This week’s Essential Research poll finds Labor retaining its 53-47 lead after gaining a point last week, with both major parties on 39% of the primary vote – the Coalition down a point, Labor steady – the Greens down one to 9%, and Palmer United up one to 4%. Further questions relate to the international big picture:
• For some reason, there has been a turn to indecision on republican sentiment: for and against are tied on 31%, respectively down two and down 11 since the question was last asked in April, with “no opinion” up 13 to 38%.
• Respondents were asked to evaluate the importance of our various international relationships, with the results little changed since the last time the question was asked in June. The United States, United Kingdom and China headed the pack – Saudi Arabia and Russia were included in the list for the first time, but both ranked bottom out of the 10.
• Perceptions of the government’s handling of international relations have improved, with 40% saying they had a lot of or some trust (up five) and 53% little or none (down six). Forty-nine per cent professed confidence in Tony Abbott representing Australia abroad, up four, with 47% not at all confident, down three. The government’s handling of the Indonesia relationship was rated good by 32%, up seven, and poor by 39%, down four.
• Seventy-three per cent rated the G20 meeting important to Australia’s economy, against only 17% for not important.
• On a different note, respondents were asked to identify the three most important achievements of the Whitlam government (without allowing naysayers an outlet for indicating that there weren’t any). Establishing Medibank was first on 68%, with daylight second.
@ AussieAchmed 597
You forgot about the $8.8bn grant to the Reserve Bank.
William
If you’re still around, do you think we are likely to get the results of the Ipsos poll tonight?
Scott Ludlam was interviewed by Waly Aleed on RN Drive this evening:
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/drive/scott-ludlam-on-government2c-pup-climate-change-deal/5852212
He was asked questions on the cc deal between PUP and Coalition, increase in fuel excise (nope no division there) and an issue that has been entirely overshadowed (how convenient) by the first – the passing of the foreign fighters bill (second tranche of security / terrorism bills) in the senate due to bipartisan support.
Ebola survivors being recruited to assist after recovery.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-29/red-cross-medical-leader-embarassed-by-government27s-ebola-res/5851458
Australia’s “effort” rubbished, shameful.
The only way the Ipsos Poll could create shock-waves would be a total blow-out ie 55-45% or higher or if the Libs have any kind of lead.
@ J3, 605
Pollsters love to exaggerate the impacts of their polls, so I’m sticking with a 54.
@ J3, 605
Another possible “shock-wave”-inducing result would be a Greens primary vote in excess of about 16%.
Then, accepting that he would have to eat his pizza on the footpath, Joe said, “well for fuck’s sake, just give me a pizza with the lot”.
The reply was directed more at his bewildered family than the square-shouldered treasurer himself: “I’m sorry Mr Hockey but the council doesn’t allow hectoring eyeballers to have every topping on the same pizza. Perhaps you’d like a handful of doe and a can of piss off?”
Arrnea Stormbringer
[Pollsters love to exaggerate the impacts of their polls]
Not just pollsters PvO a while back went though a stage of “WOW!” type tweets over an upcoming poll result. They turned out more bore than phwaor.
When governments go to war, the Fourth estate goes AWOL…
http://theconversation.com/when-governments-go-to-war-the-fourth-estate-goes-awol-32167
Very well-written piece from The Conversation.
What if this happened to Joe Hockey – the bellowing would be heard a mile away:
[President Barack Obama’s credit card was declined at a restaurant in New York City last month, he said.
“It turned out I guess I don’t use it enough,” Mr Obama said. “They thought there was some fraud going on.”
Fortunately, he said, First Lady Michelle Obama had a credit card on hand and paid for the meal.
Mr Obama told the story at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau as he announced new protections for debit cards used to deliver federal benefits.
An estimated 100 million Americans have been affected by identity theft in the past year, including high-profile security breaches at retailers like Target and Home Depot.
“I was trying to explain to the waitress, you know, I really think that I’ve been paying my bills,” Mr Obama said. “Even I’m affected by this.”
]
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-29664831
A lengthy remorial to Gough in a Scottish blog.
http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2014/10/28/its-time-the-independence-of-gough-whitlam/
oops … memorial
citizen
[President Barack Obama’s credit card was declined at a restaurant in New York City last month, he said.]
He should have looked them in the eye and done his Ali G impersonation “It’s cos I is black innit?”
Ipsos Poll 56/44 to Labor.
zoomster
Now he tells small business he feels their pain because he as a customer had an experience where he wasn’t allowed to do what he wanted to.
Given he contributed to the pain of small business by removing the tax breaks put in place by Labor. I really doubt he knows (much at all)
I couldn’t believe how quietly that happened
Greensborough Growler
Well this time it really is a !!!!!!! result. Oh to have a snapshot of the moment Tony is told. That and the look on Peta’s dial.
Well, well. Foundation 51, a generous donor to the CLP, but who otherwise have nothing undue whatever to do with the CLP, no siree, (but are nonetheless under serious scrutiny over exactly that possibility,) have just released, reluctantly no doubt, some information about their internal goings on.
On the very same day as the Peris nonsense hit the public arena.
Which coincidence, to their credit, Darwin ABC TV news did quietly but clearly note in their Peris report this evening.
[Greensborough Growler
Posted Wednesday, October 29, 2014 at 9:02 pm | PERMALINK
Ipsos Poll 56/44 to Labor.]
I think we can safely say that is an outlier. But deduct two or three percent and it’s still a great result.
Ooops it’s a state poll. Bugger. Will have to wait a bit longer.
The Westminster Labour Party currently holds 41 of 59 Scottish seats in Westminster.
The general election will be held in May next year.
Latest polls in Scotland:
SNP 41.7% (-0.3)
Labour 24.7% (-1.4)
Conservatives 17.5% (+1.5)
Liberal Democrats 5.7% (-0.3)
Greens 5.0% (+0.3)
UKIP 4.0% (+0.3)
(The Poll of Polls uses the Scottish subsamples from all GB-wide polls that have been conducted entirely within the last seven days and for which datasets have been provided, and also all full-scale Scottish polls that have been conducted at least partly within the last seven days. Full-scale polls are given ten times the weighting of subsamples.)
Andrew Elder had a post quite a while ago theorizing that Abbott would actively work to shaft the Liberal state governments.
It seems quite blatant with Victoria – the Feds could hardly have timed things worse for the Victorian election.
Weird negotiating strategy by Clive Palmer. Give the Government the votes it needs in the Senate to enact an expensive dud which won’t reduce carbon emissions appreciably. In return, the Government commissions a report about emissions trading which it will promptly ignore.
A question to the PB psephologist community from a long-time neighbour and (very) occasional contributor.
Have just spent the past few days scrutineering at local government elections. Wondering whether a scenario in line with the following has been observed previously by any of the community.
Poll consisted of 6 candidates with the leader getting 29% of first preference votes and the remainder between 10% and 19%. Two exclusions results in the third candidate being 3 votes ahead of the fourth at the next exclusion point. Recount of their votes ordered before making the cut, results in 2 votes switching, changing the candidate order and a new margin of 1 vote. A full recount ordered and results in another change with 1 vote moving from one of the two leading candidates to the fourth placed candidate, producing a tie for third. Excluded candidate is then decided by the drawing of the lucky marble.
This drawing of lots was in any event a bit academic as both these candidates were then excluded in order until we were with left with the final two – and another dead heat.
So two drawings from the hat to decide one poll!
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
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#Ipsos Poll VIC State 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 44 ALP 56 #vicvotes #auspol
9:00 PM – 29 Oct 2014
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One of Rupert’s tweets – and I thought he passed himself off as an Australian when he was here:
[Rupert Murdoch @rupertmurdoch · Oct 12
Proud to be an American. Just took son&grandson to California science exhibition in LA fantastic show of spacecraft,other U.S. achievements]
Nicholas
I doubt Palmer has ever had concern about global warming or science or rationality. He is just another LNP plutocrat.
[Rupert Murdoch @rupertmurdoch · Oct 12
Proud to be an American. Just took son&grandson to California science exhibition in LA fantastic show of spacecraft,other U.S. achievements]
Haha, these days Australians are just Americans without the guns.
…and the look on Peta’s dial.
Probably the usual scowl. She only has one expression.
Diog I was thinking about the press stuff on the train and I think there are a number of different questions and they get some different answers from me as between the Prof and the Senator.
(1) Should the ‘victim’ be entitled to damages for the publication:
Prof – no
Senator – some damages for the unnecessary personal information even if the story is otherwise true, massive damages if the claims in respect of money are misleading or wrong.
(2) Should the publications be entitled to protect their sources (provided they are sources and not fictional sources).
Yes for Prof and Senator.
(3) Should anyone be immune from prosecution if they have illegally obtained the information (be it source or publication).
No for Prof and Senator, neither is really whistleblowing if the source has hacked or stolen the emails.
Fairfax-Ipsos Victorian poll thread:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/10/29/fairfax-ipsos-56-44-to-labor-in-victoria/
[One of Rupert’s tweets – and I thought he passed himself off as an Australian when he was here:]
No doubt just trying to make sure there isn’t any kickback from Americans realizing he has massive influence over them and wasn’t one of them all that long ago.
WWP
I agree with those conclusions.
Astrobleme
I came across this article and found it relevant to your recent gallant struggle with a truculent mule.
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2014/10/28/comment-how-handle-toxic-people
[622
Jackol
Andrew Elder had a post quite a while ago theorizing that Abbott would actively work to shaft the Liberal state governments.]
Something like this?
Step 1. Encourage voters to choose Labor in the states/territories.
Step 2. Install preferred radical right apparatchiks in the state Liberal machines.
Step 3. Devolve responsibility for costs to the states, while simultaneously
giftingselling off the nations assets and leaving the public coffers bare, in The Great Federalism Bonfire.Step 4. Point at wreckage of state finances, because, obviously, Labor.
Step 5. Handsome profit from radical right state governments winning around 2018-2020
[623
Nicholas
Weird negotiating strategy by Clive Palmer. ]
Well, deal making, at any rate.
Pretty much confirms that Clive’s main project is Clive, and stuff the rest of us.
AussieAchmed:
[The repeal of the carbon price legislation, removed $7.5 billion from revenue.
The promise to maintain the tax cuts and compensation is an unfunded $4.5 billion
Now spending $2.5 billion to plant a few trees.
Depending how you want to run it, it is a total of a $14.5 billion hit on the budget bottom line]
It’s a helluva way to run a railroad!
Clive Palmer will be on Lateline after 10.30 pm
[So two drawings from the hat to decide one poll!]
Gosh, that is remarkable.
Of course, Nicholas, the solution is even simpler – Astro could have left the argument alone, and let fran continue it (if she wished) on her return.
I would have been quite happy talking about water policy instead.
But Astro has a thing about me, and he can’t let it alone.
Having read that, it sounds a lot more like Astro than it does me – but then, of course, Nicholas has no idea how many years it’s been since Astro starting leaping into action because of posts of mine (I note that many other posters can make equivalent posts about the Greens and Astro lets them slide…)
He’s baaaaaack!
[A Nationals MP has called for an inquiry into the weather bureau accusing it of fudging figures on the impact of climate change.
George Christensen says the Bureau Of Meteorology has wiped off early temperature records to justify its claims the weather is getting hotter.
…
“How could it be getting hotter … if it was really hotter 118 years ago,” he told parliament on Wednesday.
“It’s relatively simple: the early years are simply wiped from the official record.”
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/nationals-mp-george-christensen-calls-for-weather-bureau-inquiry-20141029-11dx63.html#ixzz3HXeDNhgw ]
If there is a God, and if he is listening, please… no more embarrassment.
Thank you.
Operation Sovereign F*ckup:
[Australia’s special forces are elite warriors with a fearsome reputation, but it seems they have met their match in Iraq – the Baghdad bureaucracy.
About 200 commandos are in the Middle East waiting to join the fight against Islamic State, but they have been told they cannot enter Iraq without valid visas.
The Foreign Affairs Minister, Julie Bishop, was asked on Wednesday whether the troops were yet in Iraq and she declined to answer because of operational secrecy: “One doesn’t flag what we intend to do to the enemy.”
However, an informed source said the obstacle was not the enemy but the Iraqi government’s excruciating inefficiency. Australian officials have been told it will take another week or two for visas to be granted.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/australian-special-forces-unable-to-join-fight-against-islamic-state-until-lraq-issues-visas-20141029-11dvvn.html#ixzz3HXgN4FEZ ]
[ A Nationals MP has called for an inquiry into the weather bureau accusing it of fudging figures on the impact of climate change.
George Christensen says the Bureau Of Meteorology has wiped off early temperature records to justify its claims the weather is getting hotter.
{snip}
“It’s relatively simple: the early years are simply wiped from the official record.”
Mr Christensen said the bureau has been involved in a process of “homogenisation” — changing raw data so the past appears cooler than the present.
{snip}
“We have a scientific process being tainted at the source,” he said.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/nationals-mp-george-christensen-calls-for-weather-bureau-inquiry-20141029-11dx63.html#ixzz3HXfGxo6V ]
Come on, senior met bureau scientists & management, that has to be actionable. He is clearly accusing you of fraud.
Let’s see how brave this hyperbolic pile of shit is when the writ arrives.
Care to comment, Malcolm Turnbull?
643
If he said this in Parliament then it is not something that can be sued for, only complained to the HoR about. Complaining to the HoR would, at best, cause an investigation by the Privileges Committee (with a Coalition majority).
Suing the current government could cause repercussions, such as funding cuts political appointments and sackings.
[However, an informed source said the obstacle was not the enemy but the Iraqi government’s excruciating inefficiency. Australian officials have been told it will take another week or two for visas to be granted.]
Diplomatic speak for: The Iraqis really don’t want us back. Bad memories of last time we were there.
[Suing the current government could cause repercussions, such as funding cuts political appointments and sackings.]
Keeping silent doesn’t exactly seem to be working out so far. Nor for other entities, such as CSIRO, or the ABC.
Scientists in the era of profoundly anti-science government no longer have the luxury of a dignified silence at-a-distance, letting their work speak for itself, and relying on their ministers to defend them. If they don’t defend themselves, they can’t complain if the public gets the wrong message. Abbott is going to savage their budgets and intellectual freedoms anyway, he has made that abundantly clear. Might as well go down fighting, at least there is a chance then.
Nett_NEWS++™ by @Otiose94 http://bit.ly/1nAtjp1 #Government, #asbestos_julie Drives by David Rowe © http://bit.ly/1thj6BI
Zoom
[But Astro has a thing about me, and he can’t let it alone.]
It’s boring as bats#it posting meanwhile.
Otoise
The Rowe cartoon …
Pyne getting very stylized.
😀
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-29/while-you-were-getting-worked-up-over-oil-prices-this-just-happened-to-solar.html
[After years of struggling against cheap natural gas prices and variable subsidies, solar electricity is on track to be as cheap or cheaper than average electricity-bill prices in 47 U.S. states — in 2016, according to a Deutsche Bank report published this week. That’s assuming the U.S. maintains its 30 percent tax credit on system costs, which is set to expire that same year.
Even if the tax credit drops to 10 percent, solar will soon reach price parity with conventional electricity in well over half the nation: 36 states. Gone are the days when solar panels were an exotic plaything of Earth-loving rich people. Solar is becoming mainstream, and prices will continue to drop as the technology improves and financing becomes more affordable, according to the report.]
The end of the carbon economy is approaching very quickly.