BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor

The latest weekly poll aggregate reading finds depths being plumbed by Tony Abbott and Palmer United.

Only very slight movements on BludgerTrack this week, Labor’s strong showing in Newspoll having been dampened a little by a relatively weak result from Morgan. The seat projection is unchanged in aggregate, although the Coalition is up a seat in Victoria and down one in Tasmania. Palmer United has once again reached a new low. There’s quite a bit more movement on the personal ratings on the back of this week’s Newspoll numbers, which continue to show Tony Abbott’s net approval heading south with some velocity, and Bill Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister solidifying.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,592 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor”

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  1. A congestion tax is fine as long as it’s specifically linked to providing money for projects which will provide usable alternatives to car use.

    A year or so ago (I think) the Townsville Council raised parking fees in the CBD quite a bit. However, by stating that the increased revenue would be put into providing better public transport, the inevitable backlash was muted.

  2. [… we could employ people digging holes and filling them up again.]

    Or perhaps building new school buildings, or making house more summer-proof by subsidizing insulation.

    But then of course, the government would be opening themselves up to a Royal Commission into on-the-job deaths, and critism from 0.75% of schools who didn’t like the color of the new school fence.

  3. “@srpeatling: Foreign Minister Julie Bishop says PM has transferred responsibility for climate change negotations to DFAT (away from Dept. of Env.).”

  4. Actually Palmer is a condescending, arrogant, egotistical bully. No wonder many people hold politics and politicians in utter contempt.

  5. I don’t know what kind of response Uhlmann was hoping to get with this question to Hockey on AM today:

    Certainly but how much of this is your fault? You have actually come in for a lot of personal criticism recently. The Australian newspaper, which has backed the government, would like to see you changed as treasurer.

    And this was a good line from Ian Macdonald:

    Everyone accepts that there has to be a co-payment.

    But I don’t. So let’s try an argument by contradiction:

    Let us assume that all people accept the need for a co-payment. But Inner Westie, who is a person, doesn’t accept the need for a co-payment. So the assumption is false.

    That was fun.

    I’m now going to play with Pyne’s proposition that he is friends with all of the crossbench senators.

  6. [Foreign Minister Julie Bishop says PM has transferred responsibility for climate change negotations to DFAT (away from Dept. of Env.).”]

    the vultures are ripping up the carcase

  7. SGH

    In this case Palmer is the victim of bullying by the Murdoch press.

    I do not like Palmer on many things but he is right about the Murdoch Press. We see it all the time. Its just Palmer can and does tell them where to go

    If you doubt local examples see UK phone hacking revelations that exposed the bully culture

  8. Scoring the Great Reset.

    (1) Johnston launches from one disaster to the next. Whatever floats his boat. Despite Abbott’s protestations of loyalty, Johnston will soon depart his home port for a short journey to the breaker’s yards. Zero out of ten.

    (2) Abbott actually did a 45 minute interview. The Australian Prime Minister actually sticking around to answer some hard questions by real journalists was such a novel idea that some people in the rabid right thought that there really was a Great Reset. Exactly the same schizoid journalists who were horribly scathing of the New Julia were completely unfazed by the Great Reset. 1 out of 10. You will not see too many of these because, as Farr pointed out, it is a really dangerous thing.

    (2) In Abbott’s absence, Bishop rather looked as if she fancied the prime ministership during QT yesterday. Bishop and Abbott are now it, hammer and tongs, because Bishop got lumbered with Robb without consulation. (Who can blame her – who would want to go o/s with the ever-creepy Robb?)

    The ferocity of the fight between Bishop and Abbott has been leaked. So we can add leadershit to the Great Reset. This has resulted in a bit of a reset: leadershit is on the up, so will give this one a 5/10.

    (3) Pyne failed comprehensively on the uni legislation. He managed to make himself look even more of a dickhead than usual. Just to keep Pyne nice and happy, the South Australian Parliament passed a motion condemning his colleage, Defence Minister Johnston.

    On the way through to the keeper, Pyne pissed away three or four billion making Hockeys’ Hole even worse.

    Pyne outdid even his usual grub standards by trying to hide behind Hughes’ funeral while he was copping a pizzling in QT. 0/10.

    (4) Described as a ‘hippo’ by someone in the conservative commentariat after the Great Reset, Hockey is charging about clacking his mandibles, and doing the blame game. Who? Moi? I am only the Treasurer.

    Just to help him along, the September Quarter growth figure was less than half what was predicted and Australia has now had two quarters of income falls. The loss of 2,600 jobs reminded everyone of whose idea it was to destroy Australian manufacturing. It did all rather look like that when Hockey suddenly realized that his job was on the line he charged out of the water and started baring his fangs.

    Hockey is desperate for a spend, any spend, so has essentially been given the task of pretending that Abbott’s $3 billion blackmail has been, kind of, um… reset. So Hockey is now trying to cut a deal with Andrews.

    In substantive terms, the debt is going up, the deficit is increasing, unemployment is going up, real income is going down, the dollar is going down the tubes, commodity prices are down the tubes, consumer confidence is down the tubes and business confidence is down the tubes and the RBA has stopped talking about increasing interest rates. 0/10.

    (5) Just to remind everyone that Abbott, most of the Liberal Party Room, and nearly all the Nationals Party Room are climate stupid denialists, the environment minister has been banned from going to the global climate conference. This is because he actually knows that climate change is on. 0/10.

    (6) The ADF got its Christmas leave back but Shorten tabled a petition with 60,000 signatures objecting to the real pay cuts to the ADF – mostly signed by the ADF who can’t do much direct action on the civilian front. Just to remind them of the rationale for the cuts – the budget and deficit disaster – Johnston does the plutocrat. 0/10.

    (7) Newpoll gave Abbott a bit more of the old thumbs-down. If he was a gladiator in the Colisseum he would be vulture bait by now. 0/10.

    (8) New Caring Morrison (let out of the Cone-of-Silence norty corner by Credlin for the Great Reset) might cut a deal on asylum seekers in the Senate. If he does so, he will further establish his ability to get things done, thus exacerbating the Abbott/Bishop/Morrison leadershit.

    Now that Morrison is no longer the overwheening, patronising, arrogant, serial torturer of unfortunates, will people warm to him? 10/10 if his Bill gets through the Senate before Christmas.

    (9) Truss looks genuinely crook. Joyce took this opportunity to remind everyone that he is the Nationals Crown Prince by pissing off all the Victorian Nationals by claiming wtte the Shepparton loss was no biggus dealus because it is a federal Liberal seat. Having been jettisoned by Abbott, Sharman Stone promptly took to the airwaves to compound the damage to the Coalition. 0/10.

    (10) We are still at war. No Great Reset there, either. The 200? 400? 600? troops may or may not actually be in Iraq and they may or may not be doing something. No-one knows. No-one knows what happened to the troops we sent off to invade the Ukraine, either. Just to top it all off, our Axis of Evil Ally – Iran – using some clapped out Phantoms, bombed some people who are now our enemies in Iraq. Plus Iran managed to drag the nunclear negotiations for another six months’ worth of enrichment. 0/10.

    (11) Meanwhile, much of the MSM is grappling hard with narratives, as if they were some sort of real crocodiles emerging from the mangroves. 0/10.

    (12) At Abbott’s behest and despite our debt and deficit disaster, Australia is still pissing away hundreds of millions of dollars on the MH370 search while sacking thousands of scientists. 1/10.

    (13) The states, responding to massive funding cuts from the Prime Minister for Aboriginal Affairs, are about to embark on a massive forced concentration of over 5,000 Aboriiginal people that will, inevitably, lead to increases in deaths and increases in the growing mayhem in places like Broome, Fitzroy Crossing and Alice Springs. Some Indigenous people have been rumoured to have hung Mudine in effigy. Mudine is certainly publicly supporting the policies which will lead to the forthcoming deaths of his brothers and sisters, and, it is rumoured, has been hung in effigy as a consequence. 0/10.

    A Great Reset?

    Gimme a break.

  9. Taking it away from Dept of Env to DFAT is actually pretty shocking. It shows Tony is genuinely worried that the people who actually understand this stuff will get in the way of his grand plan. So he throws it to the talented DFAT puppets, who can be trusted to follow orders.

  10. Corio

    A congestion charge is also fine if it is levied on those causing the congestion.

    to simply add a surcharge on the licence fee of the many thousands of car and truck owners who never go near Perth’s freeways or CBD in peak hours, if at all, is as dumb an idea as I have heard.

    I look forward to seeing Emperor BArnett spin this one.

  11. If Hunt didn’t have such an annoying manner I would almost feel sorry for him. He’s done everything the Minchinites have asked of him – to do the dirty work of spearheading destroying any credible action on climate change – and yet his colleagues still don’t respect him enough to send him to a climate change conference as environment minister.

  12. By the way, isn’t it a bit plucky for a broad in Bishop to go bananas at Abbott?

    What do the boys think about this?

    Many of them suspected she would affect morale in the change rooms. Well it’s happening now. The whole atmosphere is wrong. They can’t be themselves, crack the kinds of jokes they like to crack, whinge about their wives with the same sense of solidarity, and use rude expressions such as ‘meow’ and ‘girly man’.

    She should be dropped in the next reshuffle. Perhaps replaced by Donkey in Trade or Boats in Defence.

  13. K
    Fortunately Andrews, like Abbott, will have a whole series of roadblocks in the Upper House to expedite rapid and coherent decision making.

  14. I think Shorten’s comments in the House today may have taken inspiration from Romans 12.20
    [BUT IF YOUR ENEMY IS HUNGRY, FEED HIM, AND IF HE IS THIRSTY, GIVE HIM A DRINK; FOR IN SO DOING YOU WILL HEAP BURNING COALS ON HIS HEAD.]

  15. B

    No make haste slowly will be more value to Victoria and the nation. Abbotts head and Hockey’s stitches may well explode in the next 2 weeks

  16. CTar1@149

    I don’t know so much up in Port H.

    That lot voted a National in so they can cop it. Anyway, they always complain that they are overlooked by the government.

    Mind you, the Emperor did mention that there would be some ‘concessions’ so it might be Royalties for Regions money might be used instead of for expensive dunnies in the middle of nowhere.

  17. [163
    Kinkajou

    Foreign Minister Julie Bishop says PM has transferred responsibility for climate change negotations to DFAT (away from Dept. of Env.).”]

    This is very dangerous for J Bishop. She will actually have to touch on something significant that the electorate cares about. Considering climate change has been a political death valley for all who approach it, she will have reason to be very cautious. Doubtless, Abbott will be hoping he has given Bishop the rope with she might hang herself.

    On the other hand, she might be able to use this to shift opinion inside the LNP, challenge Abbott and bring Australia back to the international table all at the same time.

    We will see. She certainly has more power at the moment than the gormless Hunt.

  18. [Kinkajou
    Posted Thursday, December 4, 2014 at 11:12 am | Permalink

    B

    No make haste slowly will be more value to Victoria and the nation. Abbotts head and Hockey’s stitches may well explode in the next 2 weeks]

    Try telling that to unemployed and underemployed Victorians.

    Business investment in Victoria is declining.

    Now is not the time to play silly political buggers in Victoria.

    Not that that will stop the Upper House from doing all care and no responsibility.

  19. [Actually trying to avoid a DD trigger and admitting to it?]

    Just because there’s a trigger there’s no obligation to pull it. Pyne needs to have something before the senate and reworking the old bill would take time that they don’t have. Far easier to pull the new bill out of the back pocket where it’s probably sat for days if not weeks

  20. briefly

    [Doubtless, Abbott will be hoping he has given Bishop the rope with she might hang herself.]

    The ‘Malcolm Turnbull’ ploy repeated.

  21. Rocket rocket

    Cassidy stated the bleedin obvious. The govt has had a dreadful few weeks and there are real tensions within the party and cabinet as illustrated by the stories that have emerged re JBishop and DJohnston in Defence. Also Hockey and the budget is a real problem as well as CPyne and the uni reforms.

  22. [Doubtless, Abbott will be hoping he has given Bishop the rope with she might hang herself.]

    Better and better..if he wipes out anyone who might actually save them by replacing him

  23. 195
    CTar1
    Posted Thursday, December 4, 2014 at 11:24 am | PERMALINK
    briefly

    [Doubtless, Abbott will be hoping he has given Bishop the rope with she might hang herself.

    The ‘Malcolm Turnbull’ ploy repeated.]

    Team Labor would be more than happy for Abbott to remain the coaliton leader until the next election

  24. victoria

    I would not be so sure. Remeber it was Abbott that was trying to change to a realistic position on GP tax before being overruled.

    Its also why giving Bishop climate responsibility could be his undoing.

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