Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Only minor changes on voting intention in Essential Research this week, but monthly personal ratings add to an impression of solid improvement for Tony Abbott.

No change on two-party preferred this week on Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average, with Labor remaining 52-48 ahead, but the Coalition has gained a point on the primary vote, to 41%, at the expense of the steady decline of Palmer United, down one to 3%. Labor and the Greens are steady on 39% and 10%. Essential also features its monthly personal ratings, adding to a picture of improvement for Tony Abbott who is up five on approval to 40% and down four on disapproval to 48%, while Bill Shorten is steady on both measures at 35% and 36%. Abbott has also opened up a fairly solid 38-32 lead as preferred prime minister after trailing 35-36 last time.

Other questions find an impressive 72-2 split on the question of whether the gap between the rich and poor has increased over the past decade, and a series of further questions address what respondents feel should be done about it. A question on mining finds no view to the effect that it has become more or less important to Australia since five years ago, but there is a very strong view that mining exports principally benefit company executives and shareholders. In dealing with budgetary problems, there is a 68-22 split in favour of higher corporate tax and 56-31 in favour of abandoning the parental leave scheme, but 67-21 against “cuts to tax concessions in areas like superannuation”, 69-21 against for higher income taxes and 81-12 against for cuts to social services, health and education.

Newspoll has had another week off, presumably so its return can be timed to coincide with the resumption of parliament next Tuesday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

708 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. WWP @93 – Norway is fundamentally different to Australia – the Australian Federal Government does not own the resources. It’s like saying I should be rich because my Sister is a multimillionare.

    Norway couldn’t be so high taxing if they didn’t have the oil resources to prop up the economy with.

  2. [Funny how Lefties think Abbott should be nice to Putin.]

    I think you are confusing competent and dignified leader which us centralists do want with ‘nice’. Given Abbott will not be either I’m not sure why you’d try to shift the debate.

  3. [mikehilliard
    Posted Tuesday, October 14, 2014 at 7:36 pm | PERMALINK
    More shirtfront if you need it.

    http://edition.cnn.com/2014/10/14/world/asia/australia-russia-abbott-putin-shirt-front/index.html ]

    Even if some of the Australian media are ignoring shirtfront, it will go viral across the globe because of the macho posturing of Abbott against Putin and Putin’s own macho reputation.

    This CNN article (predictably) has photos of shirtless Abbott and shirtless Putin, positioned so they appear to be facing off.

  4. CC

    Australian Federal Government does not own the resources

    The Australian Federal government may not own the resources but every thing below the topsoil is Crown Land for which ROYALTIES are paid upon extraction

    I think an ABC fact check should call bullshit on that claim

  5. [WWP @93 – Norway is fundamentally different to Australia – the Australian Federal Government does not own the resources. It’s like saying I should be rich because my Sister is a multimillionare.
    ]

    Your point would be less laughable if the states were mega rich and the commonwealth poor.

    The real difference is that Norway pursued intelligent and successful economic strategies while we did not. That would be the same right wing strategies that failed in the US as well and that would be the economic strategies you are advocating.

    Ignoring the excuse of an imperfect federation we are exactly the same as Norway the difference being they got value for their natural resources and largely we do not. Why are we that dumb?

  6. [Steve777 – Putin is lucky Abbott hasn’t threatened to deck him next time he sees him.]

    You mean Abbott is lucky – he is physically and mentally way out of his league.

  7. billie @106 – the Australian Constitution and High Court disagree with your intepretation – it doesn’t take a $10 million ABC Fact Check waste of money to understand that.

  8. [The Kremlin has issued no official response to the remarks, but Alexander Odoevskiy, second secretary and spokesman at Russia’s embassy in Canberra, told CNN the comments were “immature,” “offensive” and “insulting.”
    “Some say it’s tough talk. We say it’s immature talk,” he said. “Definitely, it’s personal and insulting. It’s not the usual way one leader can communicate with another leader.”]

    Whatever your opinion of Putin, this is spot on.

  9. [illie @106 – the Australian Constitution and High Court disagree with your intepretation – it doesn’t take a $10 million ABC Fact Check waste of money to understand that.]

    So you are suggesting we are coming out of decades of continuous economic growth poorer than we were going in, because the constitution held us back? Seriously that is the case you are making? You could get a job with hockey that is the kind of dumb thing he likes to say

  10. WWP @107 – Australia is a Federation of States with relations between the States and the Federal Government formalised by the Constitution. You may wish to igmore that but it is the fundamental situation.

  11. CC

    If I am wrong then why can miners walk onto farms to explore. Why can’t farmers stop Origin extracting Coal Seam Gas under their land?

  12. So the conservative response to Oz dropping downh the gurgler is ask………..”So what would Labor do different?” and cut – everything…….a kind of, “We had to kill the patient first, before he/she could get better.”

    What a classic! Straight out of economics speak about 1930.

    I admire your front in coming back again CC – at least you are a minority of one of the horde who used to come here and still come up for stick when your side is about to take us back, not to 1921, but 1821.

  13. ru

    [I am just home from Hospital and I can support your assertion. Many times a Dr soandso appeared never to be seen again.

    The nurses are under immense pressure though, procedures keep changing, shifts get longer, handover periods shorter. Something has to break.]

    Unfortunately it’s breaking all the time. Lots of patients die or get less than optimal care. But the system is still asked to do more with less and it can’t do it.

  14. [WWP @107 – Australia is a Federation of States with relations between the States and the Federal Government formalised by the Constitution. You may wish to igmore that but it is the fundamental situation.]

    I’m quite familiar with the constitution I just don’t see anyone who finished primary school blaming the constitution for our economic mistakes as a federation. The most it could do is shift the blame between levels of government.

    Which is irrelevant because I wasn’t blaming a particular level of govt in the first place – I was blaming right wing economic policies that have failed us here and trying to learn from another country that managed to get rich from their resources the same time we got poorer from ours.

  15. [Funny how Lefties think Abbott should be nice to Putin.]

    I couldn’t give a damn about Putin but I would like to think Australia could exercise influence in diplomatic circles. Sounding like a schoolyard tough guy is not a way to win influence.

  16. 2GB making its contribution to hate stuff: giving out the t-shirts Woolies dropped.

    It would be nice to think that when the hate that goes round comes round, it actually comes round to the people who are profiting most from hate mongering.

    But that is, IMHO, unlikely.

  17. Stock market tanking, business confidence tanking, consumer confidence tanking, unemployment climbing, real wages falling, real cost of living climbing, manufacturing disappearing, drought over much of the rangelands, record heat for Australia compounding the viciousness of the drought, house lending starting to look a bit rocky, renewable investment crashing, the dollar heading south and internationally scorned for having an effwit government headed by an effwit.

    It is just as well that Abbott and Hockey are incompetent wreckers.

    Imagine what they would do if they were good at wrecking the joint.

  18. Crank advocates:

    [Deregulation of planning and development laws.]

    I’m probably cherry picking a bit here but these sort of off-the-cuff statements are more than idiotic.

    I doubt Crank has even the vaguest idea about what planning laws govern development and what their intended aims are.

    In general they attempt to put in place conditions that require developments to meet certain criteria so that the environment (both built and natural) are protected.

    By in large most individuals and business’s undertaking development will find these laws are in some way a challenge to comply with, but that is the intent.

    Without singling out those laws that are verging on the ridiculous, the majority should be seen as fair and reasonable.

    The greatest advocates to dismantling our planning and development regulations are those that fail to have the required imagination to produce a “product” within the framework of the laws and/or are not prepared to pay for the professional advice/input that can achieve this.

    There is also the additional cost of compliance in terms of energy efficiency, waste management & preservation of the natural environment that most greedy developers would love to see axed.

    In short we have enough nasty development in this country, less regulation will only add more.

  19. Dio:

    [But the system is still asked to do more with less and it can’t do it.]

    I admit in the past I’ve hidden my private health cover for a surgical procedure I knew would result in major out of pocket expenses by not ticking the PHI box on the hospital admissions form. I’m not sorry cause I know from a colleague’s mother who had the same procedure but as a private patient, I got superior in and out patient care. Even now, some years later I’ve bounced back to full health, while the mother is suffering secondary complaints simply because her discharge care instructions were inadequate.

    Later I wondered how many other patients do this, and later still I wondered whether checks and balances could be instituted to ensure that patients with PHI are not admitted as public patients, or whether this would send us straight to the US route of health care. But surely given we have PHI in Australia, and that people willingly choose to have it and pay for it, we should be preventing those patients from accessing health care as a public patient???

  20. [Getting rid of the Senate, the States and Local Governemnt and moving to a two tier system with Regional Governments.]

    Funnily enough, getting rid of the Senate and the States were ALP policies for a good deal of the 20th century.

  21. I must say the excuses offered by CC for the Liberal party’s raid on the treasury and general economic vandalism are quite imaginative.

  22. Great news!! El Classico will continue!!

    [The Catalan government is calling off a referendum on independence from Spain planned for 9 November amid fierce opposition from Madrid.]

  23. [I couldn’t give a damn about Putin but I would like to think Australia could exercise influence in diplomatic circles. ]

    Having seen the follow through of today’s events after the remarks, I’m convinced more than ever that Abbott was using the shirtfront comment deliberately to move everyone away from his earlier blokesville stance of refusing Putin’s attendance at the G20.

    Aside from anything else, Putin must be somewhat amused wondering when Russia became a touchstone for Australia’s PM to speak to a domestic audience. I mean usually the go-to countries for that are China, or closer regional neighbours like Indonesia or Malaysia.

  24. fess

    [Later I wondered how many other patients do this, and later still I wondered whether checks and balances could be instituted to ensure that patients with PHI are not admitted as public patients]

    It’s illegal for public hospitals to stop any patient from exercising their wish to be admitted as a public patient.

    I’ve seen an estimate that 5% of the public hospital budget goes to treating private patients who were admitted as public patients.

  25. [Crank advocates:
    Deregulation of planning and development laws.
    ]

    It is hilarious I once heard a liberal leader in WA – Burnie I think – advocate better planned and implemented communities and less planning in the same sentence. I got a very stern look from my colleagues (all libs) when I laughed out loud.

  26. Pretty bad when a guy who had something to do with shooting down a plane starts to look reasonable because the other guy seems to think punching stuff is a solution.

  27. [Having seen the follow through of today’s events after the remarks, I’m convinced more than ever that Abbott was using the shirtfront comment deliberately to move everyone away from his earlier blokesville stance of refusing Putin’s attendance at the G20.]

    Absolutely, it was an attempt to talk tough to compensate for the fact that he was actually backing down from his previous stance.

  28. Oh and crank your hilarious attempts to distinguish our failures from the Norway success clearly didn’t take into account the PRRT – amazing how the states and commonwealth worked together to an outcome. Lol

  29. The Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank ,a man called Debella,says we may soon see a “volent fall and re adjustment in the market” as a cumulative stream of all the variuus negative trends operating now… come together

    so watch for that fall,

  30. confessions: It’s perfectly allowed to go in as a public patient even if you have private health insurance – no subterfuge is required.

  31. [
    I’ve seen an estimate that 5% of the public hospital budget goes to treating private patients who were admitted as public patients.
    ]
    Once upon a time; in most cases; it was a transfer of funds from the state to federal treasury. Hockey is putting an end to that; with the sale of medibank privite it will be a transfer of gold from state to private hands.

    As the Liberal’s goal is the reading of the treasury; by mates; this in the Liberal parties view is a very satisfactory outcome.

  32. billie:

    [The Australian Federal government may not own the resources but every thing below the topsoil is Crown Land for which ROYALTIES are paid upon extraction]

    That’s true but for land within the states I believe it is the “Crown in right of ” rather than “Crown in right of the Commonwealth”, so that’s why it’s the states that levy royalties.

    That doesn’t apply to land within the territories or offshore resources – the royalties from those go to the Federal Government.

  33. [It’s perfectly allowed to go in as a public patient even if you have private health insurance]

    Yes, I understand that – as I said, I’ve done it myself with no blowback from the govt or my insurer.

    I guess I’m wondering aloud whether this is something that could be looked at in the context of cost containment, esp given our ageing population and the future expected demand for health care. I don’t know how it could work in practice without us descending down the American model. I’m just relaying the thoughts I’ve had.

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