BludgerTrack: 51.3-48.7 to Labor

Another incremental move to Labor on the poll aggregate this week, though not enough to change the overall seat projection.

ReachTEL livened up the Newspoll off-week with a federal poll conducted last Thursday, putting extra ballast into this week’s BludgerTrack update along with the reliable weekly Essential Research result. However, the results have made next to no difference, with two-party preferred ticking 0.2% to Labor and the total seat projection unchanged. ReachTEL in particular provides substantial new data for the state breakdowns, which have accordingly shifted to the extent of Labor gaining seats in New South Wales and Queensland and losing them in South Australia and Tasmania. Nothing new this week on personal ratings. Next week should be a big one, with the debut federal Fairfax-Ipsos poll in the pipeline, together I presume with the fortnightly Newspoll and Morgan and weekly Essential Research.

Note new posts below on New South Wales and Victorian state polling.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,403 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.3-48.7 to Labor”

Comments Page 1 of 29
1 2 … 29

  2. Greg Hunt making pathetic attempts on ABC24 to defend the indefensible in discussing his scheme to pretend to address carbon emissions.

  6. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Palmer leaves open a tiny crack for an ETS.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/direct-action-clive-palmer-and-crossbenchers-reach-deal-with-greg-hunt-20141029-11dt8w.html
    Here’s what Peter Martin has to say about it.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/clive-palmer-keeps-emissions-trading-scheme-alive-20141029-11dtu8.html
    The new Ipsos poll is very bad news for Napthine.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-state-election-2014/victoria-state-election-poll-shows-labor-leading-napthine-government-20141029-11dqr1.html
    Josh Gordon opines that it is the Abbott effect.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/abbott-factor-scuppers-napthines-ambitions-20141029-11dfw6.html
    Our SAS meets its match in the Middle East.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australian-special-forces-unable-to-join-fight-against-islamic-state-until-lraq-issues-visas-20141029-11dvvn.html
    Out comes the shotgun for NSW public service temps.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/state-government-confirms-public-servants-will-have-to-reapply-for-jobs-20141029-11dgk3.html
    The AFP contradicts itself on accessing metadata and what it is. Surprise surpirise!
    http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/consumer-security/afp-contradicts-itself-on-what-constitutes-metadata-20141029-11d1t5.html
    Con man Peter Foster strikes again.
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/peter-foster-implicated-in-international-betting-scam-20141029-11dq8t.html
    For Cormann the word “tax” is even harder to say than “sorry”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/forget-sorry-for-mathias-cormann-tax-is-the-hardest-word-to-say-in-parliament-20141029-11dtix.html
    George Christensen is fast becoming the prize dill of the lower house. Just LOOK at him!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/nationals-mp-george-christensen-calls-for-weather-bureau-inquiry-20141029-11dx63.html

  7. Section 2 . . .

    This will be an interesting debate to follow.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/labor-wants-earlier-tax-disclosure-20141029-3j5se.html
    David Marr on a big and ongoing study of Australians’ attitudes.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/oct/28/-sp-australians-in-2014-a-happy-people-with-a-deep-attachment-to-country-and-culture
    He seems to be a really nice sort of a guy!
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/trucking-proprietor-peter-francis-colbert-54-pleads-not-guilty-to-manslaughter-over-happy-valley-crash-that-killed-robert-brimson/story-fni6uo1m-1227106051982
    The three worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/10/29/the-three-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-96/
    Some dirty money allegations over the Canberra anti-mosque crowd.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/canberra-antimosque-group-denies-queensland-far-right-cash-links-20141029-11dnzf.html
    A new dawn as retailers face cut-throat competition.
    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/10/29/retail/retailers-face-cut-throat-competition
    How bankers seem to get the green light on shady practices in Australia.
    https://theconversation.com/do-the-crime-do-the-time-not-if-youre-a-banker-in-australia-33548
    Embedded journalism and MSM war propaganda.
    http://www.independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/embedded-journalism-and-msm-war-propaganda,7045
    Peter Wicks looks at Kathy Jackson’s “recovery process”.
    http://wixxyleaks.com/getting-better-kathy-jacksons-recovery-process/
    Internal red tape is a growing industry.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/running-out-red-tape-is-a-growth-industry-20141029-11dq2t.html

  8. Section 3 . . .

    Napthine to insert the thin edge of the wedge.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-state-election-2014/new-police-powers-proposed-by-napthine-20141029-11dv4s.html
    ACTU Assistant Secretary unleashes a virulent attack on the “political” trades unions royal commission.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/clive-palmer-keeps-emissions-trading-scheme-alive-20141029-11dtu8.html
    Melissa Parke worries about how the TPP will allow our democracy to be taken to court by the Yanks.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/oct/29/why-support-the-tpp-when-it-will-let-foreign-corporations-take-our-democracies-to-court
    Abbot Point – They will save the Great Barrier Reef. Now the stuff will be dumped in important wetlands.
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/conservation/new-abbot-point-dredge-plan-to-dump-spoils-in-wetlands-20141029-11dppx.html
    Joe Hockey’s “Don’t you know who I am!” moment.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/oct/29/hockey-uses-explosion-over-red-tape-on-pizza-trip-to-justify-regulation-cuts

  9. Section 4 . . .

    Alan Moir with a transparent casino agreement.

    David Pope and the Mr Fluffy asbestos fallout.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    John Spooner introduces a new role for the Sergeant-at-Arms.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/john-spooner-20090716-dmsv.html
    Nice work from Ron Tandberg on how Abbott’s dropped the (petrol) bucket on Napthine.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    Some more Fairfax cartoons to flick through.
    http://www.theage.com.au/photogallery/national/the-age-cartoons-october-30-2014-20141029-3j5r0.html
    David Rowe takes the Liberal leadership for a spin.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  10. Thanks BK for today’s offerings.

    Vic premier Napthine must really appreciate knowing that his federal counterparts are looking forward to his govt losing next month. Abbott obviously feels that a Vic Labor govt only helps him at the next federal election.

  11. As per link. Just check out the image of Abbott. What a nasty piece of work

    [If you didn’t know any better you might think Tony Abbott was trying to thwart Denis Napthine’s election campaign, but more likely the Prime Minister simply doesn’t give a toss.
    There had been a degree of optimism in the state government that the damage to the Coalition brand inflicted by the May federal budget had started to heal, the focus having shifted to terrorism and national security.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/abbott-factor-scuppers-napthines-ambitions-20141029-11dfw6.html#ixzz3HZM7xpmx

  12. [When asked if she called herself a feminist, Ms Bishop said the word was not part of her lexicon.

    “I’m not saying I reject the term. I don’t find the need to self-describe in that way,” she told the mostly female crowd…]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/forget-sorry-for-mathias-cormann-tax-is-the-hardest-word-to-say-in-parliament-20141029-11dtix.html#ixzz3HZL73vTV

    I have some sympathy for this approach, because for years I had the same difficulty.

    But then I realised that this was because the word ‘feminist’ had been loaded with negative connotations which were undeserved.

    The only way to rehabilitate words like ‘feminist’ is to adopt them, and hopefully show by example what they actually mean and that they’re not a badge of shame.

    (In the early years of campaigning in this area for the ALP, we made a big effort to do the same with Labor – to make it clear that being a member of the Labor party was not something to hide as if you were ashamed of it).

    In the same way, I call myself a politician.

    The trouble is with Julie Bishop repudiating the term is that she’s clearly benefitted from feminism in both her private and her public life.

  13. zoomster

    [The only way to rehabilitate words like ‘feminist’ is to adopt them, and hopefully show by example what they actually mean and that they’re not a badge of shame.

    The trouble is with Julie Bishop repudiating the term is that she’s clearly benefitted from feminism in both her private and her public life.]

    JBishop would need to have leadership skills to show any example.

  15. Steve777

    Greg Grub said in Sky that if the review set up in the deal with Clive recommended an ETS they would ignore the recommendation.

  16. BK

    [Palmer leaves open a tiny crack for an ETS.]
    Minister Greg Grub gave confirmation on Sky that the crack is closed, not that it ever existed. The result of the enquiry will be ignored if it recommends an ETS and the government will not have a bar of one now “or in 20 years time, as long as the Coalition has any say in the matter” .

  17. Thanks BK for this link in particular:

    Joe Hockey’s “Don’t you know who I am!” moment.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/oct/29/hockey-uses-explosion-over-red-tape-on-pizza-trip-to-justify-regulation-cuts

    In regard to “Red Tape” issues. As a small business owner I am mystified by just what these millions of bits of “red tape” are. There a few that affect my business but none of them difficult or unnecessary. Most of those cover issues relating to staff.

    I would suggest that much of the talk about “removing red tape” is just a cover for reducing workers benefits and workers conditions. The LieNP aren’t honest enough to tell it as it really is. Its interesting that the article claims more “red tape” is imposed by business itself than by government agencies.

    Certainly the Shopping Centre (in which my business is situated) has a host of “red tape” rules many of which are a nuisance to the lessees. I dare to say that they wont even be looked at by the big exageraters of the LieNP!

  18. Palmer really is a fool. Totally shafted by the govt and yet he thinks he has had a win. He really isn’t that smart.
    So the CCA will remain until the election, working on a report that will be ignored, then they will be disbanded if the coalition wins again, report binned. What a waste of taxpayer $.
    It’s Yes Minister-ish in its high farce.

  19. [But then I realised that this was because the word ‘feminist’ had been loaded with negative connotations which were undeserved.]

    Yes indeed. In fact even today you still see ignorant fools using terms such as ‘ferals’ and ‘nazis’ to describe women who campaign for gender equality. I just scoff at them, determining that their ignorant abuse says more about them than it does women.

  20. As per interview with Leigh Sales. Monty python comes to mind

    [LEIGH SALES: Let me check – let me check – that is – correct, that’s right. Let me check if I’ve got this straight. At a time when the Government is asking Australians to pay more for petrol and doctors visits because of a budget shortfall, you’re spending money on a review into emissions trading schemes when you’ve said that you will never implement an emissions trading scheme.

    GREG HUNT: There’s a fundamental flaw in the reasoning there, with great respect, Leigh. And that is there is no Senate majority for abolition of the Climate Change Authority. No matter what we choose to do, it would continue to exist. If it is continuing to exist, we might as well make use of it, unless you would want people to be employed, sitting there, paid, but not doing any work. So, if there’s no Senate majority to abolish it, let’s make use of it.]

  21. From Hunt’s interview —

    [the authority will conduct a review examining whether there are emissions trading arrangements in other countries and what form they take.]

    I think you can find this on wikipedia…

  22. Henry:

    It is my view that Palmer never intended there would be action on climate change. He just did a somewhat reasonable job of appearing as though he wanted action, conning a whole bunch of voters into the bargain. Remember when he appeared with Al Gore and everyone was convinced he was going to pull a carbon pricing rabbit out of his hat?

  23. Home page of the Age makes no mention at all of the Nova Peris maffer. They usually keep main story from the day before on the main page for a couple of days

  25. 21
    zoomster
    Posted Thursday, October 30, 2014 at 8:30 am | PERMALINK
    From Hunt’s interview –

    the authority will conduct a review examining whether there are emissions trading arrangements in [other countries and what form they take.

    I think you can find this on wikipedia…]

    Lol!

  26. I suppose Hunt’s “interview” with Leigh could be used to train other pollies in not answering the question, repeating yourself mindlessly, and talking over the interviewer. I can’t see any other use for it.

  27. BK

    [Palmer leaves open a tiny crack for an ETS.]

    I don’t think the words “Palmer” and “tiny crack” should be in the same sentence.

  28. Yes you’re right when you think about it confessions.
    Palmer is at heart your typical dig it up and ship it out kind of mining baron with a “sorry about that environment if we stuff you up in the process” attitude..

  32. lizzie@26

    I suppose Hunt’s “interview” with Leigh could be used to train other pollies in not answering the question, repeating yourself mindlessly, and talking over the interviewer. I can’t see any other use for it.

    He’s good at the “with great respect” isn’t he Hunt.
    That’s his code for “I have no intention of actually answering your question, i will just ignore it and say something totally unrelated thank you.”

  33. feeney and confessions

    Palmer is showing no sign of the smart negotiator he purports to be. Little Greg has rolled him right over. He’ll never make a politician’s bootlace.

  35. Victoria..

    Andrew Elder sent me a tweet yesterday in which he suggested Abbott wanted State Labor Govts so he could starve them of funds, thus allowing Fed Libs to point voters to the economic difficulties the States were experiencing as examples of poor management by Labor…

    He added that Howard did the same..

  36. [ ‏@SwannyQLD 14 minutes ago
    Abbott and Hockey quite happy to blow out the deficit by $2 billion to give it to big polluters. How mature is that?]

  37. [If you didn’t know any better you might think Tony Abbott was trying to thwart Denis Napthine’s election campaign, but more likely the Prime Minister simply doesn’t give a toss.]

    After the Victorian election, Abbott can turn his attention to NSW and Qld. In NSW Baird has far too big a lead for Abbott’s comfort and so he will need to work hard doing and saying things to make Baird uncomfortable. In Qld Newman is doing his bit to make himself uncomfortable but Abbott could still act to try and tip Newman over the edge.

  39. I got the impression Sarah Ferguson wouldn’t have tolerated Hunt’s nonsense on 7.30 last night.
    Leigh Sales tried but just wasn’t firm enough with him and he just rolled over the top. Sarah wouldn’t have copped that imo.

  42. lizzie

    You are assuming that it is not what Coal Clive wanted all along. He gets to portray himself as trying to do the right thing and cry all the way to the bank over the money his companies will save.

  46. Good old Shanahan – ever optimistic:

    [
    Leaps come in two-week bounds

    THE government is taking great strides towards implementing its program, defying doubters and proving it does know how to deal.]

    This is on the Oz title page. There is no more visible without a subscription.

  47. [It is sensible for the Climate Change Authority to investigate other countries’ emissions trading schemes, even though Minister Hunt called it a “gesture”.

    The authority’s report will show that many countries have emissions trading schemes in place, and more are coming. Crucially, China now has regional carbon-trading schemes that cover more than twice the emissions under the scheme that was in place in Australia, and a national Chinese scheme is in preparation.

    The Authority should also be asked to take stock of the many other policies that countries use to restrain their emissions. These range from aggressive energy-efficiency standards, to support for renewable energy and limits on coal-fired power generation, and of course energy and carbon taxes.

    Australia is falling behind on practically all of these measures.]

    http://theconversation.com/palmer-deal-gives-green-light-to-direct-action-experts-react-33601?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign

  48. Re “Red Tape”: Big Business wants to make as much money as they can, not pay tax, pay their workers as little as possible and be the sole arbiters of what’s fair in their dealings with their staff, customers and smaller businesses. Anything that gets in the way of any of this is “red tape”.

  49. markjs:

    I think Mumble has written something similar about state Labor govts increasing the chances of voters returning a federal Liberal govt.

  50. Victorians voted for the Liberals last time around because Ballieu convinced them that his party was not Kennett’s. Once elected, he proved it was.

    Victorians learnt under Kennett that they can’t trust the Liberals. Ballieu demonstrated that this is still true.

    The rest of the nation hasn’t learnt the lesson yet…

Comments Page 1 of 29
1 2 … 29

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *