The Australian has published Newspoll’s bi-monthly state voting intention result for New South Wales, where the state election is now less than five months away. The result is very encouraging for Mike Baird, showing his Coalition government’s lead on two-party preferred opening up from 54-46 in July-August to 55-45 in September-October. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 42%, with Labor and the Greens unchanged at 33% and 13%. Mike Baird has also consolidated his honeymoon personal ratings – his approval rating, which was at 49% in his two previous Newspoll surveys, has shot up seven points to 56%, his disapproval rating has fallen three to 20%, and his lead over John Robertson has preferred premier widens from 45-21 to 52-17. It is particularly unusual for a leader so new to the job to have a drop in their disapproval, as the usual pattern is for both approval and disapproval to increase as the uncommitted jump off the fence. John Robertson’s approval rating is up a point to 35%, and it appears his disapproval was also little changed on its 32% last time.
Two other New South Wales state results from the past two days:
• Essential Research has a result compiled from the entirety of its online polling for October, which has the Coalition lead up from 53-47 to 54-46 from primary votes of 46% for the Coalition (up two), 36% for Labor (unchanged) and 8% for the Greens (unchanged).
• Roy Morgan has published results from SMS polling for every state, the New South Wales result having hit a big sample of 1860 respondents. This had the Coalition lead out to 56-44 from 53-47 in the last such poll a month ago, the primary votes being 46% for the Coalition (unchanged), 34% for Labor (up 1.5%), 10.5% for the Greens (down 1.5%) and 3.5% for Palmer United (unchanged).
Give Robbo a go ! how’s that for a slogan?
55-45 at the moment isn’t a terrible result for Labor considering their massacre at the last state election.
Generally,the gap narrows towards the election too. Labor should be able to rebuild their base in NSW.
The ALP looks set for a 9% swing, on this polling, which is probably near enough a record save for the 16% swing against them at the last election.
What does this mean for Robbo? He can claim a great performance if he achieves a 9% swing but the better view is that it is just a correction against the clown offerings of the ALP leading up to 2011.
As the election looms, voters will critically match up Baird v Robertson and I suspect the gap will only increase. The Newcastle by-election result for ALP was an unmitigated disaster, and western Sydney showing no signs of swinging back. My prediction is that Baird will be turned with 60 seats out of 93….
moderate@4
I doubt it. There is going to be more ICAC stuff coming out for the Liberals.
How about : I dunno, Robbo ?
The NSW ALP should change leaders.
They have not changed their leadership election method yet have they?
The type of leadership change vote system that Rudd got the ALP to adopt probably would have reduced the factional control of the leader that made the previous ALP government rot.
7 Last year the NSW Labor Party changed leadership election method to 50/50.
Why should NSW Labur Party change leaders?
I completely concur. Please retain Robertson as Leader for life. I am sure he will completely outwit and outsmart Baird and be the brilliant Premier everyone expects. I would give him at least 3 (if not 4) elections to get the job done….
I see Moderate’s still struggling with maths.
Sorry I suspect I was a little optimistic in my assessment of how quickly Robertson might make it.
2035 looks about right…….
The look on Bill Shorten’s face when he endorses Robbo should be good.
He will cross his toes.