Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

No real change in Essential Research, but some interesting findings from both parties’ internal pollsters have emerged in the media this week.

This week’s fortnightly rolling average result from Essential Research has both major parties up a point on the primary vote (the Coalition to 40%, Labor to 38%), both minor parties down a point (the Greens to 9%, Palmer United to 5%), and two-party preferred unchanged at 52-48 to Labor. The poll also has 57% saying the threat to Australia from terrorism has increased over the past few years with only 6% saying it has decreased, and 33% opting for stayed about the same; 56% approving of government spending to reduce the threat of terrorism versus 24% disapproving; 57% rating the contribution of multiculturalism to Australian society as positive versus 30% negative; 63% believing prospective migrants should not be rejected on the basis of religion versus 21% who say they should; and strong support for a greater emphasis on solar, wind and hydro power in providing for domestic energy, a neutral result for gas, and highly negative results for nuclear and especially coal.

Federal electoral news nuggets:

• John Ferguson of The Australian reports Senators Stephen Conroy and Kim Carr are facing opposition within their respective Right and Left factions over their determination to seek another term at the next federal election. Partly at issue is Labor’s affirmative action requirement that at least 40 per cent of winnable seats go to women. Under a party rule to take effect on January 1, a spill of all preselections will occur if the requirement isn’t met. Rosie Lewis of The Australian reports that some in the ALP believe the Carr and Conroy preselections are being fast-tracked to lock them in before the rule takes effect. Carr is quoted saying the requirement will be satisfied by giving the third position on the ticket to a woman, but the result of the last election suggests the winnability of a third seat for Labor is doubtful for as long as the existing electoral system remains in place.

• The Courier-Mail reports that“federal Liberal and National MPs unhappy with the performance of Nationals deputy leader Barnaby Joyce” are planning to thwart his succession to the Nationals leadership by drafting Lawrence Springborg, the Queensland Health Minister and former Opposition Leader. This would be achieved by having Springborg succeed Bruce Scott as member for Maranoa, a seat Joyce had his eye on last term as he sought to make his move from the upper house to the lower.

• Andrew Probyn of The West Australian reports a Labor internal poll of 600 respondents by UMR Research shows it leading 54-46 in the eastern Perth electorate of Hasluck, held for the Liberals by Ken Wyatt on a margin of 4.9%. Primary votes are cited of 40% for Labor and 37% for the Liberals. Aggregated polling for the three months after the budget, from May to July, is reported to show swings to Labor in WA of 12 points on the primary vote and 7.7% on two-party preferred.

• The Financial Review reports results from Coalition pollsters Crosby Textor showing a surge in support for the Renewable Energy Target, an increase in the salience of the environment as a political issue, and a decline for immigration.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

833 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 4 of 17
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  1. Astrobleme

    The Greens do not make money-making movies. But they laud theft from peopole who do.

    The Greens do not invest capital in the Australian economy. But they do skive off the people who do.

    The Greens do not support investment in Australian military equipment. But the Greens are quite happy to skive off the people who do invest in military equipment.

    With all of this the Greens are happy to sit around bashing everyone else for lacking ethics.

  2. Boerwar

    You post is simply idiocy, it has no actual substance. You make a bunch of claims, with no support, then when people post evidence you declare it invalid.

    It’s moronic.

    Remember, if Greens voters average wage is the highest in Australia, shouldn’t it be possible have a greater proportion of the Economy?? If the 10% who vote Green have a higher average wage than the other 90%…

    I don’t know whether the Greens have more than 10% of the economy, but your claims about the size of the economy versus individuals net worth is a bit stupid, because the economy would include the Government…

  3. guytaur

    [ P1

    Here is more reality for you

    The MPAA tried to hide a piracy subreddit, but only made it more popular

    http://www.theverge.com/2014/6/26/5845636/mpaa-accidentally-made-piracy-subreddit-more-popular ]
    You should actually read the links you post. The end result of this was …

    [ But after seeing the takedown request, the subreddit’s creator changed its policies to only allow legal links and brought on a few moderators to clean the place up. ]

    Get it yet?

  4. Boerwar

    [Still, in your support for thieving the work of others, I give you guys ten out of ten for being both thieves and for being holier-than-thou about it.]

    Idiocy.

    I bet I work more than you, and earn more. I can’t steal any less, because I don’t steal. Nor do I support theft. Making grand claims about the ‘Greens’ is the kind of stupidity that Centre goes on about…

  6. Astrobleme

    10% of Australia’s wages does equal 10% of Australia’s conomy – not even remotely.

    You will have to do better than that.

  7. Boerwar

    [Astrobleme

    The Greens do not make money-making movies. But they laud theft from peopole who do.

    The Greens do not invest capital in the Australian economy. But they do skive off the people who do.

    The Greens do not support investment in Australian military equipment. But the Greens are quite happy to skive off the people who do invest in military equipment.

    With all of this the Greens are happy to sit around bashing everyone else for lacking ethics.]

    It’s like you’re 12 years old, shouting in the schoolyard.

  8. Boerwar

    [Astrobleme

    10% of Australia’s wages does equal 10% of Australia’s conomy – not even remotely.

    You will have to do better than that.]

    Did you even read what I wrote? Ok Boerwar

    I am satisfied you are an idiot, and have nothing to add to this discussion… Carry on with stupid slogans.

  9. I will just post what I wrote again, in the vain hope you may read and think

    [Remember, if Greens voters average wage is the highest in Australia, shouldn’t it be possible have a greater proportion of the Economy?? If the 10% who vote Green have a higher average wage than the other 90%…

    I don’t know whether the Greens have more than 10% of the economy, but your claims about the size of the economy versus individuals net worth is a bit stupid, because the economy would include the Government…]

    Now start at the top, read all the way, and think…

  11. BW
    [..not subsidised niche documentaries with Greens audiences..]

    Put the goalposts back where they started.
    You asked for name and film[s], I provided such.
    And others have given you hard info contradicting your …opinion .. on other related issues.

    Admit you were/are wrong and move on, a little bit better informed and maybe wiser.

    PS
    Did you miss the bit about 5 Aust Film awards and 2 academy nominations?

  12. [It’s also possible to steal someone’s stuff without denying them access to it. If while you’re at work, someone takes your car without your permission and then returns it before you realised it had gone missing, that’s still theft. Ferris Bueller was a thief.]

    Actually both the common law definition of theft and almost all modern statutory constructions include the element of intention to permanently deprive. This tends to be interpreted minimally, but if you can clearly establish an intention to return, and you treat the property like it belongs to someone else, then it’s not theft (in general).

  13. Astrobleme

    Your abuse is getting worse.

    (1) You have been utterly unable to demonstrate that the Greens invest in the Australian economy. In fact, the Greens skive off other people’s investment in the Australian economy. Consistent with this, the Greens policy documents are absolutely littered with disincentives to invest.

    (2) The Greens steal the IP off movie makers while not making movies that anyone wants to pay for. And then laud themselves for doing so.

    (3) The Greens do not support defence spending but skive off the safety provided by others.

  14. OK

    I have never on this site, even when Frank came, read such stupid stuff as the “greens” 10% of economy stuff. Labor gets 35-40% of the vote, but because they are workers obviously they do not “run” 35% of the economy.

    If BW what you are trying to say is something like = “Greens by and large are employed people, working in public sector jobs mostly immune from the exigencies of market forces” you might start to have a rational argument, although this applies MORE to ALP voters and members than to greens and probably only a little less to LNP.

    Now I know of Greens members who are doctors and presumably run their own business. The greens candidate in the recent Stafford by-election is a long time small businesswomen running a specialty bathroom retail shop.

  15. [This is a sleeper at the moment but will become a significant political issue when people think about it.]

    The whole deal done today means the Govt has to go to the next election vowing to axe the Kids Bonus, Low Income Super Changes and Income Support Bonus.

    All with the MRRT being history. Joe may have just drank his poisoned chalice from Palmer.

    [But the Treasurer would not “speculate” on how the $6.5 billion blow to the budget over the forward estimates would affect his push towards a surplus.

    “I’m not going to specualte on the surplus,” he said.”It does have a negative impact on the forward estimates – we’re dealing with that.”]

    Surely he knows he is waist deep in poo and the level is rising.

  16. WOW I couldn’t believe hearing Hockey on the radio on the way home (and given PLENTY of oxygen I might add) blaming Labor for their Super broken promise.

    Now I’m reading that the Greens make money making movies and their voters’ average wage is the highest in Australia?

    It’s getting more deluded-er by the second.

    Still, the Adam’s Family was a smash hit 😀

  18. fredex

    *laughs*

    So, I wonder how many Greens have illegally downloaded Bradbury’s films?

    As for the awards, pfffft. They are subsidised doccos, they did not pull the crowds, the taxpayers paid for them, and small ingroups pat each other on the back about them by playing footsies with the awards.

    What I was talking about was movies that people pay to go and watch in cinemas and that people steal from the makers of the movies.

    You know it makes sense.

  19. I think arguing about the political persuasions of the people in the creative industries – the ones who make movies, write books etc – is rather a side issue. However if anyone thinks it actually means something, I’m fairly confident that those industries will be disproportionately skewed to Greens supporters.

  20. Centre

    I am sorry to have to break the news to you but greens voters are definitely the best educated and while I am not certain about income, we know education correlates to income so YEP Centre, greens are probably the wealthiest on average voting cohort.

  21. Astrobleme, “moronic”, “idiocy” (twice), “it’s like you’re 12 years old”, “YAWN”, “you are boring”, “dumbo” and “a truly amazing level of stupid” are not the searing rhetorical zingers that you seem to think they are.

  22. Player One Posted Tuesday, September 2, 2014 at 5:17 pm @ 110

    Fiddle faddle. If you copy a manuscript that I am trying to publish, you have stolen my intellectual property.

    I have not stolen anything. You still have your intellectual property.

    I agree that somewhere between a few scrawled lines of a letter I have penned to a friend and my magnum opus that I intended to publish and live off there is a line that can be drawn where one is a significant theft and one is not. But exactly where that line is is not at all clear. What if I had also intended to publish my own collected letters? If you steal enough of my letters to publish such a volume yourself, then you have also stolen some substantial intellectual property from me.

    Again I have not stolen anything. You still have your manuscript. If I copy your manuscript and then publish it you have full recourse in the courts to pursue me for infringing your copyright. It’s exactly the same as if I infringe a patent or trademark you posses.

    Think about the word copyright for a moment. It’s made up of two words: copy and right. It means who has the right to make a copy. Basically the holder of the copyright has a monopoly over the right to reproduce (copy) the work. When I copy your letter (regardless of whether you intend to publish or not) I am infringing on your monopoly.

    Think about it another way. Was Men At Work stealing when they wrote Down Under? Are you stealing if you independently develop a product and the later finds it infringes someone else’s patent. Are companies in Australia who market ugg boots as ugg boots stealing because another company has obtained a trade mark on the name in the USA?

  23. Last time BW, you can have the last word if you desire.
    Bradbury’s films make money,lots, both here in Oz and internationally.
    Its one of the reasons his work has been nominated for 2 Academy awards.
    So your attempts to simultaneously sneer and shift the goalposts have failed.

  24. dtt

    Lordy, no, no.

    What I meant is that Greens don’t operate anything like remotely 10% of Australia’s business, do not invest capital in the economy, but are happy to tax business to buggery and are happy to provide a small mass of multifarious disincentives (see Greens online policy documents).

    I don’t know if the Greens have noticed it, but Australia has somewhat of a private sector investment crisis ATM. The causes are many but, I suppose, the failing private sector appetite for risk should suit the Greens.

    The Greens don’t generate commercial recreational IP but skive off it while bragging about same in sanctimonious ways.

    Finally, the Greens do not support investment in military equipment but skive off the security thus provided.

  25. Another deal in the offing?

    “Deal looms on wait for the dole under Newstart Allowance plans

    [UNEMPLOYED people under 30 would face a shorter wait for the Newstart Allowance payment than the six-month proposal unveiled in the budget, as the Abbott government prepares to compromise in order to get its controversial welfare reforms through the Senate…”]

    For those who don’t want to give the TeamAustralian a click, it is proposed that the waiuting period be one month, as in NZ, not 6.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/deal-looms-on-wait-for-the-dole-under-newstart-allowance-plans/story-fn59niix-1227044445723

  27. fredex
    I tried to look Bradbury up on the web but could get no information on whether any at all of his 21 documentaries got, say, a nationa commercial release.

  28. illiam

    [Astrobleme, “moronic”, “idiocy” (twice), “it’s like you’re 12 years old”, “YAWN”, “you are boring”, “dumbo” and “a truly amazing level of stupid” are not the searing rhetorical zingers that you seem to think they are.]

    They’re not supposed to be.
    Boerwar makes LITERALLY stupid claims, then won’t admit he’s wrong when people post replies…

    He has a problem.

    For example:

    [The Greens do not make money-making movies. But they laud theft from peopole who do.]

    It is just stupid.

    [The Greens do not invest capital in the Australian economy. But they do skive off the people who do.]

    And yet when we give examples to Boerwar he just claims they don’t count (Dick Smith, Graeme Wood). If that isn’t ‘stupidity’ then you may have to tell me what it is.

  29. [I intended feature films that people actually watched and which actually made money – not subsidised niche documentaries with Greens audiences.]

    And that perhaps is the greatest absurdity of all because to the extent there is good reason for economic and criminal sanction to encourage the generation of content and reward the developers it is most certainly the subsided niche documentary with social value justifying the protection.

  31. [The biggest predictor was an inverse relationship, and one that explained 55% of the variation in the Labor Party vote – it was the proportion of the electorate that classified themselves in the Census as working as a “Manager”. The higher the proportion of managers in an electorate, the lower was the ALP primary vote.]

    Possum Commitas 2010 and further

    [The biggest predictor was an inverse relationship, and one that explained 55% of the variation in the Labor Party vote – it was the proportion of the electorate that classified themselves in the Census as working as a “Manager”. The higher the proportion of managers in an electorate, the lower was the ALP primary vote.]

  32. [It’s also possible to steal someone’s stuff without denying them access to it. If while you’re at work, someone takes your car without your permission and then returns it before you realised it had gone missing, that’s still theft. Ferris Bueller was a thief.
    Actually both the common law definition of theft and almost all modern statutory constructions include the element of intention to permanently deprive. This tends to be interpreted minimally, but if you can clearly establish an intention to return, and you treat the property like it belongs to someone else, then it’s not theft (in general).]

    And it is exactly this reason joyriding was made an offence on its own.

    Many seemed to have been sucked into the rhetoric of the movie industry.

  33. Boerwar

    [What I meant is that Greens don’t operate anything like remotely 10% of Australia’s business, do not invest capital in the economy, but are happy to tax business to buggery and are happy to provide a small mass of multifarious disincentives (see Greens online policy documents).

    I don’t know if the Greens have noticed it, but Australia has somewhat of a private sector investment crisis ATM. The causes are many but, I suppose, the failing private sector appetite for risk should suit the Greens.

    The Greens don’t generate commercial recreational IP but skive off it while bragging about same in sanctimonious ways.

    Finally, the Greens do not support investment in military equipment but skive off the security thus provided.]

    Can you at least provide some evidence for these assertions?

    What does it mean for [Greens] to [operate anything like remotely 10% of Australia’s business] and where do you get your statistics. Making them up doesn’t count.

  34. daretotread

    The Greens, the best educated?

    That is fair dinkum delusional!

    Your average would be dramatically pulled down by all the pot smoking hippies at Byron Bay regardless.

  36. William

    I would suggest that this comment from Centre is also stupid.

    [The Greens, the best educated?

    That is fair dinkum delusional!]

    When provided with the knowledge that statistics exist he’d rather ignore them and claim that it is delusional to think so.

  38. Astrobleme

    In terms of the virtual absence of Greens from the investment side, and business operational side of Australia’s GDP, I am working off the generally anti-Greens views of all the peak Austalian business bodies; most, if not all industry associations, and most, if not all, industry lobby groups*.

    * the single exception that I can think of are those receiving government subisidies to instal solar panels and the like.

  39. Centre

    [Your average would be dramatically pulled down by all the pot smoking hippies at Byron Bay regardless.]

    Hang on now. That’s a bit anti-byron bay. Most of the hippies are at Nimbin.

  40. One thing I have noticed is that Greens seem to have all but given up on debating policy.

    Today we have had the greatest attack on workers super since Howard dropped his support for 15%.

    I realise Astrobleme has a conflict of interest, but surely others have a view of today’s Senate disgrace?

  42. Boerwar

    [In terms of the virtual absence of Greens from the investment side, and business operational side of Australia’s GDP, I am working off the generally anti-Greens views of all the peak Austalian business bodies;]

    You’re just making stuff up is what you’re doing.

  43. [I realise Astrobleme has a conflict of interest, but surely others have a view of today’s Senate disgrace?]

    What happened I was busy creating IP and trying to coax some thought out of the copyright is theft robots?

  45. Astro

    Where is your proof that Greens voters are the best educated?

    You half yellow half blue full mooners must learn to distinguish fact from fantasy first.

  46. I expect you are all aware by now that 7.30 is to be avoided tonight. Abbott enjoying a warm bath and a rubdown.

    abc730 ‏@abc730 4m
    Tonight on #abc730: @CUhlmann interviews @TonyAbbottMHR about the mining tax, Iraq and more; & the fmr Qld cop being investigated for fraud.

  47. Ruawake

    No, actually I am pretty dismayed by what has happened today and spoke to many people in my workplace. They’re all pretty dismayed too. I wouldn’t say I have a conflict of interest as my mine is making no money anyway… Cost blowouts you know. And I support the MRRT.

    You’ll be happy to know Clive has lost control of our Port now, so the good guys won!

    As to the policy debates. they rarely come up here.

    I was just responding to Boerwar’s made up ‘facts’

  48. [Here are some ‘nice’ things unionists say on twitter about supporters of Scottish independence….]

    Astrobleme, take note. Here’s how it’s done.

    [william thom @jeromeslick · Aug 29
    @ETimsNet @krys1888 your a fuck faced cunt ya tosser salmond is a granny shagging pervert]

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