ReachTEL livened up the Newspoll off-week with a federal poll conducted last Thursday, putting extra ballast into this week’s BludgerTrack update along with the reliable weekly Essential Research result. However, the results have made next to no difference, with two-party preferred ticking 0.2% to Labor and the total seat projection unchanged. ReachTEL in particular provides substantial new data for the state breakdowns, which have accordingly shifted to the extent of Labor gaining seats in New South Wales and Queensland and losing them in South Australia and Tasmania. Nothing new this week on personal ratings. Next week should be a big one, with the debut federal Fairfax-Ipsos poll in the pipeline, together I presume with the fortnightly Newspoll and Morgan and weekly Essential Research.
Note new posts below on New South Wales and Victorian state polling.
Today I’ve had several reasons to doubt your basic comprehension skills — this, for example:
[You are the first pundit to suggest that the GST was a vote winner for Howard….]
…when I provided a link to an article crikey published (complete with REAL poll results) in 2010.
So I’m far from the first ‘pundit’ to suggest the GST was a vote winner for Howard.
I also referred (as did the crikey article) to the published polls, which basically supports Crosby’s statements (another pundit who says the GST was a vote winner for Howard).
This is a pseph site. When the polls suggest that something dramatic happened (and a 5% rise on primaries within the space of a few weeks is pretty dramatic) then it should be accepted that something happened.
In this case, the jump in the polls directly correlates to Howard’s GST announcement.
[However, at the time of the election and the almighty scare campaign, voters were well and truly turned off by the prospect of the GST, and Howard only won the war of attrition….he didn’t win because he introduced the GST]
Fine. Provide evidence. I have.
Howard didn’t need the 5% bounce to last all the way to the polls. He needed a distraction, because he couldn’t win on his record. Arguing about the GST instead of focussing on other issues took the media’s (and thus the voters’) attention off Howard’s poor performance.
He ended up polling on election day slightly higher than he had been before the GST announcement. He only needed some small wins in a handful of seats to cling on to government, and that’s what he got.
Nicholas
[Seventh, price road use accurately to take into account the full impacts of pollution, congestion, and wear and tear on roads.]
You could do that by raising the tax on fuel — oh, hang on….
confessions, no worries, I’m certain this government will make sure they count exactly the cuts in emissions they’ve promised direct action will achieve.
Lizzie
[I wonder if Hockey would read this.]
I wonder if Hockey can read or whether his staff have to convert stuff into pictograms for him.
😀
Direct Action is nothing more than a great new Big Tax for the taxpayer.
The money Abbott is giving business has to be replaced to meet the budget target, it will come from increased taxes either on fuel or services.
CTar
Careful, you’ll be accused of being rude! Although I seriously wonder how much reading is done by the Ministers as they seem to understand so little.
Boris:
Spot on.
And now W.A. getting in on the act.
[Catastrophic fire danger in parts of WA
Total fire bans are in place in parts of Western Australia’s Gascoyne, Central Wheatbelt and Great Southern regions, following a catastrophic fire danger rating.]
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/catastrophic-fire-danger-in-parts-of-wa-20141102-11fnsd.html#ixzz3HtADsi9w
[ Boris
Posted Sunday, November 2, 2014 at 5:03 pm | Permalink
Direct Action is nothing more than a great new Big Tax for the taxpayer.
The money Abbott is giving business has to be replaced to meet the budget target, it will come from increased taxes either on fuel or services.
]
Yeah ……by the same reasoning – give money to speedsters to make the reduce their speeding, give money to robbers to reduce their break-ins to our houses , money to drug addicts to reduce their dependance on ice etc etc ….. simple ain’t it ????
I wonder whether Abbott/Hunt will conceal the businesses which claim carbon-related funds because they will be declared “on-carbon matters”.
lizzie
Somehow I cannot see Greg Hunt carrying the role like Morrison does.
guytaur
He has the same ability to brazen it out in the face of disbelief. In that sense Hunt has ‘matured’ in the role. He can tell lies with the same straight face as any of them.
lizzie
Hunt reminds me of a rabbit in the headlights. Morrison is more your snarling jackal.
Bad news for Abbott more facts coming about Climate Change
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-29803811
guytaur
Techniques – let me see now.
Yes – Hunt, rabbit in the headllights.
Morrison, a bear who has buried its kill in a secret cave.
Abbott, the dissembling priest, lecturing his followers “do what I say, not what I do”.
Turnbull, the elusive fox, elegant and clever but untrustworthy.
Hockey, the roaring bull who won’t listen to anyone.
Pyne, the shrieking hyena, laughing while he nips at the heels of his prey.
Palmer, the slow mastiff, all bark and no bite.
😆
lizzie
The only one I an critique in your list is the bear for Morrison. Mainly because I see bears as having a dignified style
Where is everyone on here lately – where is mari and where is BH?
Morrison is more of a Rottweiler.
MTBW
Good question
MTBW
Mari gets tired of the tit-for-tat arguments. She has a lively group of conversationalists on Twitter.
guytaur
Maybe they do not like every comment they make being analysed and corrected for them.
BTW
Don’t forget Whitlam in his own words on SBS tonight at 8:30pm.
Steve777
Rottweiler – no, they’re serious. We have to allow for Morrison’s secret smirk.
Thanks lizie and I don’t blame her for not liking what goes on here sometimes.
People are entitled to their own view without someone trying to correct them.
Thanks lizie and I don’t blame her for not liking what goes on here sometimes.
People are entitled to their own view without someone trying to correct them.
The double click wasn’t necessary.
MTBW
But Mod Lib/Everything enjoys corrections. Arguing is part of the fun for her. 🙁
guytaur
Agree not a bear. More like an aggressive goat.
MTBW
Your double clicks are often a surprise source of appropriate emphasis ;).
CTar
You’ve got it!
lizzie
He/She is not the only offender!
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/man-accused-of-assaulting-sydney-women-and-trying-to-kidnap-them-fronts-court-20141102-11fphv.html
What are we coming to?
@abcnewsMelb: #VoteCompass is live for the Victorian election: find out where you stand http://t.co/dA8NyrMUec #vicvotes
[He/She is not the only offender!]
No, indeed – MTBW often corrects people who are only offering an opinion.
[1326
lizzie
But Mod Lib/Everything enjoys corrections. Arguing is part of the fun for her]
E is attempting to deflect attention away from Abbott, who is revealing himself to be a timid and evasive figure. Rather than have the light shine on the paper-thin incumbent, E has tried to make up some myths about that other LNP failure, John Howard.
This is particularly necessary because another figure of the past, the incomparable Gough, has been recast in the public mind. Gough was the very embodiment of vision, political courage, the struggle for opportunity, equality, justice and reform, for modernity itself.
The fact remains that Abbott is an opposite of Labor’s lion. Where Gough stood for the tasks of progress, Abbott hopes to draw us into a nostalgic past; where Whitlam stood for egalitarian citizenship Abbott will restore privilege and subjection; where Gough had the courage to imagine a greater Australia, Abbott invokes fear and then runs to hide.
This is the real contrast – between the grandeur of Labor’s purpose and achievement and the puny triviality of the LNP.
ML is simply a ‘hand-grenade thrower’. Ignore.
“ML is simply a ‘hand-grenade thrower’. Ignore” rolling one in is far more effective
Yes yes, we’re all flawed people.
Even me.
Ok, I’ll stop being cheeky now ;).
I did the Vote Compass thing and found out something I actually didn’t know. On “moral issues” there was same-sex couple adopting, and apparently the Liberal Party’s/Napthine’s view is that we should wait for the “science to be in”, as if there hadn’t already been comprehensive research into the subject, none of which found anything adverse. Not only that but I find the rather brazen disregard for children with same-sex parents now affronting. All this is done with the background of the state having no issues with, and for that matter relying on, same-sex couples fostering children. How insulting and cowardly.
Attorney-General George Brandis has described a statement by counsel assisting the royal commission into union corruption about former prime minister Julia Gillard as “very damning”.
In an overview of submissions to the inquiry, Counsel Assisting Jeremy Stoljar said that Ms Gillard’s former boyfriend Bruce Wilson and sidekick Ralph Blewitt should be charged for a “sham” slush fund they ran in the 1990s.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/royal-commission-statement-about-gillard-very-damning-brandis-20141102-11fq8j.html#ixzz3Htqsw2Yd
An article about how tenants get shafted. Strengthening tenants’ rights is a long overdue reform for our country. We have the most overvalued housing in the world and the weakest protections for tenants. A bad combination.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-state-election-2014/the-forgotten-people-victorias-1-million-renters-20141101-11f29t.html#ixzz3HsmwitXR
vic
[Attorney-General George Brandis has described a statement by counsel assisting the royal commission into union corruption about former prime minister Julia Gillard as “very damning”.]
Brandis lives in Cloud Cuckoo Land.
I doubt anything they could say would say in the end would match the story on how he became an S.C.
Victoria,
So admitting he was wrong is off the cards then…
CTar1
Cloud cuckoo land is definitely where Brandis resides
Bugler
Brandis spending copious amounts of taxpayer dollars for his bookshelves on the other hand is not damning….
I did the vote compass survey linked to above. Good lord. I am aligned with the Greens!!!
This must be the worst performance in test cricket by Oz since we lost the first test played by Bradman (by 675 runs).
We don’t look like we give a shit.
[DisplayName
Posted Sunday, November 2, 2014 at 7:41 pm | PERMALINK
Yes yes, we’re all flawed people.]
I’m not!
🙂
Annabel Crabb on the topics of Guns in the US
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/guntoting-politicians-take-cover-in-firearms-battle-20141031-11etys.html
Jeremy Stoljar stumbled his way through his questioning of Julia Gillard. He thought he had devised a cunning trap for Gillard about a distinction between invoices and receipts but the Commissioner told him he had nothing. He came across as a mediocre barrister of questionable value for money.
Nicholas
I watched Stoljar interrogate JGillard. He did indeed look second rate