Galaxy: 51-49 to Labor

Galaxy turns in an unsurprising set of results in its first poll in over two months, recording the same shifts since that time as everybody else.

The first federal poll from Galaxy since July is well in line with the trend, as Galaxy so often is, in having Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up three to 42% and Labor down one to 36%, with the Greens on 12% (up one) and Palmer United on 4% (down three). Further questions found 62% support for Australian involvement in air strikes against Islamic State, with 21% opposed, and 75% considering the threat of a terrorist attack on Australian soil to be “real”, versus 16% who thought otherwise.

UPDATE (6/10): Roy Morgan gives the Coalition its best result since February, its primary vote up 1.5% to 40% with Labor down 2.5% to 35%. The Greens are steady at 12%, and Palmer United are down half a point to 3.5%, their weakest result since January. On two-party preferred, Labor’s lead narrows from 54.5-45.5 to 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences, and from 53.5-46.5 to 51.5-48.5 on preference flows from the previous election. The poll was conducted over the last two weekends by face-to-face and SMS, from a sample of 3151.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

984 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 15 of 20
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  1. [Australian paediatricians think mandatory detention is child abuse]

    I think leaky boats filled with children is also child abuse.

  2. [Did I just see what I thought I saw on the channel 9 news.

    Rugby League fans always bring class to an event]

    I don’t watch Australian TV news.

    Care to elaborate?

  3. [Darren Laver
    Posted Monday, October 6, 2014 at 6:09 pm | PERMALINK
    Australian paediatricians think mandatory detention is child abuse

    I think leaky boats filled with children is also child abuse.]

    We are not putting children into boats but we are doing mandatory detention.

  4. Darren Laver
    [I think leaky boats filled with children is also child abuse.]
    I think you’ll find that the children in our detention centres came off leaky boats.

  5. [ We are not putting children into boats but we are doing mandatory detention. ]

    Mad Lib, Its not so much the mandatory detention as the disgusting conditions, lack of health care, and not protecting them from sexual and other abuse while they are in mandatory detention that’s the issue. If we are going to do mandatry detention it needs to be done humanely, and that is what is not happening at the moment.

  6. In my grandmother’s day it was known as “8 hour Day”
    This caused me confusion when I was young as I could not work out how a day could only be 8 hours long

  7. A south’s supporter in a “interviewer in front of crowd” scene decided to reform his clothing not, as I initially thoughts to moon the camera, but to show his endowment.

  8. Having download the Asteroid file, and rendered it into something my printer can print, I hereby decline to do so.

    To the 3D printing fraternity, actually printing something is actually considered rather vulgar.

    Just knowing you could have done it if you wanted to is sufficient for the pure of heart.

  9. [A south’s supporter in a “interviewer in front of crowd” scene decided to reform his clothing not, as I initially thoughts to moon the camera, but to show his endowment.]

    Glory, glory to South Sydney as they say!

    Was this live?!

  13. My ex-jesuit brother in law also tells me that refusing sanctuary to children is child abuse.
    I asked him who he thought the children were and he said “orphans”. This may be the case but if they are they are orphans with at least $10,000.

    These children have been sent as the beachhead for their relatives and any exemptions made for them will result in a veritable Children’s crusade with probably the same result

  15. Yes it was live. The interviewer had no idea what was happening behind him. The supporter looked like he needed knee pads to prevent serious urological injury.

  16. [imacca
    …..Mad Lib, Its not so much the mandatory detention as the disgusting conditions, lack of health care, and not protecting them from sexual and other abuse while they are in mandatory detention that’s the issue. If we are going to do mandatry detention it needs to be done humanely, and that is what is not happening at the moment.]

    bad conditions, lack of healthcare and not protecting them from sexual and other abuse is very much part of the problem. Dr Peter Young, the Chief Psychiatrist for the detention centres says very bluntly that this is a direct consequence of this sort of policy:

    [Dr Peter Young, who for three years was the chief psychiatrist responsible for the care of asylum seekers in detention, said confining hundreds of people in an institution like a detention centre created an environment for sexual abuse and illness to occur.

    “It creates situations where sexual abuse is inevitable and it’s happened everywhere around the world,” he said. “You can’t create a detention policy like we have without knowing this – it’s wilfully ignorant.”]

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/oct/06/mandatory-detention-children-abusive-australian-paediatricians

  17. BB

    How big was the file ? Another “excuse” for not printing is that it is not the HD version that ESA is in the process of putting together.

  20. How long can Abbott keep the budget and bad economic news at bay? He has shelved all bad news stories for some reason.

    They will return.

  21. [Yes it was live. The interviewer had no idea what was happening behind him. The supporter looked like he needed knee pads to prevent serious urological injury.]

    Wow – this will be worse than “nipple gate” in the US haha

  23. rua

    Abbott has not ‘shelved’ his slowmo budget train wreck issues. He has put them in one of two drawers marked:

    (1) It’s Labor’s fault.
    (2) Sack Hockey.

  24. [bemused
    ….Must make you proud to support the Abbott / Morrison gang]

    As you know Paul Keating (ALP), Kevin Rudd (ALP) and Julia Gillard (ALP) all supported mandatory detention. This is what Australian paediatricians are calling child abuse (as the AMA did several years ago).

    To try to conflate this as being just a Liberal Party policy demonstrates for you good and evil don’t exist- its all just about the ALP TPP vote.

  25. As long as Labor is committed to stopping boats, the idea that these detention centres would be nicer under a Labor government is a joke. As a form of deterrence, these camps must necessarily offer a worse alternative than the risk of death at sea.

    Mod
    [Dr Peter Young, the Chief Psychiatrist for the detention centres says very bluntly that this is a direct consequence of this sort of policy:]
    Who would have thought that you would ever be on the same page as Psephos :P.

  26. Mad Lib@724

    bemused
    ….Must make you proud to support the Abbott / Morrison gang


    As you know Paul Keating (ALP), Kevin Rudd (ALP) and Julia Gillard (ALP) all supported mandatory detention. This is what Australian paediatricians are calling child abuse (as the AMA did several years ago).

    To try to conflate this as being just a Liberal Party policy demonstrates for you good and evil don’t exist- its all just about the ALP TPP vote.

    There is a vast qualitative difference between whet happened under Labor and what Morrison is doing.

    Any you know it.

  29. That type of rugby league behaviour would never happen from My Sharks supporters.

    We have never won anything ……… yet (except the Amco Cup).

    Another year ticks by …. please mark up 48 next season.

  30. 725

    Punitive detention regimes are not about stopping the boats but stopping the people who take the boats. The boats could be put out of business, but allowing anybody who can buy a plane ticket to Australia to fly here, without any punitive detention regime.

  31. [bemused
    …..There is a vast qualitative difference between whet happened under Labor and what Morrison is doing.

    Any you know it.]

    I know it would make you feel better to think that and so you have decided to think that.

    All I can say is best of luck with that. The Conscience usually sees right through sophistry.

  38. The problem has already been created somewhere else on earth, if it can’t be dealt with at the source and if other countries (such as Australia) argue that do no have the capacity to deal with it, what’s left are so-called solution that simply shify misery from one form into another.

    If Australia is collectively arguing that it does not have the capacity to deal with it, then any form of action we take will be an inevitable and unpleasant non-solution. If you’re going to argue that, you should at least accept responsibility for the consequences of our collective decision instead of trying to make political hay out them.

  39. [Tom the first and best
    Posted Monday, October 6, 2014 at 6:36 pm | PERMALINK
    725

    Punitive detention regimes are not about stopping the boats but stopping the people who take the boats. The boats could be put out of business, but allowing anybody who can buy a plane ticket to Australia to fly here, without any punitive detention regime.]

    Oh but they do fly here and ask for refuge.

    Indeed, since 2001, 62k people have arrived by plane and applied for a protection visa. Less than 39k people have arrived by boat and applied for a protection visa.

    We don’t have a collective paranoia about the plane arrivals though, so hardly anybody knows that there have been more by plane than boat.

    http://www.refugeecouncil.org.au/r/stat-as.php

  41. Fatwa man is a local (i think indigenous). He was deported last time he went to Saudi

    Maybe he is just an AFL fan

  42. Oh….and for those in a mad sweaty panic about all these hordes coming to Australia by boat, have a little think about this factoid.

    Q: If the rate of arrivals of people seeking asylum in Australia by boat since 2001 continues indefinitely, how long would it take for Australia to reach the number of undocumented people currently in the USA?

    A: Over 3,000 years

  43. Sailing on Sydney Harbour today we saw a seal repeatable coming up for air only 10-20m off the boat & near Cockatoo Island which is quite a long way in. Haven’t seen that before.

  49. Of course everything the difference between the US AND Australia is what the Americans do with their illegal immigrants. Californian and Texan agriculture is only viable because of Mexicans on starvation wages. At the end of the season they are rounded up and taken south of the Rio Grande.

    Today’s holiday reminds us that this is not acceptable in Australia.

  50. My Gough sport story – sorry if I have posted before!! senior moment

    One day circa 1973/4 I was wondering around Sydney art gallery on a Sunday 9as you do. Suddenly in strides Gough racing around the gallery like he was in a real hurry.

    Oddly enough the news that night reliably advised us all that he was at a Soccer match. Hmmmm!!!!!!!

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