BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor

The latest weekly poll aggregate reading finds depths being plumbed by Tony Abbott and Palmer United.

Only very slight movements on BludgerTrack this week, Labor’s strong showing in Newspoll having been dampened a little by a relatively weak result from Morgan. The seat projection is unchanged in aggregate, although the Coalition is up a seat in Victoria and down one in Tasmania. Palmer United has once again reached a new low. There’s quite a bit more movement on the personal ratings on the back of this week’s Newspoll numbers, which continue to show Tony Abbott’s net approval heading south with some velocity, and Bill Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister solidifying.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,592 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor”

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  1. Bw

    [New Morrison has a softer voice. ]

    Very noticeable yesterday.

    The bill needs very close examination – the Senate, I think, will decide to leave this one to the next session.

  2. Bushfire Bill

    Watching the look on Abbott’s face when Shorten was talking about Abbott’s “kindness” etc I think he knew all right.

  3. I dont believe Shorten’s words for Abbott and his family were meant to be anything other than respectful gestures for another person’s family

  4. OMG !

    [
    Leigh Sales ✔ @leighsales
    Follow
    My guest tonight is the Prime Minister Tony Abbott #abc730

    6:33 AM – 4 Dec 2014

    16 Retweets 6 favorites ]

  5. Morrison might have got the word from his happy clappy overlords that presiding over the torture of children is not a good look (effective politically, but a bit embarrassing for the church).

  6. [I dont believe Shorten’s words for Abbott and his family were meant to be anything other than respectful gestures for another person’s family]

    Yes, it was very subtle, which is why I pondered whether it went over Abbott’s head.

    But I winced when I heard references to Margie and the “talented” girls.

  7. ratsak

    [So what were the rest of Cabinet up to whilst the PM was speaking in the House?

    Bashing heads, counting numbers?]

    More likely out at the Airport.

  8. CTar1

    Trivia time,the russkiys colloquially call them Chukchis . A geographical reference but it has taken on a pretty heavy derogatory tone.

  9. victoria

    A soft interview for Abbott is just as bad. However soft questions about the budget will come up.

    A huge defeat for Abbott. In their Christmas 7:30 reports Howard, Rudd and Gillard are asked about future plans if the word budget comes up at all.

    Abbott will be asked how he plans to get his budget up as the economy is tanking. Reality is biting.

  10. I can’t decide what I like best – the current poll results and bludgetrack seats projections or how shrill they are becoming across at the Daily Rupert. This one goes so close to waving the white towel and seems to realise hockey and abbott have no tricks left. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/joe-hockey-needs-his-mojo-to-save-budget/story-fnahw9xv-1227143948828

    I note hockey has now declared it would be irresponsible to pursue spending cuts – meaning the deficit ‘crisis’ will blow out – he’ll blame labor the greens and the senate. The greens should never have removed the sending cap, as I’ll bet abbott goes on a shameless vote buying spree in 2015/16, leaving labor a genuine black hole.

    meanwhile, we’re going to have a parliament that gets very little legislation other than housekeeping measures through. they have pissed off people they need – I heard lambie on the radio this week and she sounded like a woman scorned (hell hath no fury…etc). Compare and contrast with Gillard’s working relationship with her hung parliament and senate.

    With regard to the government’s move toward using extra-parliamentary means to achieve cuts and fees that been blocked in the senate, and claiming a ‘mandate’ for measures that they expressly said they would NOT do prior to the election (Pyne and abbott – ‘no cuts to education’,’unity ticket with labor on gonski’ etc – someone should refer them to the fate of Charles I following his disregard for parliament.

    what odds are there for abbott being PM at the end of 2015?

  11. Now that the budget has been universally recognised as the worst in living memory, let’s recall the words of one of the LNP’s most respected spivs.

    Deloitte Access Economics ‘budget guru’ Chris Richardson responds to a question from Sarah Ferguson on ABC TV (budget night):

    Ferguson: I like it when economists talk about being happy or sad Chris. Is it enough for you; do the cuts go deep enough?

    Richardson: …Yes, I am happy. They’ve made a genuinely solid start. They’ve done a number of things that need to be done. They’ve been willing to talk about things, even age pensions, that politicians haven’t been willing to touch for a while. Some fights are pushed off further down the track – the states and the rest of it. But count me in the happy column.

    Jesus, I’d hate to see his sad column.

  12. A successful motion of no confidence in what passes for the Speaker of the House would be a most satisfying and fitting end to the last parliamentary session of the year.

    Let’s see if Abbott has sufficient control over his dogs to prevent it.

  13. Has anyone been able to discern the logic of this ‘plan’ that Hockey keeps blathering on about?

    I am deeply mystified by what he says and see no semblance of anything I would call a plan.

  14. Thanks BK for the link to this article which I cannot commend too highly.

    Science cuts are false economy
    [The understanding that the world economy is driven by science and technology has existed for over a generation, since US economist Paul Romer explained ‘endogenous growth theory’, which basically asserts that growth is built upon human capital, innovation and knowledge. A glance at the list of the world’s top companies makes it clear that almost all are founded on this insight. Outside of Australia, few question that science, technology and engineering are the primary drivers of wealth, health, wellbeing and sustainability in our world today.

    In May this year I wrote a piece in the Canberra Times lamenting the growing scientific illiteracy of the Australian political class. This isn’t a new phenomenon, indeed it began with the Hawke Government slashing 30 per cent of CSIRO funding back in the 1980s. Since then, however, there has been a steady, prolonged erosion of national and State investment in science, technology and engineering in what has become a bipartisan race-to-the-bottom to lobotomise Australia.]
    We are being led by morons.

  15. bemused

    Hockey plan is to follow the UK in Austerity. The difference is here the plan not working because we have a Senate blocking the cruelty.

    Getting the plan to work is a whole different story and there I agree I do not see what they plan to get it working.

  16. How to create a plan:

    – gather a bunch of barely coherent motherhood statements
    – sprinkle with a touch of wishful thinking
    – distill down into three word slogans
    – publish in glossy brochure with lots of pictures and the word PLAN prominently featured on the front cover.

  17. guytaur@130

    bemused

    Hockey plan is to follow the UK in Austerity. The difference is here the plan not working because we have a Senate blocking the cruelty.

    Getting the plan to work is a whole different story and there I agree I do not see what they plan to get it working.

    Oh I see, follow someone else’s plan that is a proven failure.

    Well that’s clever! 😛

  18. Hockey has already announced that there will be no austerity drive in the sense of following revenue downhill with matching spending cuts.

    The truly bizarre possibility is that Hockey is (very) secretly glad that the Senate’s de facto quantitative easing by way of opposing all sorts of social spending cuts provides some underpinning for consumer confidence and consumer spending.

  19. Sachin Lara @ 1

    Can someone please confirm.

    Was Pyne actually right in regards to the pronunciation of Wang and Wong?

    Pyne is correct, as has been confirmed by Dio Wang himself.

  20. IW@124

    Your mention of Chris Richardson was in my mind when the budget came down. His was one of the earliest responses I saw and his cheesy grin spoke volumes.

    I commented to whoever I was with that clearly this would be a very unfriendly budget for most people when the details were looked at, as this character just could not restrain his glee.

    Another interesting thought thrown in the pot by one of the hacks is that for Shorten to win at the next election, Abbott has to still be leader.

    Goodness, how the so-called gurus can have it from both sides.

    I was under the impression that Labor was chucked out because it changed leaders.

    The recent experience in Victoria seems to favour the view that – the old cliche – governments lose office rather than oppositions win them.

    It is interesting that Sales last night did everything she could to challenge Shorten to bring on his policies.

    Pity she did not adopt the same approach to Abbott in the rare times he actually fronted for the 7.30 Report while LOTO.

    And yes, the softly-softly voice of Born Again Morrison is so blatantly obvious to verge on the sickening.

  21. guytar @ 135

    The sight of Hockey begging Andrews to spend money yesterday was fun to watch.

    According to Joe, the east-west toll road is/was important because it meant lots of jobs. Whether it was a valid project or not appears not to matter at all.

    On that basis we could employ people digging holes and filling them up again.

  22. [The truly bizarre possibility is that Hockey is (very) secretly glad that the Senate’s de facto quantitative easing by way of opposing all sorts of social spending cuts provides some underpinning for consumer confidence and consumer spending.]

    Probably. Sadly the boost from the senate blocking most of the true nastiness is only partially countering the hit to confidence their announcement and the governments general talking down of the economy has delivered (on top of the actual real hits). But then for Hockey to be even secretly glad of this assumes he’s not a complete moron, and the evidence for that is scant.

  23. Corio

    [On that basis we could employ people digging holes and filling them up again.]

    Gomer Pyle could be granted a 457 visa.

    (Also has painting rocks expertise.)

  24. And we in WA, have just been given news of a new tax from the State government.

    It appears that “up to $100 per vehicle” (if a car) and “over $100 a vehicle” (if a truck will) will be added to vehicle registration as a “congestion tax”.

    It is estimated this ‘new tax’ (from over 2 million vehicles in WA) will raise millions and will help pay for the new rail tunnel to the airport.

    What was that about Hockey asking all and sundry to spend big for Christmas?

    It goes without saying that the Emperor made absolutely no mention of this new tax at the last election campaign

  25. Hockey’s Christmas message.

    Labor has left us with a debt and deficit disaster from which we may never recover if the senate doesn’t allow us to get on with sensible, prudent reforms such as forcing:

    – unemployed kids into homelessness
    – pensioners to eat dog food (and not go to the doctor if it disagrees with them, which it shouldn’t because it will be manufactured in China and sold to us cheaply care of the FTA)
    – bright low SES school leavers to study beauty therapy and thence flip patties until their retirement on a disability pension at age 30.

    But…

    2015 will be a gloriously prosperous year for Australia.

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