Seat of the week: Flinders

Presently held for the Liberals by Environment Minister Greg Hunt, the Mornington Peninsula and Phillip Island seat of Flinders was famously lost by Prime Minister Stanley Bruce in 1929, but Labor has only managed to win it on two further occasions since.

Blue and red numbers respectively indicate size of two-party Liberal and Labor polling booth majorities. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Environment Minister Greg Hunt’s seat of Flinders encompasses the southern part of Victoria’s Mornington Peninsula, including the mouth of Port Phillip Bay at Portsea, along with the area around Westernport Bay further to the east, including Phillip Island. Its territory along Port Phillip Bay commences at Mount Martha, 60 kilometres to the south of central Melbourne, from which it extends through Dromana, Rosebud and Rye to Sorrento and Portsea, an area popular with retirees. Its other major centres are Somerville in the centre of the Mornington Peninsula and Hastings along the western shore of Westernport Bay. The electorate has existed federation, and has covered almost the entirety of its present area since that time. It originally extended north to Dandenong and east to Drouin, Warragul and Leongatha, before the latter areas were absorbed by the new seat of McMillan when parliament expanded in 1949, and the electorate of Bruce was created to accommodate Melbourne’s south-eastern expansion in 1955.

Flinders has been won by Labor on only three occasions in its history, the most memorable being the defeat of the then Prime Minister, Stanley Bruce, in 1929. Bruce recovered the seat in 1931, and it would next be won by Labor at a by-election in 1952, before returning to the Liberal fold at the next general election in 1954. Phillip Lynch came to the seat in 1966, going on to serve as Treasurer in the first term of the Fraser government, then resigning a month before the December 1977 election over his use of a family trust to minimise tax. Lynch returned to cabinet after the election upon being cleared by an inquiry as Industry and Commerce Minister, the Treasury portfolio remaining with his successor, John Howard. His retirement precipitated a momentous by-election in November 1982, at which Peter Reith retained the seat for the Liberals in the face a surprisingly mild swing of 2.3%. This sealed Bill Hayden’s fate as Labor leader, and he was toppled by Bob Hawke on the day Malcolm Fraser called the 1983 election the following February. It was at that election that Labor won Flinders for the third and so far final time, with Reith losing to Labor’s Robert Chynoweth without having had the opportunity to assume the seat he had won at the by-election.

With the enlargement of parliament at the 1984 election, Chynoweth moved to the slightly safer new seat of Dunkley, and Reith recovered Flinders with a swing of 1.5%. Reith held the seat with fair-to-middling margins until he retired after an eventful five years as a Howard government minister in 2001. He was then succeeded by Greg Hunt, who gained a secure hold on the seat with consecutive swings of 3.9% in 2001 and 3.5% in 2004. Hunt won promotion to parliamentary secretary in January 2007, and then to shadow cabinet in the important climate change and environment portfolio after the 2007 election defeat. He has maintained the environment portfolio ever since, although the climate change portfolio was abolished after the Abbott government came to power. Hunt’s present margin in the seat is 11.9%, following a 2.8% swing in his favour at the 2013 election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,285 comments on “Seat of the week: Flinders”

Comments Page 22 of 26
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  1. Prof Hugh White says Obama’s campaign in Iraq in already doomed to fail__________________________________

    Only massive number iof troops and a public prepared to face very heavy casualities ,will win victory on the ground
    The air war is futile and our Iragi allies are hopeless

    That White considered verdict in Abbott’s intervention and his hopes for a quick victory…it is not going to happen

    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/why-the-campaign-against-islamic-state-is-doomed-20141013-1154pa

  2. [ and only stupid people expect anything different. ]

    That didn’t come out well Steve777. Was not actually calling you stupid. Sorry.

  3. I assume the Middle East venture will be a dismal failure as have all the other interventions. I am one to say stay out of it and let them fight it out amongst themselves and treat with whomever is the eventual winner. Sometimes the only thing you can do is let people kill each other until they have had their fill of killing. And dying.

  7. http://www.theage.com.au/comment/the-age-editorial/anticorruption-body-will-still-be-too-weak-20141013-3hxbb.html

    [This outcome is thoroughly unsatisfactory. If IBAC is not sufficiently furnished with powers to do its job, then public confidence in its ability to do the vital work of routing corruption will be undermined. In opposition, the Coalition relentlessly criticised the Bracks and Brumby governments for refusing to set up an anti-corruption commission. Yet in government, the Coalition took more than two years to get IBAC working and still the model fails to meet what Victorians are entitled to expect.]

  10. The Lying Friar loves to wrap himself in the flag, and deploy troops at the drop of a hat. But shafting the ADF on pay and conditions may come back to bite

    [
    Australian Defence Force personnel say the government’s new pay offer is “an outrage”, “a disgrace” and “a joke”.

    Thousands of sailors, soldiers and Air Force personnel have reacted with fury to being asked to give up some of their Christmas and recreational leave in order to get the pay rise of just 1.5 per cent a year over the next three years.

    By Monday afternoon 7123 soldiers, sailors, Air Force personnel, reservists or their families had contacted the peak defence advocacy group with 90 per cent of them saying they “strongly disapproved” of the government’s offer.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/diggers-vent-fury-at-outrageous-pay-offer-20141013-11576m.html#ixzz3G3egUn1r

  11. Morning all. I can only agree with those who say to stay out of Iraq. We caused enough problems last time. Comparing to the situation in Bosnia after the break up of Yugoslavia, we should let the Kurds and Yezidis be armed to defend themselves. Their only hope of survival is if they are permitted to defend themselves. After the disastrous arming of some other factions during the occupation, ISIL has heavy weapons, and their opponents do not. IMO the only stable solution not involving massacres is an independent Kurdish state. Of course, Iran and Turkey do not want that.

    SO why do we send a small amount of troops there? Abbott does not care about solving the problem. He wants to be seen as tough, and fighting the enemies of his most bigoted supporters. It is all for domestic consumption, and has nothing to do with foreign policy.

  12. Sprocket you are quite correct. Abbott is sending a small group of SAS soldiers to Iraq who will almost certainly have men killed for no military outcome – all for his domestic political agenda. They are just pawns to him, so why would he pay them fairly?

  13. Speaking of our Prime Sociopath, he is responsible for two headlines that are both at the same time spectacularly stupid and dishonest:
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australians-were-murdered–i-am-going-to-shirtfront-mr-putin-20141013-3hxbc.html

    What does “shirtfront” even mean? Are we cutting trade ties with Russia?

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/coal-is-good-for-humanity-says-tony-abbott-at-mine-opening-20141013-115bgs.html
    I wonder what the residents of Morwell think of that claim? Maybe they are not human in Tony’s eyes.

  16. Socrates

    The stupid journo’s comment was “what else could he say?”
    He could have said anything else except “good for humanity”. He just doesn’t get it.

  18. lizzie

    Indeed. What bothers me is that I increasingly suspect that sometimes Abbott does get it, but unless the persons harmed are people he identifies with, he doesn’t care.

  20. [Because the fuel levy was regressive and both were exercises in misdirection intended to cover a budget that had massively regressive transfers built into it and in addition was structured around the meme of ‘getting a surplus’ which, stated as a principle, is nonsense as well as reactionary.]

    Well, I agree with all of the second bit but don’t agree that it justifies opposition. Denying this small bit of revenue won’t make the budget more fair, providing it wouldn’t make the budget less fair. You might just as well say that right-wing governments should be denied all revenue and made as unworkable as possible. That’s a perfectly reasonable position from a radical politics perspective but not so much from a framework of parliamentary politics, which was the context for the decision.

    As regards the former, carbon pricing is inherently regressive but is necessary nonetheless. We can’t go around judging everything on just one criterion.

  21. ModLib

    [The hostility would be due to the contributions highlighting the inconsistencies and hypocrisy of other bloggers on PB]

    No, it’s because you yourself don’t accept your own inconsistencies and adopt a higher moral tone which is undeserved.

    I’m still waiting for your apology to lizzie.

    To lash out at someone because they point out that you’ve made a mistake (without checking whether or not the censure was merited), insist that you don’t have to apologise because all you were doing was cutting and pasting someone else, play the victim (you’re all just picking on me) and then let other posters think lizzie was the one to blame because she was distraught by grief was dishonest and cowardly.

    Until you apologise to lizzie – whether or not she wants you too, but because it’s the right thing to do – don’t you dare pretend to lecture others.

  22. The second bit is basically what I said about the politics: oppose everything associated with the budget because the budget is so bad and unfair. As I said, I’m sure they were right anout the politics of this.

  25. So no newspoll this week. No wonder Abbott put out the shirtfront line. Anything to boost his tough guy credentials to reflect at the next polls

  26. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Will Abbott threaten to shirtfront the Chinese leader too?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/coal-comfort-for-tony-abbott-20141013-115h8x.html
    Windbag Tony Wright has a serve at the shirtfront.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/muscling-up-for-a-shirtfront-g20-becomes-the-brisbane-biffo-20141013-115gsa.html
    Woolworths gets firsthand experience of the power of social networks.
    http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/fashion/woolworths-pulls-offensive-singlets-20141013-115dlp.html
    Peter Hartcher on the march of inequality and what it means for the future.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/healthy-wealthy-and-unfair-tide-goes-out-on-equality-in-australia-20141013-115fa9.html
    Hugh White examines Abbott’s “good quick, cheap war in Iraq”. Well worth a read.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/healthy-wealthy-and-unfair-tide-goes-out-on-equality-in-australia-20141013-115fa9.html
    Paul Bongiorno – our government will fight wars, not disease.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2014/10/13/well-fight-wars-disease-says-abbott-government/
    The secret to unlocking productivity in manufacturing.
    https://theconversation.com/the-secret-to-unlocking-productivity-in-manufacturing-32369
    Five reasons the terror laws wreck media freedom and democracy.
    http://www.independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/five-reasons-terror-laws-wreck-media-freedom-and-democracy,6990
    Bob Ellis on the Putin factor.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/10/13/and-now-the-putin-factor/
    The non-reality of working until 70.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/2014/10/13/retiring-70-treasurer-might-disappointed/

  27. Section 2 . . .

    Eric Abetz – He who must not be named. What a petty bully it is!
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/he-who-must-not-be-named-at-the-ato-its-eric-abetz-20141013-11437s.html
    And the DHS may be headed for strike action as Abetz strives to reduce effective hourly pay rates.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/up-to-15000-staff-to-vote-on-department-of-human-services-strike-over-pay-20141013-115bxv.html
    Jenna Price exhorts us to let our thoughts be known directly to our MPs.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/talk-to-your-mp–the-elections-just-round-the-corner-20141013-1158cz.html
    Peter Martin looks at the jobs claims by Napthine and how Hockey holds the future regardless of who wins in Victoria next month.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/victorian-jobs-hockey-will-have-the-last-say-20141013-1156gn.html
    Michelle Grattan looks at how Shorten will need to approach having an ETS policy.
    https://theconversation.com/the-climate-in-paris-will-have-an-impact-on-labors-prospects-for-the-2016-carbon-debate-32909
    Islamophobia – a global threat we’ll be fighting for the next 100 years.
    https://newmatilda.com/2014/10/13/islamophobia-global-threat-well-be-fighting-100-years
    South Australia’s new ICAC strikes at the police.
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/icac-investigation-six-adelaide-sapol-police-officers-charged-with-theft-abuse-of-public-office/story-fni6uo1m-1227089415447
    An interesting case this Thursday in the Federal Court – about 100 children born in Australia to asylum seekers.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/court-case-to-decide-fate-of-100-children-of-asylum-seekers-20141013-115bnw.html

  28. Section 3 . . .

    Some hens night party!
    http://www.theage.com.au/lifestyle/life/dwarf-stripper-gets-bride-pregnant-on-her-hens-night-20141013-115bqh.html
    Mark Scott speaks out against the ABC cuts.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbott-government-risks-political-pain-with-abc-budget-cuts-warns-mark-scott-20141013-115g59.html
    The Puff Adder rears its head!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/sophie-mirabella-comeback-could-be-blocked-by-threecornered-contest-in-indi-20141013-1156rt.html
    Some great perspective from Alan Moir.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    David Pope on the ANU’s investment policy.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    Ron Tandberg on terror and the polls.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html

  29. MartinB

    [Well, I agree with all of the second bit but don’t agree that it justifies opposition. Denying this small bit of revenue won’t make the budget more fair, providing it wouldn’t make the budget less fair. ]

    That misses the point, IMO. Amongst other things, our politics needs to make the big picture points. This budget was a raid conducted by the privileged against the disadvantaged. The utterly trivial tax levy on upper middle income folk was part of pretending that the heavy lifting was being shared — which it clearly wasn’t — and that heavy lifting was essential because there was a crisis.

    [You might just as well say that right-wing governments should be denied all revenue and made as unworkable as possible. That’s a perfectly reasonable position from a radical politics perspective but not so much from a framework of parliamentary politics, which was the context for the decision.]

    I am not saying that they should be denied all revenue. I am saying that there should be a robust and transparent process in which the rationale(s) for revenue measures and their modelled impacts become part of a public discourse — particularly as these measures were expressly denied by the regime prior to September 2013 and moreover, that the regime has been lying that their is a crisis and finally, if there were a crisis, there would be better, non-regressive options for addressing fiscal imbalances. Particularly as a non-governing progressive party, our role must be to engage the public and change the conversation to one about equity and inclusion and public investment in key services.

    [As regards the former, carbon pricing is inherently regressive but is necessary nonetheless. We can’t go around judging everything on just one criterion.]

    The pricing of emissions is regressive but compensation can and did mitigate most of the regressive impacts that the policy had. We ought not be relegated to being mere footnotes in an assault on the disadvantaged. Milne was right.

  30. Zoomster

    [If a right action is taken for the wrong reason, it still makes it the right action.]

    That’s often so, but that rule of thumb is not germane here.

  31. [1075
    victoria

    So no newspoll this week. No wonder Abbott put out the shirtfront line. Anything to boost his tough guy credentials to reflect at the next polls]

    In the media cast, Abbott associated Putin with the murder of 39 (?) people “linked to Australia”. The actual number of Australians killed was 28. So he hyped the tragedy and implied that Putin had murdered 39 or so of our kin. Putin is undoubtedly a killer, as is Obama and Cameron, and as Abbott hopes to become. But this assertion about Putin is tabloid anti-diplomacy. Abbott has made himself ridiculous while also making it less likely there will ever be a satisfactory investigation into MH17. He is the bogan PM.

  32. [Amongst other things, our politics needs to make the big picture points.]

    Again, I’d describe that as the politics rather than the policy. But I accept there is something of a semantic debate here so if someone is going to put the line between these in a different spot they’ll form different judgements on the original premise.

  34. BK

    [Paul Bongiorno – our government will fight wars, not disease.]
    A Qld professor in infectious diseases blew Abbott’s bullshit excuses for not helping with Ebola out of the water last night. She pointed out that Ebola is in fact not highly infectious and the required protocols for dealing with such patients are the same as ones already in place for dealing with infectious diseases.

    It seems the key is correct order of donning and discarding PPE.

  40. [Emirates Flight Quarantined In Boston’s Logan Airport Over Ebola Scare

    One of the reasons why the market sold off rapidly in the last hour or so, has been news out of Boston that an Emirates flights has been quarantined at Logan Airport.

    …according to the Massachusetts Port Authority, five passengers on an a flight from Dubai were experiencing flu-like symptoms. Crews are on the ground responding to the situation.]

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-13/emirates-flight-quarantined-bostons-logan-airport-over-ebola-scare-live-webcast

  43. Could the shirtfrontgate be because of the AS High Court case today. The one where Morrison attempted to transfer them to India.

    AS lawyers presser in about 30 minutes

  46. Oh the irony – Palmer butts his nose in –

    [ The leader of the Palmer United Party, Clive Palmer, says he doubts Prime Minister Tony Abbott will “physically attack” Russian President Vladimir Putin when he arrives in Australia for the G20 next month.

    We see a politician who thinks it is cool to be rude, insolent, insulting, impolite, impertinent, unpolished, gross, unpleasant and downright impudent ]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbotts-views-on-vladimir-putin-spark-angry-reaction-from-russia-20141014-115lox.html#ixzz3G48qjttn

  47. dave

    [We see a politician who…… rude, insolent, insulting, impolite, impertinent, unpolished, gross, unpleasant and downright impudent ]
    Clive must have read that Pravda article about Abbott 🙂

  48. @political_alert: Shadow Treasurer @Bowenchris will address the Association of Financial Advisers 2014 National Conference, 9:30am, Cairns #auspol

  49. [1093
    guytaur]

    There is an awaited ruling from the HC on Temporary Protection Visas. Maybe the HC is going to shirtfront the Government.

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