BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor

The latest weekly poll aggregate reading finds depths being plumbed by Tony Abbott and Palmer United.

Only very slight movements on BludgerTrack this week, Labor’s strong showing in Newspoll having been dampened a little by a relatively weak result from Morgan. The seat projection is unchanged in aggregate, although the Coalition is up a seat in Victoria and down one in Tasmania. Palmer United has once again reached a new low. There’s quite a bit more movement on the personal ratings on the back of this week’s Newspoll numbers, which continue to show Tony Abbott’s net approval heading south with some velocity, and Bill Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister solidifying.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,592 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor”

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  1. [ David Johnston trying to help small business by spending $98 for a T-Bone. ]

    He should have asked for the ‘Barnaby’ menu – could have got a whole roast for $100.

  2. We had latika bourke giving advice to Shorten, and now Paul Sheehan to Abbott and hockey. What would we do without these insightful and invaluable journos?!

    [A golden opportunity for such an admission will present itself in two weeks, when the Treasurer presents the mid-year budget statement. As Hockey’s demeanor has telegraphed, this will be a sober reassessment of a deteriorating federal debt and deficit position. Defeats in the Senate, plus falling commodity prices, have hit hard.

    This is the reset button, the new reality, and the new narrative. It presents not merely a cost, but an opportunity.]

  3. vic

    [It presents not merely a cost, but an opportunity.]

    An opportunity for Joe, again, to show that he’s not to be trusted (and sweat a lot).

  4. Abbott announcing that our $0.5b tokenistic search for MH370 will continue well into next year (as long as there some headlines perhaps?)
    And now he’s back onto the “death cult”.

  5. “@latikambourke: Indeed. RT @PhillipMHudson: It is unusual to see PM give a speech to Parliament with the front-bench behind him virtually empty”

  6. Abbott’s repeated references to the crossbench as a death cult is unbecoming.

    They are his redeemers, showering upon him opportunities he never thought existed.

  7. [While there is no serious threat to Mr Abbott’s leadership…]

    Yeah. I remember the media assuring us that the threats to Rudd and Gillard’s leadership had passed, usually about 10 minutes before a new PM was announced…

  8. guytaur
    [It is unusual to see PM give a speech to Parliament with the front-bench behind him virtually empty]
    Abbott obviously doesn’t trust his colleagues enough to have them behind him.

  9. [Latika Bourke Verified account
    PM Abbott says ‘all of us ride on the shoulders of our staff’ as he thanks his CoS Peta Credlin – the ‘fiercest political warrior’ he knows.]

    Kiss of death?

  10. An interesting subtlety.
    A rose by any other name…

    A euphemism has been effed off by one of the COALition cheer squad.

    For years we had a price on carbon described by the media, and purely coincidentally by the COALition, as a carbon ‘tax’, or more emphatically TAX!!!

    I heard Mark Simkin of the ABC do a routine report of an unrelated issue on ABC News one night in which he reiterated the phrase ‘carbon tax” 6 times just to shove the message home that it was a tax, a “TAX!’ he said 6 times just in case we didn’t get it the first 5 times.

    Times changed.
    The COALition became the government and introduced a tax on fuel which has been dubbed ‘fuel excise’ and is not called a ‘tax. Fair enough. although hardly consistent.

    Similarly the word ‘tax’ is never applied to the euphemism “$7 GP co-payment’.

    Oops, it has now been labelled a ‘tax’ – by no less than Paul Sheehan in the SMH.
    [The $7 levy, or tax, or fee, or co-payment is zombie politics]
    and again, twice in one part sentence:
    [The party room has come to hate the $7 Hockey tax on visits to doctors, and this hatred pales in comparison with the cold loathing for Hockey’s proposal to use the tax …]
    and its a ‘Hockey’ tax to boot.


  11. By the way, isn’t it a bit plucky for a broad in Bishop to go bananas at Abbott?

    What do the boys think about this?

    Many of them suspected she would affect morale in the change rooms. Well it’s happening now. The whole atmosphere is wrong. They can’t be themselves, crack the kinds of jokes they like to crack, whinge about their wives with the same sense of solidarity, use swear words such as b*tch and c*nt.

    She should be dropped in the next reshuffle. Perhaps replaced by Donkey in Trade or Boats in Defence.

  12. Sachin Lara – “Can someone please confirm. Was Pyne actually right in regards to the pronunciation of Wang and Wong?”

    Yes and no. If we were living in Mandarin China than the pronunciation of ‘Wang’ would sound closer to ‘Wong’. However, we are not, and in Australia English we pronounce it Wang (it would be interesting to see if someone could dig up a video to see how Zio introduces himself). So in terms of technicality he is correct.

  13. So, in our hottest year ever, our environment minister is not going to a global conference about the climate change, the number one threat to the environment …


    No amount of narrative is going to help them if the first recourse to climate change is waggling Coalition arses in the air while it gets hotter, and hotter and hotter.

  14. I think PUP’s polling decline should be taken in context. PUP has never had a solid support based, and its success at the last federal election was largely a product of Palmer’s capacious wallet. He blitzed advertising before the election (spending more than the ALP, I believe), and even paid people to hand ‘how to vote’ cards at polling booths (most other parties have a volunteer based they can draw upon). I suspect that the majority of people who voted for him are not keenly engaged with politics (they are unlikely to be reading this blog), and are therefore very susceptible to high-impact advertising before an election (they are not rusted-on to any party, and are unlikely to examine party politics or policies in depth, rather they engage with sound-bites). Therefore, like any marketed product, when advertising blitzes end, sales decline. So more than likely, if Palmer can dig deeper in his wallet, he is likely able to produce a bit of a bump at the next election.

  15. I am thankful that Real Morrison has finally come out from under his trusty rock.

    New Morrison has a softer voice. It is almost unctious. He is soooooooooooo reasonable. He wants to help the children of whom he is currently the chief jailer. He really, really does. He has such empathy.

    If only those wicked, nasty people-hating thugs in the Senate will enable Morrison to free the children!

    Hey… I feel a rock song coming on.

  16. I’m not sure whether Abbott got it.

    Shorten’s speech towards the end was full of zingers, wry irony and outright sarcasm, disguised sweetly as well wishes.

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