Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Only minor changes on voting intention in Essential Research this week, but monthly personal ratings add to an impression of solid improvement for Tony Abbott.

No change on two-party preferred this week on Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average, with Labor remaining 52-48 ahead, but the Coalition has gained a point on the primary vote, to 41%, at the expense of the steady decline of Palmer United, down one to 3%. Labor and the Greens are steady on 39% and 10%. Essential also features its monthly personal ratings, adding to a picture of improvement for Tony Abbott who is up five on approval to 40% and down four on disapproval to 48%, while Bill Shorten is steady on both measures at 35% and 36%. Abbott has also opened up a fairly solid 38-32 lead as preferred prime minister after trailing 35-36 last time.

Other questions find an impressive 72-2 split on the question of whether the gap between the rich and poor has increased over the past decade, and a series of further questions address what respondents feel should be done about it. A question on mining finds no view to the effect that it has become more or less important to Australia since five years ago, but there is a very strong view that mining exports principally benefit company executives and shareholders. In dealing with budgetary problems, there is a 68-22 split in favour of higher corporate tax and 56-31 in favour of abandoning the parental leave scheme, but 67-21 against “cuts to tax concessions in areas like superannuation”, 69-21 against for higher income taxes and 81-12 against for cuts to social services, health and education.

Newspoll has had another week off, presumably so its return can be timed to coincide with the resumption of parliament next Tuesday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

708 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. Gay Alcorn @Gay_Alcorn
    Follow
    My piece on the v interesting issue of CSG in the Victorian election. http://gu.com/p/42eg3/tw via @guardian #springst.
    7:26 PM – 15 Oct 2014
    Victorian election: Greens aim to capitalise on coal seam gas doubts
    Victorian Liberals launch mining licence locator, but anti-fracking activists say both major parties are avoiding the real issue

    The Guardian @guardian
    8 RETWEETS 3 FAVORITES ReplyRetweetFavorite

  6. [ guytaur
    Posted Thursday, October 16, 2014 at 7:49 am | Permalink

    Oh Dear! Does not sound good

    @DailyMail: Nurses caring for Ebola patient Thomas Eric Duncan didn’t wear hazmat suits for two days http://t.co/VCWZlLm4ji ]

    ….one passenger at Dulles International Airport outside Washington, D.C. is apparently not taking any chances.

    [ A female passenger dressed in a hazmat suit – complete with a full body gown, mask and gloves – was spotted Wednesday waiting for a flight at the airport. ]

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-15/it-begins-hazmat-wearing-passenger-spotted-airport

  8. zoomster

    I was “shocked” that they had until now neglected to give it a macho manmaly name. No wonder it was achieving feck all 🙂

  9. “@olliemilman: Victorian govt minister Matthew Guy says there is no evidence porn swapping has happened. And that no laws have been broken anyway”

  11. I thought this revision had already happened several years ago.

    [Australia’s lax labelling laws for seafood mean restaurants and retailers can withhold information on the origins and species of popular seafood, depriving consumers of the ability to make informed choices.

    On Thursday, Greenpeace and the Australian Marine Conservation Society launched the Label My Fish campaign, demanding Australian laws match the European Union standards that require the origin, species and method used to catch or farm be declared on seafood labels.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/call-to-overhaul-fishy-seafood-labelling-20141015-11647g.html#ixzz3GFmZxsDf

  15. @ClayLucas: Moonee Valley third council to launch legal action against East West Link – http://t.co/eMFemUwZln via @theage

    Its piling up for Napthine. Its going to be hard to get on the front foot when your number one policy initiative is mired in unpopularity

  16. Jesus what on earth is happening in Victoria? Porn rings, the premier tearing his ministers new ones, policy stumbles. And all on the eve of an election!

  17. Can anyone else see the logical inconsistency, or is it just my prejudice against Hunt?

    [Hunt admitted the Great Barrier Reef was under pressure but said he was proud that a plan to dump dredged spoil into the reef’s marine park had now been averted, after he initially approved it late last year. “If I achieve nothing else, I will be satisfied with that,” he said.

    . . .

    But Abrahams said the government needed to do more to protect the habitat of threatened species, saying the recent approval of the huge Carmichael mine in Queensland would imperil the home of the endangered black-throated finch.

    “The minister talks about the mine as if it’s a barren landscape but he won’t acknowledge it’s the home of a threatened species,” he said. “If he can’t use his power to protect threatened species, who can?

    “I don’t see the government doing what’s required to deliver. The cat baiting is great, but species will continue to decline if the government allows their habitat to be destroyed and dollars aren’t provided to implement the threatened species plans.”]

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/16/australia-pledges-to-halt-loss-of-native-mammal-species-by-2020?CMP=twt_gu

  24. “@political_alert: Deputy Opposition Leader Tanya Plibersek will hold a press conference in Melbourne at 9.45am to discuss the Ebola crisis #auspol”

  26. ISIS being pushed back in Kobane.

    The real heroes are the Kurdish defenders of Kobane, but the side story is very interesting: the US and Turkey have clearly fallen out. An independent Kurdistan in Iraq/ Syria may not be out of reach – and as far as I can see is the only objective worth supporting in this whole mess.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/kurds-claim-to-have-turned-tide-against-islamic-state-in-kobane/2014/10/15/af9b5726-547f-11e4-809b-8cc0a295c773_story.html

  27. lizzie

    Re Hunt and the mine waste . A bit like a hit man after deciding not to go ahead with a contract thinking they deserve a medal and an humanitarian award for saving lives.

  29. GG

    Faine spoke to this woman. Apparently the attacks have continued, and the police have said they can do nothing

    [A BRIAR HILL mother fled from home with her young family following a racially motivated attack on Wednesday.

    Deepa Balakrishnan has called for a community conversation about race, religion and greater tolerance following the ordeal which has left her shaken.]

  32. It seems pretty clear, doe it not, that there are limits to “Stepping up to the plate” and “doing our share” for the world, especially when it comes to ebola and Climate Change.

    While we bash on Defence Ministry doors in Iraq, just itching to get into a fight, so the Daily Telegraph can trumpet “boots on the ground”, thousands are dying in Africa, and it seems there’s a chance the deadly disease could come our way if only a couple of things go wrong (as it appears is happening in Texas).

    Meanwhile, we were “doing our bit” on Climate Change, and it had started working, but now we’ve gone back to the basic Abbott position of saying “F*ck Youse” to the world.

    Everyone from Prime Ministers to shock jocks is threatening to deck people, the media are making light of it (beats working I guess), and serious forums like the G20 suffer as a result.

    The voters gave Abbott and Murdoch a laboratory where they could experiment with the thousand different ways to stuff up a country. Abbott did enough damage in the seminary, and at Sydney University. Now there’s a whole nation he can mold into his own image: petty, vindictive, immature, petulant and based on schoolbpy techniques of intimidation and excess of testosterone. Murdoch cheers him on, hoping there’s a quid in it somewhere for him and his fast-fading legacy businesses and their antiquated technology.

    It was all predictable, and was in fact predicted, but we denizens of Godzone decided to just let her rip. There was no “crisis” before, so we could afford to indulge our infantile fantasies of putting women in their place, ignoring our duties to the rest of the world and so on… in general living life as if it was a cheap Reality TV show.

    But now that it looks like the shit is hitting the fan for real, we’re still playing around.

    If only Ray Hadley, or the Tele or a Newspoll could solves the world’s problems, they’d be solved in an instant by the bogan supporters of Abbott. If the world was a Reality TV show we could just switch it off and forget about it. But it ain’t that easy, unfortunately.

  33. vic,

    I’m just a bit sceptical of her claims. The fact that no one has been identified or actually been seen apart from the claimant is interesting.

    I don’t think the local larries are organised enough for systematic harrassment.

    I’m looking out across the hill to Briar hill from Chateau Growler. It’s all rather close.

  36. Re Zoomster @550: I’ve often thought the same. For the most part, especially in the lead up to last year’s election, right wing posters here mostly repeat Liberal talking points – Craig Thomson, Carbon Tax disaster, Bad Unions / Pink Batts etc. Compact Crank the other night actually set out in about a dozen lines what he believed in, although he didn’t go on to argue his case (or at least not while I was on PB).

    Of course, even the Government doesn’t try to justify its positions. Instead it tries to tie unpopular measures to a concocted budget emergency. For example, the Liberals probably want to wind back welfare, minimum wages and workers’ bargaining power, to make way for low paid jobs. This would they believe, reduce unemployment. But no one actually says that. Likewise, they believe that the education ‘reforms’ are a trade off between affordability / availability of tertiary education and some concept of excellence that would increase the national good. But no one argues it.

    Direct Action seems to have conceived to bring across voters concerned about climate change that they can vote conservative with a clear conscience, while not actually adversely impacting the fossil fuel industry and their other big backers. It was not designed to actually address climate change, which most of the cabinet doesn’t think is a problem. Of course they can’t actually say that. Most Liberal posters here seem to think that ‘Direct Action’ is a crock.

    The PPL scheme, if it were a Labor plan, would be roundly condemned by the Liberals, Murdoch and business in similar terms to the mining tax and ‘carbon tax’, i.e. sending the country broke and killing employment. It seems to be an Abbott brainfart to address his ‘woman problems’. I can’t see how this fits any Liberal principles. Maybe, as someone in Q&A the other day inferred, its purpose is eugenic.

  37. S777

    [Compact Crank the other night actually set out in about a dozen lines what he believed in, although he didn’t go on to argue his case]

    All slightly altered lines from the standard IPAs 75 dot points for the LNP.

  38. I was “shocked” that they had until now neglected to give it a macho manmaly name. No wonder it was achieving feck all 🙂

    Should Abbott actually get around to sending support for Ukraine the name chooses itself: Operation Shirtfront

  39. GG

    No cos subsequent to that article, there have been several further incidents including a threatening letter left in her letter box yesterday

  43. GG

    That is why she went on the Jon Faine program. Her home has been egged, bottles thrown etc. every time she informs the police, they say nothing can be done

  44. The behaviour of the Texan authorities and health services makes me really worried about the capacity of the US to contain Ebola.

    I have never seen such a series of obvious mistakes, compounded by additional obvious mistakes.

    First we have a guy from Liberia traveling in with no extra checks. OK this is acceptable just because the epidemic was not at crisis point

    Second we have the guy sent home despite a temperature of 103 degrees. This in itself was probably illegal. (Some US laws make it illegal to send home sick patients if uninsured). Fail

    Third: Now the treating staff should have been able to tell from his accent that was from Africa and pressed the alert buttons. Here in Australia there have been several false alarms but better a false alarm that stupidity such as in Texas. Fail

    Fourth: The CDC was apparently called in by Duncan’s NEPHEW not the hospital. If this is the case the guy deserves a bloody medal. May have saved hundreds of lives.

    Fifth: the CDC was appallingly slow to send in specialist teams to manage the situation, blithely assuming that the the Texan Presbyterian could cope. They admit this now but it should have been obvious from day 1.

    Sixth: although probably no harm has come of it the Texan authorities were derelict in the way they handled the family and the clean up of the house of patient zero. Nigeria did much much better.

    Sixth: The sloppy behaviour of Teaxa Presbyterian is criminal. It would seem that the nurses had no proper equipment or training. Other allegations involve infectious waste piling up to the ceiling.

    Seven: It seems that some 70 staff managed Duncan’s case. Sorry but this is just appalling. No one trained even in basic care of a patient with a would infection or golden staff would ever approve that sort of a roster. 70 staff caring for an ebola patient!!!!!. Merciful heavens. N

  45. GG

    I should add that she has lived in the ppty for 8 years and has never had an ounce of trouble until now. She also said that her neighbours were wonderful and supportive.

  46. vic,

    So did the neighbours complain or not?

    If not, then all the complaints are coming from this one person.

    Now, she may be the target of a racial attack. However, none of what she has said is being verified independantly atm.

  47. The behaviour of the Texan authorities and health services makes me really worried about the capacity of the US to contain Ebola.

    I have never seen such a series of obvious mistakes, compounded by additional obvious mistakes.

    First we have a guy from Liberia traveling in with no extra checks. OK this is acceptable just because the epidemic was not at crisis point

    Second we have the guy sent home despite a temperature of 103 degrees. This in itself was probably illegal. (Some US laws make it illegal to send home sick patients if uninsured). Fail

    Third: Now the treating staff should have been able to tell from his accent that was from Africa and pressed the alert buttons. Here in Australia there have been several false alarms but better a false alarm that stupidity such as in Texas. Fail

    Fourth: The CDC was apparently called in by Duncan’s NEPHEW not the hospital. If this is the case the guy deserves a bloody medal. May have saved hundreds of lives.

    Fifth: the CDC was appallingly slow to send in specialist teams to manage the situation, blithely assuming that the the Texan Presbyterian could cope. They admit this now but it should have been obvious from day 1.

    Sixth: although probably no harm has come of it the Texan authorities were derelict in the way they handled the family and the clean up of the house of patient zero. Nigeria did much much better.

    Sixth: The sloppy behaviour of Teaxa Presbyterian is criminal. It would seem that the nurses had no proper equipment or training. Other allegations involve infectious waste piling up to the ceiling.

    Seven: It seems that some 70 staff managed Duncan’s case. Sorry but this is just appalling. No one trained even in basic care of a patient with a would infection or golden staff would ever approve that sort of a roster. 70 staff caring for an ebola patient!!!!!. Merciful heavens. Now given he needed intensive care I can see no reason for more than 6-10 nurses (assuming 8 hr shifts)to have been needed and perhaps 5-10 different doctors. ideally of course you would have has had just 2 doctors in close contact (others consulted remotely) and perhaps switched to 6 nurses on 8 hr shifts.

    Eight: Finally and UNBELIEVABLY the newly infected nurse was allowed to catch an airline flight. This was AFTER it was known Nina was infected. Un Bloody Believable.

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