BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

On nearly every measure going, the latest readings of the BludgerTrack polling aggregate find the Coalition doing fully as badly as it was after the budget.

Driven mostly by a dreadful result from top-tier pollster Galaxy, the Coalition suffers another substantial downturn in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, to the extent of returning to the worst depths of the post-budget slump. The change compared with last week’s reading amounts to a clear 1% transfer on the primary vote from the Coalition to Labor, translating into a gain of five for Labor on the seat projection including two seats in Queensland and one each in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. With new figures added from Ipsos and Essential Research, the leadership ratings show Tony Abbott continuing to plummet, while Bill Shorten matching his post-budget figures on both net approval and preferred prime minister. Abbott hasn’t quite reached his lowest ebb on net approval, but he’ll get there in very short order if the present trend continues.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,049 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

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  1. guytaur

    At the height of the Democrats representation in Parliament, no one would have predicted that they would cease to exist less than a decade later.

  2. [It’s part of the ‘purity’ thing – an attitude that it’s so, so good that the Greens aren’t like actual people, but are a different breed altogether, better educated and morally superior.]

    Absolute piffle. I hope it makes you feel better about yourself, because that’s the only function it’s filling.

  3. [1876
    Nicholas
    Jimmy Doyle, the Greens’ existence and growing success is the lobbying effort of which you speak.
    ]

    Only a teeny tiny portion of the truth, and barely even that.

    [It’s what puts pressure on Labor to renounce neoliberalism.]

    This is utter bullsh*t. I do not remember the last time the Greens talked about economic policy as moral policy. Labor is the party leading the charge against the unfairest budget in living memory, not the Greens.

    [Asking Labor nicely to not sell out so much won’t get their attention much less change their behaviour. Contesting and winning seats with arguments that Labor fails to make these days – that’s what stops Labor from selling out completely. God knows its rank and file members can’t – they don’t have the power because the party lacks democracy.]

    Yes the Labor Party needs reform. That is undeniable. But leaving the party does not help the party, as it abandons the Party to theLabor Right. They are perfectly happy for left-leaning members to leave the party, as it makes their influence that much more easier to maintain. Yes the Greens put pressure on Labor from the left, but it is the inherently good and just nature of left positions, and the work of the members that argue for them, such as Gonski, NDIS, same-sex marriage, addressing climate change, etc. that carry the day within the Labor Party, not whether the Greens promote that policy or not. The larger truth is that winning over voters from Labor’s left-flank saps the Labor Left of financial resources and weakens its position in the party. I’m certainly not saying that Labor “owns” left voters (a silly argument) but the consequences are clear.

    [The Greens’ electoral success does far more to improve Labor’s policy than disempowered Labor members.]

    The silliest and most insulting of your arugments. If the Greens are doing such a great job at “improving” Labor policy, why is Labor’s position on refugees so terrible? You cannot claim this and then deny ownership over one of Labor’s biggest failures. The fact is, is that the only people with influence over Labor policy on refugees are Labor members, and I can assure you they are lobbying vociferously within the party.

  4. [So, if it is more expensive, AND more dangerous…

    Why?]

    BK and poroti have already answered this: lack of appropriate regulation of cosmetic uses of unpastuerised milk.

  5. guytaur

    ‘the purity thing’ is something Green posters here often claim themselves, in one form or another.

    fran’s refusal to vote formally is based on a desire not to taint herself, for example.

  6. [guytaur
    Posted Sunday, December 14, 2014 at 9:12 pm | Permalink

    bw

    You think the LNP is doing well? You think the Nationals are not an endangered party?]]

    (1) No
    (2) Under stress, but not immediately ‘endangered’

    The Liberals, even in this, their valley of tears, are polling at around three times the primary vote of the Greens.

    The message is fairly clear, IMHO: Australian voters will never vote extreme groups into government.

    They might give them a bit of power at the margins, but they will take good care not to allow them to form government.

    Whether this is sensible of them is another question entirely.

  7. guytaur @ 1885

    I normally value your contributions very highly and rarely disagree with you, but in this case I disagree strongly.

    Nicholas has been highly disparaging of Labor members and so I could not help but respond.

  8. I’ve never really understood the “pensioners eating dog food” thing either. I’ve frequently been too poor to afford butcher’s meat too, so, at those times in my life, I haven’t eaten meat at all. I certainly understand that some people like meat – I like it a great deal myself – but I don’t think I like it enough to be so desperate as to eat the humming stuff sold for canine consumption.

    I suppose the issue in this case is the poverty, rather than the consumption of pet food, and that’s an important area to address. I just think that there may be better/more valid means of drawing attention to it than pointing at people who seem to be unaware of cheaper and, indeed, healthier sources of protein.

  9. [I do find it hard though, to comprehend that anyone with a high-school education in a first-world country can be ignorant of the bare fact that preventative public health programs like universal vaccination, pasteurisation, clean water supplies and decent sanitation have saved staggering numbers of lives. ]

    I find it hard to comprehend too. But that doesn’t alter the reality that there has been a growing number of parents refusing to vaccinate their children. That anti-vaccination group were even forced by NSW legislation recently to change their name to better reflect their anti vaccination standpoint so as not to confuse the public.

  10. zoomster

    The Nationals are in more danger than the Greens. This is because the “left” is fairly settled now in party terms.

    The Nationals have to worry about the Liberals and PUP

  11. [DisplayName
    Posted Sunday, December 14, 2014 at 9:14 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar

    … if you are comfortable with these facts …

    I am 😉 .]

    Meanwhile, the Great Barrier Reef is going down the gurgler for want of a Greens government…

  12. Boerwar
    [The message is fairly clear, IMHO: Australian voters will never vote extreme groups into government.]
    Excepting the current mob in power, that is.

  13. Boerwar
    [Meanwhile, the Great Barrier Reef is going down the gurgler for want of a Greens government…]
    I’m more concerned it’s going down the gurgler for want of a Labor government, but to each his own.

  14. [DisplayName
    Posted Sunday, December 14, 2014 at 9:20 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar

    The message is fairly clear, IMHO: Australian voters will never vote extreme groups into government.

    Excepting the current mob in power, that is.]

    And they will duly be turfed for one of the cardinal sins of Australian electoral politics: extremism.

  15. Confessions,

    [Aborigines fought for their rights, for example, the Mambo case.]

    Whoever wrote that deserves to be t-shirt fronted.

  16. guytaur

    [The Nationals are in more danger than the Greens.]

    Killer point. I think I said exactly the same thing a couple of days ago.

  17. [However facts matter. Some of the BS put about needs challenge.]

    Why? You say this as if anything you post here is going to sway people here one way or another. You’re dreaming, same as everyone else.

    You can post all the Green factoids to your heart’s content, but in reality you aren’t changing a single person’s mind.

  18. TIB

    I have always thought the pensioners eating dog food tale was in urban myth class.

    The smell of the stuff suggests that it would be unpalatable.

    A can of baked beans is also probably cheaper.

  19. [theintellectualbogan
    Posted Sunday, December 14, 2014 at 9:19 pm | Permalink

    I’ve never really understood the “pensioners eating dog food” thing either. I’ve frequently been too poor to afford butcher’s meat too, so, at those times in my life, I haven’t eaten meat at all. I certainly understand that some people like meat – I like it a great deal myself – but I don’t think I like it enough to be so desperate as to eat the humming stuff sold for canine consumption.

    I suppose the issue in this case is the poverty, rather than the consumption of pet food, and that’s an important area to address. I just think that there may be better/more valid means of drawing attention to it than pointing at people who seem to be unaware of cheaper and, indeed, healthier sources of protein.]

    This brings to mind Lady’s so-and-so’s foray into the poverty debate in the UK a wek or so ago.

    It was her view that people in Britain were going hungry because they could not cook.

    Her theory received what might be called a hostile reception and she resiled.

  20. theintellectualbogan @ 1910: On dog meat, I know of at least one case where students from a nearby country where dog meat is a delicacy came very close to buying canned dog food at a supermarket, with the view to having a banquet. They were stopped in the nick of time by one of their countrymen who had been here a bit longer, and who recounted the episode to me.

  21. [I’ve never really understood the “pensioners eating dog food” thing either.]

    Yeah, I can kinda get that. When the cheapest mince you can buy in a supermarket is costing, say $7.00/kg and you can buy kangaroo pet mince at $5.00/kg, I can see some people going for it.

  22. [zoomster
    Posted Sunday, December 14, 2014 at 9:24 pm | Permalink

    guytaur

    The Nationals are in more danger than the Greens.

    Killer point. I think I said exactly the same thing a couple of days ago.]

    I recall a few years ago everyone was right off the National Party.

    Shortly after that their vote went up a bit and their parliamentary representation increased.

    The last two people who could have killed off the Nationals were then-leader John Anderson and John Howard.

    They decided it was in the best interest of the conservative side of ppolitics for the parties to remain separate.

    In any case, I suggest that even if the Nationals disappear, the people who vote like Nationals will not.

  23. I’m reminded of a story I heard on the ABC a few years ago, which came from the BBC, about the worst professions in the world. The man they were interviewing had the job of tasting new pet food recipes before they were tried out on animals. He said the jelly accompanying the meat on a lot of dog food was pretty bad.

  24. zoomster

    How much damage do you think the Nationals are suffering under this government from your anecdotal on the ground evidence?

    Here in the city its pretty hard to get a “feel”

  25. PBers used to regularly post meat prices to show how much more expensive it is to eat dogfood.

    A kilo of mince is $5 in Coles. Turn that into bolognaise and you’ve got a week’s worth of meat meals for a single person for the week.

  26. [1920
    confessions
    You can post all the Green factoids to your heart’s content, but in reality you aren’t changing a single person’s mind.
    ]

    That’s beside the point. Much of the BS tonight came from Fran and Nicholas. Fran summarily dismissed the entire Labor parliamentary party, many of whom I respect enormously, while Nicholas demeaned the efforts of the entire membership of the ALP. A stirling effort for those two.

  27. rossmcg@1921,

    I’m not 100% certain about unpalatable. When I was 4 or 5, one of my daily treats was to open a can of food for our labrador and then watch her basically inhale the lot, straight from the tin, in roughly 3 seconds. What my mother didn’t know, until she caught me one day, was that, before handing the tin to the dog, I’d always scoop out a decent fingerful for myself. It’s a long time ago now, but my recollection is that, to my undeveloped taste-buds, it wasn’t bad :).

  28. Thanks William

    That is interesting. I thought no more polls till next year. Now we get to see how much effect disunity has on the poll 🙂

  29. guytaur

    the Nationals are a resilient bunch.

    Farmers – their main support base – tend to be over 50, from the generation which left school at fifteen (because further education was a waste when you were going on the farm). So a natural conservatism is reinforced by a lack of education. They’re a hard bunch to move.

    Bracks and Brumby had some success in Victoria in snatching traditional National seats – but most of these have now gone back to the Nationals.

    How they fare in the future, as their base quite literally dies off, will depend on whether or not they can adapt. Younger farmers do tend to be better educated; whether that makes them less likely to vote National remains to be seen.

    There seems to be a lack of talent in the National ranks, given that a first termer has just become their Deputy in Victoria. But this seems to be offset by a high degree of tolerance for ineffective local members, as long as they’re ‘good blokes’.

  30. TIB

    I’ll talke your word on that….

    Confessions

    The kangaroo pet mince is a different kettle of fish to the tinned stuff I was thinking of.

    When I lived in Adelaide in the 80s there was a pet supplier at the markets who sold roo meat and I used to buy it in 2kg lumps and cut it up for the cat. It was beautiful meat and more than once the thought crossed my mind about dropping a piece in a pan. Never did tho. cat loved it.

  31. BW@1922,

    Yeah, but it takes a whole lot more cooking ability to turn a can of Homebrand Fido’s Favourite into an acceptable meal than it does to do the same to a tin of beans.

    Some poor people cook, some don’t and, for those that don’t, the reasons are a lot more varied (and a lot less open to judgement) than simple ignorance or inability.

  32. [Much of the BS tonight came from Fran and Nicholas. Fran summarily dismissed the entire Labor parliamentary party, many of whom I respect enormously, while Nicholas demeaned the efforts of the entire membership of the ALP. ]

    And again I ask, so what? Fran and Nicholas want to circle jerk each other with bullshit, that’s their problem, not mine. And certainly not yours. Best thing that could’ve happened on that front is for PBers to leave the two of them to it, shake their heads and roll their eyes at the numptyness and simply move on.

  33. Unpasteurised is not the problem. Babies drink unpasteurized milk every day, from their mothers. The problem is unpasteurised plus time. Milk is a nutritious drink for babies and a nutritious culture medium for bacteria.

  34. There will be huge interest if we see a non “wow” PvO tweet re Newspoll. Perhaps he has installed the Acme auto insert “wow” app ?

  35. zoomster

    Thank you. The other thing that may effect the rate of change with farmers is corporate farmers taking over the family farms.

    From the sounds of it the Nationals will be around for one or two elections yet.

  36. theintellectualbogan

    My mother caught me picking out the tastier dried dogfood pellets from the dog’s bowl. I think I preferred the white (bone) ones, but I can’t remember accurately.

  37. rossmcg:

    The Albany Lenards periodically offers chicken mince for pets at $2/kg that is remarkably similar to the free range chicken mince I buy for myself at 4 times that amount.

  38. guytaur @ 1935 – normally I’d be inclined to agree with you, and normally I try to not participate in Labor/Greens warfare, but I think Labor commenters have been remarkably restrained (BW made one comment). Zoomster and I have been the only ones making any substantial pro-Labor arguments challenging Nicholas and Fran’s unfair assertions, so I’d love to know what you disagree with.

  39. JD

    I agree with some on both sides. There is osme truth under the BS.

    Thats why it gets under peoples skin. eg The Greens have never formed government in their own right. Labor does have problems where the members have less say than they should.

    The BS is making that out to mean the party is worthless as a result.

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