Seat of the week: Flinders

Presently held for the Liberals by Environment Minister Greg Hunt, the Mornington Peninsula and Phillip Island seat of Flinders was famously lost by Prime Minister Stanley Bruce in 1929, but Labor has only managed to win it on two further occasions since.

Blue and red numbers respectively indicate size of two-party Liberal and Labor polling booth majorities. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Environment Minister Greg Hunt’s seat of Flinders encompasses the southern part of Victoria’s Mornington Peninsula, including the mouth of Port Phillip Bay at Portsea, along with the area around Westernport Bay further to the east, including Phillip Island. Its territory along Port Phillip Bay commences at Mount Martha, 60 kilometres to the south of central Melbourne, from which it extends through Dromana, Rosebud and Rye to Sorrento and Portsea, an area popular with retirees. Its other major centres are Somerville in the centre of the Mornington Peninsula and Hastings along the western shore of Westernport Bay. The electorate has existed federation, and has covered almost the entirety of its present area since that time. It originally extended north to Dandenong and east to Drouin, Warragul and Leongatha, before the latter areas were absorbed by the new seat of McMillan when parliament expanded in 1949, and the electorate of Bruce was created to accommodate Melbourne’s south-eastern expansion in 1955.

Flinders has been won by Labor on only three occasions in its history, the most memorable being the defeat of the then Prime Minister, Stanley Bruce, in 1929. Bruce recovered the seat in 1931, and it would next be won by Labor at a by-election in 1952, before returning to the Liberal fold at the next general election in 1954. Phillip Lynch came to the seat in 1966, going on to serve as Treasurer in the first term of the Fraser government, then resigning a month before the December 1977 election over his use of a family trust to minimise tax. Lynch returned to cabinet after the election upon being cleared by an inquiry as Industry and Commerce Minister, the Treasury portfolio remaining with his successor, John Howard. His retirement precipitated a momentous by-election in November 1982, at which Peter Reith retained the seat for the Liberals in the face a surprisingly mild swing of 2.3%. This sealed Bill Hayden’s fate as Labor leader, and he was toppled by Bob Hawke on the day Malcolm Fraser called the 1983 election the following February. It was at that election that Labor won Flinders for the third and so far final time, with Reith losing to Labor’s Robert Chynoweth without having had the opportunity to assume the seat he had won at the by-election.

With the enlargement of parliament at the 1984 election, Chynoweth moved to the slightly safer new seat of Dunkley, and Reith recovered Flinders with a swing of 1.5%. Reith held the seat with fair-to-middling margins until he retired after an eventful five years as a Howard government minister in 2001. He was then succeeded by Greg Hunt, who gained a secure hold on the seat with consecutive swings of 3.9% in 2001 and 3.5% in 2004. Hunt won promotion to parliamentary secretary in January 2007, and then to shadow cabinet in the important climate change and environment portfolio after the 2007 election defeat. He has maintained the environment portfolio ever since, although the climate change portfolio was abolished after the Abbott government came to power. Hunt’s present margin in the seat is 11.9%, following a 2.8% swing in his favour at the 2013 election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,285 comments on “Seat of the week: Flinders”

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  6. “@nicchristensen: ABC texter wants to know if ABC will broadcast live the Putin vs Abbott fight. @mscott says he thinks everyone will be there for that.”

  8. Pretty predictable (in fact actually predicted), but, well, there youse go.

    Another big story in the War On Zombie Jihadis bites the dust. So far The Daily Telegraph’s front page has a stunning score: 0/10.

    * No Jailhouse Jihadis,
    * No Goulbourn Supermax Riots,
    * No Assault On Lucas Heights
    * No threats to Our Beloved Prime Minister,
    * The Death Sword was a plastic toy,
    * The Terrorists In Our Midst were all released, but one,
    * The Foreign Hate Speechers were all Aussies,
    * The Burqa Bombers didn’t turn up,
    * Dropping pianos on ISIS would be as effective as bombs (much cheaper, too),

    and now…

    It looks like our “frontline troops” will have to stay limited to 6 aircrews at 20,000 feet, with 400 others playing euchre back on the tarmac, because “SAS boots on the ground” is still a no-no for the Iraqis.

    And as if to encourage our brave boys in khaki, we’ve cut their pay. Morale must be sky high in the ADF as they “defend their country” against the Zombie Hordes.

    Abbott told The Troops he was their best friend. They should have asked Joe Hockey, Peter Reith, Bernie Banton, SBY, Western Sydney, the Muslim population of Australia and Arthur Sinodinos, what that meant, exactly.

    Meanwhile…

    Australia’s Special Forces waiting in UAE for legal all-clear to enter Iraq to help fight Islamic State
    THE Iraqi government is in no rush to allow Australia’s 200 Special Forces into their country to “advise and assist” the Iraqi Security Forces in repelling the Islamic State, and there is no indication that a sign-off is imminent.

    Australia’s Special Forces, under the leadership of 2nd Commando Regiment, are still awaiting the legal all-clear to deploy to Iraq, despite having arrived in the United Arab Emirates a month ago and being fully equipped to go.

    Military leaders in Australia’s forward operating base in the UAE said last week a form of words had been agreed between Baghdad and Canberra on the deployment.

    However, the new Iraqi government of Haider al-Abadi yesterday expressed reluctance about allowing foreign troops onto Iraqi soil – even though small groups of combat specialists, including US, German and British, have made their way to the frontlines.

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/world/australias-special-forces-waiting-in-uae-for-legal-all-clear-to-enter-iraq-to-help-fight-islamic-state/story-fni0xs63-1227089478155

    A “form of words”? Those Iraqis are pretty dumb, and it looks like they’re pretty cowardly, too. But they can spot a liar a hundred kilometres off. Tony Abbott is no mirage.

    But back in the Big Media laboratory that is Rupert’s Australia…

    You have to hand it to the Murdoch Press. To have manufactured a 4-point reversal in the polls out of thin air, based on bullshit that never happened (and never was going to happen) is a true achievement.

    To take the minds of pensioners, students, the disabled, manufacturing workers, the Alternative Energy Sector, Small Business, Large Business, Telecommunications consumers and Science in General off the way they are being royally screwed-over in favour of a few mining companies, the dying coal industry and pointless military expedition that so far is unprosecuted, unexplained, unwinnable and completely fabricated is a monumental effort.

    But they did it. It’s undeniable. They pulled a non-existent rabbit out of a non-existent hat and produced the War that never was.

  9. fess

    The irony is delicious.

    PUP dishing out advice on how people should ‘conduct’ themselves.

    The MSM seem a little slow of the mark commenting on abbott’s aggression though. Another free kick to our ‘thug in chief’?

    Wonder if Putin will ask abbott which Australia city he prefers to get a Russian Hydrogen bomb dropped on.

  11. dave:

    This Putin vs Abbott crap is exactly the kind of inane, vacuous peripheral beloved by the Canberra press gallery, and just the kind of thing they’d get caught up in when the G20 finally arrives here.

    Those who want more insightful commentary on the G20 communiques will be reading the international media.

  12. Really, this “shirtftont” business is such an embarrassingly immature macho outburst – reminiscent of being an 18 y.o. moron: a phase many of us want to forget.

    Abbott demonstrates once again he is completely unfit to be PM. He lacks emotional maturity.

  14. But just imagine if they DO come face to face and start chesting-up to each other?

    In front of the rest of the World’s leaders!

    How embarrassing.

    I guess the Big Question is: will the Press Gallery be able to let it go? OR will they start chanting, “Fight! Fight! Fight!”.

  16. DN:

    Indeed, just as he’s done since being Liberal leader. And doesn’t it speak volumes about our media that once again they can’t see past the circus.

  17. [guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, October 14, 2014 at 9:28 am | PERMALINK
    @TimCampbellTwit: Staggering to see NSW Premier @mikebairdMP in an ad flogging The Daily Telegraph. #Auspol
    http://t.co/CnUjQSa3yD

    What media bias?]

    Some questions:

    What does Baird receive in return – in cash or in kind?

    Did Murdoch pay to hire the train/carriage or was it donated by the Baird government?

    Were regular commuters inconvenienced by the filming?

  18. [truculent
    ˈtrʌkjʊl(ə)nt/
    adjective
    adjective: truculent

    eager or quick to argue or fight; aggressively defiant.

    synonyms: defiant, aggressive, antagonistic, belligerent, pugnacious, bellicose, combative, confrontational, ready for a fight, hostile, obstreperous, argumentative, quarrelsome, contentious, uncooperative]

    Abbott the Dill.

  19. The context for the ‘form of words’ is the establishment of a SOFA between Australia (and other nations) and Iraq.

    These typically cover the gamut of relations between the military and the host country.

    Typically the most contentious element is whether or no the visiting military are subject to host country civil law.

    (This came up with the stationing of US marines in Darwin. After a short kerfuffle the US has graciously agreed to those marines being subject to Australian civil law. Bludger had relevant posts at the time.)

    One reason the US military finally pulled completly out of Iraq was that al-Maliki refused to sign a SOFA that exempted US military from Iraqi civilian law.

    A leitmotif of the Afghanistan War was serial complaints by the Afghanistan Government about the West’s killing of civilians. But there was nothing that the Afghanistan Government could do about but complain because the killers were not subject to Afghanistan law, courtesy of the relevant SOFAs.

    This week the DT had a front page article on an incident in which Australian troops killed unarmed Vietnamese civilians in an ambush.

    This is the sort of incident that would remain under Iraqi civil law. It is also the sort of incident which helps explain why our troops will not be going into Iraq any time soon.

    (There are other reasons. One of these is that a substantial proportion of the Shia population do not want Western soldiers in Iraq.)

    You can understand why the ADF and Abbott would rather not be held locally accountable for all their actions. Some of the reasons are good: a shambles of a legal system being one such. Other reasons are, quite simply, evil: the desire firstly to cover up, and secondly, not to be held accountable for war crimes.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Status_of_forces_agreement

  20. They just played footage of Abbott issuing his puerile threat. He was literally somewhat incoherent. I suspect that a very short way into the interview he realised that his mouth had escaped.

    Again.

  22. Hehe I did not think of Henderson in this context 🙂

    “@dannolan: people tweeting links to pravda to attack the prime minister

    is this how craven australian politics has become”

    “@dannolan: gerard’s going to lose his fcuking mind”

  23. It is right and proper that the Prime Minister of Australia have strong and frank words of the President of Russia on MH17 and, for that matter, any concerns that we have about the situation in Ukraine. It is also fair enough to publically indicate his intention to do so.

    But to publically talk about ‘shirtfronting’, like an aggressive drunk in a pub, is, shall we say, not very helpful, either to our relationship with Russia or to conveying our justified concerns and differences regarding MH17.

    Abbott is an idiot.

  24. BB

    [But they did it. It’s undeniable. They pulled a non-existent rabbit out of a non-existent hat and produced the War that never was.]

    And could you imagine if team Labor had not fully supported the tories all the way?!!

  25. How about a charity fight between all the leaders Putin and Abbott, Obama and any of the others up for a bit of biffo.

    The proceeds to go the Ebola assistance. Followed up by a test of REAL courage all the leaders to spend thee days treating Ebola patients in West Africa.

  28. [Yesterday, Prime Minister Tony Abbott ‒ fresh from saying coal is good for humanity ‒ stood in front of an enormous coal truck in Central Queensland and, like a punch drunk pug trying to trash talk a much more highly fancied opponent, said he was going to “shirtfront” Russian President Vladimir Putin.

    Firstly, “shirtfront” — what does that even mean?]

    http://www.independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/shirtfronting-with-vlad-the-impaler-and-tony-dum-dum,6992#.VDxdlPcbrCQ.twitter

  29. Following up on yesterday’s Ebola discussion – and do not accuse me -this is a new book from respected scientists – it now seems probable that the three great plagues of Europe –
    Justinian,The Black Death and The London Plague were probably caused by Ebola or a close relative. the evidence is strong which I summarise as:

    1. Fact that Scandinavians got the plagues but there are no rat fleas (too cold)_
    2. Quarantine actually worked which would not have been the case with a rat transmitted infection
    3. These plagues spread too fast for Bubonic plague
    4. The reported symptoms including bleeding from the nose are very Ebola like
    5. The presence of a genetic marker in plague affected areas of Europe which emerged after the plague and gives some resistance to many viruses in the same mega family (including AIDS). This is just what to expect in survivors after a huge plague.

  30. Abbott, Dutton should take notice – maybe they will if there is an ebola death in Australia.

    [The Ebola epidemic threatens the “very survival” of societies and could lead to failed states, the World Health Organization (WHO) has warned.

    The outbreak, which has killed some 4,000 people in West Africa, has led to a “crisis for international peace and security”, WHO head Margaret Chan said.

    She also warned of the cost of panic “spreading faster than the virus”.]

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-29603818

  31. Here’s another definition of ‘Shirtfront’ in the article linked by Victoria @1128:
    [Two drunks in a bar holding onto each other’s shirtfront to stop the other from falling down so they could keep on punching.]

  32. [Steve777
    Posted Tuesday, October 14, 2014 at 10:28 am | PERMALINK
    Re Guytaur @1122: Pravda – isn’t that the Russian equivalent of the Daily Telegraph / Herald Sun?]

    Pravda is the official Russian “Government Gazette”. Pretty much the same as “The Australian” under the present government.

  34. dtt

    I note that your summary ignores the mutation of the Plague from flea-borne (bubonic) to aerosol (pneumonic).

    This may or may not be relevant to any relationship between Ebola and other plague events. But it does rather put into question whether the authors have considered the situation fully.

    Bubonic Plague events required rat fleas to get started but, once it happened, did not require rat fleas to spread.

    The usual scenario is that the rats would pick up the plague from host native animals and then transfer the plague to humans via fleas. A change of rat species (cause still not understood) comensal with humans did more than anything else to largely eliminate Bubonic Plague from Europe.

    Northern european populations, where the air was moist and cool, were presumably, more susceptible to the spread of Pneumonic Plague because infected aerosols last longer in such conditions.

    The other curious but unexplained (and considerably larger) anomaly in your post is that Bubonic Plague is bacterial. Ebola is viral. The likelihood that they are closely related, as argued, is questionable.

  35. citizen

    One difficulty I have here is ‘the boy who cried wolf’ stuff.

    Every year around ten million people die of hunger, malaria and tuberculosis.

    No-one is crying out about a civilisational threat or the collapse of states in relation to these diseases.

    Is it because they have become normalised in some way?

    Yet Ebola deaths which have killed only 4,000 are a threat to civilization.

    I acknowledge that I don’t fully understand Ebola but I do feel that I am being FUDDED.

  37. An interesting Email to me?

    Proposals to make politicians shoulder their share of the weight now that the Age of Entitlement is over

    1. Scrap political pensions.
    Politicians can purchase their own retirement plan, just as most other working Australians are expected to do.

    2. Retired politicians (past, present & future) participate in Centrelink.
    A Politician collects a substantial salary while in office but should receive no salary when they’re out of office.
    Terminated politicians under 70 can go get a job or apply for Centrelink unemployment benefits like ordinary Australians.
    Terminated politicians under 70 can negotiate with Centrelink like the rest of the Australian people.

    3. Funds already allocated to the Politicians’ retirement fund be returned immediately to Consolidated Revenue.
    This money is to be used to pay down debt they created which they expect us and our grandchildren to repay for them.

    4. Politicians will no longer vote themselves a pay raise. Politicians pay will rise by the lower of, either the CPI or 3%.

    5. Politicians lose their privileged health care system and participate in the same health care system as ordinary Australian people.
    i.e. Politicians either pay for private cover from their own funds or accept ordinary Medicare.

    6. Politicians must equally abide by all laws they impose on the Australian people.

    7. All contracts with past and present Politicians men/women are void effective 31/12/14.
    The Australian people did not agree to provide perks to Politicians, that burden was thrust upon them.
    Politicians devised all these contracts to benefit themselves.
    Serving in Parliament is an honour not a career.
    The Founding Fathers envisioned citizen legislators, so our politicians should serve their term(s), then go home and back to work.

    If each person contacts a minimum of twenty people, then it will only take three or so days for most Australians to receive the message. Don’t you think it’s time?

    THIS IS HOW YOU FIX Parliament and help bring fairness back into this country!

  38. No Newspoll – again.

    What’s the excuse this week, last week it was because of a public holiday.

    Perhaps the polishing section over at NewsCorp just couldn’t get a shine on it.

  39. [British Parliament Recognizes Palestinian State in Symbolic Vote

    Against a backdrop of growing impatience across Europe with Israeli policy, Britain’s Parliament overwhelmingly passed a nonbinding resolution Monday night to give diplomatic recognition to a Palestinian state. The vote was a symbolic but potent indication of how public opinion has shifted since the breakdown of American-sponsored peace negotiations and the conflict in Gaza this summer.

    Though the outcome of a parliamentary vote, 274 to 12, was not binding on the British government, the debate was the latest evidence of how support for Israeli policies, even among staunch allies of Israel, is giving way to more calibrated positions and in some cases frustrated expressions of opposition to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s stance toward the Palestinians.]

    New York Times

  40. Re Nicholas @1133

    [I wonder how “shirtfront” has been translated into Russian.]

    That’s a good question. When Paul Keating in a lapse of judgement accurately called Malaysian PM Maharthir Mohamad ‘recalcitrant’, the Malaysians translated it to imply that Mr Keating had called Mr Mahathir something like an ‘ill-bred bogan’. The diplomatic rift lasted a couple of years until eventually smoothed over early in Howard’s PMship. As I remember, the then Opposition (to Keating PM) and Murdoch (but I repeat myself) took Mahathir’s side.

  41. Fairly telling that The Daily Telegraph is not pushing the shirt-front brainfart. Ptobably don’t want the Bogans hanging out for a fight at the G20.

  46. I agree with the Government’s push for crowd funding and citizens funding stuff such as the Climate Council and Antarctic scientific research.

    I now call on the Government politicians to get off other peoples’ money and to start getting their pay by way of crowd funding and public subscription.

    Corporations, spivs and developers would, of course, be banned.

    In this way, Abbott and his mates would get what they deserve by way of pay and emoluments.

  47. [God help Abbott if shirt-fronting goes international. ]

    Someone linked a WSJ article last night.

    BBC & Guardian UK are also covering it.

    No doubt there are others as well.

  48. Re BW @1146: the Government should also crowd-fund Direct Inaction, the School Chaplaincy Program and funding for elite private schools.

    On politicians’ entitlements, I don’t think that their pay and conditions while MPs and Ministers are excessive, but post-parliamentary oensions and entitlements certainly are. The big change that I would make would be to subject pensions / retirement lump sums to the normal preservation rules.

  49. 1934pc

    While I think our politicians have been really taking advantage of their perks to the point that it’s detrimental to their image, scrapping all that will only give minimal savings in comparison to the budget.

  50. Boer

    I’m not sure what the agenda is – it might be just media trying to hype a story – but we’ve had a series of over hyped disease threats recently.

    SARS and avian flu spring most readily to mind, but I know I’m missing a couple.

    With avian flu, we were getting reports of every single person in the world who caught it (or who might have caught it). This guarantees a steady stream of headlines, but vastly over rates the threat. (Imagine if every case of measles in the world was reported).

    Yes, there was a chance that if it mutated to become transferable from human to human, avian flu could be very nasty indeed. But you can say the same about a range of other diseases, as well.

    And part of the reason why some of these diseases didn’t live up to their hype was because we’re actually very good at dealing with them – whether that be by quarantine or treatment.

    Which should give some of those angsting about Ebola a little hope.

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