ReachTEL: 51-49 to LNP in Queensland

Separate ReachTEL polls suggest Campbell Newman’s government faces a huge but not quite decisive statewide swing, but is performing somewhat better in the state’s far north.

After a promising result for the Newman government in the July-September quarterly Newspoll result, the Sunday Mail today carries a ReachTEL poll which contradicts its finding that Liberal National Party support is on an upswing. The automated phone poll of 1471 respondents showed essentially no change for the two major parties on the primary vote since the last such poll a month ago, with the LNP down 0.3% to 40.9% and Labor up 0.6% to 36.6%. However, Palmer United maintain a downward trend to record 7.2%, its monthly progress since July having been from 15.4% to 12.6% to 9.5% to 7.2%. The report provides no result for the Greens, who were on 6.0% last time (UPDATE: PinkyOz in comments passes on from the hard copy that it’s 7.6%). Two-party preferred is unchanged, the LNP maintaining its lead of 51-49 (compared with 54-46 from Newspoll).

Even more interestingly, the Cairns Post has ReachTEL results from the four seats on the paper’s home turf, encompassing 1709 respondents in Cairns, Barron River, Cook and Mulgrave. Taken together, the results show the LNP on 35.7% (down 3.8% on the 2012 election), Labor on 34.4% (up 3.9%), the Greens on 7.9% (up 1.6%), Katter’s Australian Party on 8.3% (down 7.9%) and Palmer United on 7.9%. With Barron River, Cairns and Cook respectively held by the LNP by margins of 9.5%, 8.8% and 3.4%, each of the three having been lost by Labor in 2012, that suggests the LNP would be seriously troubled only in Cook. However, the individual seat breakdowns in fact show Barron River to be the most endangered, although the margin of error here would be around 5%. Curtis Pitt’s seat of Mulgrave was one of only seven won by Labor at the election, and the poll offers no indication that that’s about to change.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

8 comments on “ReachTEL: 51-49 to LNP in Queensland”

  1. Yes those family dynasties are so healthy for politics on both sides…

    Surely on these figures Campbell Newman will not survive in Ashgrove, no matter who wins overall?

  2. Socrates
    The mood is certainly very anti Newman in Ashgrove. Met a guy last week who was very hostile and admitted he had voted for him.

    However as they say a week is a long time in politics. G20, and ebola scare or a “terror” incident may change every thing.

  3. Interesting that they have provided undecided breaks when pushed……very strongly pro LNP. This would suggest, as would be pretty obvious I guess, that the undecideds are likely to be ex-LNP voters who are not happy, but when they have to decide they are leaning very heavily to the LNP (except in one of the seats).

    This is probably why the LNP is pretty confident.

  4. “Being undecided to which do you have even a slight leaning?”

    LNP ALP primaries, Seat, Undecided LNP to ALP %:
    35% to 34% Barron River: 22% to 11%
    34% to 30% Cairns 56% to 12%
    36% to 35% Cook 14% to 14%
    28% to 34% Mulgrave 25% to 16%

  5. Today’s media carry a story indicating Newman is attempting to bribe Queenslanders with reduced electricity prices from the proceeds from asset leases.
    How many mugs will there be?

  6. Consider this unconfirmed, but I did read that Sunday Mail article this morning. The chart read 7.6% for the Greens (Up +1.6%).

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