Crikey has published a Victorian state voting intention result collated from Essential Research’s last three weeks of polling, encompassing 794 respondents. It shows Labor with a lead of 53-47, compared with 52-48 from its October result (UPDATE: Peter Lewis of Essential Research is apparently out correcting the two-party result to 52-48) (UPDATE 2: Scratch that Essential Research has been in touch to say 53-47 is correct). Labor, the Coalition and the Greens are all up a point on the primary vote, to 39%, 40% and 13% respectively. There’s also further attitudinal polling, which I’ll also cover shortly.
Also along shortly: an upper house guide at last, some campaign updates, and a revised poll tracker including the Morgan SMS poll and this one.
UPDATE: Here is a full release from Essential Research featuring party most trusted to handle various issues, and the finding that 38% of respondents felt they would be better off under a Labor government versus 30% for Liberal.
136 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor in Victoria”
116 on the previous thread
bbp (last thread) – Yes Labor held Hawthorn 1952-1955, then the member split from the ALP and lost the seat in 1955 when Labor lost office. Walter Jona got the seat when the previous Liberal was disendorsed because of some dodgy legal dealings.
My mum knew Walter Jona from childhood – she said that on his way home from work every day he would doorknock ten to twenty houses or so, and basically covered most of electorate by himself in his first term.
The only timre I’ve been doorknocked by a candidate was by the Labor candidate in an NT election – but thier electorates are much smaller, about 4000 voters each.
Okay. So, with a margin of error of 3.5% we are looking at something between a narrow LNP victory or a landslide to the ALP – had the election taken place over the last three weeks.
107 on the previous thread (a repost of my last comment on the previous thread).
You have missed the point of Melbourne crossing the Yarra. Its population and thus enrolment, is growing above the state average and so is that of Albert Park. The Melbourne you propose would be closer to 2 redistribution quotas than one. You essentially propose putting the whole of the existing Melbourne, with the exception of Kensington, in the new river-crossing Melbourne. That will not work.
Also Fitzroy is not in Melbourne, it is in Richmond (apart from a small part of North Richmond, which is in Brunswick).
A river-crossing Melbourne Would include Docklands, the CBD, East Melbourne and maybe West Melbourne from the existing Melbourne. It would include only Southbank, Docklands (which crosses the Yarra), South Wharf, South Melbourne and maybe the part of Melbourne (3004) that goes down St Kilda Rd.
Melbourne would then be in Southern Metro Region.
Carlton, North Melbourne, Parkville, Kensington and possibly Newmarket and Flemmington would go into either a recreated North Melbourne or Carlton district or a new district of Parkville or Royal Park.
If Labor are up in these three weeks compared to the Essential October result it can only be bad news for the Coalition, especially if 35% votes are pre-poll.
I think we need more polls
I see LNP 40, ALP 39, Grn 13, Oth 8 = TPP of LNP 53 / ALP 47.
Which seems reasonable when TPP in 2010 election for ALP was 48.4 from ALP 36.2 and Grn 11.2.
RR @ 5
I wonder if there is any relationship between the level of pre-polls and the extent to which the electorate has already decided.
That is – is a high level of pre-polling predictive of an electorate with only a limited scope for changing?
[Tony Abbott warns Victoria: build East West Link or lose $3bn
Prime minister writes open letter to leaders of Victoria’s main parties telling them the federal funding can only be used on the controversial toll road
Wednesday 26 November 2014 12.25 AEST
Tony Abbott has written an open letter to the leaders of Victoria’s main parties to “make it absolutely clear” that $3bn in federal funding cannot be used for anything except the controversial East West Link.
In the letter addressed to the premier, Denis Napthine, and the Labor opposition leader, Daniel Andrews, Abbott said the East West Link had become an election issue and he wanted to be clear the federal funding could not be allocated elsewhere.]
https://twitter.com/MartinPakulaMP/status/537076546486280192 see picture in tweet
[Martin Pakula @MartinPakulaMP
More evidence that HTV cards are still being handed out for supposedly disendorsed candidates in Thomastown #VicVotes
1:53 PM – 25 Nov 2014]
99 on the previous thread
The Greens candidate in Footscray is working really hard and have Adam Bandt 2013 reelection tactics to use.
Catherine Cummings vote was about 15% in 2006 and 10% in 2010. That is a decline. She was also not facing competition from Voice for the West at the last election. I predict her vote will go down. She may even be overtaken by Voice for the West.
The Greens are still in with a chance at second place.
[In Walter Jona’s wikipedia entry, it mentions that Hawthorn included parts of Richmond when he first contested the seat in 1964.]
To be fair, they’re next to each other so this is not surprising. If the other eastern electoral boundaries press into Hawthorn, it might just spill over the river.
With Footscray heavily gentrifying, I am not surprised.
It’s still a fairly safe seat for Labor so I don’t see any Labor posters, but I see a lot of businesses having Liberal posters (especially the Vietnamese businesses considering the nature of the candidate).
Catherine Cummings posters do show up in the front yard of certain homes considering her impact as a councillor.
Just speaking as someone who hangs around Footscray a lot.
They’re still fighting for the upper house seats.
Can you recall if the state seat of Hawthorn during the 1950s included parts of Richmond?
Leroy Lynch @ 9
In the letter addressed to the premier, Denis Napthine, and the Labor opposition leader, Daniel Andrews, Abbott said the East West Link had become an election issue and he wanted to be clear the federal funding could not be allocated elsewhere.
Abbott is trying to bully Victorians to vote for a dud tunnel project. It was he who said the election was a referendum on the toll road.
mb – 14 – yes part of Richmond which is basically how Labor won it in 1952, though having said that Hawthorn itself was pretty different place in 1952 with a lot of light industry along the train line.
Labor’s win in 1952! (If I don’t stop looking at these old papers I will never get anything done today!)
Also sub-story on that cover page is amazing story of Thomas Hollway who had been Premier, then kicked out of Liberals, then contested seat of reigning premier for “Electoral Reform League” and won with Labor preferences.
I think we really need to see a poll, other than Morgan, which has been taken this week to get a good picture. I am concerned that the Lib ‘scare campaign’ will have some impact in late votes. Point taken re the pre-polls. Of course with such high numbers of pre-polls we don’t know if they represent a cross section of voters reflecting the views overall when they voted, or are in some way skewed.
Here is a full release from Essential Research featuring party most trusted to handle various issues, and the finding that 38% of respondents felt they would be better off under a Labor government versus 30% for Liberal.
[Victorian state election 2014: Banyule councillor allegedly endorses Eltham Liberal candidate
MEGAN BAILEY DIAMOND VALLEY LEADER NOVEMBER 26, 2014 1:30PM
VOTERS in the Eltham electorate have received phone calls with a recorded message believed to be from independent state election candidate Craig Langdon asking them to vote for Liberal candidate Steven Briffa.
Mr Langdon took a leave of absence as the mayor when he announced his candidacy on November 14.
Acting mayor Jenny Mulholland confirmed the council believed the recording was Mr Langdon.
“Upon learning of Mr Langdon’s recorded phone message, in which he introduces himself as the mayor of Banyule, council’s chief executive officer (Simon McMillan) this morning contacted Mr Langdon advising him to stop distributing the message because it is causing confusion among the community, given Mr Langdon is currently on a leave of absence,” Cr Mulholland said.
Several people, including Eltham state Labor candidate Vicki Ward, have reported receiving the call on social media.]
includes audio clip
I’m thinking Labor still has it in the bag, but either major parties don’t want to take it sitting down and be complacent.
Even if the Libs retain government, the upper-house will end up being a Labor-Greens majority with the current polls.
For those who might be interested, here’s a spreadsheet I calculated of 2013 Senate results compiled by Legislative Council region:
This is based on polling booth data and thus uses “ordinary” votes only, but somewhat to my surprise, this turns out to make next to no difference for the upper house. I put this together as research for this paywalled article in Crikey today, which concludes that Shooters and Fishers, Country Alliance and Vote 1 Local Jobs are big shows in Eastern Victoria, Northern Victoria and Western Victoria respectively.
Just put a comment on the wrong thread oops. I’m interested if anyone here has ever heard of anything like Tony Abbott’s threat to take $3b off Victorians if we don’t vote for the LNP? I feel he’s jumped the shark.
VK @ 24
Not sure if there any precedents. I doubt it will be effective, my guess is that Napthine is privately wishing Abbott would not make himself part of the story.
I am not sure Valerie. According to the polls there remains a majority support for east-west link, (as silly as that may seem), so by linking the loss of funding to this project the Libs hope I presume it will scare enough voters.
That and the ‘union’ scare is all they have left.
Environment Victoria has compiled a 2014 election scorecard covering the policies of the Greens, Labor and the Coalition:
[Environment Victoria has 45 years of experience in environmental policy and campaigning. This election, we have carefully scrutinised the promises and commitments made by the major political parties and scored them. Our objective is to provide you with factual, spin-free information to help you make an informed decision at November’s election.]
chris hobson @ 26
According to the polls there remains a majority support for east-west link …
A misinterpretation of the facts. When asked simply whether they want the East-West toll road to be constructed a majority of people say “yes”.
However, when asked whether they prefer money to be spent on public transport improvements rather than the East-West toll road, the majority prefers public transport improvements.
This was my source.
I wasn’t suggesting that given a choice people would choose the east-west link over public transport, but that choice wasn’t reported in that poll.
What I was suggesting was that the Libs were attempting to conflate what they perceived as a positive of the link with the loss of funding for that link under Labor.
vk – 24 – at a “micro” level I remember Joh Bjelke-Petersen basically saying that electorates who voted against him would get nothing from his government the next term.
William 23 – very interesting how Greens vote was much less in booths corresponding to Eastern Metro compared to other two metro regions.
Hawthorn for most of its history has had a working class element, often living around the Swinburne university part and along the eastern half whilst the well heeled have generally lived closer to the Toorak Road end or around the northern end of Auburn.
Even today the ALP’s strongest booths are around Swinburne University whilst the Liberals remain very strong along Toorak Road
I was a bit surprised by that, RR. Not that Greens support in the eastern suburbs is a matter I’ve ever given much thought, but I’d assumed it would be bigger than in the regions.
chris hobson @ 29
I wasn’t suggesting that given a choice people would choose the east-west link over public transport, but that choice wasn’t reported in that poll.
That’s because the poll didn’t give respondents that choice. When polls do give respondents a choice between more major road projects and public transport improvements, the result is as I stated.
FWIW PVO on Sky earlier this afternoon said that senior Libs he was talking to in Victoria were using phrases like “snowball’s chance in hell” of a Liberal victory on Saturday.
w 33 – it encompasses nearly all the areas I work and it just always feels “less Green” than the rest of Melbourne. Looking at the map you could almost imagine “Eastland” as its unofficial “Capital”.
Peter Lewis has corrected the 2PP from this poll to 52:48
…which makes sense as its primaries are actually identical to those of a Galaxy 52:48.
Liberals had come in to $4-50, but maybe today’s events in Canberra have caused them to drift back out to $5-25.
And Howard campaigning in Victoria just emphasises how much his “ptotege” is on the nose down here!
Just noticed on the Greens’ website that Colleen Hartland is described as only a “candidate” – not a “lead candidate” like the other Greens at the top of their tickets.
This is to be highly commended. Lead-ism of courses has no place in a truly progressive social movement.
GG @ 35. I hope so. Would love to watch the knives come out on the various panels as they realize they have lost.
RR 36 – I grew up and worked in many of those suburbs in my youth – Bayswater, Boronia, Fern-tree Gully, Ringwood etc. Definitely feels ‘less Green’ than most other areas in Melbourne.
More happy-clappy religious types, people who are culturally working-class (although not always monetarily) etc.
And it also swung from marginal ALP to blowout LIB in my childhood.
Thankfully I had the benefit of my London-born Tory-hating father who was always strong ALP, but now usually votes #1 Green (more due to the ALP stance on asylum seekers than climate change).
I’ve updated the poll tracker on the sidebar. Not very interesting I’m afraid.
badseed – Federally Aston is an example of that. Labor from when it was started to 1990. Then marginal till 2000s, now safe Liberal.
A friend who lives at Sorrento,a safe Lib seat says
the Libs a finding it hard to man the booths on Sat
and…I am told on good authority that the Libs are now making a stand to hold their second-rank marginals like Ringwood , and other seats ,having given up hope in the first rank of marginals like the sand-belt/.Eltham/ Prahran etc
“having given up hope in the first rank of marginals like the sand-belt” – I think this is called “overrun” in military terms.
Well I tweeted about Abbott’s threat over EastWest link, and my twitter feed has gone crazy with retweets. Sure they may all be lefties like me, but I’ve never had a response like this before. It’s just going on and on. Think a lot of people are not happy about being threatened.
peter Martin’s piece on why Abbott’s tough rhetoric is rubbish.
Just heard that it is expected over 1 Million people will pre-poll before Saturday’s election.
VK – I was just driving past the Ringwood bypass/Maroondah Highway intersection today and I was remembering all the “No Tolls” banners that used to be there.
I remember Federal Liberal member for Deakin Phil Barresi campaigning hard in 2004 saying “No Tolls for the Scoresby Freeway”, and being backed up by the Federal Liberal Goverment – Peter Costello explicity saying that they would NOT tip in any funds to a tollway, only to a freeway. This hypocrisy was questioned even by the media, given that they WERE tipping such funds into Sydney tollways!
Now we have come full circle, and the Federal Liberals will ONLY tip funds into a tollway, and not other projects! I wonder what Barresi, and the various councils, did with all their “No Tolls” banners?
@ Greensborough Growler, that Peter Martin article says it pretty succinctly – money that was set aside for a rail project, then Abbott decided it should go to roads, and now he’s threatening anyone who disagrees with him. Pretty serious hubris.