The first federal poll from Galaxy since July is well in line with the trend, as Galaxy so often is, in having Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up three to 42% and Labor down one to 36%, with the Greens on 12% (up one) and Palmer United on 4% (down three). Further questions found 62% support for Australian involvement in air strikes against Islamic State, with 21% opposed, and 75% considering the threat of a terrorist attack on Australian soil to be “real”, versus 16% who thought otherwise.
UPDATE (6/10): Roy Morgan gives the Coalition its best result since February, its primary vote up 1.5% to 40% with Labor down 2.5% to 35%. The Greens are steady at 12%, and Palmer United are down half a point to 3.5%, their weakest result since January. On two-party preferred, Labor’s lead narrows from 54.5-45.5 to 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences, and from 53.5-46.5 to 51.5-48.5 on preference flows from the previous election. The poll was conducted over the last two weekends by face-to-face and SMS, from a sample of 3151.
Slip sliding away – burkey draws nearer and nearer
Galaxy lives!
Hi William. I think the Greens are only up one since the last Galaxy in July. They are up four since the last election.
http://www.galaxyresearch.com.au/2325-july/
23/25 July 2014
L/NP 39%
ALP 37%
Greens 11%
PUP 7%
Other 6%
The Coalition primary is 42. Haven’t seen the ALP primary yet.
From previous thread.
bemused@1142 on BludgerTrack: 50.6-49.4 to Labor | The Poll Bludger
[
Raaraa
Posted Saturday, October 4, 2014 at 9:48 pm | Permalink
…
Is it best not for us to talk about, or the Japanese? As far as I know, in the Japanese school curriculum, they don’t talk about the war much at all.
]
The war. They are a major trading partner; I have friends; they really are a nice bunch. I reconcile it all by having the view; the military and people are a different issue. To claim the military fought with honor in my view is going a little too far.
Hmmm… 75% considering the threat of a terrorist attack on Australian soil to be “real”.
Which really doesn’t tell us a lot.
I consider the threat of lightning killing people “real” too and that is based on experience. But I also consider it a low risk to any individual.
Edwina StJohn@1
So even your loudest nationalist/terrorist/asylum seeker dog whistling is not enough to bring the LNP back to level pegging?
No wonder your lot are trying to resurrect the Shorten rape allegations. The economy is still tanking, the budget is still stalled, our national debt is still climbing faster than ever, unemployment is rising, and you apparently have no clue what else to do.
Kevin – as Galaxy polls sometimes hits the tabliods with no chart and its not all in the article text, we may not get all the stats until it goes up on the Galaxy site, maybe Tuesday?
As usual with Galaxy polls commissioned by Murdoch tabloids it is necessary to see the exact form of the issues questions so that you know whether the well has been merely poisoned as opposed to blown up. 🙂
Team Idiot:
I spoke too soon…
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Galaxy Poll Primary Votes: L/NP 42 (+3) ALP 36 (-1) GRN 12 (+1) PUP 4 (-3) #auspol
10:01 PM – 4 Oct 2014]
It must be so sad for the Liberals; they have played the terrorist under the bed card; Berka’s to the kiddies corner; spent billions on military junk; thrown another billion at dragging us into a war that has nothing to do with us (and like all wars can go pear shape) and what have they got to show for it. One percent.
[Player One
Posted Saturday, October 4, 2014 at 9:59 pm | Permalink
….
No wonder your lot are trying to resurrect the Shorten rape allegations. The economy is still tanking, the budget is still stalled, our national debt is still climbing faster than ever, unemployment is rising, and you apparently have no clue what else to do.
]
Another dog whistle; some more mud. It’s they best they have to offer; it is not a good reason to vote for the clowns.
Galaxy Poll
Primary Votes: L/NP 42 (+3) ALP 36 (-1) GRN 12 (+1) PUP 4 (-3)
Thinking now about the Islamic State, or IS as it is also known. Do you support or oppose the Australian Air Force joining other countries in air strikes against IS?
Support 62 Oppose 21
In your opinion, is the threat of a terrorist attack on Australian soil real?
Yes 75 No 16
[In your opinion, is the threat of a terrorist attack on Australian soil real?
Yes 75 No 16]
Hence why the burqa madness is working for the govt.
So they are moving from labor to the greens; oh so tiny, could be nothing more than a polling error. From the PUP to the Liberals,, maybe real. Hardly call this an endorsement for the drums of war. One big yarn would be the best description. . Billions down the drain; no result; what next?
Thanks Leroy, all corrected now.
frednk
[ Billions down the drain; no result; what next? ]
They will escalate again. It is all they know how to do.
frednk
[The war. They are a major trading partner; I have friends; they really are a nice bunch. I reconcile it all by having the view; the military and people are a different issue. To claim the military fought with honor in my view is going a little too far.]
I have to agree. The Japanese friends I have made here are no different from people of other nationality I have met. I don’t think any of them wants to talk about the war, and for any of us to raise the issue to them is a class A arse.
Is the threat of a terrorist attack real? Yes, of course. Is the risk to oneself greater than that of beaking struck by lighning? Doubtful. Is it greater than that of dying from falling at home? No. And it is also very small compared to the risk from road accidents.
frednk
[So they are moving from labor to the greens; oh so tiny, could be nothing more than a polling error. From the PUP to the Liberals,, maybe real.]
I don’t think it’s as easy as that. Not all PUP loses have flowed to the Liberals. Could be a combination of Libs, Labor and others for their respective reasons. Meanwhile some of Labor voters have gone to the Greens, and a few others are simplistic voters who could only think “Labor or Liberals?”.
“Thinking now about the Islamic State”. But it isn’t one yet, it only pretends to be.
William, Palmer United are down 3 since the last poll in July. PUP were on 8 in the May poll.
Steve777
[Is the threat of a terrorist attack real? Yes, of course. Is the risk to oneself greater than that of beaking struck by lighning? Doubtful. Is it greater than that of dying from falling at home? No. And it is also very small compared to the risk from road accidents.]
And meanwhile many more a falling harm to health issues, including mental health issues.
Speaking of which, Mental Health week is here.
Also, this website is weird: http://www.mentalhealthweek.com.au/
Okay, corrected properly now.
I have the Coalition primary of 42 as the highest published Coalition primary in any poll since mid-April when Essential published 43. (There was a ReachTEL with 41.6 though, which would have rounded to 42.)
Raaraa@25
LOL! This must be where Abbott buys his Hi Vis gear!
[
Raaraa
Posted Saturday, October 4, 2014 at 10:11 pm | Permalink
..
a class A arse.
]
I don’t think Abbott is a class A arse; his problem seems to be he only sees the world as goodies and baddies.
(((
Going to buy subs from them; must be goodies; been at war with them; if goodies must have fought with honor.
))))
Not quite bright enough to keep his mouth shut.
[ 50 years ago there was a trend for Muslim women to become westernised. Attaturk banned the scarf in public buildings and Nasser certainly discouraged it
The question has to be asked why did this trend reverse – was it Western and particularly US foreign polict that seemed unwelcoming? ]
Having discussed this issue years ago with a friend from Malaysia its got little or nothing to do with the US, and lots to do with cashed up Saudis spreading the conservative desert tribal Wahhabist version of Islam.
Oh, and has anyone yet come up with a plausible explanation of why ESJ is such an obnoxious twit??
Frednk #13 i reckon Abbott would be pretty satisfied with 49/51 at this stage given his first 12 months is close to the worst start for any government I can remember.
[
davidwh
Posted Saturday, October 4, 2014 at 10:42 pm | Permalink
Frednk #13 i reckon Abbott would be pretty satisfied with 49/51 at this stage given his first 12 months is close to the worst start for any government I can remember.
]
A lot of gold burnt for not much outcome. In the end someone is going to notice that this bunch are economic vandals.
[i reckon Abbott would be pretty satisfied with 49/51 at this stage given his first 12 months]
I reckon Abbott would be waking around 4AM as most stressed out boozers do & screaming of my f’ing god at the ceiling.
a class A arse.
Maybe that was the basis of rating when Abbott’s ministers all got an A or an A+.
imacca@30
[
—
Oh, and has anyone yet come up with a plausible explanation of why ESJ is such an obnoxious twit?? ]
Some things just are. 😐
History is a guide
\_____________
With the notable exception of WW2,Australian support for overseas commitments tends to fall quickly after the inital jingoistic./patriotic hysteria fades
In 1914 people were mislead into suporting thw war in remote Europe,but only 18 months later the cruel British response to the Easter Rising in Dublin saw the Irish catholic community led in Melb by Dr Mannix turn sharply against the war…and under the leadership of the left led by the remarkable IWW there was a majority who voted NO in the first Conscription referemdum in late 1916
Hughes destroyed the Labor Govt after that but in 1917,the anti-war mood strengthened aided by the remarkable news in March of the first Russian Revolution,and then people were emboldened by the constant reports..and events from Russia which lead to the Oct. Revolution…and a strike wave across the country,especially in NSW and the defeat of the 2nd Referemdum on Conscription in late 1917…by then there was almost a revolutionary mood …a thing quite unforeseen in 1914
The Australian response to the war is quite remarkable,when seen against the compliance of most in the UK ,NZ and USA,and is one of the great events in our history
In recent times the anti-vietnam movement helped elect Whitlam and there was never support for Howard’s war and his lies in Iraq,not did people care about Afgan’stan
I think this event will meet a similar public reaction ..Abbott will have to keep the fear leval high..with Murdoch’s aid of course…the most evil warmonger of the age …if there was a War Crimes Tribunal for warmongers sureky Murdoch would go
A lot of gold burnt for not much outcome. In the end someone is going to notice that this bunch are economic vandals.
But how does Labor get that message to those who get all of their news on how the country is travelling from the Daily Rupert and commercial TV and radio.
[Thinking now about the Islamic State, or IS as it is also known. Do you support or oppose the Australian Air Force joining other countries in air strikes against IS?
Support 62 Oppose 21
In your opinion, is the threat of a terrorist attack on Australian soil real?
Yes 75 No 16]
This is classic push polling IMHO.
Start with a negative frame – Islamic State. Follow with a mild remedy – join other countries in airstrikes..
Even so, the 62 support is staggering.
Now if the question was something like:
Thinking about the previous 2 failed wars in Iraq which led to hundreds of thousands of deaths, millions of refugees, and led to increased terror threat to this day, all based on lies told by Liberal governments and warmongering hysteria from Murdoch organs, do you agree with Australia going to war again based on more lies from Tony Abbott?
We might get a different number.
Imacca …30 why is ESJ is such a twit”
__________________________
I hold to the theory that he/she is not a person but a trool created by a bunch of Young Libs at Menzies House who take turns to write his/her nonsense to annoy people here….
just ignore him/her
[Abbott will have to keep the fear lev’e’l high]
There is no appetite in Australia for another foray into Iraq. Abbott has misread the tea leaves & this will be his ending.
Apparently “trool” is a real word, sort of: http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=trool
sprocket_@38
It’s not push-polling at all. Push-polling is basically conducting a negative propaganda session under the guise of a poll and without even caring about the result.
At worst it can be argued to be what I call “skew-polling” where the preamble is worded in such a way as to alter the poll result. That said I’ve seen more defective wordings from pollsters who weren’t even trying. IS is a real entity and it’s not a surprise that most Australians support air strikes against it since that means we are Doing Something at what seems to be minimal risk.
My only gripe is with the reference to it as “the Islamic State” which makes it sound a more significant and settled force than it is.
A call for a change in New Yorl
____________
‘In a month New Yorkers will vote for a new state governor,and many other position
Given the look-alike of the Democrats and the Republicans and the corruption of both parties, the Greens who only polled 1,5% last time are now running at 9% …a remarkable level of support for left policies in the universaly right-wing politics of the USA..and supported by a coalition of progressive groups in the city and state
http://socialistworker.org/2014/10/01/greens-gain-steam-in-new-york
deblonay@43
So the Trots are supporting the LOONS.
Who would have thought! 😆
Re Trools
_________
In many old children’s stories and often in old school readers,…..(in Vic too ).. a story .called “The Three Billy Goats Gruff” told of the three goats who are menaced by a trool or monster who lives under a bridge which they must cross
I think it’s of scandanavian origin
Kids always loved the story
[ Apparently “trool” is a real word, sort of: http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=trool ]
Amazing, been around since 07 as well.
[ poor trool! somebody please wipe her chin …… ]
And so appropriate for ESJ as well. 🙂
Kevin Bonham
[My only gripe is with the reference to it as “the Islamic State” which makes it sound a more significant and settled force than it is.]
It is amusing that when this ephemeral group of islamic militants changes its name, the media dutifuly report… yet in Anglo countries the Anglo media always calls Catholics (big C) “Roman” Catholics.
Just noting the inconsistency.
‘Open for business’
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/oct/03/australias-investment-in-renewable-energy-slumps-70-in-one-year
lefty
“open for business” is meant to be understood as “open for business to our owners and patrons: i.e. Coal, Murdoch, Big Banks, etc etc… and closed for business to everyone else.
bemused
[So the Trots are supporting the LOONS.
Who would have thought! :lol:]
Once upon a time, in an age far far ago the Labourites used to support building a better society……. but now you/they sneer at anyone who wants change from the neo-liberal dystopic vision.