ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor in Victoria; Galaxy: 52-48

More evidence emerging that Labor has a solid election-winning lead going into the Victorian state campaign, despite weak personal ratings for Daniel Andrews.

Three new (or new-ish) Victorian state polls:

• ReachTEL has published results from a Victorian state poll of 1153 respondents conducted on Thursday night for the Seven Network, showing Labor with a lead of 53-47 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 37.5% for Labor, 38.6% for the Coalition and 13.3% for the Greens. The poll also finds Denis Napthine’s performance rated good or very good by 29.5% and poor or very poor by 38.5%; Daniel Andrews with respective ratings of 22.8% and 39.3%; and 47.7% supportive of the East West Link tunnel versus 29.5% opposed, along with other questions related to the project.

• A Galaxy poll for the Herald-Sun has Labor leading 52-48 with the Coalition on 40% of the primary vote and Labor on 38%, all of which is unchanged on the previous Galaxy poll in August, with the Greens up a point to 13% and Palmer United down one to 2%. However, Denis Napthine’s lead over Daniel Andrews as preferred premier has widened from 41-33 to 43-27.

• The Victorian National Parks Association has also reported results from a poll of 812 respondents conducted by Essential Research from October 9 to 14, which has Labor leading 54-46 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 38% each for Labor and the Coalition and 16.5% for the Greens (exclusive of the 21% undecided, which suggests waverers were not given a follow-up question as to who they were leaning towards). The poll also found strong opposition to private sector development in parks.

And furthermore:

• The very first Fairfax-Ipsos poll, which will be a Victorian state poll, should be with us over the next few days.

• Apparently Morgan has been conducting another of its nationwide SMS polls on state voting intention, so stay tuned for Victorian and other results from that one as well.

UPDATE (Morgan poll): Looks like that Morgan poll is Victorian only – the sample is a big one, of 1860. It has Labor leading 52.5-47.5 on two-party preferred, which is well in line with the others, although the Labor vote (34%) looks under-nourished relative to the Greens (18.5%). The Coalition is on 37.5% and Palmer United on 2.5%, although as Glen299 notes in comments, Palmer United will not in fact be fielding candidates in the lower house.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

73 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor in Victoria; Galaxy: 52-48”

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  1. Do Reachtel publish the exact question(s) and any preamble they used on the East-West link? Seems a bit counter-intuitive when you look at the TPP figure.

  3. #1 ajm – William is correct. The questions are read out verbatim as per the blog post. There was no additional preamble to describe the East-West Link.

  4. Thanks for info. Had a read of the questions. I think it would have been more meaningful if the alternative of the East-West link or more public transport had been the focus, rather than simply asking whether people support the government doing “something”. All the other questions juxtapose alternatives directly. Room for a thesis I expect, but one for which I unfortunately don’t have the time or resources!

  5. Labor should be happy with this position going into the election campaign. They’ve also put out some solid promises on education funding (eg. reversing some of Napthine’s cuts), so they should get a warm reception for that.

    Now all they need to do is not blow it between now and the election and they’re home and hosed.

  10. Microsoft founder donating $100m for Ebola safety net for affected medical workers. A fraction of the money pissed away by Abbott on MH370, MH17 and IS reaction both domestic and in the Middle East. Maybe he will send some staff now it is “safe”?

    [SEATTLE — Billionaire Paul Allen, who owns the Seattle Seahawks and the Portland Trail Blazers, has pledged to contribute at least $100 million to the fight against the deadly Ebola virus.

    Seahawks owner Paul Allen is donating $100 million to the fight against the Ebola virus.
    “We’re faced with a huge challenge with Ebola,” Allen told ESPN.com’s Kevin Arnovitz on Friday night. “If you have one of these epidemics with the number of cases potentially doubling every 20 days, to get ahead of that and contain it, you have to send large numbers of health workers over to the affected areas, and get them in place and get communications going with communities. If the health workers get ill, they want to know they can get medevaced out of there. So we’ve been trying to do a few things, to build containers that can go on planes to help with the health workers evacuated.

    The Microsoft co-founder said Thursday that among the initiatives he’s supporting is the development of two medevac containment units that the U.S. State Department can use to safely evacuate health workers who become infected.

    Allen said he’s working with the World Health Organization to increase its capacity for handling the logistics of transporting international aid workers, and he’s establishing a fund to help cover the costs of emergency transportation of the workers.

    Money also will go to the University of Massachusetts Medical School to help provide decontamination and lab equipment to Liberian hospitals, as well as community outreach and education in Liberia.

    “I think we’ve now seen that even something that’s happening in West Africa, how it can arrive on our doorsteps very quickly,” Allen told ESPN.com. “We’re all interconnected in today’s world.”]

  11. @ sprocket_

    It’s also worth noting that the swing given in that poll would put two more Liberal seats on a knife-edge (Prahran and South Barwon). Both are entirely winnable for Labor (especially if Vic Labor can reproduce SA Labor’s knack for doing better in the marginal seats than their overall 2PP would seem to indicate).

  12. There is a VIC Galaxy Poll, 52-48 to ALP (no change from August)

    So far, just the editorial mentioning it is online, which puts the best possible spin on it for the govt. Main article will probably go up in the next hour or two.

    http://www.news.com.au/national/the-latest-galaxy-poll-is-a-boost-for-premier-denis-napthine/story-e6frfkp9-1227102760945
    [The latest Galaxy poll is a boost for Premier Denis Napthine
    4 hours ago October 26, 2014 6:20PM

    THE latest Herald Sun Galaxy poll will be seen by Coalition politicians as a positive one.

    That’s despite it showing Labor has maintained its lead over the Coalition.

    As the Herald Sun is revealing today, the poll indicates the flow of voters deserting the Coalition has stabilised.

    It shows there has been no change since the last Galaxy poll in August, with the two-party preferred figure remaining at 48 per cent for the Coalition and 52 per cent for Labor, with just five weeks to the election.

    But the figure that will give the Coalition hope is the 16-point lead Premier Denis Napthine now has over Opposition Leader Daniel Andrews as preferred premier.

    A whopping 43 per cent of those polled think Dr Napthine would make the better premier, compared with the 27 per cent who preferred
    Mr Andrews.

    In August, when the last Herald Sun Galaxy poll was taken, the result was 41 per cent for Dr Napthine and 33 per cent for Mr Andrews.]

    Previous VIC Galaxy poll in August below.
    http://www.galaxyresearch.com.au/14-15-august/

  13. I thought the ALP made a good move today talking up education funding.

    As Ive long argued here – Napthine is GAAWWWNN. The sheer amount of VIC taxpayer dollars they are pissing against a wall trying the polish the turd of their dead government walking should lead to charges being laid against the VIC LNP for theft of public monies.

    They are so despeerate now they are GIVING AWAY fed sq east to a developer (read: “someone give us millions for when we can no longer loot treasury after the campaign starts”).

    They are one of the worst government ive seen in this country and the sooner the VIC public get to put this lot out of our misery the better.

    These disgraceful deadbeats couldnt even get us the reduced Gonski money every other state got.

    IN THE BIN.

  16. ajm@1

    Do Reachtel publish the exact question(s) and any preamble they used on the East-West link? Seems a bit counter-intuitive when you look at the TPP figure.

    Or it could just be it is not a big driver of voting intention.

  18. Herald Sun Front page

    https://twitter.com/tminear/status/526340868815351808

    http://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/labor-maintains-an-electionwinning-lead-latest-herald-sungalaxy-opinion-poll-shows/story-fnii5sms-1227102970691
    [Labor maintains an election-winning lead, latest Herald Sun/Galaxy opinion poll shows
    October 26, 2014 11:48PM
    JAMES CAMPBELL
    Herald Sun

    LABOR is holding an election- winning lead over the ­Coalition with just 33 days until voters head to the ballot boxes — 52-48 ahead.

    Less than five weeks out from the November 29 decider, a Herald Sun/Galaxy opinion poll has found Opposition Leader Daniel Andrews is on track to be Victoria’s next premier with Labor on the same 52-48 per cent two-party preferred lead it had in August.

    …………….

    The Galaxy poll has Labor’s primary vote on 38 per cent — up 1.8 per cent from the last state election.

    The Coalition is on 40 per cent — a 4.8 per cent drop from its 2010 result.

    The poll shows a 3.6 per cent two-party preferred swing to Labor since the 2010 election, which if repeated on Nov­ember 29 would give the party a 12-seat majority in the Legislative Assembly.

    ………….

    The Greens vote has risen by 1 per cent since August to 13 per cent, while the Palmer United Party is down by 1 per cent to 2 per cent.]

  19. Good to see Andrews retains a winning lead despite finally doing the right thing over the East west link.

    Like AJP I question the wording of the EW link question. If you ask voters, do you want this bright shiny new road, they say “yes”. If you ask, will you pay $8 a day in tolls to use it only about 70% of those in favour still say “yes”. If you ask, do you support the taxpayers guaranteeing $6 billion in loans to a private toll road company, and no public transport improvements for five years, you might get a very much worse response.

  20. Socrates

    Posted Monday, October 27, 2014 at 7:26 am | Permalink

    Good to see Andrews retains a winning lead despite finally doing the right thing over the East west link.

    🙂

  21. [ and any preamble they used on the East-West link?]

    The Victorian Govt should stop wanking on East-West.

    Better to build some heavy-duty rail to Avalon.

  23. 9

    That does not predict a majority of 12. It predicts the ALP having a 2PP majority over the Coalition in 50 seats out of 88. If the Greens do not take any of the seats where the ALP have a majority over the Coalition, which they may or may not do, then that gives the ALP 6 more seats than a majority.

    Parliamentary divisions are not first past the post votes, they are a ayes versus noes vote.

  24. [That does not predict a majority of 12. It predicts the ALP having a 2PP majority over the Coalition in 50 seats out of 88.]

    Tom

    In normal political parlance that is called a majority of 12.

  26. 23

    Decreasingly so, in Australia at least. Australia increasingly tends to measure majorities from the middle, where the majority actually starts.

    It is a plurality of 12 but a majority of 6. If 6 MLAs switched allegiances then there would be no majority.

  28. There’s some fairly obvious and significant problems with the weighting or sample in Morgan’s state polling. The just-released poll has the Greens at 18.5%.

    Will be interesting to see what happens when pollsters stop including Palmer, who is only running in the upper house.

  29. I agree with glen above, how the hell do you get a Green vote of 18.5 with that sample size if you’re doing it properly?

  30. One of the pollsters – Morgan I think – has been showing the Greens vote on 15% + for a long time. However, their 2pp always seems to align with the others.

  31. Socrates 19 – I think you’ll find the toll if this is finished in 2019 will be $10 each way (like a Melbourne Cup bet!). One of my family could commute that way but I think at $5000 per year if they went every weekday, they would instead not use it much.

  32. And I usually don’t address our PM directly, but here goes –

    “Tony, please come and campaign in Victoria – it is your responsibilty to the Liberal and National Parties. Can you please come every week from now until polling day. And spruik your $7 medicare tax, and a higher GST.”

  33. On a possibly related note, the 2PP breakdowns by age that Morgan has taken to publishing for its federal multi-mode polling are absurdly strong for Labor/weak for the Coalition in the 18-24 group. Maybe this points to a left skew among young people from SMS polling?

  34. If there was a promise to weather-proof the rail system, along with the removal of level crossings, Labor is on to a winner.

  35. I’m assuming the SMS polling would attract a higher number of Green voters, but I’m sure Roy Morgan would weight the numbers against this bias. Surely there is a problem with the way they’re adjusting those numbers.

  37. Weight it against what though? Pollsters do weighting by age, gender and region. If you’ve got a problem where, say, SMS polling gives the Greens a 30% vote among young male city-dwellers when the real figure is only 20%, weighting doesn’t solve the problem. They could weight against reported vote at the last election, as some do in the UK and US, but to my knowledge no pollsters do that here.

  39. I got polled for the first time ever tonight: A Newspoll on the VIC election which evidently isnt far off.

    Standard range of questions: I like the way Newspoll checks in with you 2-3 times about your first pref.

  40. Alizarin@38

    I’ve updated my Victorian state election model with these new polls if anyone is interested. http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/10/27/1339458/-Victorian-State-Election-Modeling-With-Venom

    That’s the first seat by seat model for Vic I’ve seen (crude by-the-pendulum uniform-swing versions not counted.) I’m hoping to have a crack at something similar next week time permitting (tied up with Council counts this week.)

    Something Adrian Beaumont raised with me and I’d like to raise here too: what odds the Green preference split to Labor is substantially stronger than last time? To the extent that it might be worth a point or maybe even a bit more of 2PP?

  43. [Newspoll as well! With Fairfax Ipsos coming too we could have five state polls in the same week. Incredible!]

    I guess this will make up for the dry week in terms of Federal polling.

  44. [Better to build some heavy-duty rail to Avalon.]
    Better still to build the city rail tunnel link as originally promised. It has been studied to death and generated far more benefits than the other projects being debated. IT is badly needed, and would free up capacity for more jobs and development in the City. Melbourne’s economy would be boosted by it, quite apart from the time, fuel and toll savings for tens of thousands every day.

  45. 40

    The Green split to Labor might well be stronger, but only if their primary vote doesn’t increase. I know the general feeling is that the Greens will underperform their polling but for me that hasn’t been a long enough trend that I’m not sure the recent elections (non-Tasmanian, there’s issues with EMRS and the Greens) where the Greens have underperformed aren’t just a result of chance.

    Venom assumes the preference of Green voters to preference Labor won’t change, but it also assumes the polls aren’t systemically wrong. That is, it can cope if a miss is the result of chance but not if everyone is just consistently wrong.

    I’m interested to see your model when it’s ready!

  46. CTar1 @21

    Better to build some heavy-duty rail to Avalon.

    A rail line to Avalon would be a profound waste of money. There are only five flights a day! That’s one broken Coalition promise I have no problems with.

    —–
    Socrates @ 44

    Better still to build the city rail tunnel link as originally promised.

    A major benefit of the Melbourne Metro, in contrast to the Coalition’s “back-of-the-envelope” alternative, is that it relieves pressure on tram services in St Kilda Road and Swanston Street, which are now nearing saturation point.

  47. Corio,

    [A rail line to Avalon would be a profound waste of money.]

    It’s not about people.

    The money is in the freight.

    [Lindsay Fox “Come on down”.

  48. The Greens have been campaigning pretty hard in central Melbourne, they’ve got a lot of young people in their ranks, and their vote is certainly on the way up (Although perhaps not quite that much). Maybe their expansion in Victoria is hitting certain demographics and localities more than others, and Morgan just needs to change their samples and extrapolations to adapt?

  49. Peter Martin:
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/political-gamble-victorian-government-power-sold-to-crown-casino-20141027-11c0tl.html
    [Daniel Andrews and Denis Napthine are competing for glory without power. Neither really wants to govern.

    Napthine signed away his right to make laws that tackled gambling and smoking in an extraordinary deal waved through Parliament days before the election campaign. The law not only restricts the actions of the Napthine government should it get back, but the actions of every future Victorian government for the next 36 years.

    Should a future government decide to impose a $1 betting limit on poker machines (as recommended by the Productivity Commission); should it decide to enforce the use of precommitment technology on poker machines; or should it require automatic teller machines to be further away from poker machines, it’ll be up for a $200 million payment to Crown. The size of the penalty will climb with inflation. By the time the provision expires in 2050 the penalty will be $480 million.

    ……….

    And Labor under Andrews? It voted for it. Andrews was silent during the debate. His treasury spokesman Tim Pallas spoke of the importance of “certainty” for Crown, apparently forgetting its status as a specialist in gambling. Crown employs 8800 people.

    Aware that he was voting for a “regulatory time bomb” he said Victoria’s hotels and clubs would demand similar assurances in the future. He failed to acknowledge that all sorts of Victorian businesses will demand similar assurances and that Victoria has set a precedent for businesses in other states to demand similar deals.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/political-gamble-victorian-government-power-sold-to-crown-casino-20141027-11c0tl.html#ixzz3HNu1eJhL

  50. 44

    There are issues with the metro tunnel plan.

    For starters, nobody is proposing to undo the change in south-eastern portal location from Caulfield to South Yarra and this means there is little scope for an increase in train numbers on the Pakenham/Cranbourne line more than alteration of the track configuration through Richmond, to allow cross platform transfer between loop and direct trains (allowing the safe removal of Frankston line loop services ), would allow. There would be the option of high capacity signalling (moving block) under both proposals. However the Frankston and Newport lines would have to be swapped with the Pakenham/Canbourne and Sunbury(/Melton) lines to allow 9-car trains under the flyover plan, unlike with the tunnel plan.

    The extra track capacity for the western suburbs could be provided significantly more cheaply by through-routing the Northern loop with either the Burnley loop or the Caulfield loop.

    The tunnel plan has a certain ‘build central tunnel first and then find a lack of money for suburban extentions’ smell about it after what happened with the city loop.

    44 & 46

    The tram capacity on St Kilda Rd could be addressed by building an extra tram track pair between the current Elizabeth St terminus and St Kilda Junction.

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