Three new (or new-ish) Victorian state polls:
• ReachTEL has published results from a Victorian state poll of 1153 respondents conducted on Thursday night for the Seven Network, showing Labor with a lead of 53-47 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 37.5% for Labor, 38.6% for the Coalition and 13.3% for the Greens. The poll also finds Denis Napthine’s performance rated good or very good by 29.5% and poor or very poor by 38.5%; Daniel Andrews with respective ratings of 22.8% and 39.3%; and 47.7% supportive of the East West Link tunnel versus 29.5% opposed, along with other questions related to the project.
• A Galaxy poll for the Herald-Sun has Labor leading 52-48 with the Coalition on 40% of the primary vote and Labor on 38%, all of which is unchanged on the previous Galaxy poll in August, with the Greens up a point to 13% and Palmer United down one to 2%. However, Denis Napthine’s lead over Daniel Andrews as preferred premier has widened from 41-33 to 43-27.
• The Victorian National Parks Association has also reported results from a poll of 812 respondents conducted by Essential Research from October 9 to 14, which has Labor leading 54-46 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 38% each for Labor and the Coalition and 16.5% for the Greens (exclusive of the 21% undecided, which suggests waverers were not given a follow-up question as to who they were leaning towards). The poll also found strong opposition to private sector development in parks.
And furthermore:
• The very first Fairfax-Ipsos poll, which will be a Victorian state poll, should be with us over the next few days.
• Apparently Morgan has been conducting another of its nationwide SMS polls on state voting intention, so stay tuned for Victorian and other results from that one as well.
UPDATE (Morgan poll): Looks like that Morgan poll is Victorian only – the sample is a big one, of 1860. It has Labor leading 52.5-47.5 on two-party preferred, which is well in line with the others, although the Labor vote (34%) looks under-nourished relative to the Greens (18.5%). The Coalition is on 37.5% and Palmer United on 2.5%, although as Glen299 notes in comments, Palmer United will not in fact be fielding candidates in the lower house.
William & Kevin: Is it not also possible that in between the other polls and the Morgan, a statistically-significant portion of Labor voters jumped ship to the Greens (perhaps due to Marles’ comments about boat turnbacks souring those remaining Labor voters who give a stuff about them)?
I guess we’ll find out when a few more polls come out.
Corio @ 46
A rail line to Avalon would be a profound waste of money.
CTar1 @ 47
It’s not about people.
The money is in the freight.
Lindsay Fox “Come on down”.
Point 1: What sort of freight that goes on to planes is likely to be transported in any quantity by rail?
Point 2: Lindsay Fox owns a very large trucking company.
Would be interesting to how Morgan account for older voters who are probably not inclined to respond to an SMS poll, as landline based firms do so for younger voters.
RE: 51, that’s incredibly unlikely. This is the second Morgan poll with these sorts of primary votes, it was conducted over the same or similar period as the others and there’s nothing to back it up.
glen299: I’d imagine they account for it much the same way that the other pollsters do for younger voters – by demographic weighting of their samples.
As for the “same or similar period”, the Morgan was done over 24-27 October (Marles’ comments came on the 26th, so the tail end could have been exposed to it), whereas the ReachTEL was done on the night of the 23rd only and the Essential (Vic parks) done from the 9th to the 14th.
Can’t seem to find any information on the Galaxy, but the above seems to cast doubt on your assertion that the Morgan was done over the same period as the other polls (being done entirely after the ReachTEL and Essential polls).
RE: 55 – I honestly don’t see how comments on asylum policy that got middling coverage, coverage that well behind other issues here in Victoria (such as a major party campaign launch on the same day), shift the Greens vote by 5%.
It’s still a similar period (sans the Vic Parks Essential) and given it was in the last poll too, it looks far more like a problem with the methodology.
Betfair price have not moved with this cluster of polls the coalition is still over $4.
The punter don’t appear to expect much chance of the polls narrowing over the next month.
This book looks good for those interested in Victoria’s political history.
http://insidestory.org.au/how-hamer-made-it-happen
[How Hamer made it happen
27 October 2014
Dick Hamer’s election as Victorian Liberal leader was a seachange in the state’s politics and culture, writes Judith Brett
Dick Hamer: The Liberal Liberal
By Tim Colebatch | Scribe | $59.99
Dick Hamer became premier of Victoria in August 1972, just a few months before the election of Gough Whitlam’s government. Liberal premier Hamer and Labor prime minister Whitlam were part of the same watershed in our history between an authoritarian, British and masculinist Australia and the more tolerant and open society developing since the war. When Hamer became premier after seventeen years of Henry Bolte, it was almost as profound a shift in Victorian politics as it would have been if the Liberals had lost office. The party went on to win the 1973 state election in a landslide with the slogan “Hamer makes it happen.”]
i predict that labor will be able to win a good 55% of the 2PP vote at least – in line with newspoll.
I was in south yarra last week (i live in sydney), i wanted to go to dandenong and at the station they wanted $12.50 from me. i was shocked. the station staff told me to lodge a complaint to the government.
i also saw numerous ambulances that had a banner hanging from the side which cursed napthine.
andrews is a far younger and more youthful figure than napthine who looks outdated and out-of-touch
that morgan poll 2PP is not right. the primary votes for both major parties are unchanged and there is minimal movement elsewhere. it prob still is in the 54-46 range, it just somehow shows as 52.5-47.5
59
I do not think the ALP will have a landslide victory like that. The polls are closer and the Coalition will do and say just about anything to stay in power.
South Yarra is in Zone 1 and Dandenong is in zone 2, that means $6.06 for a 2 hour fare or $12.12 for a daily. Did you already have a Myki? If not that is $6. Thus if you were getting a 2 hour fare and a Myki then you should have only needed $12.10 or if you were getting a daily then it should have been only $12.20 (the Myki vending machines work in increments of $0.10).
Unitary State@59
Tom the first and best@61
I tend to agree with Tom, the Libs will go aggressively negative and will stop just short of saying Labor will cause an Ebola outbreak. I expect it will work to a certain extent but I’m predicting a modest Labor victory.
Yeah, I don’t expect it’ll be anything like a blowout. But I do think that most peoples opinions on Napthine have hardened in recent months.
I’m expecting a 6 to 10 seat Labor victory, and maybe 1 or 2 Greens on the crossbench to buffer out the majority a bit.
http://www.crikey.com.au/2014/10/29/essential-labor-on-track-in-victoria-and-palmer-collapsing-in-qld/
From Bernard Keane’s paywalled article today. The Victoria bit reads…
[Essential: Labor on track in Victoria — and Palmer collapsing in Qld
Bernard Keane | Oct 29, 2014 1:13PM
Labor remains in the lead in Victoria, polling from Essential Research shows, and Clive Palmer’s party has faded badly in Queensland.
Labor remains on course for a narrow win in the coming Victorian state election, new polling from Essential Research shows.
Polling conducted over the course of October, with a sample size of 899, shows Victorian Labor on 38%, the Coalition on 39% and the Greens on 12%, for a 52%-48% 2PP outcome in favour of Labor.
Labor’s vote is down a point since September and down three points since July, but the shift appears mainly to have been to the Greens, which are now at their highest support level since February. The Coalition’s vote is steady, but at 39% is down two points from June and three points from April.]
[mark forbes @forbes007
New Fairfax/Ipsos poll in @theage overnight will rock #springst
7:15 PM – 29 Oct 2014]
From the News Director of The Age
Does anybody know what the Liberals will be doing on their HTVs re: Greens/Labor preference order in the seats where the Greens comfortably outpoll the Libs (eg. Melbourne, Brunswick, Northcote, Richmond)?
The Australian, which apparently thinks it reasonable to describe contesting an election as a “power grab”, reported the other day that the Liberals were about to announce they would again put the Greens last. And that the opinion of the party membership would preclude them doing anything else, even if it were tactically advantageous.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/victorian-liberal-party-moves-tostop-greens-power-grab/story-e6frgczx-1227100325673
Arrnea Stormbringer
The Liberal have said they will likely put the Greens last on all their HTV cards across the state. There was a paywalled story in the Oz. Helen Kroger was pushing them to repeat their 2010 move, which the Libs attribute a boost in their campaign then. At that time, there was a lot of talk of hung parliaments in a tight state election, and who was going to do a “grubby preference deal” with who, and the Libs surprisingly said they would do the right thing (from their own members ideological standpoint) and preference the Greens after Labor. All the savvy pundits thought they would prefer to stick it the ALP. Putting Greens last allowed them to say, we’re for a majority govt and stand by our principles, we won’t do a deal with people we oppose. It seemed to work for them in a very tight election. Remember, this was right after the federal hung parliament wrangling.
From my own conversation with some local Libs after 2010, I understand the Lib party members in the federal seat of Melbourne really pushed for that stance in the last state election and in every vote since. Its an ideological rather than tactical push. They really don’t want more local MPs who are the Greens, who they hate more than the ALP. Of course, many Lib voters still preference Greens before the ALP, but I’m talking about the predominate membership view.
Watch this vid for more info.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-24/preferences-set-to-scupper-greens/5840796
Hmmm… thanks for that, William.
In that case, I think the Greens are a good chance to pick up Brunswick and Melbourne, but will miss out in Richmond and Northcote.
Labor will still get their majority in the lower house.
Ipsos Poll for the Age is 56/44 to Labor.
Full figures aren’t out yet, but the sample was high.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-state-election-2014/ipsos-meet-the-new-age-poller-20141029-11d0is.html
[Ipsos. Meet the new Age poller
October 29, 2014 – 6:02PM
Peter Martin
Economics Editor, The Age
The Age begins a new chapter in its political polling this morning in partnership with Ipsos, one of the world’s leading research firms.
Ipsos polls in more than 120 countries and has conducted election polls in Canada, the United States, Italy, France, Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, Ireland the United Kingdom, the Ukraine, Russia and Peru. It is taking over from long-term pollster Nielsen, which has withdrawn from political polling. Ipsos will be conducting national and state polls for Fairfax Media.
Ipsos’ 2008 US presidential poll was regarded as the most accurate of the 22 covering the election that brought Barack Obama to power.
Its first poll for The Age covering the Victorian election surveys 1400 voters, roughly twice the number usually surveyed in state polls, and broadly in line with the “gold standard” used for national polls.
“The margin of error for a sample of 1400 is about 2.6 per cent,” said Ipsos Australia managing director Mark Davis. “We may change the size of the state polls over time but certainly for the first one we wanted it to be a pretty robust sample.”
Ipsos also distinguishes itself from its competitors by calling mobile as well as fixed numbers.]
Actally I think ReachTEL call mobiles, and maybe Galaxy too? Newspoll don’t and Nielsen didn’t. Don’t think Morgan do for most polls, SMS polls of course excepted.
GG a hunch or based on solid info?
New thread:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/10/29/fairfax-ipsos-56-44-to-labor-in-victoria/