Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Only minor changes on voting intention in Essential Research this week, but monthly personal ratings add to an impression of solid improvement for Tony Abbott.

No change on two-party preferred this week on Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average, with Labor remaining 52-48 ahead, but the Coalition has gained a point on the primary vote, to 41%, at the expense of the steady decline of Palmer United, down one to 3%. Labor and the Greens are steady on 39% and 10%. Essential also features its monthly personal ratings, adding to a picture of improvement for Tony Abbott who is up five on approval to 40% and down four on disapproval to 48%, while Bill Shorten is steady on both measures at 35% and 36%. Abbott has also opened up a fairly solid 38-32 lead as preferred prime minister after trailing 35-36 last time.

Other questions find an impressive 72-2 split on the question of whether the gap between the rich and poor has increased over the past decade, and a series of further questions address what respondents feel should be done about it. A question on mining finds no view to the effect that it has become more or less important to Australia since five years ago, but there is a very strong view that mining exports principally benefit company executives and shareholders. In dealing with budgetary problems, there is a 68-22 split in favour of higher corporate tax and 56-31 in favour of abandoning the parental leave scheme, but 67-21 against “cuts to tax concessions in areas like superannuation”, 69-21 against for higher income taxes and 81-12 against for cuts to social services, health and education.

Newspoll has had another week off, presumably so its return can be timed to coincide with the resumption of parliament next Tuesday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

708 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 15
1 2 3 15
  1. CC

    Right, then – if the Kouk is writing from a position of bias, you should be able to take his argument apart fairly easily.

    Go to it.

  2. It’s a fact of life that governments get blamed for more things than they can control but given his approach to this subject in opposition it’s impossible to feel any sympathy for Abbott.

  3. A senior nurse eager to get home and getting antsy with the patients tries to give, against doctors orders a strong antibiotic in 100mls instead of 250mls intravenously to run it through quicker.

    The nurses on ward had all been told this patient only had a couple of good veins remaining and this was the procedure adopted to protect them.

    She stuck a big sticker over the infusion so no one could see the solution was stronger. The patient started screaming with excruciating pain, it was burning the vein.

    Another nurse ran to the patient, seen what had been done. She removed the apparatus and filed an incident report. She was told to throw the evidence away.

  4. [lizzie @42 – yeah, right. Absolutely nothing to do with the fall in commodity prices, the blocking of budget savings measures by the ALP, Treasury talking down the economy – none of that – only the LNP is responsible for EVEERYTHING.]

    What happened to no excuses? Those excuses are laughable. No one has talked down the Australian economy more than our idiot PM and idiot treasurer. labor not supporting said idiot treasurers dreadfully unfair and stupid budget would be helping the economy.

    The LNP is responsible for the federal budget and economy. If they can do basic negotiation to run the easiest parliament in 7 years they should perhaps give up.

  5. Dee

    [Another nurse ran to the patient, seen what had been done. She removed the apparatus and filed an incident report. She was told to throw the evidence away.]

    So, how far could she throw the patient?

  6. As for service providers punishing the annoying customers I think the opposite is more often than not true. While the service providers may want to kill the annoyance and reward the good polite non troublesome clients – it is much easer to look after the bad guys to minimize the pain they cause and just ignore the ‘good’ patients.

    As someone routinely screwed over by service providers for the sin of being polite and not complaining enough I think a few dead annoying patients is a good start. A few dead service providers would be good to go on with … I have a list if someone .. Nevermind

  7. BW

    😆

    It’s really not a laughing matter, you norty man.

    The nurse who did the right thing found herself on the outer and ended up on stress leave.

  8. zoomster @52 – Kouk gave no reasoning – no argument as to why things are – a crappy piece that doesn’t argue why things are the way they are or what should be done about it – it was merely a partisan attempt to paint the Federal LNP in a bad light. I’ve already stated some of the causes of the issues.

    For example – he compared US stock market performance to Australian – but didn’t explain why they should be linked, why it is an apples with apples comparison or why only that period was a relevant comparison.

    Who would have thought an ex-ALP Adviser would produce such a piece? – next Dog bites man.

    And what would Bill Shorten have done to make things better? Put up the CO2 Tax rate?

  9. [59
    Compact Crank]

    The LNP are useless whingers. We need look no further than WA state finances to see how incompetent they really are.

  10. Unemployment is up, confidence is down & the benchmark of our economy “commodities” are about to take it well & truly up the date.

    I think the Kouk has a point.

  11. “Gee that ALP government really was dealt a tough hand with that GFC, we probably should cut them a bit of slack with how they responded.”

    Yes I remember all of the comments along those lines.

  12. [59
    Compact Crank]

    Real per capita disposable incomes have been falling for some time, during the previous Government as well as the current one. The last Government had a reasonable plan to adapt to this and re-boot income growth. The current mob have no clue whatsoever. The LNP response to falling incomes is…to reduce incomes even further and faster. The LNP response to declining revenues is…to perpetuate tax breaks. The LNP response to declining labour demand is…to attack those who lose their jobs.

    The LNP fibbed their way into office. Now they have to walk the walk. They will inevitably fail.

  13. How low will Bill Shorten’s ratings need to drop before the Caucus ignores the member vote and dumps him for a real leader?

  14. 65
    Compact Crank

    The first thing I would do is change the Government; then I would scrap Royalties for Regions; then I would cancel those capital programs that will not pay for themselves.

  15. It’s a bit sad when your PM does something stupid and which invites comedians and the Russians to poke fun:

    [One of Russia’s top ranking diplomats has poked fun at the Prime Minister’s suggestion he will “shirtfront” Vladimir Putin when the Russian president visits Brisbane next month.

    Tony Abbott today refused to repeat the comment, but insisted he was expecting to have a “very robust” conversation with the president about the MH17 disaster during the G20 summit.

    Russian second secretary to Australia Alexander Odoevskiy said there had been no request for a bilateral meeting between the leaders, and Moscow was not expecting a physical confrontation.

    “We are aware at this point that there has not been a request for a bilateral meeting either from Moscow or from Canberra, so we are not sure where exactly and when the Australian Prime Minister would like to shirtfront president Putin,” he said.

    “This is obviously quite unusual for the diplomatic practice to go this personal and, we may say, this physical.

    ]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-14/abbotts-shirtfront-threat-unusual-russian-diplomat-says/5813096

  16. [Kouk gave no reasoning]

    You obviously had some trouble redwing the article. All Kouk did was judge the economy against the repeated promises of Abbott that it would magically all get better the second he was elected.

    It hasn’t.

    Abbott and Hockey should be called out for their stupid claim the same way swan was called out for his stupid claim that he’d have a surplus even in an economy that demanded a deficit.

    Least swan tried to deliver and did a pretty good job all things considered. Not something you could say about the current clowns – who aren’t even trying except to the extent they have deliberately made the economy worse because they think they can blame labor.

    Worst economic team Australia has ever had – worse even than Fraser / Howard and who would have thought that was possible.

  17. I suspect that many of the Libs really did believe that business conditions would improve simply through them being in government without having to actually do anything else.

  18. So the regions don’t need the infrastructure spending in WA?

    Strange how the Federal ALP promised a whole heap of Regional WA based infrastrucutre spending as part of the Minign Tax bounty – oops.

  19. [briefly – so what would you do in WA? Where would you cut spending?]

    Spending in wa has been cut to the bone and you are now shaving the bone. Only an idiot would cut expenditure here. Clearly more revenue is needed.

  20. [Crank…Treasury talking down the economy]

    That is absurd. The down-talkers have been Hockey and Abbott. The whole debt and deficit line is a fabrication for which they are entirely responsible.

  21. Briefly – clearly Mark McGowan disagrees with you:

    [Opposition Leader Mark McGowan says regional WA is being cheated out of $3 billion over the next four years.

    “Clearly the Nationals and the Liberals have let down the bush,” he said.

    “The bush was promised 25 per cent of royalties and that promise has been broken.”]

  22. [Strange how the Federal ALP promised a whole heap of Regional WA based infrastrucutre spending as part of the Minign Tax bounty – oops.]

    There is no doubt some needed infrastructure. Royalties for regions is the worst kind of inefficient govt pork barreling. Embarrassing.

  23. [73
    Compact Crank]

    Under the LNP real disposable incomes are falling, the deficit is growing (pushing 3% of GDP) as revenue continues to lag outlays, investment and household consumption are stagnating. Yet there is no plan to deal with these forces that is remotely likely to work. Why is that? Because the LNP do not understand the economy. They have fallen for their own propaganda.

  24. WWP @75 – yes – that’s right because taxes increase economic activity – apparently.

    You’ll win a Nobel Prize in economics when you prove that one.

  25. 78
    Compact Crank

    His point is well-made. The Libs made promises they could not keep – to the bush as well as to urban voters. They fibbed their way into office.

  26. [About 50 mainly Catholic Vietnamese asylum seekers will soon be released into the WA community, as last year’s extraordinary spike in boat arrivals from Vietnam is processed.

    The ABC understood the asylum seekers were being released from Northam’s Yongah Hill detention centre this week on bridging visas while they awaited the outcome of applications for permanent residency visas.]

  27. [WWP @75 – yes – that’s right because taxes increase economic activity – apparently.
    You’ll win a Nobel Prize in economics when you prove that one.]

    Higher taxes increase revenue the effect on the economy is more complex but not so complex that we haven’t noticed tax cuts, particularly company and capital taxes, consistently failing to deliver the boost to the economy promised.

  28. briefly – @83 – the LNP understands economics far better than the ALP. Australian politics doesn’t allow for what is truely required – massive cuts to the welfare sector. Deregulation of the education sector and cuts to government spending in the sector. More reform of the Health system including public and private funing and insurances, Deregulation of planning and development laws. Deregulation of the labour market. Tax cuts and reforms to lower both company and personal tax rates. Getting rid of the Senate, the States and Local Governemnt and moving to a two tier system with Regional Governments.

  29. Abbott’s cunning stunt
    _________________
    I understand the Agenda for the G20 has no place for bi-leteral meetings between leaders
    All days are taken up in sessions open to all…any meetings would have to be over the dinner table…and Putin is under no obligation to speak to Abbott enyway
    so all this is posturing again

  30. In fact compact crank hasn’t Norway demonstrated very clearly that you can tax your way to both a great economy and great prosperity.

    Lot smarter than Australia giving away our resources to foreign multinationals and coming out of a resources boom so poor our kids will have to pay $100k for a university degree that cost many nothing at all before our many years of continuous economic growth.

  31. Re CC @91: I disagree with most of what you recommend but it’s good to see a Liberal poster setting out what they believe in rather than just repeating Murdoch / talkback memes. What you have set out is probably what Joe Hockey and his colleauges believe but would never say so, least of all in an election campaign.

  32. Re CC @95: Abbott should have his ‘robust conversations’ with Vladimir Putin but using the language of some aggressive drunken yobbo is not helpful to the families of the MH17 victims or to anyone else.

Comments Page 2 of 15
1 2 3 15

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *