ReachTEL livened up the Newspoll off-week with a federal poll conducted last Thursday, putting extra ballast into this week’s BludgerTrack update along with the reliable weekly Essential Research result. However, the results have made next to no difference, with two-party preferred ticking 0.2% to Labor and the total seat projection unchanged. ReachTEL in particular provides substantial new data for the state breakdowns, which have accordingly shifted to the extent of Labor gaining seats in New South Wales and Queensland and losing them in South Australia and Tasmania. Nothing new this week on personal ratings. Next week should be a big one, with the debut federal Fairfax-Ipsos poll in the pipeline, together I presume with the fortnightly Newspoll and Morgan and weekly Essential Research.
Note new posts below on New South Wales and Victorian state polling.
Lizzie
Just read your mention of PayPal today. I am a long term regular user and provide this info for you.
It might be helpful.
1. Paypal is heavily encrypted …. one of the safest payment methods around.
2. It costs nothing. When used with Ebay to collect proceeds of sales, it is Ebay that takes 10%, not Paypal.
3. The number of non Ebay online shops that use PayPal is drastically increasing as we speak. Last week I bought a fridge online, using Paypal. As well as being able to save $300 on the cheapest face to face price, I enjoyed free delivery (170Ks), free removal of old fridge. The dealer only accepts PayPal payment.
4. PayPal insures your payment for free up to $20K for a range of “mishaps” …… scams, cons, etc etc. I bought an item off EBay about 3 months ago ( top range Sennheiser headphones…. Quite a few hundred $s) … After 4 weeks they didn’t turn up and the seller ignored my emails …… PayPal removed my money from his Paypal account and returned it to me.
5. I do not know of a safer or more secure online payment method.
6. Online retail and commerce is so quickly becoming THE way to buy goods and services …… I am sure that anyone alive in 10 years time ( I hope to be one) will be seriously disadvantaged if they are not open to online retail. And PayPal makes online shopping so safe and easy.
Cheers
[CTar1
Posted Sunday, November 2, 2014 at 7:21 pm | PERMALINK
ML is simply a ‘hand-grenade thrower’. Ignore.]
PB: CTar1
“ML is simply a ‘hand-grenade thrower’. Ignore”
Real world translation:
“ML disagrees with other posters*. Be scared, ML is very effective arguing a case”
* For example zoomster’s contention that the GST helped Howard win votes in 1998 (do all of you agree with her?
[2. It costs nothing. When used with Ebay to collect proceeds of sales, it is Ebay that takes 10%, not Paypal.]
True. But I found it annoying that PayPal put money in an account of its own, when it pays out from my account.
[Be scared, ML is very effective arguing a case”]
LOL. ModLib is very good at verballing other posters, ignoring evidence when it’s provided, and fails to admit errors.
As well as that, ML has a very poor history when it comes to checking sources. (Still believe that Einstein said those wonderful things about Buddhism?)
It will be interesting to see if Abbott gets a GST poll bounce.
1352
Everything
“ML disagrees with other posters*]
…ML is here to distract from the failings of the worst PM since Billy MacMahon. There have been some genuinely hopeless LNP leaders. Abbott is but one of many.
david
Abbott hasn’t actually proposed anything, except that other people make a case for it.
Nothing@1347
I agree. You are not flawed, you are the flaw.
[zoomster
Posted Sunday, November 2, 2014 at 8:24 pm | PERMALINK
Be scared, ML is very effective arguing a case”
LOL. ModLib is very good at verballing other posters,]
YIKES!!!! don’t tell me its another slur from zoomster…..whodathunk?
[ ignoring evidence when it’s provided,]
YIKES!!!
[ and fails to admit errors.]
Think of me like the Pope of PB….infallible.
[As well as that, ML has a very poor history when it comes to checking sources. (Still believe that Einstein said those wonderful things about Buddhism?)]
I actually have no interest in whether or not Einstein said wonderful things about Buddhism, but the claim that he didn’t isn’t any more credible than the claims that he did, are they?
zoomster:
Do you think Hewson was helped or hindered by going to the 1993 election with a 15% GST equivalent?
Billy McMahon was an example of the Peter Principle but generally benign. You’d need to go back further, maybe W M Hughes, to fund a worse PM than the incumbent.
Victoria,
[I did the vote compass survey linked to above. Good lord. I am aligned with the Greens!!!]
Well, “most aligned”. A lot of it is really interpretation and on some the “somewhat” or “strongly”. And some of the policy statements they base it on are a bit vague and subject to interpretation itself. They also have weights for certain issue which adjusts the size and shape of your “sphere” of political philosophy. On quite a few issues I have thought while I may be closer to the policy positions of the party, I don’t agree with how they’ve gone about implementing them or how much I trust the Greens to formulate an actual program to put them in place.
DN are you suggesting Shorten has been telling porkies about Abbott and the GST?
Bugler
I guess my strong objection to the east west link is what did it!
When Howard introduced the GST, it is important to remember that it was REPLACING a rang of other taxes, principally a Wholesale Sales Tax.
So it was less likely to arouse strong opposition and indeed, I couldn’t really get terribly worked up about it.
When Beazley ran with the mad policy of Roll-Back, I thought it was just embarrassing.
But, to propose to actually INCREASE the GST is a different matter. The proposed increase is not supposed to replace any existing tax. It will just be a regressive further hit on the least affluent citizens.
Try it if you dare Abbott! 😡
david
Unless he’s said more since, the last I heard was Abbott asking for a mature (so-called) on raising the GST. That’s quite obviously code speak for “I want to raise the GST but I don’t want to make the case, how about you lot make it instead”.
Zoomster
I have my PayPal linked to a low cost credit card with a fairly low cap, which I use for online.
Routinely, my PayPal account is only linked to this card.
When I sell on EBay, I ( fairly infrequent)go into PayPal and link a savings a/c for the receipts.
Then I remove the savings and replace it with the credit a/c. Sounds a bit complicated but it’s not really … once it’s set up it is so convenient and simple to use.
As an aside, many big retail sites now only accept PayPal payment.
ML
I note you can’t actually argue the case that the GST cost Howard votes.
The Hewson/Keating election was a different circumstance. I honestly don’t know enough about why Hewson lost to comment.
My impression was that Fightback was originally a huge positive for him, but that Keating chipping away at it over a period of over a year exposed its flaws.
In 1998, however, I was a candidate, and had been one for over a year. I knew first hand what worked for Howard, because I talked to voters every day.
The polls confirm what I was hearing on the ground.
On the vote compass I came out more strongly aligned to Labor then the Greens then the LNP. I had to be neutral on the Vic-specific questions like the east west link. On others I transposed Victoria with WA and answered accordingly.
[I watched Stoljar interrogate JGillard. He did indeed look second rate]
Intimidated, I’d say. Not up to it and he knew it.
psyclaw
I love using Paypal for payments. I found it unnecessarily clunky when it came to paying me – a delay before money came into my Paypal account, and then (to use the money) I had to transfer it again.
I had assumed it would pay funds in the way it paid funds out – that is, directly into my personal account.
Tony Abbott and John Hewson make an interesting contrast.
John Hewson went to the 1993 election with a courageous plan for reform, including far reaching tax reform. It was courageous in both the real and the ‘Yes Minister’ sense ( in many ways they’re the same). Whatever the merits of his plans he deserves a lot of credit for trying to take the country along with him. He’d have had the mother of all mandates had he won. He had the then much more powerful press on his side, with Murdoch emphasising compensations and taxes slated for repeal. But Hewson actually had an adult conversation with the electorate.
Abbott, on the other hand, went to an election with a muddled plan for far-reaching ‘reform’ that was hidden from the Australian people by distractions (e.g. Boats) and lies (e.g the ‘unity ticket’ on Gonski) before last year’s election and sprung on an unsuspecting electorate like a dead cat thrown over the fence.
DN: Got it in one.
Abbott is a typical bully: essentially gutless.
He has never had the guts to make decisions off his own bat. When the issue of RU486 came up, he was arguing that he was “only following advice” when he tried to interfere on what was very clearly (if you knew his history) an issue close to his heart. And with every other decision made by his government – even when he was the one initially driving it, like with the PPL – he has relied on others to take the heat when it comes to being the public face of any unpopular issue.
He’s a pathetic, laughable character. He likes to talk the tough talk, but the minute he has the blow-torch applied he goes to water. All mouth and no trousers, as they say on The Bill.
I don’t think I’ve ever been as embarrassed by my Prime Minister as I am by this man … and I’ve live through Billy McMahon, Malcolm Fraser and John Howard!
[Real world translation:]
Shifts goalposts until the right Comment arrives so a pre prepared response can be made.
Right waste of time.
I know what Abbott is trying to do DN. Make the GST be part of a much bigger reform agend on Federal/State responsibilities. In the absence of strong bi-partisan support its the only way GST reform is likely to happen.
Personally I think it has close to zero chance to be discussed seriously and less chance to happen. I can only see downside risk for Abbott but at least he tried.
[zoomster
Posted Sunday, November 2, 2014 at 8:46 pm | PERMALINK
ML
…..In 1998, however, I was a candidate, and had been one for over a year. I knew first hand what worked for Howard, because I talked to voters every day.]
Which means it is in your interests to believe the GST helped the LNP, rather than being your candidature?
I may not have been a candidate, but I was certainly a voter, and the idea that the GST helped swing voters from the ALP to the LNP doesn’t fit with my recollection at all. I note that on a heavily pro-ALP blog, you are struggling to get any other takers for your proposition.
Providing polling showing Howard did well post GST declaration, doesn’t mean it was because of the GST declaration. Governments do badly in the middle of the terms and then things tend to tighten up as the election draws closer, don’t they?
S777
Abbott was Hewson’s Press Secretary and probably organised the fatal Press Interview for which Hewson was very badly prepared.
😀
Well, that’s a positive way to spin it, david.
Nothing@1376
And you remain… Nothing… 😀
Zoomster
Yes, you can easily switch linked a/cs.
As I said, mine is invariably linked to credit card because I am 90% buyer and only 10% seller.
As you say, it makes buying a breeze.
Last night I was on Expedia bookin some OS hotels. Paid all with PayPal
CTar1@1377
Yes, it was actually one of those much maligned ‘gotchas’ that got him when he couldn’t answer a question about GST on a cake.
[I watched Stoljar interrogate JGillard. He did indeed look second rate
Intimidated, I’d say. Not up to it and he knew it.]
My favourite part was when Stoljar was getting upset with her because he felt she was suddenly talking about paying on invoice when she never had before. As the Commish pointed out, she had – it was just that he hadn’t obviously been paying attention.
To me that was the essence of this RC. A pathetic, second-rate lawyer appointed to do the LNP’s bidding and nothing more.
Whenever push came to shove, he just wasn’t up to it. Even with Kathy Jackson, he dropped balls left, right and centre. He had an opportunity to nail her to the wall and whimped out.
But maybe that was just a sign of how much of his masters’ bidding he was doing …
I came out closer to the ALP than Greens on the compass thing. Seems I’ve been handing out the wrong HTV cards.
The only question that shifted me towards the Libs was somewhat supporting teacher’s pay being based on performance.
[CTar1
Posted Sunday, November 2, 2014 at 8:53 pm | PERMALINK
Real world translation:
Shifts goalposts until the right Comment arrives so a pre prepared response can be made.
Right waste of time.]
…waste of posting posting it, or you responding to it?
:devil:
Speaking of the GST
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/do-you-support-increasing-the-gst-if-it-means-cuts-to-income-tax-20141102-11ftxe.html
[To me that was the essence of this RC. A pathetic, second-rate lawyer appointed to do the LNP’s bidding and nothing more.]
To me the whole schemozzle speaks volumes about the capacity of this govt. When they commission an RC ostensibly to rain embarrassment on their political foes, yet the only outcome of note from it is that those foes are cleared of any wrongdoing tells me this mob couldn’t organise a quickie in a brothel.
ML
[Which means it is in your interests to believe the GST helped the LNP, rather than being your candidature?]
Nope. I got an above average swing (both compared with the rest of Victoria and the nation as a whole) and the best 2PP for the electorate since at least WWII.
[I may not have been a candidate, but I was certainly a voter, and the idea that the GST helped swing voters from the ALP to the LNP doesn’t fit with my recollection at all.]
That’s why I backed up my anecdotal evidence with evidence from the polls and commentary from the Liberal campaign director.
There’s more out there, I simply thought two pieces of evidence outweighed none at all.
[I note that on a heavily pro-ALP blog, you are struggling to get any other takers for your proposition.]
I didn’t notice that I was asking others to buy in.
A myth is still a myth no matter how many others think it isn’t, btw.
[Providing polling showing Howard did well post GST declaration, doesn’t mean it was because of the GST declaration. ]
But when there’s a 5% swing on primaries, we who frequent this pseph blog know that a. that didn’t happen without a reason and b. it’s outside the MOE.
You’re welcome, of course, to come up with another explanation for what was, by any measure, quite a remarkable shift in polling.
bemused
It was the ‘icing’ on the cake. 😀
I’m a glass half-full type of person DN.
david
Anyway, my point is that Abbott is currently dithering. He may have suggested a discussion, but the discussion is in some kind of inbetween state. He hasn’t actually proposed anything yet.
My personal point of view is that this leaves an opening for Labor to seize the initiative, jump right in and have the discussion, run both the for and against case, taking the opportunity to point out Abbott’s borrowing, spending problems, his gormlessness, inability to take responsibility, his blackmailing the states, his contradictions, his flattery, his lies, etc. etc.
None of which are exaggerations of his behaviour, I assure you ;).
chinda
As ‘Counsel Assisting’ he got not far.
His ‘Interim Recommendations’ read like a list of things ‘I couldn’t pin them on, on the day, the dirty rats’.
Goodness me.
https://mobile.twitter.com/mearesy/status/527590268262834176/photo/1
Without wanting to disturb your Sunday night, I have been reading the latest IPCC report and the outlook is pretty grim on current settings
[Without additional mitigation efforts beyond those in place today, and even with adaptation, warming by the
end of the 21st century will lead to high to very high risk of severe, widespread, and irreversible impacts
globally (high confidence) (Figure SPM.10). In most scenarios without additional mitigation efforts (those
with 2100 atmospheric concentrations >1000ppm CO2eq), warming is more likely than not to exceed 4°C
above pre-industrial levels by 2100. The risks associated with temperatures at or above 4°C include
substantial species extinction, global and regional food insecurity, consequential constraints on common
human activities, and limited potential for adaptation in some cases (high confidence). Some risks of climate
change, such as risks to unique and threatened systems and risks associated with extreme weather events, are
moderate to high at temperatures 1°C to 2°C above pre-industrial levels. ]
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_SPM.pdf
DN
that is, of course, because he wants the adults to do the actual discussing, and he’ll listen to them.
vic
[Goodness me. ]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a01QQZyl-_I
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes · 3m 3 minutes ago
#Ipsos Poll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 49 ALP 51 #auspol
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes · 2m 2 minutes ago
#Ipsos Poll Increasing GST & reducing income tax: Support 41 Oppose 52 #auspol
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes · 2m 2 minutes ago
#Ipsos Poll Increasing GST & reducing income tax: Support 41 Oppose 52 #auspol]
CTar1@1388
It made for truly funny television. it did ‘im in! 😆
New thread.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/re_election_policiesw?nk=fef291e8e23b280321d4deb47864163d
…well that didn’t take long. Here is a Mumble post directly contradicting your view zoomster
[When in late 1997 Howard announced that he was considering taking the new tax to the next election, the government’s poll numbers turned sharply downwards. It was around that time that Cheryl Kernot defected from the Democrats to Labor and seemed to bring a lot of support with her. It’s hard to untangle the two developments.]
and
[While it’s true that just after the May 1998 policy release more people approved than not, it was subsequently picked at by opponents, and while we don’t have this particular question again until the next year, days before the election more people wanted Labor’s tax package than wanted the Coalition’s.]
I sat through some of Craig Thomson’s hearing in the magistrates court and was surprised at the sins being read onto the court record for the express purpose of allowing the Australian to run their smear campaign complete with details not mentioned in court. The magistrate had repeatedly questioned their relevance of the details in law.
Stoljar’s summing up struck me as he said the legally correct thing at the front that there is no evidence of Gillard’s wrong doing and at the end provided the clause that allows the media to continue the smear.
How many people are aware that the leader of the smear campaign, fired shock jock MIke Smith has lived in Kathy Jacksons granny flat for over 2 years. It seems that his marriage that he invited all those travel rorting politicians to is over