Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

Slight movement in Labor’s favour in Newspoll’s latest voting intention numbers, but the one move outside the error margin is a three-point lift for the Greens.

GhostWhoVotes relates that Newspoll has come in at 52-48 in favour of Labor, up from 51-49 last time. Primary votes are 39% for the Coalition (down one), 35% for Labor (up one) and 14% for the Greens (up an improbable three). Bill Shorten’s personal ratings are back down again after an improvement last week, to 36% approval (down three) and 43% disapproval (up three), while Tony Abbott goes sideways to 35% approval and 54% disapproval (both down one). Abbott and Shorten are tied 37-all on preferred prime minister with a five-point increase for uncommitted, Shorten having led 40-39 last time. A further question finds 62% supporting the action taken by the government so far on Iraq, with 25% opposed. UPDATE: Full tables from The Australian.

Also out today was the regular fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll from Roy Morgan, this one encompassing 3089 respondents over the past two weekends. Coming off a particularly strong result for Labor last time, it has them down 1.5% to 37%, the Coalition up half a point to 38%, and the Greens and Palmer United steady on 10.5% and 4.5%. On the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, Labor’s lead is down from 55.5-44.5 to 54-46, while on the preference flows of the previous election (the method used by Newspoll) it’s down from 54-46 to 53-47. Follow the link above for breakdowns by age, gender and state.

UPDATE (Essential Research): This week’s fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research records an incremental move away from the Coalition, who are down a point on the primary vote to 39% with Labor steady on 38%, the Greens up one to 10% and Palmer United down one to 4%, but it’s not enough to shift two-party preferred, on which Labor’s lead remains at 52-48. Monthly personal ratings have Tony Abbott down two points on both approval and disapproval, to 35% and 52% respectively, while Bill Shorten records his best net rating since his honeymoon period with approval up one to 35% and disapproval down four to 36%. Shorten also nudges back into the lead as preferred prime minister, now leading 36-35 after trailing 37-36 last time.

Further questions find an even balance of support for Australian action in Iraq, with 38% approving and 39% disapproving of supplying arms to Kurdish forces, and 38% approving and 42% disapproving of sending military planes. Only 27% said they would approve of sending troops, with 54% disapproving, which becomes 45% and 36% if requested by the United Nations. For all that’s been said lately about the causes of the Coalition’s improvement in the polls, 55% said they had little or no trust in the government’s handling of international relations, compared with 36% for a lot or some.

Finally, 44% said they approved of the dumping of the mining tax, with 31% disapproving. This is in interesting contrast to more general questions that have been asked about tax, which have found support for mining companies paying more.

UPDATE 2: The Guardian reports on a McNair Ingenuity poll of 1004 respondents concerning performance and name recognition of cabinet ministers, which finds Julie Bishop taking the lead from Malcolm Turnbull as the most highly rated minister since the last such poll was conducted in December, at which time she ranked eighth out of 19. The other big movers are Scott Morrison (upwards, from eighteenth to sixth) and Joe Hockey (downwards, from third place to last). Tony Abbott is only ranked sixth among Coalition supporters and fourteenth among Labor voters, with Bishop topping the table for both.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,342 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. Boerwar

    I think that’s Porto Rico. Costa Rico looks too goddarn pinko commie progressive Liberal to have much US lurve.

    [ In 2012, Costa Rica became the first country in the Americas to ban recreational hunting ……Costa Rica is known for its progressive environmental policies, being the only country to meet all five criteria established to measure environmental sustainability…..In 2007, the Costa Rican government announced plans for Costa Rica to become the first carbon-neutral country by 2021.]

  4. I’ve just finished reading Steve Keen’s superb Debunking Economics. He makes two excellent suggestions for preventing asset bubbles.

    For the real estate market: Restrict a home buyer to borrowing no more than ten times the annual rental of the property. The rest of the purchase price must come from the buyer’s savings. This would put all home buyers on the same footing with regard to the maximum amount of debt they could take on to buy the asset. The difference would be the amount of savings which each buyer could bring to the table. This would prevent buyers from becoming over-leveraged and it would ensure a close link between the price of the asset and the income-generating capacity of the asset.

    For the stock market: Legislate two types of shares: Ordinary shares, and Jubilee shares. Ordinary shares are bought directly from the company, on the primary share market, and last forever. Once an ordinary share is sold to someone else (that is, sold on the secondary share market), it ceases to be an ordinary share and becomes a Jubilee share with a non-renewable lifespan 50 years. Fifty years after the shares were sold on the secondary market for the first time, the shares become worthless. They cease to exist. This would mean that investors would only buy secondary shares for the dividends they could potentially earn during the rest of the shares’ finite lifetime. Share prices on the secondary market would be closely connected to the income-generating capacity of the shares. Speculative investment would be discouraged.

    Brilliant!

  5. Boerwar@122

    [The one thing you will not get the opponents mentioning is that the air warfare destroyers are ALREADY three years overdue and ALREADY $600 million over budget. And none of them have hit the water yet.]

    Sounds like just about every other defense project. Boerwar, have you heard of the Strike Fighter?

    Also:

    There is an obvious strategic advantage in being able to service the craft at home
    Building here, we are shifting the average skill level of Australian manufacturing up a couple of points which is obviously why there is learning curve
    The military industrial complex are probably the biggest rent seekers of all, not a handful of workers at Port Adelaide

  7. Thanks again for the links, BK.

    Re single term Federal Governments: there have been 10 changes of Government in the past 90 years. Only one involved the end of a first term Government (Scullin, 1932). So on the basis of that history, you could say that a first term Government has a 90% chance of being reelected: http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Labor_Party#House_of_Representatives

    But it’s not that simple, that was then but this is now. I think the Sportbet odds implying a 62% chance of the return of the Abbott government are about right (that’s gut feel, not exhaustive research). The power of incumbency, election year goodies for the punters and relentless campaigning for the Government by the Murdochracy will be worth a couple of points that the Opposition will have to overcome.

    There were two single term Labor Governments before the 1920s, but that was before our two party system had consolidated in something like its present form.

    The history of the last 90 years also suggests that on average Governments last about 9 years / 3 terms. Hopefully that won’t happen for Abbott, otherwise we’ll be a third rate copy of the USA by the time of the next change.

  8. WWP

    There is a general rule that all crime is local when it comes to prosecutions. IE the NSW DPP cannot prosecute an offence committed in WA.

    Here is the actual legislation:

    [96GA Political donations by prohibited donors unlawful

    (1) It is unlawful for a prohibited donor to make a political donation.

    (2) It is unlawful for a person to make a political donation on behalf of a prohibited donor.

    (3) It is unlawful for a person to accept a political donation that was made (wholly or partly) by a prohibited donor or by a person on behalf of a prohibited donor.

    (4) It is unlawful for a prohibited donor to solicit another person to make a political donation.

    (5) It is unlawful for a person to solicit another person on behalf of a prohibited donor to make a political donation.

    Note. Section 96I makes it an offence for a person to do any act that is unlawful under this Division if the person is, at the time of the act, aware of the facts that result in the act being unlawful. Section 96J also provides for the recovery by the Authority of unlawful political donations.]

  9. I did my own research s 96GA and the question for the Fed Libs is whether or not the passing back to the NSW branch is caught – clearly it should be. if shellbell is right then the NSW police rather than ICAC should be investigating already.

  10. I wouldn’t mind if they stole the idea, but to use my exact words is a bit rough.

    Has Choice been reading my posts about Foxtel? Can I sue them for breaching copyright when they’re talking about copyright?

    “Australians wanting to watch the upcoming season of The Walking Dead will be paying up to 376 per cent more than people watching the same show in the United Kingdom,” Choice chief executive Alan Kirkland said.

    “Time and again we are seeing consumers hit with the ‘Australia tax’ on digital content. It’s clear the business models forced on consumers by local intermediaries are subjecting Australians to artificially high prices for overseas content.”
    …
    Choice has said the proposal amounts to the introduction of an industry-run internet filter.

    “We are concerned that the government is being influenced by the local cable industry to bring in laws that prop up outdated technology and business models at the expense of cheaper internet streaming services,” Mr Kirkland said.

    http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/digital-life-news/australians-pay-up-to-431-more-for-tv-shows-online-20140908-10dycn.html

  11. Shellbell I understand jurisdictional issues with criminal matters but I’m pretty sure if I commit or aid a crime in Sydney it won’t matter what level of government I’m involved with. I would be surprised if I would be away with it if I organized the crime from Canberra, or Perth. Obviously if I arranged it from Paris the cost and expense etc may mean I am not pursued until I visit home next.

  15. “@oliverlaughland: Bowen says that intelligence agencies provided him evidence that no-one – inc children- could be exempt from offshore processing #HRInquiry”

  16. [I would be surprised if ICAC does not recommend prosecutions against officers of FEF under NSW law.]

    Of course that would be trumped if s96GA and its surrounding provisions were declared invalid by the High Court.

  17. [No matter who wins November’s State election in Victoria, the current government wants to lock in its successors for years to come to protect the profits of James Packer’s Melbourne casino.

    The Napthine Government has tabled amendments to gaming laws which would guarantee Crown millions of dollars compensation if state legislation were to dent its profits at any time in the next three decades..]

    […the amendments make clear just how much compensation is on offer, and what kinds of changes would trigger a potential compensation payout.

    First, the government would be liable if it lifted an exemption that allows gamblers to smoke in Crown’s VIP gambling rooms.

    And secondly, it would liable if it made any changes to rules aimed at addressing problem gambling, such as lowering betting limits on tables, restricting access to ATMS, or installing pre-commitment technology on poker machines.

    Crown could claim up to $200 million during each term of government during that time, but can’t claim any amount below $1 million.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2014/s4083388.htm?site=melbourne

    The report on ABC’s AM today was more detailed, but there’s only audio available at present —

    http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2014/s4083675.htm

  19. You would have to think that FEF and various people in NSW Liberals were aiding and abetting breaches of the law. And FEF looks like it is making donations to NSW Libs on behalf of a prohibited donor?

  20. [Of course that would be trumped if s96GA and its surrounding provisions were declared invalid by the High Court.]

    Yes – that would be a very disappointing outcome. Although part of me thinks it should be possible to ban corporate donations but not individual donations. It would be very disappointing it a corporation had some kind of right to participate in democracy but equally disappointing if individuals could be excluded from democracy even if they are dodgy property developers.

  23. “@Kate_McClymont: #icac media room is chockers this morning as @barryofarrell returns to the scene of his political self immolation.”

  24. Wakefield

    I agree. There was some suggestion at ICAC of legal advice being given to the Fed libs or FEF.

    If it exists, I hope it emerges.

  25. Great. I’m glad my prediction from yesterday (Abbott getting his nose in front after a few ‘good’ /’better’ weeks of media management) was off. The oz’s report of this is once again great self parody of bias. Poll says Abbott is toast, so report that 20-25% will not give primaries to labor or liberal. Will turnbull move on Abbott? Where is the media speculation re: the leaks from cabinet and party room meetings? Where is the media fury and hysteria re: abbott’s office illegally overseeing federal funds from developers to NSW branches?

    Increase in greens vote possibly reflects under-polling last time, but also alp’s pissweakedness on asylum seekers and failure to capitalise on the disaster of the Abbott-hockey government (and the alp needs to start referring to it as that – hockey is poison for most of the electorate).

  29. One day after the Credlin Emails were released, and fearless investigative political journalist Michael Gordon has worked out the context: “Nothing to see here.”

    “… the fact that Credlin, arguably the country’s most powerful woman, emerged as one of the “mystery” figures in the email exchange, is news of sorts.

    But that is the extent of it. A little bit of smoke but no gun. All the emails reveal is Credlin doing her job, which in opposition focused heavily on finding people prepared to say the carbon tax was killing them.
    …
    The weakness of Labor’s case against Credlin was underscored by the Dreyfus statement. Despite the powerful opening, it went nowhere.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/peta-credlin-a-mystery-that-went-nowhere-20140908-10e3fr.html#ixzz3CltNiGhf ]

    Now there’s productivity for you! Who said the newspaper industry was a lumbering, stultified shadow of its former self, barely able to turn a dollar, much less earn one?

    I bet Michael didn’t even have to get up from his desk to sort it all out and come to the right conclusion.

    Based on exactly the same facts as youse or I can read, he comes to a diametrically opposed conclusion.

    Thank God for the Press Gallery!

    Gordon’s short piece, brilliant in its brevity, leaves only two questions to answer: who called him, and why are they so scared?

  30. BB

    Those quotes fro the Gordon article show breathtaking bias.

    1. The idea that this is about ‘labor’s case against credlin’ is stupid. It is the icac case – labor had been pretty quiet about it.
    2. The ‘Australia’s most powerful woman’ seems to suggest misogynist victimisation. I hope bishops b and j take note. Bronnie will kick her out of the house.
    3. The idea there is nothing to see is absurd. Credal in, her husband and presumably her nominal boss have helped direct federal donations from developers to NSW branches.

  32. As the Coalition has decided we’ll never need the speed of fiber to the home let’s look at what sent us to the moon

    [Apollo 11: The computers that put man on the moon

    The so-called Apollo Guidance Computer (AGC) used a real time operating system, .. It was more basic than the electronics in modern toasters that have computer controlled stop/start/defrost buttons. ……It had approximately 64Kbyte of memory and operated at 0.043MHz……At the time, IBM described the 6Mbyte programs it developed, to monitor the spacecrafts’ environmental and astronauts’ biomedical data, as the most complex software ever written]
    http://www.computerweekly.com/feature/Apollo-11-The-computers-that-put-man-on-the-moon
    .
    For the computer enthusiasts

    [Apollo Guidance Computer manual + program code + lunar landing module code pdfs]
    http://authors.library.caltech.edu/5456/1/hrst.mit.edu/hrs/apollo/public/archive/1689.pdf

    .
    http://authors.library.caltech.edu/5456/1/hrst.mit.edu/hrs/apollo/public/archive/1701.pdf.
    .
    http://authors.library.caltech.edu/5456/1/hrst.mit.edu/hrs/apollo/public/archive/1729.pdf

  33. Funny tweet

    [Scotland : “I’m leaving you…”
    Britain : “You can’t!”
    Scotland : “I’m leaving. It’s over.”
    Britain : “… I’m pregnant!!”
    #RoyalBaby
    2:13am – 9 Sep 14]

  35. “@AusHumanRights: #HRInquiry @GillianTriggs closing today’s hearing, the last hearing in this Inquiry. Thanks to everyone who came today.”

  37. Guytaur

    Not surprised that Clive is having his say

    [Member for Fairfax Clive Palmer called for Mr Brough’s resignation over his involvement in the James Ashby saga.

    Mr Palmer said it seemed Mr Brough had directed Mr Ashby to work through Mr Slipper’s diaries in search of information that may damage him.

    “It’s tantamount to break and enter – accessing information from a secure location,” Mr Palmer said.]

  39. victoria

    An interesting point lawyers can answer. If found accessing the diary by AFP investigation is a crime what impact if any does that have on the Slipper case.

    As the Americans are so fond of saying on tv drama “fruit of a poisonous tree”?

  41. [ EU Need for Russian Gas Via Ukraine Wanes as Stores Fill

    Europe’s reliance on Russian natural gas shipments via Ukraine is declining after the region pumped a record volume of the fuel into underground inventories, minimizing the risk of shortages during the coming winter.

    …Russia, which meets about 15 percent of Europe’s gas demand through Soviet-era pipelines across Ukraine, halted supplies to its neighbor on June 16 in a dispute over debt and prices, echoing similar spats in 2006 and 2009 that left European customers short of fuel.

    OAO Gazprom assumes countries that get their gas via Ukraine understood the possible risks in the spring and filled up storage sites at a faster pace,]

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-07/eu-need-for-russian-gas-via-ukraine-wanes-as-stores-fill.html

  42. Kate McClymont @Kate_McClymont · 1m

    In short, @barryofarrell is denying he is “the big man” with $120k Tim Owen campaigner manager texts to Mike Gallacher. It’s Tinkler #icac

  43. [ No matter who wins November’s State election in Victoria, the current government wants to lock in its successors for years to come to protect the profits of James Packer’s Melbourne casino.

    The Napthine Government has tabled amendments to gaming laws which would guarantee Crown millions of dollars compensation if state legislation were to dent its profits at any time in the next three decades..]
    And a future government is equally free to rescind the amendments and delete any compensation provision. It’s called sovereign risk but that is the risk which Crown takes when it gets into a dodgy deal with an outgoing government.

  44. BOF does rant against the SMH. Some twitter reaction

    “@bkjabour: @beneltham everyone is drinking macchiatos now anyway. Lattes so 2008”

    “@nicchristensen: I’m guessing we can put Barry O’Farrell in the anti-comic sans camp… #icac”

  45. Cameron told Scotland it would have to take its ‘share’ of the UK national debt in the event it became independent.

    It works the other way as well –

    [ Ownership of UK gold up for negotiation if Scotland votes “Yes”

    (Reuters) – An independent Scotland could lay claim to a part of the United Kingdom’s 310-tonne gold reserves if votes go in favour of the “Yes” campaign this month, with ownership of Britain’s bullion hoard up for negotiation along with other assets.

    “The distribution of the UK’s assets in the event of Scottish independence would be subject to negotiation between an independent Scottish Government and the continuing UK government,” a spokesman for the United Kingdom Treasury said on Monday.]

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/09/08/uk-scotland-independence-gold-idUKKBN0H312F20140908

  46. Raaraa@100

    A bit odd that both ALP and GRN has gained a total of 4% primary votes but this only translate to a 1% gain in TPP.

    I have seen this much commented on and the explanation is rounding. The +4 is not really +4 because in last fortnight’s poll the left parties would have been up to half a point above the published figure and then rounded down. This must be true for at least one of them or the 2PP last fortnight would have been 50:50.

    The +4 might be really +2 and a bit which might have gone almost entirely to the Greens and not Labor, and come almost entirely off Others. On that basis it checks out. I can actually get the 2PP gap between these two sets of primaries to below 0.8 using extreme scenarios but it is not necessary to go that far to get figures so that the gap will be 1 after the 2PPs are rounded.

  48. [If found accessing the diary by AFP investigation is a crime what impact if any does that have on the Slipper case]

    None – reopening cases is rarer than hen’s teeth.

    The usual rule:

    [“Once an order disposing of a proceeding has been perfected by being drawn up as the record of a court, that proceeding apart from any specific and relevant statutory provision is at an end in that court and is in its substance … beyond recall by that court”: Bailey v Marinoff (1971) 125 CLR 529 at 530.]

  49. Well timed announcement on Kate’s second pregnancy. Took one for the team? :p

    well hopefully she can lie back and think of England after the 18th :p

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