BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor

The latest weekly poll aggregate reading finds depths being plumbed by Tony Abbott and Palmer United.

Only very slight movements on BludgerTrack this week, Labor’s strong showing in Newspoll having been dampened a little by a relatively weak result from Morgan. The seat projection is unchanged in aggregate, although the Coalition is up a seat in Victoria and down one in Tasmania. Palmer United has once again reached a new low. There’s quite a bit more movement on the personal ratings on the back of this week’s Newspoll numbers, which continue to show Tony Abbott’s net approval heading south with some velocity, and Bill Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister solidifying.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,592 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor”

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  2. Oh dear. It appears the Abbott ‘barnacles’ metaphor has a familiar providence..

    His new contract secures polling services from Mr Crosby’s business partner Mark Textor and support from a team of staff.

    Mr Crosby also helped John Howard to win four election victories in Australia, but failed to repeat that success for Conservative leader Michael Howard at the 2005 general election.

    Conservative party chairman Grant Shapps told The Sunday Times: “This is about ensuring we have the best possible campaign team and operation in place to secure a Conservative win in order that we can continue driving down the deficit, creating more jobs and cleaning up the mess left by years of Labour.”

    Mr Crosby has lobbied for tobacco giant Philip Morris in the past – but denied having any influence over the government’s decision to shelve plans for plain cigarette packaging in England and Wales.

    The tough-talking election guru is reported to have told Mr Cameron to “scrape the barnacles off the boat” by ditching extraneous policies in favour of a ruthless focus on core issues such as welfare and immigration.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24795026

  3. Is Abbott getting paranoid about the rise and rise of Julie Bishop? In echoes of Rudd Mark 1, the Lying Friar is wanting to keep tabs on his Deputy.

    Deputy Liberal leader Julie Bishop has remonstrated with Prime Minister Tony Abbott after reading in the media that she was to be chaperoned by Trade Minister Andrew Robb at an international climate change summit next week.

    Sources told The Australian Financial Review that Ms Bishop demanded a “please explain” from Mr Abbott this week after reading in Fairfax Media’s Sun-Herald that Mr Robb would be shadowing her at the United Nations climate change conference in Lima, Peru.

    “Julie went bananas at the PM,” said one source.

    The story is doing the rounds at senior levels of the government and fuelling growing discontent among cabinet ministers at Mr Abbott’s office, specifically his chief of staff, Peta Credlin.

    Mr Robb is junior to Ms Bishop insofar as she is the Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade.

    She was not consulted about the “chaperoning” and it has been suggested Mr Robb, a hardliner on climate change policy, was to be sent by Mr Abbott’s office to ensure she did not over-commit Australia on climate change policy.

    It is understood Ms Bishop also confronted Mr Robb over the matter.

    http://m.afr.com/p/national/julie_bishop_goes_bananas_over_andrew_fIbf3kOJ0FRkb8gR7Qj0MP

  4. Hubris is a terrible thing to observe. It does seem remarkable that barring a major course correction we are likely to see another first term pm rolled in 2015.

  8. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Laura Tingle – A government all blustered out and nowhere to go. Ouch!
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/government_all_blustered_out_nowhere_n2uivv6IZx8AnRc3hwfxAJ
    Peter Martin assesses our economic future.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/weak-economy-to-push-rates-down-20141203-11zcp2.html
    Paul Sheehan – It’s time for Hockey and Abbott to tell us a new story.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/time-for-hockey-and-abbott-to-tell-the-electorate-a-new-story-20141203-11ze6y.html
    2014 will be the hottest year on record as climate talks heat up.
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/hottest-year-on-record-as-climate-talks-heat-up-20141203-11zfcc.html
    Elizabeth Farrelly is upset about what is being lost in the remake of Sydney.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/sandstone-selloff-betrays-public-legacy-20141203-11z1g5.html
    SMH editorial – we must respect science and our scientists.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/australia-must-respect-science-and-our-scientists-20141203-11zcjh.html
    Science cuts area false economy.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/science-cuts-are-false-economy-20141203-11xjfr.html
    Michelle Grattan on how Abbott is playing funny buggers by sending Robb to Lima to chaperone Mesma and leaves Hunt, our putative Climate Change Minister, at home.
    https://theconversation.com/australias-environment-minister-doesnt-get-a-guernsey-at-lima-climate-change-conference-34978
    The kooky cult of Abbott’s end days – Bob Ellis in The Independent Australia.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-cult-of-abbotts-end-days,7152

  9. Section 2 . . .

    Stephen Koukoulas -Australian tobacco consumption hits an all time low.
    http://thekouk.com/blog/tobacco-consumption-hits-a-fresh-all-time-low.html#.VH9uiTGUeSo
    Poof!! There goes another $3.5b.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/dec/03/higher-education-bill-abbott-government-trades-away-35bn-budget-savings
    The New Matilda trawls through Pyne’s ABC petition for the best comments.
    https://newmatilda.com/2014/12/03/christopher-pynes-people-movement-poised-most-phyrrhic-victories
    View from the Street. A good read.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-why-is-scott-morrison-holding-refugees-hostage-20141203-11zh2m.html
    And another promise/commitment to be shattered? This time the Charities Commission.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/charities-commission-set-to-stay-despite-coalitions-promise-20141202-11yg6x.html
    Conroy accuses an NBNCo executive of misleading us.
    http://www.smh.com.au/it-pro/government-it/nbn-co-corporate-chief-misled-the-public-on-multitechnology-mix-says-conroy-20141202-11yxpv.html
    Peter FitzSimons reflects on the effects of two deaths in sport.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/sandstone-selloff-betrays-public-legacy-20141203-11z1g5.html
    Is the independent Planning Assessment Commission in NSW that independent after all?
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/planning-assessment-commission-under-fire-from-miners-ombudsman-20141203-11yq8x.html
    It will be interesting to see how the customer handling processes will work in these “one stop shops” being rolled out by the federal government. There is, in my opinion, great potential for upsetting customers of Medicare, the ATO and Centrelink with excessive waiting times and double triaging.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/more-federal-shopfronts-in-canberra-to-close-20141203-11zamd.html
    Further problems for David Johnston – not that he doesn’t deserve it.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/defence-minister-chaos-as-two-staffers-ejected-amid-leak-investigation-20141203-11zhxm.html

  10. Section 3 . . .

    It looks like the Senate will be in detention until the government gets it way. We’ll see about that.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/dec/03/coalition-may-keep-senate-sitting-in-attempt-to-pass-remaining-bills
    Pyne might turn to paid advertising – sorry, information bulletins – to pursue his tertiary education legislation. And there’s a beaut little cartoon by Cathy Wilcox in the article!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/government-mulls-university-ad-campaign-after-senate-defeat-20141203-11zfjs.html
    Morrison’s minute sweeteners unlikely to save his TPV legislation.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/dec/03/asylum-bill-temporary-protection-visas
    An audit reveals fresh concerns over 457 visas and improper pay.
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/audit-reveals-fresh-457-visa-concerns-20141203-11zb9n.html
    Alan Moir and Abbott’s troubles with “atmospherics”.

    Ron Tandberg with Abbott being confronted with the ghost of the past.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    Cathy Wilcox has fun with Abbott’s syntax.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
    A gorgeous contribution from David Pope!
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20141123-1t3j0.html
    David Rowe and Bronny’s bucket.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  12. Morning all? ESJ who do you think is showing the hubris? I do not perceive it from Shorten, who is being very cautious.

    I think the problem for Abbott is that he does not need a course correction, he needs an attitude correction, and seems incapable of that. He simply doesm’t have the flexibility to change positions the way Howard or Hawke did. The best he can do is a mea culpa, yet still continue with the same deeply unpopular policies.

  13. I’m just listening to Hockey on radio at the moment with Uhlmann.

    He’s getting a pasting.

    This man is not competent to run the economy. All he ever does is make excuses and propose a reduction in government spending.

    Reducing government spending may make the government’s books look better, but it will not put bread on the table of redundant GM, Ford and Toyota workers. It won’t revive the solar industry. It won’t create any new industries.

    Building a few motorway tunnels is a stop gap. Flogging off publicly owned assets is just transferring money from one pocket to another.

    Hockey’s whole plan is based on his embarrassment about years of ranting and raving about deficits and alleged waste, and now being presented with reality… ideological shit, while the nation sinks below the waves.

    How can taking money out of the economy boost it?

  15. Speaking of our slowly sinking economy, another old tech manufacturing plant is closing in Adelaide.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-03/bradken-foundry-sends-employees-closure-letter/5939186

    Meanwhile the after effects of past industrial pollution are finally being dealt with in the same city.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-03/residents-relocated-after-report-shows-elevated-tce-levels/5938834

    I am not sorry to see low-tech, badly regulated, badly polluting industries leave Adelaide. The problem is the lack of investment in their replacements. So, lets cut research funding instead… Genius, Hockey style.

  18. Just a heads up Pubsters. There are three comments here by Bludgers.

    One I reckon is our Dan Gulberry,
    Best Insult Using An Historical Reference Award

    And the other two are mine. under the nom-de-plumes of Allan Key, and Athelwaite Pennyfarthing.
    Most Deeply Passionate Insult Award
    Most Seriously Creative Insult Award
    🙂

    https://newmatilda.com/2014/12/03/christopher-pynes-people-movement-poised-most-phyrrhic-victories

    Comment navigation

  19. CTar

    David Johnston trying to help small business by spending $98 for a T-Bone.

    He is all heart. That way he keeps in touch with the battlers too. He feels for them, he really does.

  20. David Johnston trying to help small business by spending $98 for a T-Bone.

    How soon before someone T-bones Johnston? One man’s meat is another’s poison.

    😉

  22. Johnston probably thinks that the carbon tax is still impacting on meat prices, and that $98 Tbones are the norm in a world of $100 lamb roasts.

  23. The $98 steak probable doesn’t seem so bad when you realise that it was washed down with $190 bottles of wine. That is Johnston’s way of keeping it all in perspective.

    At this point I wouldn’t trust Johnston to buy a sandwich with taxpayer’s money.

  24. From yesterday’s AM interview with Pyne

    But Labor and the Greens could actually support good Government policy in the same way as the Howard opposition did when Hawke and Keating were in power..

    I’m assuming that Pyne has to skip back to when Howard was in Opposition because the Opposition he was part of HAD to oppose everything Labor did because everything Labor did was Teh Bad — in which case, why did they promise to keep most of it prior to the last election?

    You have to admire young Chris’s nimbleness. These quotes come from the same answer —

    CHRISTOPHER PYNE: Well, we will introduce a new reform bill this morning ..

    ..Big reform takes time, Chris. It’s not something that just happens overnight when it’s important.

    So big reform takes time, which is why this is being rushed through Parliament.

    What’s more, he then refers to continuing talks with the University sector over the summer – which suggests he’s putting the Bill back to Parliament knowing that it will be knocked back.

    Well, we’ll continue to talk to the sector and the crossbenchers over the summer and we’ll return in February and debate that bill. That’s part of it. We’ll see what happens when we return in February..

    But I thought the government’s been saying the Senate has to sit until it gets passed?

    (Oh, please – a DD trigger on University funding!!)

    And then Uhlmann gets started on how nasty the Senators are being —

    What if the senators behave in a puerile way?

    ..Why do they treat you then with contempt? You have to say that some of the ways that you’ve been treated by this Senate have been contemptuous.

    ..And surely that is contemptuous.

    http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2014/s4140975.htm

  27. zoomster

    But Labor and the Greens could actually support good Government policy in the same way as the Howard opposition did when Hawke and Keating were in power..

    It must have been the theme of the day programmed into the government cyborgs empty heads that day. HoJo moaned about how “the opposition” have modeled themselves on that under Howard rather than that under Hawke + Keating.

  31. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-03/sub-50-oil-surfaces-in-north-dakota-as-regional-discounts-swell.html

    Oil market analysts are debating if oil will fall to $50. In North Dakota, prices are already there.

    Crude sold at the wellhead in the Bakken shale region in North Dakota fell to $49.69 a barrel on Nov. 28, according to the marketing arm of Plains All America Pipeline LP. That’s down 47 percent from this year’s peak in June, and 29 percent less than the $70.15 paid for Brent, the global benchmark.

  33. http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/greens-push-for-national-reform-of-donations-laws-20141203-11zhz2.html

    Political donations from property developers, the minerals industry and tobacco, liquor and gambling companies would be banned under a proposal to be moved by the Greens.

    Greens senator Lee Rhiannon will introduce the bill on Thursday. It would forbid parties accepting money or gifts from the five industries, in a bid to “restore public confidence in the work of governments, ministers and individual MPs”.

    The Greens have long pushed for national reform of donations laws but have faced resistance from the major parties to their calls for a national anti-corruption watchdog.

  36. Time for me to again post my regular prediction that, regardless of all the other blunders, it will be failure to deal with the economy that does for Abbott and Hockey.

  37. An unprecedented further cut in interest rates to levels never seen before in Australia is now virtually certain as the national economy sputters with dwindling growth and disposable incomes slipping backwards.

    Slower than expected growth of just 2.7 per cent for the year, outlined in the September quarter national accounts, immediately prompted Treasurer Joe Hockey to reassure Australians he would not order harsh new cuts in the forthcoming Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook nor in his second budget in May, admitting it would harm the economy and risk further falls in jobs growth and incomes.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/weak-economy-to-push-interest-rates-down-20141203-11zcp2.html#ixzz3Ks9ljia2

    Shit just got real for Hockey.

  38. “CAULK THE LEAKS”
    Nice work, BK :).

    So with the silly season almost upon us there is not much prospect of a happy ending in the Senate for the government.

    This leaves Hockey facing a unique double of both rising unemployment AND an increased budget deficit. Gee, austerity works so well.Is he trying to emulate Greek economic policy?

    Have a good day all.

  41. sprocket_
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2014 at 10:34 pm | PERMALINK
    For those who don’t partake of Murdoch tabloids..

    EXCLUSIVE

    AUSSIE troops may be facing a pre-Christmas pay cut but Defence top brass are spending thousands of taxpayer dollars wining and dining industry figures vying for billions of dollars in government contracts.

    Just a minute. The government is the customer here. Why is the customer wining and dining the potential suppliers? The usual thing is for the suppliers to wine and dine the customer.

    These suppliers are taking the government for fools (as if we didn’t know that already).

  46. Good Morning

    Some additional bad news for Abbott on optics. In the UK.

    24 has shown the Chancellor is bringing in a profits tax. Not a super profits tax just a profits tax.

  49. Yesterday’s Mumble:

    As I’ve noted before, the further behind a government comes from to be re-elected, the greater the gloating from its supporters. If Abbott is still prime minister in 2016 the postmortem will be painful to experience. Our storytellers will explain that Abbott never had doubt he would prevail, no one understands the Australian psyche like this sporting, cycling everyman, the Left underestimate him and so on.

    But Australians have never taken to Abbott and probably never will. A change of leadership would increase further the probability that the Coalition is re-elected.

    This is something Shorten might want to take into account. His chances of success at the next election will be maximised if Abbott is still prime minister.

    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/careful_what_you_wish_for_bill/

  50. Kim Beazley @AusAmbUSA · 2h 2 hours ago
    We’re hiring … a talented defence policy research officer. Applications close Dec 17. http://bit.ly/1yNoQCH #AusDCjobs #jobs #jobsearch

    Perhaps David Johnston can apply and get some much needed defence policy experience!

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