Galaxy: 51-49 to Labor

Galaxy turns in an unsurprising set of results in its first poll in over two months, recording the same shifts since that time as everybody else.

The first federal poll from Galaxy since July is well in line with the trend, as Galaxy so often is, in having Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up three to 42% and Labor down one to 36%, with the Greens on 12% (up one) and Palmer United on 4% (down three). Further questions found 62% support for Australian involvement in air strikes against Islamic State, with 21% opposed, and 75% considering the threat of a terrorist attack on Australian soil to be “real”, versus 16% who thought otherwise.

UPDATE (6/10): Roy Morgan gives the Coalition its best result since February, its primary vote up 1.5% to 40% with Labor down 2.5% to 35%. The Greens are steady at 12%, and Palmer United are down half a point to 3.5%, their weakest result since January. On two-party preferred, Labor’s lead narrows from 54.5-45.5 to 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences, and from 53.5-46.5 to 51.5-48.5 on preference flows from the previous election. The poll was conducted over the last two weekends by face-to-face and SMS, from a sample of 3151.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

984 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 14 of 20
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  2. zoomster@650

    Of course, the reason there aren’t as many posters here today is that all those who criticised the new security laws have been rounded up and taken away for re education.

    Just as they thought….

    😆 😆 😆

  4. MTBW@623

    Raaraa

    crikey…its quiet here these days


    Could it be that some people are ticked off about being put down by other posters who think they are smarter than everyone else?

    I think Zoidlord was treated appallingly by the usual subjects.

    Possibly.

  5. zoomster@650

    Of course, the reason there aren’t as many posters here today is that all those who criticised the new security laws have been rounded up and taken away for re education.

    Just as they thought….

    I guess I’ve been hiding well. At least for now.

  9. I too liked the contributions by zoidlord. Informative on the NBN and social security issues especially disability ones

  12. bw

    I hope the legal action sees Hird in our equivalent of debtors prison. It seems to me he is doing a Lance Armstrong form of denial

  18. Ummm… it is understood that Hird had been advised that if the Board gave Hird the Heave Ho he could have had their guts for garters for contempt of court.

    The Essendon pipples are not playing nice.

  19. “@KerryOBrien4C: It’s taken a bit longer than Orwell’s 1984 but Big Brother is here and he’s not leaving: #4Corners privacy and the intelligence community”

  20. Well, I tried to read Ben Sandilands’ article in Crikey, but not being a subscriber I could get no further than (I paraphrase) “They’re still looking in the same spot where they haven’t found anything before”.

    Crikey and I have a fractured relationship. Every time I try to sign on (in the spirit of supporting this platform with some of my meagre funds) it tells me either:

    (a) I was successful (but I still can’t access anything),
    (b) My name and password is already in use (so bugger off).

    So, I guess I’ll just have to take William’s word for it: despite wasting millions on searching for MH-370 just off Perth (in relative terms), they’re going to give it another crack in pretty-well the same place, this time, no doubt, with complete success as the only possible outcome. Like all the other times.

    I stand, chastened, bowed and bloodied.

  21. bb

    [Although official confirmation hasn’t been made, the exhaustive and, if necessary, long-term deep-sea search for the wreckage of missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 is due to get underway in the southern Indian Ocean south-west of Perth today.

    The first of the deep-sea search ships, GO Phoenix, was due on station yesterday, but its instrumented “towfish” and its 10,000 metres of cabling take time to deploy and manage. The device has to be raised and lowered with high precision to maintain optimum position above the only recently mapped ridges, gorges and other obstacles of a complex sea floor that exceeds a depth of 6000 metres in places.

    But there is no doubt anymore that somewhere in the southern Indian Ocean, maybe 1800 kilometres from Perth, maybe as far out as 2700 kilometres, lies the wreckage of missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370, which was carrying 239 passengers and crew. The plane crashed into the ocean after inexplicably diverting from its intended flight path between Kuala Lumpur and Beijing only 40 minutes into a flight that was due to last almost six hours.

    Analysis of satellite relayed signals from a data reporting system on the Boeing 777-200ER and an unsuccessful call to a Malaysia Airlines satellite phone, which was on standby mode in the cockpit, confirm that the flight eventually flew south for hours into the empty skies over the southern Indian Ocean before its fuel ran out.

    The latest analysis suggests a tight, high-speed spiral preceded an impact with the ocean surface some seven hours and 39 minutes after takeoff.

    However, estimating the exact impact point is beset with uncertainty because that Search Strategy unit, which is funded by, and reports to, Malaysia and advises the Australian-managed search effort, doesn’t know exactly what speed and altitude settings were flown by MH370 on its final long southerly path, nor even the precise point, somewhere north of Sumatra, where it changed course.

    GO Phoenix is trawling a submarine world where no sunlight falls, where there is no day or night, and whose features were unknown in any detail until they were mapped by bathymetric survey to prepare the way for a methodical and high-resolution search, supported by instruments that can detect even traces of jet fuel in those depths.

    Down in this cold, high-pressure and timeless vast darkness is the hard wreckage of the engines, cabins, cockpit, undercarriage and “black box” data and sound recording devices, and possibly some remains of those on board.

    After the wreckage of Air France flight AF447 was found in the mid-Atlantic in 2011, 22 months after it crashed, killing all 228 people on board, the data recorders, critical parts of its structure, and 104 bodies were retrieved from an abyssal plain at a depth of 3980 metres.

    Finding MH370 could take a day, or a year or more — that is, provided it hasn’t been buried under a landslide, dislodged by striking a cliff face, or covered up by the effects of a sea-quake.

    The disappearance of MH370 is the most baffling mystery in the history of flight.]

  22. [“@KerryOBrien4C: It’s taken a bit longer than Orwell’s 1984 but Big Brother is here and he’s not leaving: #4Corners privacy and the intelligence community”]

    Don’t you just lerrrrve these media whingers? They don’t give a toss until what Abbott does affects them.

    As a distinct possibility, the wailing and gnashing of teeth comes about because they’ve only just twigged that News Corp and Ray Hadley will get all the exclusives, and the rest of the media will be left in ABC, tabloid news and Fairfax offices to indulge in their usual pastime of having to subsist on out-of-date press releases.

    If the non-News media uncovers anything juicy they will be:

    (a) Vilified by Chris Mitchell for unpatriotic behaviour;

    (b) Sent to eat porridge for up to 10 years in Goulbourn Supermax with the rest of the Zombie Jihadi Terrorists (can you imagine a journalistic threat to the National Security being sent to grow lettuces at an insecure prison farm? No? So it’s off to Supermax for them for sure).

  25. Agenda panel is discussing the way in which they are irrelevant to information dissemination except when it suits the interests of, in this instance, the defence establishment.

    Apparently the Chief of Defence announced our two sorties by way of social media this morning.

  29. Given how long it took them to find HMAS Sydney – as big and as ferrous as it was and where they knew within a few minutes of latitude and longitude where it went down – as soon as it became clear that they had no real handle on where MH370 went down it seemed clear to me that finding the aircraft would be basically impossible.

  30. The intelligent creationist has, in my not so humble opinion, messed up. Just when the most delicate blossoms are hanging on the bough (ornamental cherries the most obvious) we get spring gales.

    Oh, and having Bushfire and Boerwar conversing on the same page takes me back a year or two. Noice.

  31. new Morgan Poll

    ALP 53 (-1.5)
    LNP 47 (+1.5_

    Primaries

    LNP – 40
    ALP – 35
    GRN – 12
    OTH – 13

    3,151 sample, last 2 weekends

  34. [The disappearance of MH370 is the most baffling mystery in the history of flight.]

    And looking in the wrong place is bound to make it even more baffling.

    There was some recent evidence that MH-370 lay further out than where they are looking.

    It came from Curtin university, which has undersea subsonic monitoring stations on the coast of Western Australia. In conjunction with an American listening service (to help nut out submarines and nuclear testing, I believe) at Cape Leeuwin, Curtin university boffins mapped out a likely path from which the sound came.

    It was presented as a line of highest probability, surrounded by a confidence zone either side. Interestingly, the line of highest probability, as well as passing through other areas of the Indian Ocean passed precisely between the southern Maldives and Diego Garcia.

    Articles here:
    http://news.curtin.edu.au/media-releases/curtin-researchers-search-acoustic-evidence-mh370/

    http://news.curtin.edu.au/events/sounds-deep-search-mh370/

    Diagram here: https://www.flickr.com/photos/106331196@N07/14155196430/in/set-72157644591711570

  35. [Apparently the Chief of Defence announced our two sorties by way of social media this morning.]

    Such reticence is perfectly understandable. “Operational matters” and so forth. Can’t have Jihadis with RPGs shooting down our F18s as they carry out their dangerous task of dropping bombs from 20,000 feet onto white SUVs in the middle of an empty desert.

  36. It is a public holiday in NSW, ACT, QLD and SA. NSW, ACT and QLD of course enjoy today to recover from the grand final the night before — SA just comes along for the ride.

    😉

    Hope you have all enjoyed your holiday Monday.

  38. BB and others

    For what it’s worth, I do not countenance most conspiracy theories – but my view is that when they do occur, they are not nearly as organised or pre-meditated as theorists would think. It is usually the response to a particular incident that is the conspiracy of sorts, by a class of persons who are trained/there to act/respond in a certain way.

    I remember seeing this quote from some Diana conspiracy movie and it summed up my view of how most “conspiracies” by “the powerful” occur:

    [Unlawful Killing is not about a conspiracy before the crash, but a provable conspiracy after the crash. A conspiracy organized not by a single scheming arch-fiend, but collectively by the British establishment—judges, lawyers, politicians, police chiefs, secret services, even newspaper editors—all of whom have been appointed to their positions because they are “a safe pair of hands.”

    Just as compass needles all point north without being told to, so these people instinctively know what is expected of them when the state’s interests are under threat and they act accordingly, quietly suppressing uncomfortable evidence or undermining the credibility of witnesses whose evidence contradicts the official narrative.”

    – See more at: http://www.opposingviews.com/i/princess-diana-death-conspiracy-theory-film-debuts-at-cannes#sthash.4pByx54m.dpuf ]

    I do not doubt that much of the MH-370 response fell into this sort of thing by the powers that be across the region.

    Diego Garcia is probably a red herring if anything, in my view.

  40. [Darren

    What was the excuse for the holiday?]

    Labour Day!

    Solidarity forever – that sort of thing, I think.

    I think the Taswegians used to call it “8 hours day” or something, referring to the union-led battle for an 8 hour work day, rather than a winter’s day with 8 hours sunlight 😉

    Though they celebrate it at some other time.

    I think Victoria celebrates it in March for some reason — and WA, well I cannot imagine they would even have a Labour Day – it is probably Liberal Day there. 😉

  42. Bushfire Bill

    Get your arske into gear, fire up the 3D printer and whip up the PB lounge a comet. 🙂

    [Files to ‘print your own’ Rosetta comet

    Europe’s space agency (Esa) has finally released a proper model for the shape of Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko.

    The organisation’s Rosetta mission will try to put a small robot on the surface of this “ice mountain” on 12 November.

    …….All this said, those with access to the necessary software and a 3D printer can now turn out a desktop depiction of the most famous comet in the Solar System.

    The relevant files are available in .wrl and .obj formats.
    ]
    http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-29482548
    .
    .wrl version
    http://sci.esa.int/science-e/www/object/doc.cfm?fobjectid=54727
    .
    obj version
    http://sci.esa.int/science-e/www/object/doc.cfm?fobjectid=54726

  43. Too late for that once the industry is gone it is gone. Just like ship building and all the rest. Quarrying for a pennies is our future.

    [
    Boerwar
    Posted Monday, October 6, 2014 at 1:50 pm | Permalink

    If it drops to 66 cents we might be able to go back to constructing cars for a profit.
    ]

  48. [The relevant files are available in .wrl and .obj formats.]

    Damn! I can only use STL files. I suppose there’s a convertor somewhere, but I’m buggered if I know where.

    (looking… looking…)

    Ah ha! I have an .OBJ import utility in some 3D s/w on my PC.

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