Seat of the week: Fraser

The electorate covering northern Canberra has been a stronghold for Labor since the ACT was first divided into two seats in 1974, presently providing a home for Shadow Assistant Treasurer Andrew Leigh.

Red and blue numbers respectively indicate size of two-party Labor and Liberal polling booth majorities. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Created when the Australian Capital Territory was first divided into two electorates in 1974, Fraser covers the northern half of Canberra, with Lake Burley Griffin and the Molonglo River forming its southern boundary. The southern half of Canberra, together with the non-residential remainder of the Australian Capital Territory, is accommodated by the electorate of Canberra. Whereas Canberra was held by the Liberals from 1975 to 1980 and again for a brief period after a 1995 by-election, Fraser has at all times been held by Labor. Andrew Leigh came to the seat at the 2010 election after the retirement of Bob McMullan, who had held it since a rearrangement caused when the ACT’s representation reverted back to two seats after briefly going to three between the elections of 1996 and 1998. This involved the displacement of Steve Darvagel, who had come to Fraser at a by-election in February 1997 caused by the retirement of John Langmore. McMullan’s vacancy in Canberra was filled by Annette Ellis, who had hitherto been the first and final member for the short-lived seat of Namadji.

When McMullan and Ellis both announced their impending retirements in early 2010, there were suggestions that they were pushed as much as jumped, in McMullan’s case because powerbrokers wished for his seat to go to Left faction nominee Nick Martin. However, the independence of the local branches was instead asserted during the complicated preselection struggles which followed in both seats. Suggestions of a factional arrangement were made to appear particularly distasteful by the strong fields of candidates which emerged, with Leigh joined in the race for Fraser by constitutional law maven George Williams, locally well-connected West Belconnen Health Co-operative chair Michael Pilbrow, and over half-a-dozen others. The Left membership voted down a deal to win backing for Martin by reciprocating support for Right candidate Mary Wood in Fraser, reportedly due to concern about that the Right was not united enough to make the deal stick, and also because it was felt the faction would be better off securing an arrangement with Gai Brodtmann, who had stitched together a cross-factional support base in pursuit of her own bid for Canberra. When the Right’s own candidates dropped out early in the counts, its support was thrown behind the ultimate winners, Leigh and Brodtmann, with Leigh prevailing in the final Fraser ballot by 144 votes to 96.

Leigh was professor of economics at the Australian National University immediately before entering politics, having earlier practised law in Sydney and London and gained a doctorate from Harvard University. A Julia Gillard loyalist, he gained the position of parliamentary secretary to the Prime Minister in the shake-up that followed Kevin Rudd’s abortive leadership bid in March 2013, only to lose it when Rudd returned to the leadership at the end of June. Although factionally unaligned, he won promotion to the outer shadow ministry after the September 2013 election defeat as Assistant Shadow Treasurer.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

670 comments on “Seat of the week: Fraser”

Comments Page 5 of 14
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  1. [Astrobleme
    Posted Monday, September 8, 2014 at 11:41 am | Permalink

    Daretotread

    Conflict with China is a real possibility because of the flare up between UA and China and the certainty of us taking sides with the USA.

    How is this a ‘real possibility’ on what are you basing this?
    There’s a possibility of conflict with Russia… But seriously what big modern economy will want to get involved in a large conflict like the one you are describing? Economies are dependent on each other now, there’s too much money involved for the US and China to go to war.]

    Sure, sure. Greensthink in full flow: rational considerations have always underpinned the actions of warmongers.

  5. CM

    I get it.

    Adelaide needs more extra money. So does Tasmania. So does the ACT. So does the Northern Territory. So do huge regional areas in Western Australia, Queensland and New South Wales.

    So, why, apart from the wants of the Adelaideans, Adelaide?

  6. Corio

    Agree that Latham while a feisty character seems to have a severe chip on his shoulder.

    Roozendaal is a grub and I support Jodie McKay’s call for his expulsion from the ALP.

  7. “@MWhitbourn: Photios says Lib state executive didn’t need to ask identity of donors as “our helpful friends from the print media” would reveal them #ICAC”

  8. “@MWhitbourn: Photios says Lib state executive didn’t need to ask identity of donors as “our helpful friends from the print media” would reveal them #ICAC”

  9. All of you guys know so much about Indian history here are is a common knowledge question for you:

    Which three bits of additional territory has India grabbed since Independence, noting that one was in the nature of a tit-for-tat?

  11. Boerwar

    [Sure, sure. Greensthink in full flow: rational considerations have always underpinned the actions of warmongers.]

    Yeah, [Greensthink]. I would suggest it’s better than the arm-wavy ‘Boerwar-think’.

    What is it about you and the Greens? Why can’t you conduct a discussion without reducing it to political allegiances? It’s, and I know William hates me using this word but, STUPID.

    I would suggest that most wars have at their heart an economic purpose or drive. Countries that are happily trading and have their economies linked so both are profitable, won’t go to war as there’s no point.

  13. Boerwar

    [Which three bits of additional territory has India grabbed since Independence, noting that one was in the nature of a tit-for-tat?]

    Are you seriously saying that India is into conquest by war??? This is deranged.

  15. Abbott should front (along with the rest of them) at the ICAC:

    Would he answer any questions? He’d probably just bang on endlessly about boats, terrorists, debt and deficit disasters, batts, the roads of the future, etc etc no matter what he was asked. And blame Labor for whatever the problem was.

  17. [Also, why are there fully automated flying drones, but nothing I’ve heard of drone submarines?]

    There is the small issue of radio communications with underwater vehicles – you can’t do it.

  18. [Carey Moore
    Posted Monday, September 8, 2014 at 11:55 am | Permalink

    So Boerwar, do you have a solution to the economic malaise?

    Preferably one that doesn’t involve diaspora or genocide please.]

    Not that anyone would implement them any time soon:

    (1) reduce our national consumption patterns by about three quarters per capita
    (2) rejig the consumption patterns so that the consumption is more equitably shared
    (3) restrict immigration to asylum seekers and reduce the current rate of immigration by around 75%
    (4) close down the mining industry over time. We have a bad case of the Australian disease as a direct consequence of iron ore and coal.
    (5) identify niche specialities at the high-value end and concentrate on being world-best at them. IMHO, these could include agricultural and the biomedicine end of things
    (6) get rid of upper and middle class welfare altogether
    (7) concentrate our war making capability on non-alignment and continental defence.
    (8) slow down.

  19. [Astrobleme
    Posted Monday, September 8, 2014 at 11:57 am | Permalink

    Boerwar

    Which three bits of additional territory has India grabbed since Independence, noting that one was in the nature of a tit-for-tat?

    Are you seriously saying that India is into conquest by war??? This is deranged.]

    See? Greensthink, everytime.

    Correct answer: Goa, Sikkim and slabs of Pakistan.

  22. I’d like to see some peer review of this before I accept it but I’ve always thought Kosminski was the most likely Jack the Ripper.

    [JACK the Ripper was a Polish hairdresser called Aaron Kosminski, according to an author who claims to have identified the Victorian serial killer using DNA evidence from a 130-year-old shawl. ]

  23. Boerwar

    So you seriously think that India wants to expand and take territory by conquest?

    [Greensthink] – still incapable of avoiding the political attack.. You are a very simple being… Can you try for a few minutes at least, to leave these stupid political attacks aside and focus on the issue.

  27. Astrobleme

    While India is not by and large aggressive, you are aware I assume that just 10 years ago or so India and Pakistan were on the point of NUCLEAR WAR. I had a friend working in India and he was in a dead set panic and came home.

    I would like to believe you about conflict with China but the USA is an unpredictable country given to electing oddballs. Just imagine if McCain and Palin were elected and McCain had a heart attack. Palin could have been president. USA could have gone to war with Canada and China 9 (at the same time)

  28. [I would suggest that most wars have at their heart an economic purpose or drive. Countries that are happily trading and have their economies linked so both are profitable, won’t go to war as there’s no point.]

    You haven’t noticed the currency war currently at play?

    Demographic changes such ageing and slowing birthrates, along with access cheap debt, have caused massive over capitalisation around the world. There is simply too much productive capital around for anyone to cover their debts, and all major countries (except Au) are trying to devalue to stop their financial systems imploding. Wealthy people can see a risk their hoards of debt obligations significantly devaluing.

    There’s also a growing trend towards new trade barrier and sanctions, e.g. Russia has a bundle of sanctions up against it.

    Your premise of your capitalist peace is being undermined.

  29. BW

    [It is absolutely useless acting as if things are going to be same in thirty or forty years.]

    Precisely. They may be very different and thus render any decision we take now obsolete.

    We ought to plan for things that we are confident we can see. The nature of any military threat and what we, if there is a ‘we’ is at best unclear.

    Better to look after the interests of people alive now and in the foreseeable future.

  31. Re: Peta’s involvement in dodgy funding deals

    will it get the same media near silence that Mr Peta’s involvment has?

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/icac-hears-liberal-party-boss-brian-loughnane-knew-developer-donations-went-through-federal-channels-20140806-100vlc.html

    can you image the msm media being so silent had it been the ALP National Secretary involved in something such as this? The Oz would have been in daily hyperventilation re: labor corruption and dirty tricks.

    the fish rots from the head, and this stuff goes all the way to the top. abbott claiming that it was ‘confusing’ and ‘labor’s fault for changing donor rules’ speaks volumes (has he said he had ‘no specific knowledge’ as he did repeatedly over ashby? ‘specific’ is such a qualifier, you have to suspect this means he had knowledge of it going on)

    Labor and the greens need to push on a nation-wide ban/limits on such donations, including donations from mining companies (& to be fair, from windfarm businesses, fundraising groups and unions too). Limit any company/organisation donations to say $5,000 and make anything about $100 declarable and published. Make any advertising from a lobby group/think tank that promotes one party over another a declarable donation as well and limit it.

    with ICAC the time is ripe for such reforms, and with mega-rich influence in politics the need has never been greater.

  32. [Correct answer: Goa, Sikkim and slabs of Pakistan.]

    I take it Sikkim was an independent administration but within Indian protectorate, but the people at that time hated the monarchy and was actually happy to have India relieve them?

    A referendum later sealed this fate, but an earlier referendum prior to independence rejected the union.

  33. LU

    [Your premise of your capitalist peace is being undermined.]

    No, because what you’re suggesting is that the basis for the peace is being undermined. The reaction to this shouldn’t be the buy more tanks and subs, but rather fix the economic problem.

    So your future is a war caused by the collapse of the economic system. As long as the economics holds up, we should see peace.

  34. Daretotread

    Sure, Pakistan and India have a history of conflict, but this has NOTHING To do with Australia. Nor does it somehow imply they’re a threat to us.

    Boerwar’s concern was that India was going to invade Australia… Which seems utterly ridiculous and without basis.

    It’s a bit like Namibia being concerned about Australia because we invaded Iraq.

  35. GG

    If you take my comments to you as laughable you seriously do have a problem.

    But then again you seem to be on a different radar to most of us on here.

  37. Whole LNP is corrupt:

    Michaela Whitbourn @MWhitbourn · 17s

    Asked if he is aware of any case where money given to Free Enterprise Foundaion didn’t come back to the Liberals, Yabsley says: “No.” #ICAC

  38. [ The best option for our military dollars would be for the Americans to sell us some of their best stuff, like the F-22 ]

    Ah yes, the F22 that has no IRST capability, wont actually be able to fire the latest WVR missiles for a few years, has more durability issues than the RAAF would like to have to deal with and is out of production?

    Funny thing is that the F22 wont actually be a mature platform until the migrate tech developed for the F35 into it. Its actually quite limited in capability at the moment. Will be interesting to see how F35 vs F22 stack up in exercises particularly where serious electronic countermeasures are used to fwark up BVR missiles.

    Very sad the F23 never made it into production. There was a beasty machine which arguably was better suited to Australia’s needs.

    On the subs contract thing, i think Soryu class is a good option for Australia, but they need to do better than having the whole spend go to Japan as an industry plan.

    One of the HUGE advantages the Japanese will get out of this deal is that if two major American allies are using the Soryu class (or a modernised derivative) out to 2050 or so there will be much attention paid to integration of top line American systems being integrated and maintained into a conventional platform. The Americans do submarine systems and weapons VERY well. This also gives the Americans more of a link into an active, high quality, and ongoing conventional sub program which is something their navy lacks at the moment with their focus on nukes.

  39. [So your future is a war caused by the collapse of the economic system. As long as the economics holds up, we should see peace.]

    Ahh yes, fix the economic problem.

    Easy.

    I can’t for the life of me see why I didn’t think of that.

    I guess it’s because some very wealthy people and powerful need to take a haircut for that to happen. They don’t want that to happen, and did I mention that they have great wealth and power?

    Heck, they might even prefer to send other people off to war before loosing those things.

  42. Michaela Whitbourn @MWhitbourn · 8m

    “It was set up to raise money for non-Labor side of politics with a particular focus on supporting the Lib Party,” Yabsley says of FEF #ICAC

  45. Can anyone advise me? I’m trying to find out the season when sheep were usually shorn back in the 19th century. Google is not helpful.

  47. sustainable futuure

    [ the fish rots from the head, and this stuff goes all the way to the top. abbott claiming that it was ‘confusing’ and ‘labor’s fault for changing donor rules’ speaks volumes (has he said he had ‘no specific knowledge’ as he did repeatedly over ashby? ‘specific’ is such a qualifier, you have to suspect this means he had knowledge of it going on) ]

    I heard that Pyne has used the ‘no specific knowledge’ line today. This is of course Peta-speak that is intended to allow them later (should any evidence come to light) to admit that yes they knew about it in general terms, but not the details.

    In other words, it is an admission.

  48. I actually disagree with the idea that this Ashbygate drama means nothing. Sure, those of us who actually keep track of this are not surprised by anything in it. Apart from Brough admitting he encouraged activities.

    But to a LOT of people out there, the only issue was the sexual harassment claim and that, frankly, it was the Speaker v another man. The cover up of the allegations of support for Ashby by senior LNP figures was … a bit cloudy. This has made that element a lot sharper for those who were not paying attention.

  49. Interesting debate on potential future military threats.

    I think the posited scenario involving a large Asian country seeking “lebensraum” is unlikely to the point of being laughable.

    What is happening in Asia at the moment, as in most of the rest of the world, is a mass migration to the cities. This is usually portrayed in the media as involving poor rural people looking for work, but in countries like India and Indonesia it applies just as much to the traditional rural elites preferring to become absentee landlords enjoying a city lifestyle. In one area of India with which I am familiar, many landlords have abandoned fair portions of their family land (keeping only the most productive) and have more or less given it to the lower classes/untouchables.

    These trends are occurring throughout the third world and mean that there really isn’t any economic reason for one nation to invade other purely to gain additional agricultural land.

    Mineral wealth could be a different matter, but aggressive war – especially involving an attack on a peaceful first world country – is an extremely expensive exercise and one which is likely to attract the enmity of most of the rest of the world.

    I think that, for the foreseeable future, Australia’s military tasks are going mainly to take the form of peacekeeping and/or assisting US action in unstable places in the Middle East and perhaps Africa.

    Beyond this, the most I can imagine is a nation making a grab for one of our external territories: Christmas Island or Antarctica. They would do this on the basis of some alleged greater right to the territory (a la Argentina in the Falklands) and presumably would be seeking mineral wealth.

    I’m not saying we don’t need a strong military capability. But the threats against us should not be oversold.

  50. Imacca

    In feasibility terms

    1. There is no quantifiable threat to Australia’s security interests. Nor can we assess its quality and scope or even the timeline on which a notional threat might appear.

    Accordingly, we cannot identify whether the resources exist to parry or reduce the threat that might arise.

    It follows that we cannot determine what provision should be made to parry the threat.

    The logical thing to do is to observe and respond if data arises that changes the above.

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