 |
| Red and blue numbers respectively indicate size of two-party Labor and Liberal polling booth majorities. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
Created when the Australian Capital Territory was first divided into two electorates in 1974, Fraser covers the northern half of Canberra, with Lake Burley Griffin and the Molonglo River forming its southern boundary. The southern half of Canberra, together with the non-residential remainder of the Australian Capital Territory, is accommodated by the electorate of Canberra. Whereas Canberra was held by the Liberals from 1975 to 1980 and again for a brief period after a 1995 by-election, Fraser has at all times been held by Labor. Andrew Leigh came to the seat at the 2010 election after the retirement of Bob McMullan, who had held it since a rearrangement caused when the ACT’s representation reverted back to two seats after briefly going to three between the elections of 1996 and 1998. This involved the displacement of Steve Darvagel, who had come to Fraser at a by-election in February 1997 caused by the retirement of John Langmore. McMullan’s vacancy in Canberra was filled by Annette Ellis, who had hitherto been the first and final member for the short-lived seat of Namadji.
When McMullan and Ellis both announced their impending retirements in early 2010, there were suggestions that they were pushed as much as jumped, in McMullan’s case because powerbrokers wished for his seat to go to Left faction nominee Nick Martin. However, the independence of the local branches was instead asserted during the complicated preselection struggles which followed in both seats. Suggestions of a factional arrangement were made to appear particularly distasteful by the strong fields of candidates which emerged, with Leigh joined in the race for Fraser by constitutional law maven George Williams, locally well-connected West Belconnen Health Co-operative chair Michael Pilbrow, and over half-a-dozen others. The Left membership voted down a deal to win backing for Martin by reciprocating support for Right candidate Mary Wood in Fraser, reportedly due to concern about that the Right was not united enough to make the deal stick, and also because it was felt the faction would be better off securing an arrangement with Gai Brodtmann, who had stitched together a cross-factional support base in pursuit of her own bid for Canberra. When the Right’s own candidates dropped out early in the counts, its support was thrown behind the ultimate winners, Leigh and Brodtmann, with Leigh prevailing in the final Fraser ballot by 144 votes to 96.
Leigh was professor of economics at the Australian National University immediately before entering politics, having earlier practised law in Sydney and London and gained a doctorate from Harvard University. A Julia Gillard loyalist, he gained the position of parliamentary secretary to the Prime Minister in the shake-up that followed Kevin Rudd’s abortive leadership bid in March 2013, only to lose it when Rudd returned to the leadership at the end of June. Although factionally unaligned, he won promotion to the outer shadow ministry after the September 2013 election defeat as Assistant Shadow Treasurer.
[Faced with a basically unsustainable approach to population and natural resources, both India and Indonesia reckon they need a bit of lebensraum.]
[Their eyes turn south…]
[So they get together. India builds its own jets, etc, etc, etc. Indonesia has the proximity.]
You sound genuinely paranoid.
If you want to get serious, the only real deterrent we could ever have against our much larger Asian neighbours would be nuclear weapons.
In any event, in the type of scenario you describe, how is outsourcing our ability to produce weapons helpful? If, as you posted above, we have a problem with the quality and reliability of what we make now, then the smart answer would be to fix that problem, not to destroy our domestic industry entirely.
I see Jodie McKay is asking for Eric Roozendaal to be expelled from the ALP.
He deserves to be he is obnoxious and poisonous.
I ran against him at the State Conference in 1988 for the Assistant Secretary position and got 42.8% of the vote (a Faulkner strategy) and he is a disgraceful individual.
He would not know ethics and humility if they hit him in the head.
Boerwar
[They will not be and it is disingenous of the Greens to pretend that they will be the same.]
Ha ha haaaaaaaaaaaaaaa Oh yeah, because the Greens think nothing changes in a thousand years…
more arm waving…. You’re like those squiggly arm inflatable things… Look out the Yellow Peril is coming!!!!
[Patrick Bateman
Posted Monday, September 8, 2014 at 11:00 am | Permalink
Aside from the obvious error in there. How on earth do you figure any of those three countries are a threat??
India I agree is no threat.
Indonesia was pretty close to electing a militarist president who styled himself on the 1930s Nazi party, so there’s that.
And anyone with a grasp of what is going on in Asia would agree that tensions between China and various third parties (US, Japan, and various smaller Asian nations) is the biggest threat to regional security. While I was in Japan last year Chinese and Japanese military vehicles were playing chicken over the Senkakus, with some very real Cold War-style risks of someone doing something stupid.]
I did not prioritise the likelihood of the threats.
I agree that the current major flashpoint is China v Japan with Australia more and more likely to be dragged in by way of our idiot Uncle Sam lockstep policies.
This potential increases as China and Russia have decided to play footsies, pro tem, and as the US deals with the inexorable power-projection consequences of a $13 trillion debt.
But anyone who discounts India as a major, major player in our region and a significant potential threat to Australia over the coming decades is blind both to asian history and asian potential scenarios.
Astrobleme
Ignore Boerwar he has no tolerance for debate he prefers abuse.
[Patrick Bateman
Posted Monday, September 8, 2014 at 10:41 am | PERMALINK
I’m not sure if people outside SA realise how bad this submarine news is for the state.]
The big question Patrick is whether the SA people are smart enough to punish the liberals at the ballot box.
[But anyone who discounts India as a major, major player in our region and a significant potential threat to Australia over the coming decades is blind both to asian history and asian potential scenarios.]
Out of interest, have you been to India? They would need a radically more efficient social and governmental system to have the faintest chance of projecting force more than 100m outside their own borders.
Remember what Abbott said about ICAC?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_JIQ9SvRQk
EAT YOUR WORDS.
[The big question Patrick is whether the SA people are smart enough to punish the liberals at the ballot box.]
We have been a relatively Labor friendly state for a while (see our ridiculous history with the state government where we have re-elected an obviously incompetent and corrupt bunch of twats over and over again because the Libs here are so on the nose).
If things keep going the way they are then I would expect there will be a backlash at the next election. But alas we don’t have enough seats to truly matter, except in the senate.
MTBW,
You must have been a shocker of a candidate if you could not defeat someone with the character deficiencies of Eric.
[I agree that the current major flashpoint is China v Japan with Australia more and more likely to be dragged in by way of our idiot Uncle Sam lockstep policies.]
Agreed. The Gillard/ Abbott expansion of US bases here is the most genuinely stupid foreign policy reorientation Australia has made in years.
All the way up to Rudd (and that’s including Howard) we maintained a very sensible bipartisan line on China, which was more sensitive to out own regional interests.
[Patrick Bateman
Posted Monday, September 8, 2014 at 11:04 am | Permalink
Faced with a basically unsustainable approach to population and natural resources, both India and Indonesia reckon they need a bit of lebensraum.
Their eyes turn south…
So they get together. India builds its own jets, etc, etc, etc. Indonesia has the proximity.
You sound genuinely paranoid.]
It doesn’t take long for Greens to descend to personal abuse of the nastiest kind, does it? Better minds than mine are turning their minds to the significant what ifs. Anyone who automatically discounts a potential anti-Australian alliance against Australia is purblind. I am not saying it will happen which would be paranoid. I am saying it could happen which is sensible if you are doing defence expenditure planning that will keep being relevant in 2060.
[If you want to get serious, the only real deterrent we could ever have against our much larger Asian neighbours would be nuclear weapons.]
Well, I can just imagine the Greens and Labor agreeing to that.
[In any event, in the type of scenario you describe, how is outsourcing our ability to produce weapons helpful? If, as you posted above, we have a problem with the quality and reliability of what we make now, then the smart answer would be to fix that problem, not to destroy our domestic industry entirely.]
Australia simply does not have the economies of scale to produce the big, complicated stuff.
I understand the concept of our depending during war that we would rely on others to purchase more equipment or to do repairs.
This is a major strategic issue for Australia regardless of whether we build three jets a year or whether we build a bew submarine once every three years.
The strategic scale problem is that cost to maintain the infrastructure for a war build is simply prohibitive.
The only reason we would continue to build subs in Adelaide is we know for sure that we will never have to rely on our subs for anything real.
[You must have been a shocker of a candidate if you could not defeat someone with the character deficiencies of Eric.]
Because internal ALP ballots are always decided on merit, obviously.
Defence planners must think in terms of threats from particular quarters. That’s their job.
Indonesia is a potential threat by virtue of being large in population and economy and being right next door. They are in a position to make life here very uncomfortable, should they choose to. While there’s no sign of any hostile intentions now or in the foreseeable future, who knows about the next 50 years? We’ve probably got as much chance of getting that right as someone planning defence for the next 50 years in 1909.
Other neighbours – NZ, PNG, Pacific islands have more to worry about from us than we of them.
China, by virtue of being in the near future a global nuclear superpower like the old Soviet Union, is a potential threat. So, conceivably, could Russia. Or India. Looking into the mists of the distant future, conceivably the USA? Maybe they won’t always be our friend. Maybe an American Hitler could arise. Who knows?
And there’s always a possibility that any threat that emerges in 50 to 100 years might come from somewhere that no one is looking at the moment.
[It doesn’t take long for Greens to descend to personal abuse of the nastiest kind, does it?]
I’m not a Green.
[Better minds than mine are turning their minds to the significant what ifs.]
Better minds than yours are doing all kinds of things. 🙂
[If things keep going the way they are then I would expect there will be a backlash at the next election. But alas we don’t have enough seats to truly matter, except in the senate.]
Patrick
Every additional seat won has the potential to throw Abbott and his bunch of misfits out of office.
BW@91
We are in agreement on this.
Not to quantify death, and I say death by any means are terrible, and usually in those cases are through no fault of the victims.
Funny though when we have a government who thinks it’s a terrible tragedy that people are killed by dodgy insulation or terrorism, but think nothing of putting people in conditions worse than poverty-line standards or in prison-like camps that may result in death in the long run.
[Patrick Bateman
Posted Monday, September 8, 2014 at 11:10 am | Permalink
But anyone who discounts India as a major, major player in our region and a significant potential threat to Australia over the coming decades is blind both to asian history and asian potential scenarios.
Out of interest, have you been to India? They would need a radically more efficient social and governmental system to have the faintest chance of projecting force more than 100m outside their own borders.]
(a) yes
(b) have I read asian history exensively both at university and thereafter? yes.
(c) am I aware of current Indian priorities? yes.
(d) am I saying that the current situation is that India is an immediate threat? no.
(e) do I think that the unsustainability of Indonesia and India will increase the likelihood of potential threat from that direction? yes.
(f) do I think that global warming will make this potential larger rather than smaller? yes.
(g) am I saying that their are scenarios involving Indian and Indonesia that provide a potential threat to Australia during the life our next crop of subs? yes
You seem to be relying on the view that since there is no significant threat right now, there cannot possibly be a significant threat over the next half century.
[And there’s always a possibility that any threat that emerges in 50 to 100 years might come from somewhere that no one is looking at the moment.]
The Australian First Reich under Herr Tony Abbott?
Japan would actually still be on the list of far distant potential threats. They still have a hyper nationalist culture, a fondness for the military, and the ability to build things quickly and well if they really want to.
Libs making a big mistake if they announce a complete buy on the subs contract from Japan. Will be interesting to see what the local component to it is.
Read that Sheehan article today. Wow, he really hates Gillard doesn’t he? Is there anything bad in Australia that Gillard is not entirely responsible for i wonder?
So good to see the Icacy start to spread around the Federal Fibs. 🙂 Direct link to the PM’s minder in context of laundering funds to circumvent NSW law? Seems like there are a few people with questions to answer. 🙂
60 mins disappointing. Pyne will just deny all and get away with it unless there is some documentary proof lying around since Ashby is, regardless, a known toe-rag with little credibility.
[Patrick Bateman
Posted Monday, September 8, 2014 at 11:18 am | Permalink
It doesn’t take long for Greens to descend to personal abuse of the nastiest kind, does it?
I’m not a Green.
Better minds than mine are turning their minds to the significant what ifs.
Better minds than yours are doing all kinds of things. 🙂 ]
OK, so you are not a Greens but you might as well be when it comes to defence policy.
Patrick,
Who knows.
Perhaps Eric was the least worst candidate in that little ballot.
[have I read asian history exensively both at university and thereafter? yes]
Love a good appeal to authority.
[You seem to be relying on the view that since there is no significant threat right now, there cannot possibly be a significant threat over the next half century.]
And you seem to be of the view that we should spend $40B overseas to counter your blind guesses about stuff that might happen in several decades time.
[Patrick Bateman
Posted Monday, September 8, 2014 at 11:22 am | Permalink
And there’s always a possibility that any threat that emerges in 50 to 100 years might come from somewhere that no one is looking at the moment.
The Australian First Reich under Herr Tony Abbott?
Japan would actually still be on the list of far distant potential threats. They still have a hyper nationalist culture, a fondness for the military, and the ability to build things quickly and well if they really want to.]
Isn’t that a bit paranoid of you? It would be the world’s first conquest launched by sexagenarians on behalf of nonagenerians.
Japes aside, the more likely risk is that the crazed nationalist cum militarists in Japan trigger a war with China.
Sorry if already posted but come on down Arfur.
[Sinodinos to front ICAC again
On Monday counsel assisting the commission, Geoffrey Watson SC, said Senator Sinodinos will be added to Tuesday’s witness list.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/sinodinos-to-front-icac-again/story-fn3dxiwe-1227051220641
Retweeted by Kate McClymont
Michelle Harris @mshell_harris 7m
Fmr Liberal party state director Mark Neeham on taking money from banned donors via Free Enterprise: “everyone assumed it was legal” #ICAC
They say alot of “assumed” or “I didn’t know” or “I don’t know” or “I can’t remember”.
GG
Hope you are happy today as opposed to other days.
Ever heard of factions in the ALP and being told how to vote?
It is very real but then I suppose that you have never been asked to take on the Right and their herding of delegates.
[OK, so you are not a Greens but you might as well be when it comes to defence policy.]
Right, that’s why I said nuclear weapons would be our only effective deterrent. I think I remember Christine Milne giving a speech about that.
We have a huge space, not many people, and large quantities of uranium. We should focus on a conventional force which can best exploit the natural landscape of our country (which is dramatically different to the rest of Asia) together with seriously looking at developing a nuclear deterrent.
We are already a nuclear target thanks to the Americans and their various facilities here – if there ever were a nuclear war involving the US then a couple of intelligence bases here would be priority targets for their opponents.
With our plentiful supply of uranium, I’m not surprised we didn’t just do a Putin. It’s a good deterance since we’re on our own island 😉
Also, why are there fully automated flying drones, but nothing I’ve heard of drone submarines? At least we no longer have to deal with OHS issues in subs if humans are no longer involved.
[atrick Bateman
Posted Monday, September 8, 2014 at 11:25 am | Permalink
have I read asian history exensively both at university and thereafter? yes
Love a good appeal to authority.]
Well, if you raise the irrelevance of whether or not I have been to India, it is a bit inconsistent of you to carp at the next step down that road?
Have you ever been to Adelaide, BTW?
It is a city built at the edge of a rapidly-encroaching desert. The best solution, in terms of sustainability, would be to chop it up and redistribute it along the upper reaches of the Murray-Darling.
[Japes aside, the more likely risk is that the crazed nationalist cum militarists in Japan trigger a war with China.]
On that we agree. And the US is doing its best to enable this behaviour by the Japanese. I’m not sure how I feel about us helping them keep their defence industry ticking over with this sub order.
My point re Japan was that if you want to do some far future speculation you can come up with scenarios for almost anything.
[Have you ever been to Adelaide, BTW?]
I live in Adelaide you muppet.
Abbott should front (along with the rest of them) at the ICAC:
Neil Chenoweth @NeilChenoweth · 5m
Context for Abbott’s business links: in July 2010 he held policy launches WA & Qld at offices of Wickenby tax investigation targets #auspol
PB
I don’t have an in-principle opposition to nukes.
But, it is not that simple, IMHO.
If we build nukes so would Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. All of them have the capacity to do so over time.
MTBW,
The left has always been numerically deficient and see that as an affront to democracy. You lost fair and square. Something about not having enough votes will do that to you every time.
Whingeing about it twenty five years later probably confirms that it was the best result in the situation.
[Patrick Bateman
Posted Monday, September 8, 2014 at 11:29 am | Permalink
Have you ever been to Adelaide, BTW?
I live in Adelaide you muppet.]
I knew that you silly old thing.
Why else would you go irrational at the mere thought that the rest of Australia has cottoned on to the fact that you guys have been parasitising us?
[If we build nukes so would Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. All of them have the capacity to do so over time.]
Maybe so. But it may still be our least worst option.
The other major issue IMHO is that we get all the downsides of our close alliance with the US, but none of the upsides. The best option for our military dollars would be for the Americans to sell us some of their best stuff, like the F-22 and their top line attack subs. But instead they offer us the second rate export gear.
Patrick
I have been to India and loved it – I went with my late Mum who had always wanted to go there.
Ignore Boerwar he is boring.
[Patrick Bateman
Posted Monday, September 8, 2014 at 11:28 am | Permalink
Japes aside, the more likely risk is that the crazed nationalist cum militarists in Japan trigger a war with China.
On that we agree. And the US is doing its best to enable this behaviour by the Japanese. I’m not sure how I feel about us helping them keep their defence industry ticking over with this sub order.
My point re Japan was that if you want to do some far future speculation you can come up with scenarios for almost anything.]
Hell, we agree on that as well. My point was that anyone who discounts India/Indonesia alone or separately over the next 50-100 years has their head in the sand completely.
[Why else would you go irrational at the mere thought that the rest of Australia has cottoned on to the fact that you guys have been parasitising us?]
Nothing irrational about pointing out that this will have a huge negative impact on SA. If you think that a toxic economy across the majority of south eastern Australia is a good thing, then I guess it’s fine.
For once i agree with BW not Fran, but not all of BWs analysis.
Conflict with China is a real possibility because of the flare up between UA and China and the certainty of us taking sides with the USA. To get a feeling for the VERY REAL threat I suggest you take a look at the Chinese ambassador’s face in today’s images ie with Bishop. There was not a TRACE of a smile. He is either afflicted with autism or we have REAL problem ie the ambassador hates us.
Now as to the value of submarines to Australia in a conflict, we need to consider firstly our exports but crucially our imports. Now obviously Austalia would have b** all export trade left because China exports would cease and exports to Japan and Korea would be very, very risky.If Japan needs resources it would be safer to go Brazil to Japan.
What though are our essential imports – what can we absolutely not do without. Oil is the most obvious but I suspect also medicines, engines, planes and eventually clothing/fabric would be scarce.
We would need submarines and destroyers and probably air power to protect our shipping. Our great and powerful ally would not help because they will have bigger fish to fry. Obviously china would FIRST try to secure its own sea lanes which means taking out the Darwin base and taking charge of the Timor Sea. We MUST stay friendly with Indonesia because if for some reason they sided with China we will be right royally stuffed. Our shipping would need to go via the South Pacific or Southern Indian ocean. or
[Patrick Bateman
Posted Monday, September 8, 2014 at 11:32 am | Permalink
If we build nukes so would Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. All of them have the capacity to do so over time.
Maybe so. But it may still be our least worst option.
The other major issue IMHO is that we get all the downsides of our close alliance with the US, but none of the upsides. The best option for our military dollars would be for the Americans to sell us some of their best stuff, like the F-22 and their top line attack subs. But instead they offer us the second rate export gear.]
Agree. We keep buying the Brewster Buffaloes of the day.
Perhaps we should join the South Korean/Indonesian consortium which is jointly developing a next gen fighter?
[I have been to India and loved it – I went with my late Mum who had always wanted to go there.]
Me too, amazing/terrifying place. And more of a threat from the perspective of completely destroying the global atmosphere than from the point of view of marching south to conquer Asia. Given that it takes 18 uniformed Indian government officials to check a visa I just can’t see India as the next imperial power.
[Patrick Bateman
Posted Monday, September 8, 2014 at 11:33 am | Permalink
Why else would you go irrational at the mere thought that the rest of Australia has cottoned on to the fact that you guys have been parasitising us?
Nothing irrational about pointing out that this will have a huge negative impact on SA. If you think that a toxic economy across the majority of south eastern Australia is a good thing, then I guess it’s fine.]
My problem is with the other sort of toxic economy: the one where we subsidise an economy to build second rate stuff, slowly, at ruinously expensive rates.
Daretotread
[Conflict with China is a real possibility because of the flare up between UA and China and the certainty of us taking sides with the USA. ]
How is this a ‘real possibility’ on what are you basing this?
There’s a possibility of conflict with Russia… But seriously what big modern economy will want to get involved in a large conflict like the one you are describing? Economies are dependent on each other now, there’s too much money involved for the US and China to go to war.
Patrick
It was overwhelming! We went to Delhi the Taj Mahal and then up to Srinagar loved it all – fascinating!
What SA needs is support from the Federal Government in its endeavours to develop new industries and build infrastructure. It is trying its absolute hardest but with a very small bank to work from, its progress is really slow.
It doesn’t need a PM who punishes it for having the audacity to re-elect Labor at the state level. Nor doe it need to cut its trickle of extra revenue by giving tax cuts to wealthy property developers. Nor does it need labels like “The Welfare State” or clueless idiots calling for the disbandment of the place. It needs a good bit of short term investment, so that, in the long-term, it can stand on its own two feet and be injecting money back into the Commonwealth to help another region of the country that might be struggling at the time.
Current lead story over at the Daily Torygraph
[ICAC
PM’s chief of staff caught up in ICAC scandal]
MTBW @ 152
Almost finished reading the Latham Diaries for the first time – don’t quite know why because you know from page one that it’s going to end very badly.
However one of the things he does get right is his opinion of Eric Roozendaal as the epitome of the “stupidity and sheer indulgence of the factional system”.