With new figures added from Ipsos and Essential Research, the leadership ratings show Tony Abbott continuing to plummet, while Bill Shorten matching his post-budget figures on both net approval and preferred prime minister. Abbott hasn’t quite reached his lowest ebb on net approval, but he’ll get there in very short order if the present trend continues.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,049 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

  1. Steve777@1994

    The Democrats couldn’t make up their mind whether they were a Centre Party or a Left-Green Party. They fell between two stools. The Greens took the left and the Centrists mekded back into Labor or Liberal.

    Those who hanker for a ‘centre’ party can’t make up their mind or they subscribe to some mythical position that combines the best of both sides of politics.

    The world is not like that and reality eventually strikes as it did with the Democrats.

  2. Agreed poroti, tinned spaghetti and baked beans are a delicacy to me. Love bunging the beans on a barbie. Some of my liberal voting friends turn up their noses when I do that but they would do that wouldn’t they.
    Oh and bemused if you want to draw that long bow, cricket has just as much in common with poverty as meat consumption..

  3. The end of Peta Credlin
    Peta Credlin was one of the few Coalition staffers willing or able to stick around after the downfall of the Howard government. She hadn’t landed a top-flight lobbying job or a seat in Parliament or simply buggered off to that old shack in the hills/sand dunes. Nor had she embarrassed herself like some did who couldn’t really believe that, after 11 years, it really was all over.

    http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2014/12/the-end-of-peta-credlin.html

  4. MartinB

    [Some months ago a liberal poster accused “the left” (including ALP) of acting morally superior about their ideas. Z rightly rejected that as a nonsense claim about the ALP. But Z turns around and makes exactly the same kinds of arguments about the Greens.]

    One might add that Zoomster’s strawman that Greens don’t trust people and want to impose upon them for their own good is really just a warmed over version of the claim made by rightwing libertarians that ‘the left’ (in which they include the ALP) believes in a nanny state and insufficiently trusts the market, believes in ‘bureaucracy’ and ‘picking winners’ rather than relying on the ‘wisdom of crowds’ and so on.

    This is just an old RW populist meme wheeled out this time on behalf of the ALP against a party to their left. It is amusing how unoriginal the ALP retainers get when venting against those to their left.

  5. With BludgerTrack at 54 and the last Newspoll at 54 then I would expect the next Newspoll to come in within 53-55 for the ALP given that the last week or so has been pretty standard for the COALition, that is a chaotic mess, and allowing for the ‘volatility’ of Newspoll.
    56-44 wouldn’t be surprising either.
    That should cover a few bases.

    Oh what the hell, I’ll go out on a limb – 56:44.

  6. Evening all. I wanted to make a brief comment this evening on the breathtaking lies Joe Hockey told today in trying to excuse his own widening budget deficit, (which he still has not admitted the extent of).
    [“The Government has decided to use the budget which is stronger than it was 12 months ago as a shock absorber for the biggest fall in our export prices in many years,” Mr Hockey said.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-14/budget-a-shock-absorber-for-falling-export-prices-hockey-says/5965814

    Stronger?? ROTFL. Unemployment is higher, the deficit is higher, debt is higher, exports are lower, growth is lower and the dollar is lower. What is stronger??

    This is pure spin. Joe say the budget is facing disaster every time he complains about not getting his budget cuts passed, yet now he says it is stronger when he tries to excuse the growing deficit and his public service cuts. Saying the budget is stronger than 12 months ago is a big, fat, lie. It is also schizophrenic, relative to what else Hockey has been saying. Night all.

  7. [2001
    bemused
    Those who hanker for a ‘centre’ party can’t make up their mind or they subscribe to some mythical position that combines the best of both sides of politics.

    The world is not like that and reality eventually strikes as it did with the Democrats.]

    Totally agree. If ever there was a “centre” where the two main parties could meet, it’s certainly not there any more given the Coalition has gone batshit crazy and Labor is abandoning neo-liberalism. The Coalition has been exposed as ideologically opposed to the values of the vast majority of Australians.

  8. Rocket Rocket@2012

    Anyone had any luck seeing Gemenids meteor shower? There is so much ambient light here in Melbourne it makes stargazing hard.

    I thought I saw some “rising stars” crashing to earth near Canberra … but I may have been mistaken.

  9. If I were a cynic designing a party that would win with a majority of Australian voters it would be one that is economically Social Democrat, socially conservative with a tinge (not too overt) of xenophobia.

    As it is, the ‘Liberals’ use social conservatism and racism as trojan horses to slip in neoliberalism under the radar.

  10. Third parties fill niches. The reason the Greens prosper is because the Left feel like they are unrepresented and the Greens filled that niche.

    The rise and fall of PUP and the possibility of a Xenophon party show a niche opening up in the Right of Centre Populist niche – those who feel the Coalition has moved too far to the right and are out of touch.

    As has been correctly pointed out, the niches that the Democrats used to fill have either been swallowed up by the majors or the Greens.

  11. Steve777 – a (large) majority of Australians support abortion, euthanasia and same-sex marriage, so I don’t think you can describe Australians as socially conservative. We are a pretty racist bunch though unfortunately.

  12. [‘Nobody wants to be part of a government that rings down through the ages as a political punchline. These people are going to be asked by grandchildren yet unborn, “why didn’t you just tell Peta Credlin to fuck off?”.]

  13. In the various reports of Mr Entsch’s character assessment of the PM’s Office, perhaps insufficient attention has been paid to the allegation that the Office has been “briefing against Ministers”. Those of us with long memories will recall that it was a similar set of circumstances which led to the fall of John Gorton after Malcolm Fraser resigned from his ministry. The story is detailed in Postscript 2 to Alan Reid’s classic book “The Gorton Experiment”.

    I suspect it would only take one senior Minister to resign after some dirty backgrounding from the PMO for the dam to break.

  14. One of the great lessons of third world politics is that you are powerful if people think you are powerful: that’s why election campaigns in the third world are all about big rallies, displays of strength, and so on.

    Up to now, people have thought Ms Credlin was powerful, and so, therefore, she was. But with her boss’s authority clearly waning, it will only take a few Ministers to refuse to kowtow to her any longer, as Ms Bishop is reported to have done, and her power will collapse like a punctured balloon.

  15. Tones has the completely legitimate option of saying “doesn’t this guy ever shut up?” whenever he’s asked about something he doesn’t want to talk about, so he should employ it.

  16. You’d have to give yourself a chance to get back for the World Cup, surely.

    Maybe take six months off after that and see where the back is at. He probably doesn’t want to call curtains unless he absolutely has to.

  17. Thinking of Bronwyn Bishop and wondering why young women of Australia don’t have aspirations for a senior role in the LNP… and thereby LNP struggle to have a representative gender mix …
    Is it just me or has all of Julie Bishops first class travels and accommodation caused her to shove her head so far up her own backside that all her speeches are now muffled …

  18. guytaur@2036

    “@GhostWhoVotes: #Newspoll Primary Votes: L/NP 38 (+1) ALP 39 (+2) GRN 12 (-1) #auspol”

    We will start seeing the current turmoil show up in the next News Poll. By then it should be even worse for the ,del>crooks Libs.

  19. Like every australian cricketer before him Michael Clarke will move heaven and earth to keep
    Playing.

    There are millions at stake.

    I have to say I don’t like his chances. Eight hamstring strains, three in the last couple of months, combined with a degenerative back condition is not what you want at his age.

    He would have to do a lot to convince selectors to pick him for the World Cup. If he breaks down again there are no replacements.

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