BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

On nearly every measure going, the latest readings of the BludgerTrack polling aggregate find the Coalition doing fully as badly as it was after the budget.

Driven mostly by a dreadful result from top-tier pollster Galaxy, the Coalition suffers another substantial downturn in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, to the extent of returning to the worst depths of the post-budget slump. The change compared with last week’s reading amounts to a clear 1% transfer on the primary vote from the Coalition to Labor, translating into a gain of five for Labor on the seat projection including two seats in Queensland and one each in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. With new figures added from Ipsos and Essential Research, the leadership ratings show Tony Abbott continuing to plummet, while Bill Shorten matching his post-budget figures on both net approval and preferred prime minister. Abbott hasn’t quite reached his lowest ebb on net approval, but he’ll get there in very short order if the present trend continues.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,049 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

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  1. Confessions

    Probably only a day or two past its use by date. Live dangerously and give it a try. Lots of curry powder is the best thing for dodgy meat I believe.

  2. I find the main use for “pet mince” and “meaty dog bones”, as advertised by our local butcher, is to threaten our permanently wired kelpie x dobermann with what he’ll become if he doesn’t behave himself. Not that he takes the slightest bit of notice ;).

  3. JD

    Well I think your prediction is going to be close. Disunity has to move the poll at least one point. Too late for the cutting of agencies and MYEFO softening up to be a factor I would think

  4. guytaur – let’s not forget the $5 sick tax that’s completely different to the $7 sick tax. I think 56-44 is unlikely but would make a truly wonderful Christmas present!

  5. The theorising about the Nats and Greens will hit hard reality in NSW Election in 2015.

    Nineteen Nats form part of the NSW Government, in the lower house, which will suffer a hefty swing. Not sure if the Nats will lose many if any.

    The Greens have one seat which will be under heavy Labor attack as it is its former heartland seat of Balmain.

  6. JD

    It depends on what day the Newspoll is coming out. If its tuesday it will be just after midnight as that is when it goes up.

    Of course ABC’s the Nightlife may have the TPP half an hour before that.

  7. PVO clarifies his Wow statement re NewsPoll

    [@vanOnselenP: @j_evns vague fair enough, but incredulous? Doesn’t that mean you can’t believe the tweets…but you said they are a life certainly? :)]

  8. zoomster@1931

    PBers used to regularly post meat prices to show how much more expensive it is to eat dogfood.

    A kilo of mince is $5 in Coles. Turn that into bolognaise and you’ve got a week’s worth of meat meals for a single person for the week.

    Another way of economising is simply to have smaller portions of meat.

    I don’t like eating a lot of meat so can happily buy a single piece of rump steak (fairly large) and cut it into 6 pieces for 6 meals.

    Also, Kangaroo meat is available for human consumption at the local Coles and is cheaper than other meats and supposedly healthier.

  9. JD

    Well only two hours to wait and see if that is so. I agree that is what I would think too. However PvO could mean when he sees it which could be earlier than when the poll comes out. So I hedged my bets.

  10. PvO’s wow is up there with mod lib’s yikes.
    Means little.
    As for Newspoll I’m predicting 56-44 to the good guys. It couldn’t show an improvement for the coalition given the last fortnight for them.
    Was amazed to see on the news tonight Warren Entcsh has issued a formal complaint against Abbott for his branding of criticism of his COS as sexism.
    They’re unraveling.

  11. guytaur@1936

    Thanks William

    That is interesting. I thought no more polls till next year. Now we get to see how much effect disunity has on the poll

    You are assuming an almost immediate effect whereas I suspect there is a lagged effect over a period of time.

  12. Re food prices
    Tinned fish/tuna/salmon/sardines are very good value price wise and nutritious

    I suspect that sometimes people on low incomes ,especilly those from family backgrounds where nutritious diets were lacking lack certain skills with food
    In my earlier daus my other..a good cook made many meals from cheap cuts (then) of beef and lamb

  13. bemused

    I was thinking of the Robb being chaperone earlier on. Not even Abbott being rolled by Bishop news that came out. Its why I did not mention the turn Dr’s into tax collectors.

    I agree there is a lag. Its just how far will the poll move if at all from the last time. It could move faster though if events before being polled have reinforced views and hardened others.

    I think that is how you will get what appears to be a rogur but turns out to just be the first of the many

  14. Dog food is bloody expensive these days.
    Sheesh, those shmackos, which my dog loves, works out to about $12 per kilo.
    Even those little tins of my dog work out to about $10 per kilo.
    If I was a battling pensioner I wouldn’t be able to afford dog food. Cheapest options are canned fish, baked beans and spaghetti and budget mince. All cheaper than dog food.

  15. 1901

    The Democrats where a party in the political centre of politics. That is hard territory to be in in Australia. If you side too much with either side it hurts your vote a lot. The DLP suffered the same problem (combined with Gair taking the Ambassadorship) in the Whitlam years. The Democrats had partly moved to what is the Greens political territory now but were not united about it and the infighting killed them. The Greens being there to take up the left of the ALP vote helped there as well, I think.

  16. 54-46 or better for the ALP will render me a very happy bogan and will hopefully keep Bludgertrack on its current rather splendid trajectory.

    Sure, the next Federal election is 2 years away and the Coals have come from behind before, more than once, but I’m currently content to take each day as it comes and enjoy at least a realistic possibility that this pack of bastards have been rumbled and will be turfed at the first opportunity.

  17. William Bowe@1987

    Interesting to observe that a number of people who were complaining about cricket talk yesterday have now turned the board over to their meat-buying habits.

    It is related to issues of poverty which I would have thought was a legitimate political topic.

  18. William Bowe@1987

    Interesting to observe that a number of people who were complaining about cricket talk yesterday have now turned the board over to their meat-buying habits.

    Well, I for one find it much more interesting than cricket!

    And while on the subject … what about the number of supposedly homeless beggars in Syndey with dogs in tow? What’s that about? If they ditched the dogs, they would probably be able to afford accommodation!

  19. 1937

    In the 1999 election not one seat switched from National to ALP. The Nationals lost only Gippsland East to Ingram and Warnambool to the Liberals.,_1999

    There was also no National loss to the ALP in 2002. They did however regain Benalla, won at the 2000 by-election, from the ALP.,_2002

    Apart from the Benalla by-election, I am not aware of any National held Victorian state seat being taken by the ALP at an election since the ALP won Kara Kara in 1970 (on Country Party preferences). The National seats in Victoria tend not to be very ALP friendly.

  20. Henry

    [Cheapest options are …..baked beans]
    I get a huge 😀 at the memory of being threatened as a kid on the farm by mum with NOT having tinned baked beans or spaghetti if I didn’t behave.

  21. The Democrats couldn’t make up their mind whether they were a Centre Party or a Left-Green Party. They fell between two stools. The Greens took the left and the Centrists mekded back into Labor or Liberal.

  22. [Interesting to observe that a number of people who were complaining about cricket talk yesterday have now turned the board over to their meat-buying habits.]

    It’s still better than the tedious Green-baiting, I guess.

  23. If I’m ever in a position where I have to choose between dog food and baked beans, I’ll risk the dog food. Baked beans are horrible.

  24. The discussion on the cost of food speaks much about the times we live in … it relates to the lived experience of the great Jo Public.

    Food, a home, basic services …. very fertile ALP territory … I do hope Bill S talks more about these basics …

  25. Poroti

    Bit out of season now but my favourite lunch on a cold winters day. Always check the baked beans aisle for when they are in special and buy a few cans.

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