Galaxy: 51-49 to Labor

Galaxy turns in an unsurprising set of results in its first poll in over two months, recording the same shifts since that time as everybody else.

The first federal poll from Galaxy since July is well in line with the trend, as Galaxy so often is, in having Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up three to 42% and Labor down one to 36%, with the Greens on 12% (up one) and Palmer United on 4% (down three). Further questions found 62% support for Australian involvement in air strikes against Islamic State, with 21% opposed, and 75% considering the threat of a terrorist attack on Australian soil to be “real”, versus 16% who thought otherwise.

UPDATE (6/10): Roy Morgan gives the Coalition its best result since February, its primary vote up 1.5% to 40% with Labor down 2.5% to 35%. The Greens are steady at 12%, and Palmer United are down half a point to 3.5%, their weakest result since January. On two-party preferred, Labor’s lead narrows from 54.5-45.5 to 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences, and from 53.5-46.5 to 51.5-48.5 on preference flows from the previous election. The poll was conducted over the last two weekends by face-to-face and SMS, from a sample of 3151.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

984 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Re New York…Bemused
    _________
    The Greens are getting support from some unions who are sick of the Democrats and Obama’s total failure to honour any of his promises to the unions re their rights simply to operate
    Also the Greens are doing very well,as they did in early times among the many neglected and ignored ethnic groups in New York ,like hispanic ad middle easterners …in a city where the Democrats are quite dominated by the jewish vote ,also teachers who are alarmed at moves to “privatise”state ” schools ,and slash funding for schools patronised by the kids of the many poor ..the worst of such cases do line the shop doorways and parks after dark”’signs of dire overty everywhere in my last visit there

    On one occassion we were puzzled at a long queue off Broadway…it was for renewal of “food stamps(really cards)” cards for the low to destitute people,to get some basic foodstuffs…and an army of beggars too for whom Obama has done nothing
    The two parties are run by wealthy professional politicians who have no links with the lower classes,who exist in what is probably the richest city on the planet

    The contrast is seen on 5th Avenue where the great expensive name-brand stores often have by late evening people sleeping in the doorways and begging as you pass

  2. Swamprat…re progressive policies
    _________
    In Illinois(Chicago) the last two Democrat Governors have BTH gone to jail on seperate charges of corruption charges during their terms of office…one for trying to “sell” the Senate seat vacated by Obama to a secret bidder…I couldn’t believe the corruption Chicago which is basicaakly a one party regime,with very dubiuous voting procedures)

    In 1960 the notorious Mayor Daley in Chicago… rigged the presidential votes in Cook Country which gave Kennedy a close election victory

    In the USA the LOONs or the TROts et al.. might seem better than whatever else is on offer
    Recently Socialist candidate won a key seat on the Seattle council..in a Democrat key seat ..remarkable

    In Chicago Daley’s son was rescently mayor for a record term too ..and Obama came from this group ????…so not much hope there

  3. Bronwyn Bishop goes after new international honour
    |_________________
    with the aid of Joel Fitzgibbon and Michael Danby… Bishop if off overseas…to promote woman in high places(but not with a Burka)

  4. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Millions of Aussies face significant credit stress.
    http://www.smh.com.au/money/borrowing/default-looms-for-millions-of-australians-20141002-10p59k.html
    Leaked documents show child abuse and self harm on Nauru.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/oct/04/nauru-detention-centre-staff-persistent-child-abuse-self-harm
    The insidious and powerful influence of Credlin
    http://www.independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/abbotts-worms-pynes-vacation-and-credlins-domination,6963
    Rampant pork barrelling with federal crime security measures. The Auditor General is having a look after Feeney likened it to the “regional rorts” effort of Howard.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/anticrime-prevention-funds-mostly-allocated-to-coalition-electorates-20141004-10q9nh.html
    Abbott’s dance of the seven veils.
    http://www.independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/the-bride-stripped-burqa-the-dance-of-the-seven-veils,6966
    The three worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/10/04/the-three-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-77/
    One of the perils of having one’s product manufactured overseas.
    http://www.smh.com.au/it-pro/business-it/is-that-an-ipone-smartphones-are-the-new-fake-bags-of-counterfeiting-20141004-10pxba.html
    The questions you were too nervous to ask in case ASIO was listening.
    http://www.smh.com.au/it-pro/business-it/is-that-an-ipone-smartphones-are-the-new-fake-bags-of-counterfeiting-20141004-10pxba.html
    Bill Shorten asks us to stand up to bigots. He also had a shot at some MPs and their intemperate remarks.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/thousands-in-lakemba-celebrate-muslim-festival-of-sacrifice-and-feasting-20141004-10qatc.html

  5. Section 2 . . .

    You’ve gotta be joking!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/parents-billed-1000-for-primary-school-camps-20141004-10q136.html
    Bishop’s burqa bungle will damage her global gig chances in Geneva. Nice work Bronny! And guess who’s her bag carrier? Yes, Cory Bernardi.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/burqa-announcement-damages-bronwyn-bishops-chances-for-global-gig-20141004-10qblh.html
    Peter FitzSimons’ weekly offering.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/so-theres-never-been-a-burqa-in-parliament-and-why-julia-gillards-memoir-is-going-cheap-20141003-10pp8p.html
    The Essendon Football Club could cause Hird’s appeal to collapse if they sack him before it commences.
    http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/james-hirds-coaching-future-could-shape-showcause-challenge-20141004-10qav1.html

  6. The Essendon players interests will only be protected if they become parties to the proceedings or they derive some benefit from a favourable decision for Hird.

  7. BK

    [Leaked documents show child abuse and self harm on Nauru.]
    But but but Generalissimo Morrison told us it was just a bunch of do gooders “coaching children” to make up stories. No wonder the prick was speaking so fast when made the presser.
    May his running of the Immigration Dept become the funeral pyre for the prick’s prime ministerial dreams.

  8. Good Morning

    For those who watch some laughs as Henderson tries and defends Burgaqte

    “@InsidersABC: Today on #insiders, Barrie Cassidy interviews Defence Min, David Johnston. @ToryShepherd @MikeSeccombe & Gerard Henderson on panel. #auspol”

  9. [it was surprising that Abbott chose to claim they fought with honor.]

    Probably Tones ad-hoc on Manly beach in red underpants trying to encourage tourists.

    Credlin must have been appalled.

  10. Abbott has just called Australia ‘a peaceful democracy’. This is a lie. Australia is a warlike democracy.

    We go to war, on average, once a decade.

  11. Insiders chooses the burqa clip showing Abbott the reasonable… not Abbott with the shit-eating grin talking about talking ‘mountains into molehills’

  12. Johnstone does not have a clue about how long this will last but admitted under pressure that this will last ‘months and more’.

    First Coalition warmonger to acknowledge explicitly that the war will last more than months.

  13. lol

    Cassidy reminds Johstone that ISIL fighters have grown from 5,000 in January to 15,000 a month ago to 31,000 today. The latter figures despite two months of bombing.

    Johnstone blames the Iraqis for their lack of ability to identify targets for airstrikes.

    We are on the side of the useless, right?

  14. Johnstone thinks that this war is to ‘…get the bad guys’ and that it will not be finished ‘overnight’.

    We have a military genius at the helm of our war machine.

  15. deblonay

    Can’t be much of a call for change, when the same poll you cite has the incumbent Democrat with a vote of 54% and his main rival on 29.

    I don’t think he – or the status quo – will feel very threatened by a Green candidate on 9%.

  16. Johnstone amply confirms that why is the right man for Abbott’s war.

    He is a bumbler who will have us bogged to the axles in the soft sand of yet another Middle Eastern Empty Quarter of Western folly.

  17. zoomster

    I would like to see a green surge in the US. I think however you are spot on with your comments.

    Especially given the US voting system including voluntary voting and voting restrictions

  18. [Johnstone thinks that this war is to ‘…get the bad guys’ and that it will not be finished ‘overnight’.]

    Yeah yeah, we’ve heard all this before haven’t we.

  19. Bw

    The Churchill Archive has the proof that MT tried hard.

    After that things happened.

    CDMR Clapp put people ashore.

    A regret from this – The Army. Not trained and not needed.

    The Navy Commandos could have sorted.

  20. Christensen says that he has nothing further to say about burqas because ‘…we have just launched military action in the Middle East’.

    So, what does Christensen know that Defence Minister Johnstone does not?

  21. Ah… Insiders just showing Abbott’s shit-eating grin while he is dissing the burqa debate.

    ‘Mission Control, we have balance’.

  22. [bw

    The Greens are not extreme left.]

    Tell that the Trots and assorted ideologues who are waggling the Greens Puppet using classic Front Organisation tactics.

    My suggestion, comrade, would be that you stop smoking the opium of the peoples.

  23. Hendo is not doing well on his dog whistling defence. The other members of the panel are skewering him.

    Hendo reckons that the answer is, ‘Look at France’. A decade ago Hendo and his mates were telling everyone that the French were ‘cheese eating surrender monkeys’.

    Plus ca change, eh Hendo?

  24. Jh

    Local government does from time to time throw up wild card individuals. I recall a ‘make my day chap’ becoming mayor as well.

    My original point stands: no extreme left party of the left in the US has been successful.

    As for g asserting that the Greens are not extreme left, gimme a break. A signature is that the Greens policies are an anarchist’s wet dream. Any Greens is free to misinterpret Greens policy at will.

    We have, for example, had Greens in the past few weeks Greens on Bludger (a) denying that the Greens do not propose to disarm Australia and (b) saying that the Greens will not buy fighters or submarines.

  25. bw

    No that is your fevered imagination. Greens in positions of power around the world have not acted as you describe.

    Evidence trumps your speculation

  26. Jeez, I must be destined to support the minority for large parts of my life.

    I see that 62% of the electorate (if Galaxy means anything at all) is in support of we (Oz) being part of the bombing outfits in the ME at the moment.

    Meanwhile, I look as though I am part of the 21% who do not. I take it the remainder are “undecided”.

    My opposition comes not from the fact that we are doing the bidding of the US as an ally (which I can accept as a reason if not necessarily agreeing with it), but the fact that such involvement will prove to be, like so many others in the last 50 years, essentially futile.

    Not one captive in orange will be saved by this bombing in the short or medium turn.

    The fact that IS has slaughtered thousands of Iraq military personnel in this way seems to be lost in the concept of the life of one European being worth about ten thousand of any other.

    As an aside, why the squeamishness in the West to beheading? This method has been used for centuries right up until not so long ago in France and Germany. One supposes that a line of twenty soldiers shooting at a target pinned to a chest, with a final bullet in the head (just in case) is a kind of more noble way?

    The fact that not one politician can outline the purpose of such involvement – other than some vague concept that we ‘must do something’, cannot move the strategic purpose beyond ‘we have to get the baddies’ and have no idea how long all this will take….’months rather than weeks’ (years rather then months??) beggars the belief that 62% of the electorate are happy to go along for the ride.

    I guess, at the end of the day, many feel this is a ‘safe’ involvement – lots of laser guided destruction from on high, bit like a computer game. And, no risk to ‘our’ side.

    What I cannot fathom is the twisted logic of the conservatives when in comes to local threat.

    On the one hand, we are led to believe that an attack on parliament house is on the cards (more likely a bomb in a food hall in a large shopping centre would be more spectacular if one was an evil person) yet, our involvement in the bombing will not heighten the risk of an attack on home soil.

    As we are already on the brink of some catastrophic home event, the ‘have it both ways’ argument is amazing.

    I wonder how long it will be before those opposed to this involvement in the ME will be labelled as “traitors” or “appeasers” or “cowards” or some such – especially by the Murdoch press?

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