BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

On nearly every measure going, the latest readings of the BludgerTrack polling aggregate find the Coalition doing fully as badly as it was after the budget.

Driven mostly by a dreadful result from top-tier pollster Galaxy, the Coalition suffers another substantial downturn in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, to the extent of returning to the worst depths of the post-budget slump. The change compared with last week’s reading amounts to a clear 1% transfer on the primary vote from the Coalition to Labor, translating into a gain of five for Labor on the seat projection including two seats in Queensland and one each in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. With new figures added from Ipsos and Essential Research, the leadership ratings show Tony Abbott continuing to plummet, while Bill Shorten matching his post-budget figures on both net approval and preferred prime minister. Abbott hasn’t quite reached his lowest ebb on net approval, but he’ll get there in very short order if the present trend continues.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,049 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

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  1. zoomster
    FSANZ regulations require all milk sold to be pasteurised in order to manage the proven high risks of ingestion of raw milk. The representation of raw milk as “bath milk” with warnings not to drink it are simpply ruses between suppliers and the particular customers. Nudge nudge, wink wink!

  2. Nicholas – while I agree the Greens have for the most part rejected neo-liberalism and are growing in fits and starts, they are not right now capable of forming government, and won’t be for some time. That’s why I think it’s much more important to lobby Labor to reject this inhumane dogma, and it has for the most part since the GFC. Labor’s version of the NBN, as a government-funded and government-owned piece of critical infrastructure that treated everyone fairly and equally, was the clearest example of that.

    Whatever Labor and Green commenters on PB argue about the indisputable fact is that, at this point in time, it is Labor that forms progressive governments and implements progressive policies. So at this point in time, it is far more productive to influence Labor’s policy development, its ideological outlook, and its attitudes in government.

  3. Unpasteurised Goat’s milk has been legal for human consumption for decades if not for ever.

    The goat guy is worried he will have extra costs, no problems if kids die.

  4. Surely, if you’re a left-wing voter, the best way to promote left-wing policies in the ALP is to vote green and show the ALP that there is a party on it’s left flank eating into its support. That would give Albanese, et al, a lot more strength in Caucus than otherwise. Otherwise, they would just be taken for granted.

  5. [1842
    Fran Barlow
    The sad reality lies in the persistent disconnect between those who mostly vote ALP and even your party members and the actual conduct of your parliamentary and organisational wings. Most of your supporters are perfectly genuine in their desire for a better world, but your parliamentary teams drain their morale and leave them scrambling to apologise for every rotten compromise. Green though I am, I do feel great sympathy at the burden imposed upon the loyal ALP foot soldiers.
    ]

    Again, your sweeping generalisations have let your argument down. My personal experience with the Labor MPs I’ve personally met have been hugely positive and they’ve always impressed upon me their commitment to policy detail, and more widely, to justice. I would trade the entire Green federal parliamentary party for Tanya Plibersek any day.

  6. Kevin One Seven

    That assumes one votes according to a set of attitudes rather than for outcomes.

    I don’t support the ALP because I am ‘left leaning’ or ‘progressive’ and therefore must vote a certain way in order to wear the label but because the policies it implements happen to be those I support.

  7. The main difference, I would suggest, is that Labor sees these as something you work for with people, and the Greens see it as things you impose upon them for their own good.

    Of the two parties the Greens clearly have the more collaborative approach to policy development and candidate selection, and the flatter, more democratic decision-making structures. Labor is much more hierarchical, top-down, and authoritarian.

  8. [What follows is a collection of excerpts from genuine undergraduate history essays across Australia. Compiled by Professor Neve R. Stenning-Stihl, here is Australian history as you’ve never known it:]

    This is hilarious. It includes astute observations about Australian history such as:

    [In the 19th-century city, prostitutes occupied a variety of positions. The historical impression of prostitution notoriously has a shady storyline suspect to more probing. Prostitutes are commonly depicted as being very sexually promiscuous. Some historians suggest that the history of prostitution is largely oral.]

    And:

    [In the nineteenth century it was commonly thought that the Aboriginal race was inferior and dying out and that it was the duty of white Australians to ‘fluff the pillow’. However, their attempts to sooth a dying pillow were just a ply to serve the economic needs of whites. The Aboriginal cricket tour to England in 1868 was perhaps a contribution to smoothing the pillow of the Aborigines. (However, why you would take them on a ship to England to smooth a pillow is beyond my comprehension). Later, Aborigines fought for their rights, for example, the Mambo case.]

    😆
    http://www.themonthly.com.au/blog/professor-neve-r-stenning-stihl/2014/07/07/1404700048/rich-history-failure-australian-history-a

  9. [1857
    zoomster
    That assumes one votes according to a set of attitudes rather than for outcomes.
    ]

    One does not necessarily preclude the other. I am a member of the Labor Party because I am left-wing and value progressive outcomes.

  10. [ I would trade the entire Green federal parliamentary party for Tanya Plibersek any day.]

    I saw Penny Wong let fly at an ALP conference in Adelaide and will until the day I die know that JG did the right thing with the shoppies.
    Penny Wong is a force of nature when she goes.
    Big fan.

  11. [1858
    Nicholas
    Of the two parties the Greens clearly have the more collaborative approach to policy development and candidate selection, and the flatter, more democratic decision-making structures. Labor is much more hierarchical, top-down, and authoritarian.
    ]

    And not being a member of the ALP, how would you know this? The NDIS came about as a direct result of a branch motion in Sydney. No one is denying that Labor is flawed or that reform isn’t needed. But for all that the Greens policy development hierarchy is flat, the Greens have achieved precisely zero of their own policies that aren’t already the policies of Labor.

  12. Nicholas

    which is nothing to do with what I’m talking about.

    Labor (at its best, and I’ll admit its not always so) tries to bring people – that is, voters, not just party members – along with it; the Greens seem to operate on the assumption that people can’t be trusted to look after themselves and that this task is best left to their betters.

  13. Are observers still banned from Green Federal Conferences? Any member can attend any ALP conference.

    Do the Greens NSW have to follow any Green’s policy? (The answer is no). 😛

  14. boomy1 – oh fine! Tanya Plibersek and Penny Wong. That’s a much better deal anyway 😉

    Seriously though, Wong, one of the greatest people in this country bar none, is a symbol of what Australia can be at its best.

  15. rua – my favorite conference thing is that in the USA you can’t take a gun in to the NRA Annual Conference – not even if you are a responsible gun owner!

    What they do is make sure they hold it in a state and city where such would be illegal – so they can say it’s the local laws preventing it, not the NRA!

  16. [Diogenes
    Posted Sunday, December 14, 2014 at 7:51 pm | Permalink

    On the unhealthy jogging theme,

    IF THERE is a sadder example of Darwinism in action, I don’t think I want to hear it.

    News this week a Melbourne toddler had died after being fed raw cow’s milk was all the more heartbreaking because of how utterly needless the death was.

    Should the parents be charged with abuse?]

    (1) Until I was around 18 I only ever drank raw cow’s milk. Dairy farms being what they were in those days there was a reasonable chance that there a smidge of cow shit, mud and whatever leavened the milk. Apparently this drastically reduced my chances of getting allergies.

    (2) I assume that raw milk is cheaper. Like canned dog and cat food is. Perhaps poverty is driving people to buy this sort of stuff?

    I don’t know the circumstances in this case.

  17. [(2) I assume that raw milk is cheaper. ]

    It was sold as ‘bath milk’. I don’t buy ‘bath milk’, but if I did, I’d expect to be paying cosmetic prices rather than grocery prices for it, ie more.

  18. It is a bit rich for the Greens, who will never form government because of the unpopular nature of the policies, to expect other parties to do unpopular stuff on their behalf…

  19. poroti
    Posted Sunday, December 14, 2014 at 8:34 pm

    [When it comes to the Shoppies mob, the sooner they disappear the better.]

    I’m wondering what Amanda Rishworth thinks about how far she she might go.

  20. Boerwar

    The raw milk is not cheaper it is a “boutique” product with prices to match. I too was raised from knee high to a grasshopper on raw milk from the farm but once milk leaves a farm cross contamination can come from a zillion sources. Also those on the farm may have ,as with us and our parents, been exposed to lots of the bugs since birth so may have gained protection .

  21. confessions

    I understand that.

    I recall many years ago being shocked when someone pointed out to me that old age pensionsiers were buying dog food because they could not afford butcher’s meat.

    I assume that the pensioners ignored the ‘pet food’ message, just like some people might be ignoring the ‘bath milk’ message.

    You kind of tend to forget what real poverty does: It forces people to take the least worst of a bad set of choices.

  22. poroti

    Oh. ‘Bath’ milk is more expensive?

    If so, they were very silly people and Dio has something of a point.

    Still, if every delinquent parent got done for it, we would have to multiply our prison space by a factor of ten.

  23. Jimmy Doyle, the Greens’ existence and growing success is the lobbying effort of which you speak. It’s what puts pressure on Labor to renounce neoliberalism. It’s what pulls the centre of Australian politics further to the left than what it would be if the Labor Right and the LNP had their way.

    Asking Labor nicely to not sell out so much won’t get their attention much less change their behaviour. Contesting and winning seats with arguments that Labor fails to make these days – that’s what stops Labor from selling out completely. God knows its rank and file members can’t – they don’t have the power because the party lacks democracy. The Greens’ electoral success does far more to improve Labor’s policy than disempowered Labor members.

    If the impotent are pure, the Labor rank and file are pure indeed.

    The Green rank and file actually get to direct their party. Green membership means something. And the Greens are winning seats and moving the political conversation to questions of justice, distribution, sustainability, and human worth.

    I am glad that this party is winning seats and putting the fear of God into Labor. It’s the only thing that stops Labor from selling the store.

  24. The Shoppies, unlike other unions, does its level best for its members.

    I don’t like deBruyn’s values, religion or politics, but I admire his huge capacity for work and the good he has done for union members.

  25. [the Greens seem to operate on the assumption that people can’t be trusted to look after themselves and that this task is best left to their betters.]

    Sorry but that’s just ALP culture-war talking point stuff. The Greens are out there articulating arguments, representing their constituency and trying to win support. Yes, the greens are not trying to gather a coalition of 50+% of the electorate under their own name (which is *not* to say that they are unconcerned with this task) but what evidence is there that the Greens have some kind of undemocratic approach to politics? Have their been leaks of a potential coup? Have sleepers been infiltrated into the ALP? Are the Greens bribing public servants?

    Some months ago a liberal poster accused “the left” (including ALP) of acting morally superior about their ideas. Z rightly rejected that as a nonsense claim about the ALP. But Z turns around and makes exactly the same kinds of arguments about the Greens.

  26. Boerwar:

    poroti is right that this stuff is a boutique product, not a cheaper product.

    There has been additions to the dairy market over here of ‘lessor pastuerised’ milk (for want of a better term) promoted as a high end product pitched at those who go for organic this, and less fiddled with that.

    It is not cheaper, but more expensive. Case in point a local dairy producer selling 1L bottles of his lessor pastuerised milk for $5. Your struggling pensioner or single parent isn’t going to be buying that to drink, bathe in, or howl at the moon at.

  27. Boerwar

    Heaps sold online so no chance about it being cheap. ABC RN had a program on it a couple of weeks back. The “cosmetic” labeling being a sham to get around the law sounded a pretty open “secret”.

  28. Nicholas

    You are quite right.

    The Greens operate at the periphery and are capable of throwing their minuscule electoral weight around at the BOPmail margins from time-to-time in order to attain marginal differences.

    In this respect they are exactly the same as the Shooters and Fishers who have achieved one of their objectives: hunting in New South Wales national parks, for example.

    That’s Life. The Shooters and Fishers are not going to overturn the way the economy is run. And neither will the Greens. All else is Greens Dreaming.

    That said, it would be useful for the Greens to understand that they will only make a structural difference to Australia if they form government.

    And by then there might not be an economy or an environment left. It reminds of Nero. His music was good but Rome was an ash bed.

    Never forget the golden rule of the ballot box: doG gives victory to the big battalions.

  29. OK, Dio et al, upstring:

    I accept the posts above that demonstrate that Bath Milk is relatively expensive.

    In which case there may already be a remedy under the law: a manslaughter charge.

  30. I see the Green bashers are out again.

    Same tired arguments as were being used when it was only Bob Brown in Federal Parliament.

    Look what has happened. The Greens are the third Australian Party and the way the LNP is going one day soon could be the official opposition.

  31. BK

    Glad you mentioned the anti vaxers. I had the same thought

    There was a report in the Age yesterday quoting the mother of a toddler who got ill.

    She was drinking the “bath milk” in the belief it would provide some benefit for an unnamed health issue.

    The toddler was finishing off her smoothies.

    Boewar

    If you grew up in a dairy farm you had a Rolls-Royce immune system. There is medical evidence to support this.

    Your average modern city kid who has never seen a bit of dirt on his hands, much less in his mouth, is not so blessed.

    It is a tragic business, hopefull some lessons will be learnt

  32. g

    It is not Greens ‘bashing’ to point out uncomfortable truths to the Greens about the Greens.

    [The Greens are the third Australian Party and the way the LNP is going one day soon could be the official opposition.]

    This sort of reminds me of DTT’s predictions of a million dead of Ebola by Christmas.

  33. MartinB

    It’s part of the ‘purity’ thing – an attitude that it’s so, so good that the Greens aren’t like actual people, but are a different breed altogether, better educated and morally superior.

    And it’s not contradictory to argue that Labor isn’t like that but the Greens are.

  34. Given that you can get safe, pasteurised, if somewhat ethically dubious, cow’s milk from Colesworths for $1 a litre, and given that I’d be very surprised to be able to obtain anything for that price from a health food shop, I suspect those buying “bath” milk are stupid rather than poor. Or, if not stupid, at least woefully ignorant of the reasons that pasteurisation was originally introduced.

    It’s one thing to drink milk straight from the cow when you know its provenance and production conditions, but to trust any more complex supply chain? No thanks.

    I do find it hard though, to comprehend that anyone with a high-school education in a first-world country can be ignorant of the bare fact that preventative public health programs like universal vaccination, pasteurisation, clean water supplies and decent sanitation have saved staggering numbers of lives. They are not some evil conspiracy on anyone’s part.

    But then, given that I’m fairly certain we’ll be burning witches before the end of the century, I suppose nothing should surprise me.

  35. DN

    It must be an uncomfortable truth for the Greens that around 90% of Australians will not vote for them.

    It must be an uncomfortable truth for the Greens that they will not form government in their own right in the forseeable future.

    OTOH, if you are comfortable with these facts, that is your call.

    our personal thresholds on these matters do vary.

  36. bw

    You think the LNP is doing well? You think the Nationals are not an endangered party?

    Your uncomfortable truth is BS. As I pointed out not that long ago there was only Bob Brown representing the Greens in Federal Parliament.

    Now a HOR seat and more Senators. Not so bad at State and Territory level either.

    Your arguments work only if that growth stops and the Greens never form government.

    Never is a long time

  37. [I see the Green bashers are out again.]

    “Green bashers”? Jesus. If you don’t like it, ignore it or change the subject instead of perpetuating it by adding your own frickin commentary to it. After all, who cares what rusted on, anonymous Labor voters have to say about the Greens, right? Our opinions will not be changed, so why not focus your energies on the battles that actually matter.

    And if you can’t let go by realising that not everyone thinks the same as you, then post about something else. I suggest the cricket. 😀

  38. t-i-b

    […

    It’s one thing to drink milk straight from the cow when you know its provenance and production conditions…
    …]

    It used to be a standard joke amongst us dairy farm kids that if you saw where the milk came from, how it was obtained, etc, etc, etc… you would never drink it.

    In relation to ‘ethics’, I dare say if the full Greens’ suite of ethical standards were applied to bovine milk production for humans, you would by paying around ten times as much for a litre of milk.

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