Crikey has published a Victorian state voting intention result collated from Essential Research’s last three weeks of polling, encompassing 794 respondents. It shows Labor with a lead of 53-47, compared with 52-48 from its October result (UPDATE: Peter Lewis of Essential Research is apparently out correcting the two-party result to 52-48) (UPDATE 2: Scratch that – Essential Research has been in touch to say 53-47 is correct). Labor, the Coalition and the Greens are all up a point on the primary vote, to 39%, 40% and 13% respectively. There’s also further attitudinal polling, which I’ll also cover shortly.
Also along shortly: an upper house guide at last, some campaign updates, and a revised poll tracker including the Morgan SMS poll and this one.
UPDATE: Here is a full release from Essential Research featuring party most trusted to handle various issues, and the finding that 38% of respondents felt they would be better off under a Labor government versus 30% for Liberal.
JOHN Howard and Jeff Kennett’s toe cutter of choice has signed off on Victorian Labor’s election costings.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/victorian-labor-election-costings-signed-off/story-e6frgczx-1227137011178
Cricket Australia is reporting that Phillip Hughes has died.
This is utterly dreadful news for those of us who love the game and admired the spirit that Hughes brought to the contest.
Hughes was regarded by his teammates and opponents as a warm and gentle man, as well as a player of great talent.
I also feel for Sean Abbott, who surely could not have imagined this day as he ran in to bowl with Hughes not out on 63. I hope someone well placed to give him the support he needs is with him right now.
Vale Phillip Hughes.
Labor seemed certain to lose in SA early this year. But, despite being outpolled 53-47, it sandbagged just enough seats to hang on with the help of the donkey vote.
Can this happen for the Libs in Victoria?
You’d think Frankston might be the first seat to fall, but Labor has drawn the crow in a very big field which guarantees a large informal vote.
I apologise. It is distasteful to talk politics at this sad time, even on a political blogsite. Vale Phil Hughes.
TT @103
That would be a combination of the Coalition managing to hold onto their marginal seats, and Labor somehow only able to increase the swing on their safe seats.
Does anyone know the ETA’s on the rest of the Victorian election opinion polls? I assume there are still some to come tomorrow.
http://www.crikey.com.au/2014/11/27/poll-bludger-vic-libs-heading-for-the-rocks-as-independents-snipe/
Interesting. Bowe’s paywalled article mentioned some independent candidates running as “Independent Green” and “Independent Labour” with nearly matching colours to boot, and yet preferencing the Greens and Labor last.
Fran
Whilst it is sad, its also freakiest for the bowler wouldn’t have expected it, I don’t know what the state of the pitch was but being a first day I couldn’t image it being anything other than a flat deck and being on 63, I image Hughes was well set.
I do hope the Cricket community doesn’t forget the bowler in all this for he would be feeling shattered.
I do wonder about Labor’s plan for 24 hour pharmacies. I would have thought a system similar to what I saw in France would be better, with Pharmacies taking it in turns to be open during the night, with a special light/sign signifying which is open. I’m not sure if pharmacies in France are all private businesses like here, though.
*sigh* Apologies.
Toorak Toff@103
The real issue in the SA election outcome is that the Coalition’s 2PP majority is wasted in safe rural seats in that state. There wasn’t any special sandbagging. The Liberals actually got a better swing in Labor-held seats than their own, but what they failed to do was pick up a bigger swing in Labor marginals than Labor safe seats.
In Victoria, if the Liberals stay in office despite losing the 2PP 52-48ish it will be as a result of personal vote effects and excellent sandbagging. For them to stay in office despite losing the 2PP 53-47 is extremely unlikely.
Kevin Bonham,
[In Victoria, if the Liberals stay in office despite losing the 2PP 52-48ish it will be as a result of personal vote effects and excellent sandbagging. For them to stay in office despite losing the 2PP 53-47 is extremely unlikely.]
I imagine in order for that to happen there would need a strong swing to Labor in National held seats and seats in the far West, which I don’t see as at all likely – apart from maybe Morwell and Narracan. A strong swing in the Liberals’ Eastern suburbs stronghold would still likely deliver Labor enough seats to gain Government (Ringwood, Burwood, Bayswater and Forest Hill – and Croydon, Evelyn, Mount Waverly and Ferntree Gully all containing areas won by Labor at some point under Bracks)
The creation of a proposed Great Forest National Park is an important election issue: http://www.greatforestnationalpark.com.au/
[The Liberal Party has stayed silent on the issue and has not yet released an environmental policy, and in all likelihood won’t release one at all, as it did in 2010.
The Greens support the park and say declaring it will be a condition of forming government should they gain the seats of Melbourne or Richmond and neither Labor nor Liberal have enough seats to govern in their own right.
The Labor Party’s long-awaited environmental policy tacitly acknowledges that the Leadbeater’s possum is on the verge of extinction and the Victorian logging industry is in crisis. But Labor has committed only to an industry taskforce to look at the issues, with no details, no timetable and no plan if an agreement can’t be reached. It’s a non-policy that could easily slip from view post-election.]
http://www.abc.net.au/environment/articles/2014/11/27/4137349.htm
I did a a a basic regression analysis of 2010 to find where parties did notably better or worse than you would expect from social composition of electorates: for Labor it’s provincial cities, for Libs the eastern suburbs & for Greens the inner four. Ripon has an abnormally high Labor vote. Outline at http://www.geoffrobinson.info/?p=1405 and full results at https://www.dropbox.com/sh/pfu66om50bukx38/AAARpB6DJHnbDgkkAdyfml-Ta?dl=0
Just got robo-called by Dennis Napthine.
The traffic’s been extra shit this week. Pity no one believes E_W link is the answer. Getting rid of level crossings and bettter public trasnport sounds the go.
Galaxy exit poll link. ALP 52-48
https://au.news.yahoo.com/video/watch/25632397/exit-poll-suggests-labor-victory/?cmp=twitter
Only 4 seats polled but show a 5% swing to ALP from similar poll last election
I spent some time at the local Early Voting Centre today. At one stage, I counted 26 people handing out how-to-vote material. I felt for the non-voting pedestrians trying to walk down the street. Interestingly, there were six ambos there with put the Liberals last cards. They were informed, passionate, angry, determined and articulate – and they would not have been there at all if the government had simply settled their dispute and not told lies about them.
Geoff,
Ripon had a very popular local member in Joe Helper who has retired. This is why the Libs think they are in with a chance there.
The rest of your analysis is truly from the “No shit, Sherlock” school of politics.
Chris,
Good to see you around again!
You’ve always been a thoughtful contributor.
Cheers.
Hi, Greensborough Growler.
It’s a particularly hectic time, but I can appear here occasionally – just on the Victorian election threads.
I don’t know how long you have been growling in Greensborough, but you may remember my election campaigns of 40 years ago – yes, it’s that long – and I always try to be thoughtful. Slogans have their place, but a lot of issues are actually very complex and we need politicians patient enough to explain them to us.
Im not sure how I feel about these early exit polls – as much as I like this particular result.
lefty e@121
I suppose if you look at the MOE of the difference between two samples with about 800 observations … its about 5%. Which means the swing in the marginals is somewhere between 0% and 10%.
You can probably narrow that down a fair bit with some fancy Bayesian stuff. Don’t know how to do that … so i will move on….
The general theme seems that polls have pointed to a tpp in the range 52/48 to 53/47. Which means that Naptine has a chance with a bit of a late swing and getting the marginals juuust right.
I think the $1.20 odds on labor are about right.
lefty e
If Labor are polling 52/48 with about a third of the vote counted at the pre-poll, it means the Libs will need to score around 55% on Saturday to break even.
Ain’t going to happen.
Chris,
I’m a rusted on Labor man and have lived in the area all my life.
So yes, I remember your old campaigns. I’m sure I voted against you a number of times. But, I’m also glad you’re still around making a contribution with your ideas.
Greensborough Growler@123
Note quite sure that adds up – I’d make it 51/49 on polling day to be square.
But I do think the high level of pre-polls in an environment that has been toxic for the Lib suggest it requires something special on polling day.
WTR,
I’d also suggest the profile of the people pre-polling would skew to the Libs demographics.
(0.48*0.33) + (0.51*0.67) = 0.5 approximately
So the Liberals would have to get 51% of the remaining 2/3 of the vote, which would be a “swing” of 3% from that current figure.
In any case even that would seem unlikely. Never thought Sportsbet would pay out early – they obviously just do this to get attention. Especially as they are still taking bets on Labor.
And Libs drifting out to $5.65
gg wtr – yes it would be 55% needed if 2/3 of the vote gave you Labor ahead 52/48.
127
If they payout while still taking bets, can you take they payout and then re-bet it?
RR,
Thank you for the basic maths lesson.
My grandpa who could neither read nor write told me if you bought something for 2pence and sold it for 4pence that a 2 per cent profit margin was more than enough to live on.
129 – certainly more profitable than Medibank Private shares!
William,
When exactly does the final pre-Vic-election bludgertrack come out?
http://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/victorian-election-2014-voters-united-in-link-support/story-fnii5sms-1227137560265
[Victorian election 2014: Voters united in Link support
November 27, 2014 10:35PM
Matt Johnston and James Campbell
Herald Sun
VICTORIANS overwhelmingly want the East West Link built, whoever wins the state election.
The finding comes from a new Herald Sun/Galaxy poll that also shows Labor still on track to take government, ahead of the Coalition on a two-party-preferred basis by 52 points to 48.
About 60 per cent of people said they wanted the link built regardless of who they planned to vote for. This included 43 per cent of Labor supporters.
The poll also shows Opposition Leader Daniel Andrews has surged in popularity, drawing close to Denis Napthine as preferred premier.
Mr Andrews is preferred by 38 per cent of voters, up eight points in the past week, even though the Coalition has spent millions of dollars in advertising attacking him.
The result comes despite the poll showing 46 per cent of those polled said Labor was too close to the militant construction union the CFMEU.
The Coalition’s vote has not moved from 40 per cent, between the Herald Sun/Galaxy poll done in October, and the recent poll of 1090 voters done on November 25 and 26. At the 2010 election, the Coalition’s primary vote was 44.8 per cent.
Galaxy pollster David Briggs said Labor was holding a comfortable lead.
“On a uniform basis, a swing of 3.6 per cent would result in Labor winning as many as 50 seats, however, local factors and incumbency are likely to reduce this number,” Mr Briggs said.
The poll shows support for the Greens is at 13 per cent, and minor parties or independents have 8 per cent support.]
I am entirely confident of Labor victory Saturday. Have ben for months.
My point: not sure Im cool about this whole trend to pre-polling IF its going to come with fait-accomplit style exit polls.
a. As GG notes,the pre-pollers are not representative and
b. Too much room for mischief making in the press.
c.If this takes off we;ll get gun-for-hire crews doing private exit polling.
I seriously think exit-polls should be banned until the big day.
New thread.
[Mr Andrews is preferred by 38 per cent of voters, up eight points in the past week, even though the Coalition has spent millions of dollars in advertising attacking him.]
Even though?
At this point all LNP ads say to the voter: “only THIS MAN can stop us ramming a billion more ads up your arse.”