The new Ipsos poll for Fairfax has opened its account in interesting style, giving Labor a lead of 56-44 on two-party preferred. However, the primary votes aren’t quite as remarkable as that, perhaps excepting a result of 17% from the Greens the Coalition is on 39% and Labor on 37%, which in both cases are within a point of the latest results from Galaxy, ReachTEL and Essential Research. The reason the two-party headline is so extraordinary is that it is from respondent-allocated preferences, which have had a way of leaning heavily towards Labor recently, in both federal and state polling. Ipsos’s calculated based on preference flows from the 2010 election is a much less remarkable 53-47.
Denis Napthine can also find comfort in his leads over Daniel Andrews on personal ratings. Napthine’s plus-nine net approval rating (approval 47%, disapproval 38%) compares with minus-five for Andrews (37% and 42%), and he leads 45-36 as preferred premier. The Age’s graphic has big arrows showing changes in the leaders’ personal ratings, but this is in comparison with a poll conducted three months ago by a different pollster.
Fairfax’s Peter Martin spruiks the new poll series thus:
Ipsos polls in more than 120 countries and has conducted election polls in Canada, the United States, Italy, France, Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, Ireland the United Kingdom, the Ukraine, Russia and Peru. It is taking over from long-term pollster Nielsen, which has withdrawn from political polling. Ipsos will be conducting national and state polls for Fairfax Media.
Ipsos’ 2008 US presidential poll was regarded as the most accurate of the 22 covering the election that brought Barack Obama to power.
Its first poll for The Age covering the Victorian election surveys 1400 voters, roughly twice the number usually surveyed in state polls, and broadly in line with the “gold standard” used for national polls.
“The margin of error for a sample of 1400 is about 2.6 per cent,” said Ipsos Australia managing director Mark Davis. “We may change the size of the state polls over time but certainly for the first one we wanted it to be a pretty robust sample.”
Ipsos also distinguishes itself from its competitors by calling mobile as well as fixed numbers.
Also out today was this effort from Essential Research, accumulating the result of its polling throughout the month of October. It shows the Labor lead at 52-48 (steady on last month) from primary votes of 38% for Labor (down one), 39% for the Coalition (steady) and 12% for the Greens (up one). Similar results from ReachTEL, Galaxy and Morgan are detailed in this earlier post.