Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Only minor changes on voting intention in Essential Research this week, but monthly personal ratings add to an impression of solid improvement for Tony Abbott.

No change on two-party preferred this week on Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average, with Labor remaining 52-48 ahead, but the Coalition has gained a point on the primary vote, to 41%, at the expense of the steady decline of Palmer United, down one to 3%. Labor and the Greens are steady on 39% and 10%. Essential also features its monthly personal ratings, adding to a picture of improvement for Tony Abbott who is up five on approval to 40% and down four on disapproval to 48%, while Bill Shorten is steady on both measures at 35% and 36%. Abbott has also opened up a fairly solid 38-32 lead as preferred prime minister after trailing 35-36 last time.

Other questions find an impressive 72-2 split on the question of whether the gap between the rich and poor has increased over the past decade, and a series of further questions address what respondents feel should be done about it. A question on mining finds no view to the effect that it has become more or less important to Australia since five years ago, but there is a very strong view that mining exports principally benefit company executives and shareholders. In dealing with budgetary problems, there is a 68-22 split in favour of higher corporate tax and 56-31 in favour of abandoning the parental leave scheme, but 67-21 against “cuts to tax concessions in areas like superannuation”, 69-21 against for higher income taxes and 81-12 against for cuts to social services, health and education.

Newspoll has had another week off, presumably so its return can be timed to coincide with the resumption of parliament next Tuesday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

708 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Abbott is a bully. Always has been.

    The thing about bullies is that they generally do it because they need to compensate for their own inadequacies by demonstrating (to themselves) their power over others.

    And if their bullying is successful, it tends to make them escalate it further each time.

    Some types get away with it their whole lives, because they are clever enough to be careful who they bully, and who sees them doing it.

    But other types are so stupid they eventually try and bully someone who is even bigger and nastier than they are … and/or they make the mistake of doing their bullying publicly instead of privately.

    Guess which type of bully Abbott is?

  2. I think if you told PHI holders they weren’t allowed to be public patients anymore, people would desert private health insurance in droves.

  3. caf:

    Maybe. Perhaps not though. The reasons I have PHI is to get some coverage of ancillary procedures like dental and physio, and in case I need an operation that won’t require me to wait. I’m sure there are a lot of people around like me.

  4. [There is plenty of red over Sydney atm]

    And I’m totally jealous! We just don’t see rainfall like that anymore in these parts.

  5. October 13-14 are becoming interesting weather dates in Sydney and nearby

    2012-heavy snow in Blue Mountains
    2013- rampant bush fires
    2014 – big storms and snow in the Blue Mountains

  6. Shirtfront in Bloomberg news this afternoon – the article carries on about Abbott’s and Putin’s sporting/fighting prowess.

    [Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s pledge to “shirtfront” Vladimir Putin at next month’s Group of 20 summit is unlikely to cow the Russian president, a black-belt in judo celebrated at home for his physical prowess.

    Using an Australian rules football term for flattening an opponent with a shoulder charge, Abbott said yesterday he would confront Putin over Russia’s alleged support for separatist rebels who shot down a passenger jet over Ukraine. Putin, a former KGB colonel, may relish such a face-off.]

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-14/abbott-shirtfront-unlikely-to-ruffle-judo-black-belt-putin.html

    Maybe Putin will actually initiate a physical confrontation to protect/enhance his macho image -he would certainly not want to be seen publicly taking a lecture from Abbott. An aggressive stance on Putin’s part would see his electoral standing in Russia soar. To heck with the rest of the world, much of which hates him anyway.

    This could become serious folks!

  7. confessions: If you knew that by getting private hospital cover you were risking large out-of-pocket expenses should you need non-elective admission to hospital, that would have to play a part in your decision.

  8. Abbott will be just like the Rabbit he was when he was going to tell that rascally Indo PM a thing or two.

    When he fronted the Indonesian PM (or is it President) he squibbed it and said Sweet F#@k All. He dogged it.

    Yeah Tone – it’s sure to be real robust

  9. [If you knew that by getting private hospital cover you were risking large out-of-pocket expenses should you need non-elective admission to hospital, that would have to play a part in your decision.]

    Exactly. And I’d reckon there are a ton of people out there just like me.

    Question is however, should the govt be putting limits around how often PHI covered patients can be treated as a public patient? Our current system sees private insurers benefiting from the public system. If it was up to me, we’d be doing something about that, including ditching the tax rebates for having PHI.

  10. Is it possible that Tony Abbott wanted to say “buttonhole” and his brain came up with “shirtfront”? Like suppository vs repository of wisdom?

    Shirtfronting is extremely violent. In AFL it’s an illegal tackle delivered by the shoulder to the chest. Buttonholing makes more sense in this context. It means to abruptly detain someone for a conversation. Both metaphors involve shirts. I think he got confused.

  11. confessions@169

    If you knew that by getting private hospital cover you were risking large out-of-pocket expenses should you need non-elective admission to hospital, that would have to play a part in your decision.


    Exactly. And I’d reckon there are a ton of people out there just like me.

    Question is however, should the govt be putting limits around how often PHI covered patients can be treated as a public patient? Our current system sees private insurers benefiting from the public system. If it was up to me, we’d be doing something about that, including ditching the tax rebates for having PHI.

    It would be good if such patients were treated as public patients and then their PHI billed.

    I may have misunderstood, but I thought this was in fact happening at Vic Public Hospitals.

  12. meanwhile…

    http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/10/battle-rages-control-syria-kobane-2014101323728874113.html

    [Battles have continued to rage on along Turkey’s border between the Islamic State in Syria and the Levant (ISIL) fighters and Syrian Kurds as anti-ISIL coalition’s military chiefs prepare to meet in the US capital.

    Activists said the self-declared jihadist fighters fought their way on Monday into central Kobane in heavy clashes with the Syrian border town’s Kurdish defenders, a day before a Washington DC meeting of the US-led coalition against the ISIL.

    The offensive resulted in the ISIL claiming half of Kobane, despite more than three weeks of US-led air strikes in Syria aimed at stopping them and nearly a month after the fighters began their assault on the town.

    US and Saudi fighter jets targeted seven sites around Kobane, the US military said on Monday, including ISIL staging posts used to try to cut Kobane from the outside world.
    Pinpointing military and humanitarian aid from nations in the international struggle against the armed group.

    Fighting has spread of late to less than a kilometre from the barbed wire frontier fence, with ISIL fighters carrying out three suicide car-bomb attacks in the border zone, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which monitors the developments in Syria through sources on the ground.

    The Britain-based group also said ISIL seized a major building in the city centre and squeezed the town’s Kurdish defenders into its northern half bordering Turkey.

    John Kerry, the US secretary of state, said on Sunday in Cairo that the US was deeply concerned about the “tragedy” in Kobane, but added that Kobane did not define the strategy for the coalition.

    That failure in Kobane will be among the main points up for discussion at Tuesday’s meeting in Washington DC of military chiefs from the 21 countries in the US-led coalition, as will Turkey’s call for the establishment of a protective buffer zone.

    Australia, Bahrain, Belgium, Britain, Canada, Denmark, Egypt, France, Germany, Iraq, Italy, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Spain, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and the US will be represented at the meeting.

    Turkey denies deal

    Against this backdrop of continued tensions, Turkey has rejected reports that it and the US had come to an agreement for the coalition to use Turkish bases in the fight against ISIL.]

  13. Nicholas@170

    Is it possible that Tony Abbott wanted to say “buttonhole” and his brain came up with “shirtfront”? Like suppository vs repository of wisdom?

    Shirtfronting is extremely violent. In AFL it’s an illegal tackle delivered by the shoulder to the chest. Buttonholing makes more sense in this context. It means to abruptly detain someone for a conversation. Both metaphors involve shirts. I think he got confused.

    Yours is the most sensible explanation I’ve seen. But it does highlight what an idiot we have as PM.

  14. I think Cranky messed up and tried to hit us with the whole bag of talking points from the latest Lib email, all at once.

    Spread them out over a couple of days, at least, mate. No point in burning the lot in one dump.

    Either that, or they are so predictably soul-wastingly vacuous and discredited that even the likes of Crankers can’t face wasting any more of his life promoting or defending them. So he just quickly spewed them out in a handful of posts, and ran bravely away.

  15. bemused

    I know we loved getting private patients into our hospitals here – they got exactly the same treatment as public patients and we got paid more for them. Basically, they subsidised the treatment of others.

  16. zoomster@175

    bemused

    I know we loved getting private patients into our hospitals here – they got exactly the same treatment as public patients and we got paid more for them. Basically, they subsidised the treatment of others.

    Was I correct in what I said?

  17. Amazing the woman on the Drum tonight from the Australian. Is she a turd polisher or what?? No you moron, Abbott’s statements today about a robust discussion with Putin ARE NOT the same as telling the world he is going to “shirtfront” him. How does someone THAT stupid get a job as an editor????

    Is Rupert running some kind of sheltered workshop for has been, never were, right wing idiots?? That’s what the Liberal front bench is for.

  18. Off topic but parts of Sydney are in the midst of severe thunderstorms. A gust of 161kmh was recorded at Wattamolla 40 km South of Sydney. The Airport is closed. Some rainfalls over 80mm in Sydney’s Southern suburbs.

  19. Steve777

    Kids are enjoying the radar loop care of our friends at BoM.

    Dad we’re in the red!!!!

    Laughing at our dick government trashing such an amazingly good PUBLIC service.

  20. Regarding Sydney

    @9NewsSyd: JUST IN: Reports houses in Bexley are submerged due to flash flooding. Tweet your STORM pictures to @9NewsSyd. #9Newscomau #9News

  21. http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2014/10/14/Turkey-bombs-Kurdish-rebel-targets-in-southeast-.html

    [Turkish fighter planes launched air strikes on Tuesday against positions of the banned Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) following attacks by militants on Turkish military outposts, Turkish media reported.

    The escalation is the first since a 2013 ceasefire and the start of peace talks and came on the backdrop of tensions between the government in Ankara and the country’s Kurdish population. Kurds are angry at Ankara’s lack of action to save the Syrian border town of Kobane.
    Turkish F-16 jets dropped bombs late Monday on PKK targets in the village of Daglica in the Kurdish-majority Hakkari province near the border with Iraq, AFP reported a Turkish source as saying on condition of anonymity.

    The security source told AFP that the PKK had been launching gun attacks on the police station in Daglica since Saturday because of the troubles in Kobane.]

  22. I had never heard of “shirtfronting” — I have little doubt this wasn’t what Abbott had exactly intended to say, but as usual his MSM supporters were ready to spin and polish it for him.

    Even the low rent “The Project” TV show wheeled out Barrie Cassidy to defend Abbott’s gaffe — Mr Cassidy would not back down even when one panelist dared to disagree.

    While the “received wisdom” in the press gallery is that this has been “politically good” for Abbott, I think it is highly risky since it reminds the public of Abbott’s Latham streak and it is playing out in what had been Abbott’s ony real political strength to date (“international affairs”).

    If Abbott Lathamises his only strength, he will be in deep do do.

  23. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN@191

    Tone, who punches walls behind women, is going to “shirt-front” a direct heir of Stalin. Shit, this is gonna be funny.

    Abbott will go down in history as the first Australian PM to “punch below his weight”.

  24. Fess

    [Illegal? Yeesh, what are the penalties?]

    It breaches the State-Fed Health Care Agreement. The Feds could turn the tap off if a hospital tried it.

  25. [192
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, October 14, 2014 at 10:34 pm | PERMALINK
    Lateline has a Russian on to talk about Abbott]

    Great! The presenter can monster him into “yes/no” questions on the MH17 incident and Putin’s wider ambitions in the former Eastern Bloc…

  26. [I think if you told PHI holders they weren’t allowed to be public patients anymore, people would desert private health insurance in droves.]

    No one would get PHI as there are plenty of times you have no choice other than going to a public hospital. The ambulance will take you there if it’s closest and you are really sick, or if you have major trauma, or are confused or unconscious.

    Some services are nit available in private hospitals but that’s pretty uncommon now.

  27. Crazy weather in Sydney I’ve been informed. Stay safe Sydney PBs.

    Heard this senior diplomat from the Russian Embassy interviewed on PM.

    He said that the interpretation of shirtfront is recognised by Aussies but will probably be missed in the international context. He highlighted WTTE Abbott is addressing Australians and not the international media or Russia.

  28. Bemused

    [bemused
    They have to ‘fess up to having private health cover.

    I don’t recall if I did or not.]

    You have to sign a form to be admitted privately and list your provider otherwise the hospital won’t know who to bill.

  29. [Tone, who punches walls behind women, is going to “shirt-front” a direct heir of Stalin. Shit, this is gonna be funny.]

    HaHAAH!

    Thats wins the internet today.

  30. [Off topic but parts of Sydney are in the midst of severe thunderstorms. A gust of 161kmh was recorded at Wattamolla 40 km South of Sydney. The Airport is closed. Some rainfalls over 80mm in Sydney’s Southern suburbs.]

    One planeload of Adelaidians is about to find themselves in salubrious Newcastle instead of their intended destination…

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