Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Only minor changes on voting intention in Essential Research this week, but monthly personal ratings add to an impression of solid improvement for Tony Abbott.

No change on two-party preferred this week on Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average, with Labor remaining 52-48 ahead, but the Coalition has gained a point on the primary vote, to 41%, at the expense of the steady decline of Palmer United, down one to 3%. Labor and the Greens are steady on 39% and 10%. Essential also features its monthly personal ratings, adding to a picture of improvement for Tony Abbott who is up five on approval to 40% and down four on disapproval to 48%, while Bill Shorten is steady on both measures at 35% and 36%. Abbott has also opened up a fairly solid 38-32 lead as preferred prime minister after trailing 35-36 last time.

Other questions find an impressive 72-2 split on the question of whether the gap between the rich and poor has increased over the past decade, and a series of further questions address what respondents feel should be done about it. A question on mining finds no view to the effect that it has become more or less important to Australia since five years ago, but there is a very strong view that mining exports principally benefit company executives and shareholders. In dealing with budgetary problems, there is a 68-22 split in favour of higher corporate tax and 56-31 in favour of abandoning the parental leave scheme, but 67-21 against “cuts to tax concessions in areas like superannuation”, 69-21 against for higher income taxes and 81-12 against for cuts to social services, health and education.

Newspoll has had another week off, presumably so its return can be timed to coincide with the resumption of parliament next Tuesday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

708 thoughts on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  3. Gillard having the worst polling statistics of any PM across a 40 year period.

    Well apart from that last poll for John Howard run by the AEC? How far back have you got to go to find another PM that lost their seat?? 🙂

  4. I heard an ABC presenter say today that she felf sorry for Africans because of the devastation caused by Ebola
    This made me think:
    Total population of Africa = 1,100,000,000
    Number infected with Ebola < 10,000
    Or less than 1:1,000,000
    This is still a very limited and localised epidemic which should be controllable with quarantine but we have a disproportionate media response not helped by today's WHO ennouncement. This is apparently the greatest threat to world health since the swine flu panic of 2008.

  6. #503 Your talking about 1 poll? You must have missed the part about ‘across a 40 year period’, this means an overall statistical analysis of all PM’s during the period they were PM, I thought that bit was clear.

    #501 So you don’t understand the concept of a debate?

  8. #505 Not that I didn’t mention it is not worth debating on this page already from a right position… sorry, but that is as sharp as a butter knife.

  9. *wonders how many times I have to hear it before the person saying it realises his humor has no logical tie to anything that has been said…*

  16. He begged the Chinese, the Japoanese, the Koreans, the British, the Ukranians and now he’s begging the Iraqis…

    Prime Minister Tony Abbott has admitted the legal agreement needed to deploy Australian special forces in Iraq is taking “a little longer than we would have liked” but insists it will be finished within days.

    Speaking in Melbourne, Mr Abbott pointedly said he had indicated some time ago to Iraqi leader Haider al-Abadi that Australian commandos were ready to help the nation’s beleaguered military in its fight against the Islamic State, also known as ISIL.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/iraq-war-tony-abbott-hints-at-deployment-frustration-20141015-11699j.html#ixzz3GDYrExdV

    Pathetic.

  17. Oakshott

    You are a medico so you have no excuse to be so silly. Eboloa is NOW in its early exponential rapid rise stage. This week alone has seen the no of Ebola deaths jumping from 3500 to 4500 – ie so next week we can assume perhaps 6000 deaths and the week after 8000. By the end of November at the rate we are going it would seem likely there will be 10-15,000 deaths and 20-30,000 infected. Your figures are not so rosy when it is chance of being infected is 1:55,000. By Xmas the Figures are more likely to be 20,000 dead and 40,000 infected ie a ration closer to 1:30,000.

    If left unchecked the deaths will increase exponentially so that by the end of March 2016 the chances of being infected with Ebola in Afica will be below 1:4,000 and by June the chances more like 1:500. By the end of 2016 more 1:10.

  18. You do understand what a statistical analysis across a 40 year period means right?

    It means you’ve conducted t-tests to establish that the differences between the relevant sets of numbers are statistically significant. Though I don’t think that is in fact what you mean.

  19. #513 You do understand what a statistical analysis across a 40 year period means right?

    Drug Crims, i think you are mixing me up with someone else?

  21. Hah Convicts
    What is your idea of good policy for the medical use of marijauna?

    And, in the spirit of individual freedom and self determination, should adults have the right to take any substance they like, as long as they do not operate machinery?

    Do you favour the dignity of risk for people with disabilities who want to undertake dangerous activities, such as base-jumping, and should the tax-payer fund supports for this?

    Do you believe in state funded sex workers for people with disabilities to have fulfilling sexual recreation, as they do in Sweden?

    Do you think Australia’s best contribution to cutting dangerous emissions to not to introduce an ETS, but to simply leave all our coal in the ground?

  23. http://www.amnesty.org/en/news/saudi-arabia-appalling-death-sentence-against-shi-cleric-must-be-quashed-2014-10-15

    A death sentence passed today against a dissident Shi’a Muslim cleric in Saudi Arabia for “disobeying the ruler”, “inciting sectarian strife” and “encouraging, leading and participating in demonstrations” after a deeply flawed trial is appalling and must be immediately quashed, said Amnesty International.

    “The death sentence against Sheikh Nimr Baqir al-Nimr is part of a campaign by the authorities in Saudi Arabia to crush all dissent, including those defending the rights of the Kingdom’s Shi’a Muslim community,” said Said Boumedouha, Deputy Director of Amnesty International’s Middle East and North Africa Programme.

    Sheikh al-Nimr’s brother, Mohammad al-Nimr, was reportedly arrested after the sentence was passed at the Specialised Criminal Court in Riyadh.

  24. Though I don’t think that is in fact what you mean.

    A 40 year analysis conducted about all the PM’s based off one PM and one poll was the reply I recieved. Similar to me talking about a car and getting a reply about a boat.

  27. Morning all

    Guytaur

    The tories in Vic appear to be under a little pressure

    Premier Denis Napthine heard tearing strips of Health Minister David Davis in Spring St boilover http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria-state-election-2014/premier-denis-napthine-heard-tearing-strips-of-health-minister-david-davis-in-spring-st-boilover/story-fnocxssc-1227091900191 … #springst #vicvotes
    11:46 PM – 15 Oct 2014
    Premier Denis Napthine heard tearing strips of Health Minister David…
    PREMIER Denis Napthine tore strips off Health Minister David Davis outside the Upper House yesterday, Liberal MPs told the Herald Sun.

  32. Another questionable issue for the Napthine govt

    Almost $1.6 billion worth of public school assets have been written off as “obsolete” by the state government in a move which has “significantly” cut funding requirements for new classrooms, Victoria’s financial watchdog has warned.
    In a highly unusual intervention, Auditor-General John Doyle has refused to sign off on a final tally of the state’s finances for the 2013-14 financial year amid a heated debate about the valuation of school assets.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-state-election-2014/schools-undervalued-by-state-says-watchdog-20141015-116dmf.html#ixzz3GFL4XTXa

  33. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Peter FitzSimons – It’s time for the Wallabies to have a good look at themselves. Peter’s not happy.
    http://www.smh.com.au/sport/the-fitz-files/wallabies-its-time-to-handle-the-truth-20141015-116flh.html
    Putin “unlikely” to Meet Abbott until times are “more diplomatic and unpleasant”.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/15/vladimir-putin-unlikely-to-meet-with-tony-abbott-at-g20-says-kremlin
    Sounds like ALL of them are drama queens.
    http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/celebrity/private-sydney/paul-howes-drama-takes-centre-stage-at-opera-house-ball-20141015-116h5t.html
    Will Abbott’s stance on coal hurt him at the polls?
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2014/10/15/fossil-fuel-fixation-threatens-abbott-comeback/
    The unrelenting campaign against Clover Moore continues.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/illjudged-politics-underlies-clover-attacks-20141015-11681u.html
    Economics Nobel laureate challenges Hockeynomics.
    http://www.independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/nobel-prize-for-economics-challenges-hockeynomics,6997
    Compensation reforms in the APS are “harsh and unjust”. Abetz continues his work.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/public-service-workers-compensation-reforms-are-harsh-and-unjust-say-labor-20141015-116idm.html
    Has Germany’s bubble finally burst?
    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/10/16/global-news/has-germanys-bubble-finally-burst
    Heath Aston – No case for the new anti-terror laws.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/muslim-groups-lawyers-and-academics-call-for-foreign-fighters-bill-to-be-put-on-ice-20141015-116hyz.html
    Enough to make you sick!
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/uniforms-a-weapon-in-the-school-marketing-wars-20141015-115n0a.html

  34. Section 2 . . .

    Wayne Swan – Australia is a leaner when it comes to climate change.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/15/australia-a-laggard-rather-than-leader-on-climate-change-says-wayne-swan
    Will the US free trade agreement hurt us when it comes to health?
    https://theconversation.com/coalitions-policy-bodes-ill-for-health-in-free-trade-negotiations-32575
    Man bites dog.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/workcover-nsw-bullying-wayne-butler-receives-belated-apology-for-poor-treatment-and-dismissal-20141016-116jx1.html
    Are the polls getting to Napthine?
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/premier-denis-napthine-reportedly-seen-ripping-into-david-davis-in-victorian-parliament-20141016-3i3mc.html
    Microchip RFID implants next?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/opposition-grows-to-storage-of-photo-and-biometric-data-20141015-116lur.html
    The Russian PM gives Abbott a coathanger.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/dmitry-medvedev-calls-on-tony-abbott-to-tone-down-comments-after-threat-to-shirtfront-vladimir-putin-20141015-116mtc.html
    The G20 is no place for shirtfronting.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/dmitry-medvedev-calls-on-tony-abbott-to-tone-down-comments-after-threat-to-shirtfront-vladimir-putin-20141015-116mtc.html
    Baird’s donation reforms are flawed says this SMH editorial.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/bairds-donations-reform-flawed-risky-and-halfhearted-20141015-11683d.html

  38. Morning all. Thanks Victoria for those delightful headlines about Victoria’s charming State government. Sometimes the level of stupidity evident in Canberra can be so great we forget about the idiots in some State parliaments.

    Speaking of which, the SA opposition has come out with a truly breathtaking demand that the government apologise for wasted millions of $ resulting from the delay of the Gawler line electrification.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-15/sa-liberal-party-demands-apology-from-government/5816560?WT.ac=statenews_sa

    What is breathtaking is that the waste occurred directly because the Abbott government, contrary to past convention, pulled the Federal funds from an in-progress rail project. The State warned of the implications, but they did it anyway. Of course, since Abbott and Hockey also required that the State contribute funds to Federally (Liberal) promised road projects, there was nothing left to pay the balance of the rail work with.

  40. Dallas: Authorities in the United States are working to notify the 131 other passengers on the flight that carried a second Texas nurse who has come down with Ebola in Dallas.

    The second Dallas health-care worker diagnosed with Ebola travelled on Monday on a Frontier Airlines flight. The federal Centres for Disease Control and Prevention is asking all passengers from Frontier flight 1143, which landed on Monday everning after a flight from Cleveland to Dallas-Fort Worth, to call the CDC.

    http://www.theage.com.au/world/ebola-outbreak-race-to-notify-131-other-passengers-on-flight-that-carried-second-infected-nurse-20141016-116pfb.html

  41. BK thanks for the links as always. The story on Germany is just the tip of the iceberg:
    [Has Germany’s bubble finally burst?
    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/10/16/global-news/has-germanys-bubble-finally-burst%5D

    Paul Krugman had a piece a few days ago about the risk of the whole of Europe sliding into another recession. Their economic policy has been very foolish, and deflation is occurring, which often causes people in debt to go into bankruptcy.
    http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/10/11/europanic-2-0/?_php=true&_type=blogs&module=BlogPost-Title&version=Blog%20Main&contentCollection=Opinion&action=Click&pgtype=Blogs&region=Body&_r=0

    Of course the ECB is dominated by German bankers. They make great cars, but German bankers do not make great financial policy. They think running Europe is the same as running Germany. It is not.

  42. The treatment of Queensland Doctors suspended for talking to media over ebola practise may be part of Senate Inquiry into Newman Government

  43. The second Ebola case in a Texas hospital really does sound bad. Unfortunately it is also consistent with this Wired article “What would stop the spread of Ebola” which is highly critical of the low priority given to public health and infectious disease generally. Lack of training and lack of equipment from lack of funds is the problem.
    http://www.wired.com/2014/10/ebola-ic-research/

  44. How petty!

    Tim Beshara ‏2 hours ago
    Still giggling that the local MP put a post up congratulating Richard Flanagan, only to take it down again when he found out he’s a greenie

  45. Putin “unlikely” to Meet Abbott until times are “more diplomatic and unpleasant”.

    Putin not exactly being pleasant himself –

    Putin Warns Of “Nuclear Power Consequences” If Attempts To Blackmail Russia Don’t Stop

    From an interview with Serbia’s Politika newspaper, Bloomberg reports –

    It’s futile for the U.S. and its allies to “blackmail” Russia over the Ukraine crisis, President Vladimir Putin said in a newspaper interview today.

    …“We hope that our partners will realize the futility of attempts to blackmail Russia and remember what consequences discord between major nuclear powers could bring for strategic stability,”

    …“Together with the sanctions against entire sectors of our economy, this approach can be called nothing but hostile,” Putin said.

    …“How can we talk about de-escalation in Ukraine while the decisions on new sanctions are introduced almost simultaneously with the agreements on the peace process?” he said

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-15/putin-warns-nuclear-power-consequences-if-attempts-blackmail-russia-dont-stop

  50. It would be great if we had a right wing poster who came on here to actually debate policy, wouldn’t it?

    There must BE arguments – other than “Labor bad” – for at least some of the actions taken by the Federal government, but we don’t get to hear them.

    Instead, the right wing idea of debate is to criticise the other side, rather than to defend their own agenda.

    It would add greatly to the knowledge of all of us here if someone took the time and patience to take us through the thinking – and the evidence – supporting government proposals such as their PPL, Direct Action, the Medicare co-payment, University deregulation (come on – there must be actual arguments supporting that one!) and denying young people the dole.

    In the vacuum created by no one taking the field, of course we overlook the worthiness of these policies. We need the guidance of a greater intellect, and I encourage any right winger who feels they are up to the task to provide it.

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