10.12pm. The tide continues to go out on the Greens in Richmond, where the ABC computer now has Labor ahead (just).
9.30pm. Okay, got it to open now. Albert Park now being called for Labor, and quite comfortably at that. Frankston still down as Labor gain, unless Steve Bracks had better knowledge when he spoke earlier. There’s now a 2.0% swing to Labor in Ivanhoe, so that danger has passed. Nationals ahead in Morwell, so obviously that’s one we’ll keep tracking over the next few days. Richmond is, in fact, dead level – if that’s a trend, the Greens won’t win after all. Maybe there’s something in the idea that Labor will do better on pre-polls, maybe not. Either way, it’s staying on the watch list. Ripon now Liberal retain, so a good show by Labor but probably no cigar. The ABC computer says Liberal retain in South Barwon, but it’s on the basis of a very slender lead, so obviously it’s only just inside its error margin.
9.28pm. Been attending to a bit of dinner, and now I can’t get the ABC results page to open. But I understand it’s wound Richmond back from Greens gain to Greens ahead.
8.49pm. Steve Bracks now says Frankston is very tight. 12.7% of Frankstonians were sufficiently silly in the head to vote for Geoff Shaw, and these preferences are going hard to the Liberals, which the ABC computer probably didn’t see coming.
8.40pm. One thing I will say about Richmond is that Stephen Jolly (9.3%) is doing a lot better than the Sex Party (3.1%), which is presumably good news for the Greens.
8.36pm. Mary Wooldridge now sounding confident about Ripon — perhaps over-confident but clearly it’s close.
8.35pm. Confusion over Richmond now being acknowledged. Steve Bracks not calling it, but he doesn’t sound all that confident either. Labor have been creeping up in South Barwon – now dead level.
8.30pm. That narrow Labor lead in Ripon never went away. ABC calling it for Labor, but the Liberals might still hope for pre-polls.
8.28pm. ABC now calling Albert Park for Labor. I suggested on News Radio earlier there was still a worst case scenario for Labor where they only one 44 seats, but I’d say that dispatches of it.
8.25pm. Greens now ahead in Brunswick, but I don’t really get the Richmond numbers.
8.22pm. Back now, in case you’ve missed me. ABC computer still calling Richmond for the Greens, but there’s still only one booth on 2PP, the primary vote movements look pretty modest, and maybe Labor will be hopeful about pre-polls.
8.03pm. If you’re a fan of my dulcet tones, I’ll be on News Radio at 8.10. Posting activity has lightened because I’m stepping back and doing my homework.
7.59pm. ABC computer no longer calling South Barwon for Liberal – “LIB AHEAD”.
7.54pm. Prahran interesting: very tight for Labor and Greens to make second, whoever does it will ride home over Libs in preferences. Steve Bracks thinks pre-polls will decided it in Labor’s favour.
7.52pm. Okay, Labor-friendly primary votes are being recorded from Richmond, but they’re swinging big to Richmond. Too early to call, but closer than I indicated. Northcote a bridge too far for the Liberals though. Greens pretty much home in Melbourne. Tight in Brunswick, Labor slightly ahead.
7.50pm. Steve Bracks says he “believes” Labor will win Ripon, calls clean sweep of sandbelt with Prahran included, says Morwell can’t be counted out yet, sounds slightly dubious but still hopeful about Eildon, and calls the election for Labor.
7.49pm. ABC computer has Labor ahead in Ivanhoe now. Craig Langdon polling weakly at 2.5%, so the Liberals’ strength here is actually on their own back.
7.48pm. Greens looking very good in Melbourne though.
7.46pm. Getting very mixed signals on Richmond, which I believe Antony just said was one of two seats where the computer has them ahead. I wonder if he might have had that wrong, or whether I heard wrong. With three booths counted, Greens on only 21.9% of primary vote: with 2600 counted on 2PP, 5.5% swing to Labor.
7.45pm. Labor on track to win Prahran, says Antony. The computer is calling it for them.
7.44pm. Antony turns on his prediction software: Labor definitely 45, which means Labor definitely wins.
7.43pm. Independent Suzanna Sheed almost level with Nationals in Shepparton on primary vote with 40.3% counted. Unless there’s some regional peculiarity brewing, she should win comfortably.
7.42pm. Right down to the wire in Eildon and Ripon.
7.41pm. Much less good for the Greens though in Richmond.
7.40pm. Another latte belt update. The ABC computer is calling Melbourne for the Greens, and contrary to what I said just now, with nose in front in Northcote. I suspect that projecting Labor-versus-Greens is harder than Labor-versus-Liberal though.
7.38pm. Now over 30% counted in Ripon, Labor still with its nose in front.
7.37pm. Steve Bracks reckons Labor ahead in Morwell, which is not what the ABC computer was saying last I’ve looked, and the Nats are under pressure from an independent in Shepparton.
7.36pm. Mary Wooldridge still thinking the Liberals are ahead in Ivanhoe. She’s talking up the swing to the Libs in Narre Warren North, but clearly it won’t cost them the seat, so it sounds like grasping at straws.
7.33pm. ABC computer calling Bentleigh for Labor: 16.1% counted, 3.0% swing to Labor, 0.9% Liberal margin.
7.31pm. Glenn Druery tweets: “On these very, very early numbers minor parties are being elected in the Upper House.. hehehehe.”
7.30pm. Sky News calls the election for Labor, whatever that means exactly.
7.29pm. Labor not home yet in Cranbourne: 16.9% counted, 0.2% swing to Liberal, 1.1% Labor margin. Antony noting consistent 3-4% swings, entirely in line with that poll trend.
7.27pm. ABC computer calls Yan Yean for Labor.
7.25pm. Good early result from the Liberals for Ivanhoe, which they need. Labor “on the cusp of victory” says Antony, summarising situation well.
7.24pm. ABC computer calls South Barwon and Gembrook for Liberal, so certainly not a complete bloodbath.
7.23pm. Ripon likely Labor gain, says ABC computer. The Libs would want to have bagged that one by now — 16.6% counted. But observe my earlier note of caution about Ripon, as earlier reporting booths will be the Swan Hill ones where Nationals are losing sitting member.
7.18pm. ABC TV has more up to date figures from Frankston, with 5.7% counted. This is from the Liberal end of the seat (i.e. the south), and there’s a 6.0% swing to Labor. Maybe the rest of the electorate will behave differently though.
7.16pm. Sandbelt update: Steve Bracks says 2% swing to Labor in Carrum – very tight. ABC numbers from Bentleigh trailing behind what James Campbell is hearing, probably close there but maybe with Labor with nose in front. Labor looking like taking Mordialloc. But next to nothing from Frankston.
7.16pm. Liberals actually not out of the woods in Eildon, but more likely to win than not.
7.15pm. Labor to hold Monbulk, barring big late reversal.
7.14pm. ABC computer calls Bellarine for Labor.
7.13pm. Antony pours cold water on Eildon. Data entry error, by the sounds.
7.12pm. Antony making troubling noises for Coalition: seven or so Labor gains, precisely in line with those poll tracking projections. Mary Wooldridge sounding grim. Steve Bracks says 6% swing to Labor in Bellarine, which they need.
7.10pm. James Campbell of Herald-Sun tweets four booths in Bentleigh are all swinging to Labor, though not by much.
7.09pm. ABC computer very interestingly calls Eildon for Labor with 10.8% swing, although with only 7.7% counted I’d keep that on watch status. Bendigo East and Wendouree called for Labor.
7.07pm. Double-digit swing in Malvern with over 20% counted. Possibly part of a broad trend of these areas getting less blue, without putting the Liberals in any danger.
7.05pm. Over 10% counted in Morwell, 4.6% swing to Labor, but Nationals to hold.
7.01pm. Okay, first numbers from the sandbelt. Mordialloc: two booths with 4.7% counted, big 7.5% swing to Labor. This is the Labor-voting end of the electorate, but still, a big swing’s a big swing.
7.00pm. Mary Wooldridge is also hearing of a swing to Labor in the other Ballarat seat of Wendouree. Big swing to Labor in Benambra, so maybe Bill Tilley hasn’t made himself popular. He’s still safe though.
6.59pm. ABC calls Euroa for the Nationals, in case there was any notion the Liberals might win there.
6.58pm. ABC computer apparently calling Buninyong for Labor, with 5.5% swing.
6.57pm. 7.3% counted in Burwood, 2.6% swing to Labor. The Liberals were getting a bit worried about that one late in the campaign. Jeff Kennett’s old seat, which Labor held from the 1999 by-election after Kennett quit until 2010. Not a must-win seat though by any means.
6.55pm. A solid 6.2% counted in Bundoora, very little swing.
6.54pm. ABC computer calling Macedon for Labor with 5.1% swing in their favour, off their existing margin of 2.3%.
6.49pm. Only 1.8% counted in Ripon, but still, a 2.3% swing to Labor. But we’re probably talking the northern end of the electorate that was formerly in Swan Hill, where the Nationals are losing the personal vote of a sitting member. Things could well swing around when we get bigger booths at the southern end, where it’s Labor who are losing the sitting member. In Yan Yean, first booth swings big to Labor, but only 0.5% counted.
6.47pm. Really big Liberal swing in Polwarth with 5.3% counted.
6.46pm. The ABC projects the first booth from Ripon as a 10.5% swing to the Liberals.
6.42pm. Steve Bracks on ABC reckons 3% swing to Labor in Eltham and 7% swing in Narre Warren North, which would be great news for them – but Mary Wooldridge says she’s seeing the opposite from the latter. She also relates a 1.4% swing on early figures from Ripon, which is less than they would be hoping for.
6.40pm. Big swing to Labor in first small booth in Nepean, so swings and roundabouts at this stage.
6.39pm. Now up to 4.1% counted in Hawthorn, 1.8% swing to the Liberals, which is very mildly encouraging for them.
6.36pm. Antony relates the Nationals are well ahead in Euroa, where the Liberals have annoyed them by fielding a candidate. Maybe the Liberals well do better when bigger centres come in. Small swing to the Liberals in Buninyong, but a tiny rural booth – this one will be decided in bigger Ballarat booths.
6.33pm. Status quo result in the first Hawthorn booth. Big swing to Labor in Lowan, reflecting Hugh Delahunty’s retirement, but still safe Nationals. Swing to the Liberals in Polwarth. Nothing of real interest though.
6.30pm. Single booths trickling in from various electorates around the place, but Macedon still the only one that’s marginal.
6.27pm. Antony on TV says tiny first booth in Macedon has a 0.5% swing to Labor, which they hold by 2.3%.
6.22pm. Antony Green tweets that that Mildura projection is based on 90 votes. Still reckon you can take that one to the bank.
6.15pm. A booth from Mildura is in, and it’s enough for the ABC computer to call it for the Nationals. A foregone conclusion of course, but there it is.
6pm. Welcome to my live blogging of the Victorian election count, for which polls have just closed. The very first results should start trickling in in about half an hour. Known knowns:
• As I type, a Newspoll exit poll should be going to air. I don’t believe the record of Newspoll exit polling has been all that special, but maybe they’ve improved. In any event, watch this space. UPDATE: Newspoll keeps it simple by concurring with Galaxy in having it at 51-49 to Labor.
• A Galaxy exit poll conducted at polling booths today has Labor leading 51-49, from primary votes of 43% for the Coalition, 38% for Labor and 12% for the Greens. But a similar exercise conducted at pre-poll booths found Labor leading 52.5-47.5. Since maybe a bit over 70% of voters are likely to be cast today (meaning ordinary votes plus absent votes) and nearly 20% cast at pre-polls, and the rest should consist of postals which will be more favourable to the Liberals, this suggests to me that the current BludgerTrack reading is maybe half a point too favourable to Labor, although that’s well within any plausible error margin. So stay tuned, in other words.
• Unlike at federal elections, pre-poll votes will not be counted this evening. So if it’s close, expect tonight’s proceedings to be inconclusive. If so, the VEC will swing into action counting pre-poll votes, as they did in 2010 to resolve the crucial seat of Bentleigh.
• Labor are crying foul that the Greens are not directing preferences in a whole swathe of very important seats, namely Bellarine, Bentleigh, Buninyong, Carrum, Forest Hill, Mordialloc, Monbulk, Ringwood, South Barwon, Wendouree and Yan Yean – and apparently the Liberals issued an open ticket in Melbourne, which gives Labor good cause to feel suspicious about a possible deal between them.
Are the CFMEU notorious in Victoria because in SA, an ad saying Labor were in bed with the CFMEU would be meaningless. I don’t know if we even have them here.
Good grief! Wooldrige must be upset! Blathering on about the unions.
Seriously? Delahunty STILL going on about the CFMEU.
Totally out of touch.
“@political_alert: Victorian Premier Denis Napthine conceding to Opposition Leader Dan Andrews on the phone right now, Sky News’ @AhronYoung reports #vicvotes”
[Milanda Rout retweeted
news.com.au @newscomauHQ 56s56 seconds ago
Sky News reports Denis Napthine is on the phone conceding to Daniel Andrews now http://bit.ly/1w3IwoG #Vicvotes]
Only 41.1% counted in Prahran, the Prahran booth and prepoll/postals to come. Will come down to pre-poll/postal to see who finishes 2nd in primary.
Whichever of ALP or Green finish 2nd in Prahran on Primary will finish the seat. I’d favour ALP but too close to call.
John Reidy …. the hypocrisy of the LNP … David Davis grumbling about the unhealthy influence of paramedics, ambos, nurses, firefighters,Trades Hall …. ordinary people out there campaigning and good on them.
Not a word about the blanket support and propaganda for the LNP from the Murdoch press.
I say congratulations to all those Victorian ambo staff, those firefighters and paramedics who put in the hard yards over the last few months .. they were there most mornings and evenings at my local railway station. Always polite and friendly. PEOPLE POWER!
Dave, I believe that the other PB Tories have abandoned ship.
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I think the Greens have a good run on preferences.
Family First is preferencing the Liberals second, so they are not of help to the ALP. Their vote is also low.
The Animal Justice Party is preferencing the Greens second.
https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/htcvs/HTVC/45-State%20Election%202014/AJP-Prahan-FRONT.pdf
None of the other candidates had registered HTVs and their vote was also low.
All this favours or does not harm the Greens.
Prahran booth is not in yet.
Postals are likely to be bad for the Greens.
I do know about pre-poll.
Oops, Wooldridge not Delahunty.
Martin B
Apparently Napthine is on the phone , as we speak, talking to Andrews. Concession speech due in a few minutes…… according to Sky.
wooldridge bashing unions.
They just dont get it.
The have bashed unions all campaign and they lost.
What don’t they understand?
The crowd at Liberal HQ in Bentleigh looking like a school of stunned mullet!
I’ll be interested to see how the pre-polls and absentees play out, especially given the large number.
I have a feeling they won’t be much different from today’s votes.
My feeling is that even though many voters only start to pay attention in the last week (or even last 3 days), in this election overall, people had already made up their mind.
The best the Libs have to hope for is the Greens taking Richmond, Prahran and maybe Brunswick. It’s still unlikely for force them to minority or bare majority in the lower house.
Ted Baillieu and Kim Wells have a lot to answer for they did nothing for two years and wrecked the Liberals chances.
I only hope the Libs are smart enough to make Michael O’Brien the Leader of the Liberal Party after the election.
A big reminder to Abbott that the people will not suffer failure or mismanagement and will just as easily throw you out after one term!
Honestly just look at them in Bentleigh! The faces of the modern Liberal Party.
[ The crowd at Liberal HQ in Bentleigh looking like a school of stunned mullet! ]
Born to rule come a gutsa.
abbott on the turps tonight ?
Another bad week coming up – without and within.
Tom – my instinct still says that Labor will win in Prahran but we’ll see.
John Reidy
as a keen watcher of prepolls versus those on the day, if a party is polling more highly in the week the prepolls open, that does tend to be reflected in prepolling.
Rossmore,
very impressive, aren’t Ambos and paramedics the most respected professions in the community ?
That would have been very powerful.
And as you say, the Age is fading, Murdoch dominates press in Vic and they were so one sided.
[Honestly just look at them in Bentleigh! The faces of the modern Liberal Party.]
The thing that’s struck me about the Vic election coverage on the ABC is that if its choice of interviewees is any indication, there’s no cultural diversity in any of the winning candidates!
What was the male/female successful candidate break down?
It sort of looked good to me.
Dio
The CFMEU are here in SA but it is much less of an issue. There are fewer big construction projects, and not really a local equivalent of Grocon IMO. Civil construction in Melbourne is little better than organised crime at times, and there are some pretty hard cases there on both sides.
[Tom – my instinct still says that Labor will win in Prahran but we’ll see.]
Bracks agrees with you, as he just said.
Steve Bracks confident that ALP will win Prahran after postal votes and prepolls.
[Looking at the seats from a previous post Labor held 40 (Bill Bowe’s details of seats) They could lose 3 to the Greens taking them back to 37. Don’t they need 45 to govern in their own right. Can they get 8 from the Liberals/Nationals and if so what are they.
The basic problem here is that you’re using the post-redistribution notional seats starting point of 40, when Labor have in fact won all but one (and maybe the whole lot) of the seats the redistribution theoretically cost them.]
I get all that but what I was trying to establish was how many seats are now held by Labor and using your previous post as a starting point. Perhaps I should have asked how many seats which were listed on the left are now on the right.
Zoomster, I agree (in previous elections) pre-polls reflected the polls at the time.
I’ll just be interested to see what the difference is.
So what to people think about the so called ‘narrowing’ in the last week, given tonight’s result?
The VEC has the Lib ahead in Prahran on Lib-Lab matchup thanks to Green preferences, thus electing a gay-baiting hypocrite Lib over a progressive Labor gay man. Shame Greens shame!
Imagine if Abbott HAD HAD an impact on the Victorian elections…
what happened in sheparton?
[Dave, I believe that the other PB Tories have abandoned ship.]
Perhaps they have run out of talking points, and mission control is frantically writing Napthine’s “I was robbed” speech. Very hard to come up with lines of your own to type.
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Preferences are likely to favour the Greens in Prahran so the ALP would need a primary lead, ahead of the Greens, probably in the triple figures to win Prahran.
Union bashing not so effective when the evil unionists are nurses, ambos, firies etc. Any chance Bill Shorten can sign them up for federal campaigns? It must be possible to improve people’s sense of who the unions are? [and at the same time argue that union are representative bodies, up against the LNP’s massive financial resources of self-interested corporations]
Napthine concedes defeat.
CFMEU!
CFMEU!
CFMEU!
FROM MONDAY, NO TICKET, NO START!
Having a quick look at early postal votes from Richmond and Northcote the ALP are polling 2.5 to 3 votes for each Green vote.
Looking at Prahran even if the pre-polls are even the postals if replicated should push the ALP ahead of the Greens an hence gain Prahran
[Barnacle Phil @text_appeal 3m3 minutes ago
Victorian voters haven’t thrown LNP out – they just made a rhetorical flourish ]
So much for the meme that voters always give Governments a second term.
I’ll give the Tories a tick No booing at mention of Andrews name.
Naphthine talking up all the stuff Tones crushed out of the place! team idiot the winner
I agree with Greg, the Liberals spent way too long dong little
Brunswick and Richmond to the ALP and I think on these numbers that Prahran will go to the Greens, I image many of the early voters would haev been younger people hence they might be stronger fr the Greens than many here are predicting.
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The ALP had a 2CP lead in the Prahran booth, which has still not reported even a primary, of 207 votes (851 to 644).
While the VEC does not show which booths have reported, I believe that Windsor (which was the most recent 2CP report) is the other polling booth that has not reported. It had an ALP 2CP lead of 105 votes.
That is a total of 312 vote lead before the swing to the ALP
http://www.vec.vic.gov.au/Results/state2010TCPbyVCPrahranDistrict.html
I give Napthine a tick for signing up to the NDIS.
Nap time farewell ?
I know Tom I was just grandstanding. Perhaps a little ironically.
[ Barnacle Phil @text_appeal 3m3 minutes ago
Victorian voters haven’t thrown LNP out – they just made a rhetorical flourish ]
They have also been *liberated*
As well as contributing an efficiency dividend.
I meant Gary
This government has no one to blame but itself, Having viewed this government up close I noticed very early on that it had very little going on.
The moral of the story tonight should send a clear and thunderous message to Canberra to lift its game.
@smh: Tony Abbott sweats as Victorian voters cast harsh judgment, ousting Denis Napthine. http://t.co/xSrom3OcHs
With all the talk about the PUP making a huge impact here in Victoria… they seem to have all but disappeared.
Good to see lunatic fringe parties such as Rise Up Australia not doing well at all.
Has Clive stormed out yet?
d-money ….. the paramedics and firies campaigned brilliantly here in Victoria. Most mornings and night for months at my local station, first to hand me a leaflet at the polling booth today.
A simple message, Put the LNP last.
What’s not to like about proud front line staff defending their vital role in the community. The LNP demonising them as “unionists’ just got no traction in this election.
What the LNP forget at their peril is that all of us, our families and friends rely on the professionalism and commitment of our public sector at various points in our lives.