Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Only minor changes on voting intention in Essential Research this week, but monthly personal ratings add to an impression of solid improvement for Tony Abbott.

No change on two-party preferred this week on Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average, with Labor remaining 52-48 ahead, but the Coalition has gained a point on the primary vote, to 41%, at the expense of the steady decline of Palmer United, down one to 3%. Labor and the Greens are steady on 39% and 10%. Essential also features its monthly personal ratings, adding to a picture of improvement for Tony Abbott who is up five on approval to 40% and down four on disapproval to 48%, while Bill Shorten is steady on both measures at 35% and 36%. Abbott has also opened up a fairly solid 38-32 lead as preferred prime minister after trailing 35-36 last time.

Other questions find an impressive 72-2 split on the question of whether the gap between the rich and poor has increased over the past decade, and a series of further questions address what respondents feel should be done about it. A question on mining finds no view to the effect that it has become more or less important to Australia since five years ago, but there is a very strong view that mining exports principally benefit company executives and shareholders. In dealing with budgetary problems, there is a 68-22 split in favour of higher corporate tax and 56-31 in favour of abandoning the parental leave scheme, but 67-21 against “cuts to tax concessions in areas like superannuation”, 69-21 against for higher income taxes and 81-12 against for cuts to social services, health and education.

Newspoll has had another week off, presumably so its return can be timed to coincide with the resumption of parliament next Tuesday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

708 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. (From previous thread)

    Tony Abbott and Vladimir Putin have l lot in common. They both like to play to the Action Man image. They both go in for cheap populism. They both appear in public or on film in a parilal state of undress. They boyh play the Nationalist card. They both appeal to religious conservatism. They’re both big on terrorism and security. They both have a strong authoritarian streak.

    One of them is much smarter. And his name isn’t Tony.

  3. from previous thread

    I am gobsmacked by the older Australians who voted for Abbott. Surely their years on this earth would have made them capable of recognising a bully so they could use the privacy of the voting booth to protect their own interests

  4. William

    [ Newspoll has had another week off this week, presumably so its return can be timed to coincide with the resumption of parliament next Tuesday. ]

    … or until it can get some better results for Abbott, perhaps? 🙂

  5. billie

    waiting at reception in the doctors’ this morning, an older farming type man was negotiating a suitable appointment with the receptionist.

    They’re flat out at the moment (I can’t get in for another fortnight), so she was trying to persuade him to see another doctor.

    “Yes, but he’s one of the brown ones, isn’t he?” was the response.

    Pretty sure that guy votes for Abbott…

  6. Zoom

    On my last trip into rural NSW I quietened the anti muslim rant of a Labor voter by pointing out that the local quack who is well liked has a muslim name.

    Even though they say that if you want to read the truth start at the back of the Daily Telegraph, the drumbeat of lies in the Daily Telegraph and The Australian that are echoed on Radio National news programs take their toll by moving the political opinion to the right.

    In the article about Miserabella being involved in a 3 corner contest for Indi the file photo of MacGowan in front of the creek was a more powerful image for local voters than the Miserabella photo with an urban background

    see http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/sophie-mirabella-comeback-could-be-blocked-by-threecornered-contest-in-indi-20141013-1156rt.html

  7. From previous thread:

    [A salient reminder to all patients not to be annoying.]

    Absolutely. You want good medical care, then don’t treat the medical staff (and their support staff) like shit. There are a million little ways they can pay you back, just when you are at your most vulnerable and needy.

    Though killing the patients might be a little drastic a retribution.

    [ “Yes, but he’s one of the brown ones, isn’t he?” was the response.]

    Well he better stay away from my area, they are predominantly various shades of brown around here these days, do speak better English than the average Aussie, and do their job well enough, in my experience.

    ———

    [A bloody embarrassment to this country,…]

    If only that is all he was. Instead he and his policy suite and whole approach to government is a huge here-and-now danger.

  8. Also from previous thread:

    [1280
    lefty e

    Abbott’s a genuine dimwit and the ALP is going too soft on him.

    Call his plans “amateur”, “simplistic” “kindergarten level” “the economic plan of a bygone era” – some of this will stick because Australians sense it already.

    I frankly think the ALP is far too soft on him.]

    Timing is critical here.

    Once the reality of Abbott’s great war fantasy has started to sink in to the voters, then the ALP can start turning up this kind of heat. The electorate, as you point out, is certainly well primed for it, thanks to Abbott’s own behaviour.

    But yes, that time is approaching.

  9. Just Me

    True, we don’t often kill people because they are annoying. It’s always fascinating to see just how many patients these medical staff can kill before they get caught.

    Interestingly she is accused for tampering with colleagues food by adding laxatives to them. That’s exactly how another serial killer doctor got caught.

  10. lefty e and just me

    Do not forget Abbott made his shirtfront comment due to earlier presser by Shorten. He could not let Shorten look “tougher” than him.

    Shorten may not be getting the press but he certainly got under Abbott’s skin yesterday.

  13. I wonder if Abbott’s ‘shirtfront’ comment happened when he temporarily forgot exactly what Peta told him to say.

    She probably told him to say that he would give Putin a good dressing down. Abbott’s brain would have interpreted “dressing down” as taking off your shirt, which you do when preparing to fight someone. From there “fight” made him think of “shirtfront” and the rest is history.

    Well, it’s probably as plausible as any other explanation for his bizarre statement.

  15. Abbott has declined to repeat the shirt front threat when egged on so to do by reporters today.

    Hmmmm… there has been no Russian request for a bilateral meeting while Mr Putin is in Australia, according to the Russian embassy.

    But, but, but… has there been an Australian request for a bilateral?

    I imagine that there has been some toil by Bishop and minions to try and stitch up some sort of meeting.

    But Putin would be on a hiding to nothing. What has Abbott got that Putin wants?

    ничего

    nichego

    I imagine that Putin’s minions would simply tell Abbott to go get fcuked.

    And if not in a formal bilateral…

    Would it be in a corridor…?

    Or would it be while the G20 leaders are lining up for the photo op? A bit of unedifying push and shove?

    Exactly when is Mr Abbott going to play shove ha’penny with Putin?

    Abbott must have his fingers crossed very, very hard that Putin stays at home.

    Really smart people know where something they start is going to finish.

    OTOH, smart arses just start stuff off and cross their fingers.

  20. [Abbott has declined to repeat the shirt front threat when egged on so to do by reporters today.]

    Which is why, apart from Jack The Insider’s column, “shirt-fronting” is peculiarly absent from Murdoch papers today.

    They definitely do not want Abbott being egged on by reporters to take the biff up to Vlad.

    There’s a simple rule (and corollary) with Murdoch newspapers that has always stood me in good stead:

    * If it’s there, Abbott wants it there.
    * If it ain’t, Abbott doesn’t want it there.

    That’s my Golden Rule with rupert’s shit sheets.

  21. Perhaps we could investigate whether Rupert has Pay TV options or ambitions in Russia? That’s probably what’s behind it.

  23. Those “other’ questions certainly show that the age of Aussie entitlement is not over even if the economy can no longer afford all the largesse. Poor Joe Hockey has been an abject failure on changing attitudes to Government handouts as he has been as a Treasurer.

    The cancer that John Howard introduced through his massive expansion of middle class welfare has far too many crying poor.

    It’s about time for AUstralians to HTTFU and stop looking to the Government to supplement their lifestyle. Welfare should be targetted at the needy, not the greedy.

    Looks to me like a rise in the GST with compensating income tax cuts is probably where the ecomomic politics will head leading up to the next election.

    The pollies will probably deny it. But, how else are we going to pay for our quality of life.

  25. Someone on the previous thread asked why the media didn’t pick up on Abbott’s:

    “Look, Ahh ..I’m going to shirtfront Mr Putin ..you bet you are ..you bet I am”

    Well, Channel Nine News certainly did pick up on his mistake ..they edited it out..

  27. Dio

    For what it is worth it seems that the boyfriend of the Nurse has symptoms of Ebola. Email sent out by the guy’s employer – a pharmaceutical company. Possibly (probably) just a bit of panic.

  30. I caught some of Joe Hockey talking on BBC’s Hard Talk show with journalist Stephen Sackur. Anyone who knows Sackur’s style knows he’s a take no prisoners style of interviewer. He’s relentless and unlike our lot here, he evidently comes well prepared to interviews.

    In the bits I heard Sackur was taking Joe Hockey apart . Whoever failed to tell Joe Hockey to avoid Sackur clearly wasn’t his friend.

  31. Fran

    I’ve seen a report that Joe had egg on face when he asserted wtte that Australia was not the highest per capita emitter because “we export energy”.

  32. [Recent research shows the current warm stretch is probably the planet’s warmest in at least 4,000 years. That means global temperatures may have already passed a level that human civilization has never experienced. The sheer size and depth of the world’s oceans means that most of global warming’s extra heat has been stored there. For the last decade or so, atmospheric warming has been playing catch up.]

    Wonder what Joe would say to this…

  33. Mike Baird has introduced stricter penalties for pollies acting against the law but they will not be retrospective.

    What a cop out!

  35. [Senator Penny Wong Verified account
    ‏@SenatorWong
    Robb says China’s coal tariff just a bump in the road. It’s a $9B export industry. Hell of a bump.]

  36. [22
    Fran Barlow

    Yet Abbott still fluffed the surrounding patter William]

    Having trouble delivering rehearsed scripted lines cannot be reassuring his parliamentary colleagues.

  37. My iMac with Safari currently prevents me from reaching the major Murdoch websites – the Oz, Telegraph, Herald Sun etc.

    A message appears saying ‘too many redirects’ and that’s that.

    I can read news.com.au, the provincial papers and their specialist websites. Other media companies and the ABC are unaffected.

    It doesn’t matter if I click directly on the Oz, DT etc URL or do a link from news.com.au or PB.

    Not that I’m complaining of course as I am spared a lot of Murdoch’s writings.

  38. [9
    Diogenes

    Just Me

    True, we don’t often kill people because they are annoying.]

    I guess “don’t often” is a laudable improvement on often. 😉

    [It’s always fascinating to see just how many patients these medical staff can kill before they get caught.]

    Fascinating. In a 4chan kind of way.

    Just highlights how much our systems rely on the goodwill of their human actors.

  40. [Absolutely. You want good medical care, then don’t treat the medical staff (and their support staff) like shit. There are a million little ways they can pay you back, just when you are at your most vulnerable and needy.

    Though killing the patients might be a little drastic a retribution.]

    Too right!

    I could tell you some stories that would make your head spin.

    And, it’s not always the case of the patient treating the nursing staff like shit that can put your life in danger.

    Sometimes, and I’ve seen it, retribution comes if the patients speaks up because the nurse is acting contrary to doctors orders.

  41. [The federal government has spent more than $300,000 market testing its counter-terrorism strategy.

    The Attorney-General’s department spent more than $201,000 on interviews, workshops and online surveys to assess the “effectiveness of key messages” and “barriers to messages” about supporting and participating in overseas conflicts.

    The research was conducted in the past financial year “to inform national approaches” to communications, a department spokesman told AAP on Tuesday.]

    https://au.news.yahoo.com/a/25254066/300k-spent-testing-govt-terror-message/

  42. [The NAB business survey shows that business confidence is now lower than it was when the election was held. This is a damning assessment from the business community that the “new management” in Canberra has failed to deliver the framework for growth, despite Mr Abbott’s claim that less red tape, no carbon and mining taxes would be good for business and the economy.]

    http://thekouk.com/blog/abbott-fails-on-the-open-for-business-bluster.html#.VDzQm2eSxZj

  43. Just Me

    [Just highlights how much our systems rely on the goodwill of their human actors.]

    Absolutely. We just don’t realise how much trust we place in people to be acting in good faith.

    Put on a suit, fake an ID and you could walk into a hospital and read any patients case notes and then examine them without being challenged.

  44. From last thread re speculation about Romney getting the nod again:

    The last time a former loser got a (major party) second shot at POTUS was Nixon in 68 (after losing in 60).
    The last former loser to get a second shot next time was Stephenson in 56 (and 52).
    The last GOP former loser to get a second shot next time was Dewey in 48 (and 44).
    These records aren’t predictive but it sure would be something if Romney got a second go.

  46. Diog

    I am just home from Hospital and I can support your assertion. Many times a Dr soandso appeared never to be seen again.

    The nurses are under immense pressure though, procedures keep changing, shifts get longer, handover periods shorter. Something has to break.

    The classic for me last week was putting a jehovah’s witness in the infusion ward.

  49. lizzie @42 – yeah, right. Absolutely nothing to do with the fall in commodity prices, the blocking of budget savings measures by the ALP, Treasury talking down the economy – none of that – only the LNP is responsible for EVEERYTHING.

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