This week’s fortnightly rolling average result from Essential Research has both major parties up a point on the primary vote (the Coalition to 40%, Labor to 38%), both minor parties down a point (the Greens to 9%, Palmer United to 5%), and two-party preferred unchanged at 52-48 to Labor. The poll also has 57% saying the threat to Australia from terrorism has increased over the past few years with only 6% saying it has decreased, and 33% opting for stayed about the same; 56% approving of government spending to reduce the threat of terrorism versus 24% disapproving; 57% rating the contribution of multiculturalism to Australian society as positive versus 30% negative; 63% believing prospective migrants should not be rejected on the basis of religion versus 21% who say they should; and strong support for a greater emphasis on solar, wind and hydro power in providing for domestic energy, a neutral result for gas, and highly negative results for nuclear and especially coal.
Federal electoral news nuggets:
• John Ferguson of The Australian reports Senators Stephen Conroy and Kim Carr are facing opposition within their respective Right and Left factions over their determination to seek another term at the next federal election. Partly at issue is Labor’s affirmative action requirement that at least 40 per cent of winnable seats go to women. Under a party rule to take effect on January 1, a spill of all preselections will occur if the requirement isn’t met. Rosie Lewis of The Australian reports that some in the ALP believe the Carr and Conroy preselections are being fast-tracked to lock them in before the rule takes effect. Carr is quoted saying the requirement will be satisfied by giving the third position on the ticket to a woman, but the result of the last election suggests the winnability of a third seat for Labor is doubtful for as long as the existing electoral system remains in place.
• The Courier-Mail reports that“federal Liberal and National MPs unhappy with the performance of Nationals deputy leader Barnaby Joyce” are planning to thwart his succession to the Nationals leadership by drafting Lawrence Springborg, the Queensland Health Minister and former Opposition Leader. This would be achieved by having Springborg succeed Bruce Scott as member for Maranoa, a seat Joyce had his eye on last term as he sought to make his move from the upper house to the lower.
• Andrew Probyn of The West Australian reports a Labor internal poll of 600 respondents by UMR Research shows it leading 54-46 in the eastern Perth electorate of Hasluck, held for the Liberals by Ken Wyatt on a margin of 4.9%. Primary votes are cited of 40% for Labor and 37% for the Liberals. Aggregated polling for the three months after the budget, from May to July, is reported to show swings to Labor in WA of 12 points on the primary vote and 7.7% on two-party preferred.
• The Financial Review reports results from Coalition pollsters Crosby Textor showing a surge in support for the Renewable Energy Target, an increase in the salience of the environment as a political issue, and a decline for immigration.
I liked this comment.
[People are going to be a lot happier with the mining tax gone once the savings flow through to their monthly iron ore bill.]
Антоний Георгиев @manthatcooks
Seems odd to see nominal ALP supporters cite the political views of Murdoch or the managerial class in general as hallmarks of virtue but I suppose I should admire the intelectual flexibility.
Here’s the old Possum post where the correlation between Greens vote and employment in creative, IT and education industries is demonstrated: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2010/04/15/class-voting-and-broad-left-demography/
The correlation between average level of education and Greens vote is also well established.
Seems the economy expanded possible 3% tomorrow expected, budget emergency?
You name it. Abbott cuts it. Unless it’s the military.
[The Red Cross will shed 500 staff after the immigration department cut its asylum seeker case load.
In a leaked email to all staff, Red Cross chief executive Robert Tickner shared the “deeply disappointing” news.
“This is not the outcome that we had hoped for and we share the shock and dismay you will be feeling about this news,” he said.
The email says 500 jobs will go by February because the immigration department is slashing client numbers from 12,000 to 5,000 by June.
The organisation is one of seven involved in administration of the asylum-seeker assistance scheme and community assistance support program.
The programs help asylum seekers access healthcare, counselling, accommodation, clothing and furniture, education, legal services and social support.]
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/02/red-cross-to-lose-500-jobs-after-coalition-cuts-asylum-seeker-case-load
Maybe the fact that summer is over is making the English a wee grumpy
“Nauru and Manus Island are untenable. The new Indonesian president, Joko Widowo, may be less compliant on turn-backs. And Morrison isn’t savvy enough to see what’s coming.”
[Already there are signs that the Pacific Solution is fast approaching its endgame. Last month a departmental official told a parliamentary committee that no asylum seekers have been sent to Manus Island since February, and this reflected a request from the Papua New Guinean government.
The customs boat Ocean Protector kept 157 asylum seekers imprisoned at sea for nearly a month. The fact that they were not immediately dispatched to Nauru is as clear an indication as any that the “solution” of dumping people on the guano outcrop is fast approaching its finite point.]
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/02/the-pacific-solution-is-reaching-its-endgame-scott-morrison-will-soon-run-out-of-options
So you might need a certain level of education NOT to vote for the major parties – big whoop!
[All of this has left the Abbott government somewhat hamstrung. In its eagerness to get behind US policy in Iraq, it has discovered to its chagrin that no broader policy exists to support.]
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/02/australia-must-be-sceptical-the-us-has-no-strategy-in-iraq-for-us-to-support
Can any one party claim to own 10% of the economy?
Prove it.
I think Ackland’s suggestions are of merit. Thanks for the link lizzie.
Apologies if earlier posted.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-slaps-down-joe-hockey-after-stoush-over-wa-gst-anger-20140902-10bblr.html
[Mr Hockey was said to have taken a dim view of the complaint and chose to attack Mr Barnett instead, declaring that WA was the worst performing government in the Commonwealth when it came privatising infrastructure.]
Raara
Thanks for the ‘feel the love’ link.
[Mr Hockey was said to have taken a dim view of the complaint and chose to attack Mr Barnett instead, declaring that WA was the worst performing government in the Commonwealth when it came privatising infrastructure.]
Excluding obviously the Federal Government which is less competent and breaking more promises than even the emperor.
Willaim
This was the quote I missed
[What is the cause of Greens voters living in the inner cities?
One thing that may help explain it is occupation. If we use the census data to sum together the people in each electorate that work in the three categories of Arts & Recreation Services, Information Media & Telecommunications and Education – and then scatter that against the Greens primary vote across 150 electorates, this is what we get:
The proportion of people working in these three industry sectors explains 51% of the variation in the Green’s primary vote. ]
Well, thanks for clearing that up, dtt…
So no mining tax – what will labor have to show for 7 years, the apology I guess ? Can’t think of anything else that will be left.
Compare and contrast with Howard – labor left it all pretty much untouched.
[strong support for a greater emphasis on solar, wind and hydro power in providing for domestic energy, a neutral result for gas, and highly negative results for nuclear and especially coal.]
ALP should hammer this one. Or I guess you could leave this very popular issue to the GRNs :p
[Crosby Textor showing a surge in support for the Renewable Energy Target, an increase in the salience of the environment as a political issue, and a decline for immigration.]
Many jobs involve managing / guiding small teams from time to time. Most experienced / long standing workers have do do it from time to time. Maybe there’s a correlation between wanting to describe yourself as a ‘manager’ and voting Liberal. Most Right Wingers see the workd in terms of hierarchies and they aspire to be as high as they can go.
I’m just glad WorkChoices is dead and buried. Or is it?
What’s it with LNP and “Choices”?
[So no mining tax – what will labor have to show for 7 years]
At least they didn’t have to cook up a war to cover their pathetic home policy agenda.
[Astrobleme, take note. Here’s how it’s done.
william thom @jeromeslick · Aug 29
@ETimsNet @krys1888 your a fuck faced cunt ya tosser salmond is a granny shagging pervert]
I’m unsure William, is this for or against Scottish independence?
Re MikeHillard @229: touche
Just for Centre
The following from that well known person who knows nothing about politics, psephology or sociology – – you know Andrew something – a colour I think
[Here you see the explanation of the wide ranges of Green support at all levels of Labor 2PP support. I’ve coloured points red or blue based on whether the seat is Labor or Coalition held. As you can see, with both Labor and Liberal seats, the level of Green support rises with the proportion of an electorate’s population that is University educated.
Clearly demonstrated is the big difference between the three safe Labor Melbourne electorates with huge Green votes, Melbourne, Batman and Wills, and the three equally safe Labor seats with low Green support, Lalor, Gorton and Scullin. The three outer suburban seats are clustered bottom left, low in University educated residents and low in Green support, while the inner-city electorates lie in the opposite corner, high in both Green support and proportion university educated residents.
This isn’t saying going to University makes you vote Green. A University education often leads to higher income as well, which gives people greater opportunity to choose where they live. As with all social data, there are lots of inter-relationships going on which does not justify simplistic ‘x causes y’ analysis]
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2012/09/the-greens-versus-labor-geographic-and-educational-dimensions.html
Seems the media have moved on from wars, could not get a lead in the news for love or money. 🙂
On the economic front:
Interest were again (as expected) kept on hold by the RBA today at 2.5%.
The ASX200 was very strong in afternoon trade piling on 28 points to finish at 5658.
Let’s be honest, with interest rates so low and property prices so high, it is no surprise to see the market powering ahead 😎
[So no mining tax – what will labor have to show for 7 years, the apology I guess ? Can’t think of anything else that will be left.}
Yeah just saving Australia from the GFC (tens of thousand of families stil have jobs compared to OS),the NBN, the NDIS, Plain packaging saving thousands of lives, the succesful reduction of emissions under the CO2price, the apology, first even mat leave scheme etc etc.
Whats Abbott achieved? Abolished a few things, including a succesfull CO2 reduction schdmejust as the rest of the worlds ratchets up action (moron!), and reduced government income by abolishing by a mining tax at a time when he claims there’sa budget crisis,introduced the worst received budget of ALL TIME, been the least popular first term government of ALL TIME, established himself beyond contestation as our worst ever PM within 10 months.
Youre right – its no contest.
The more concrete you see each day, the more likely you are to vote Green.
If you’ve got Crikey subscription, this is funny.
http://www.crikey.com.au/2014/09/02/department-of-australia-5/
@EDJ/216
So with no MRRT to use for next election, what will Coalition Party have left to argue for? They can’t argue debt, because every day they are government is a new debt.
What about water prices or shortages? How does removing both Carbon and MRRT will decrease our every day items that we buy? Let alone our rates?
Removing MRRT or Carbon “Tax” does nothing in the grand scheme of things.
daretotread
It’s trendy for the inner city latte sippers to vote Greens – that is all!
Collectively, their level of education attained may be slightly higher on average than others elsewhere BUT they’re still dumb enough to vote L-OO-N.
They’re anti capitalists for dog’s sake 🙂
Related to 227
http://www.rferl.org/content/persian-letters-high-speed-internet-unislamic/26553305.html
Well no deaths caused by a flagrant breach of health and safety laws for one zoidy.
It does seem the royal commissions will as intended reveal the truth that went on under labor. It could be an opportunity for a reset by labor
Steve777@221
A reference to 8 posts ahead! Time travel?
[The more concrete you see each day, the more likely you are to vote Green.]
Except if you live in a sea/tree change locale.
Centre
You should actully read the extracts I posted. Possum showed that it was the jobs they did that defined the greens not their location. They were in education, IT and the Arts.
@edj/231
That is incorrect.
http://www.9news.com.au/national/2014/08/30/18/18/workplace-health-and-safety-investigate-queensland-tree-fall-death
Also, cutting red tape means basically removing health and safety laws.
Further EDJ.
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/workplace-health-and-safety-queensland-figures-reveal-2765-constructionrelated-complaints-in-the-201314-financial-year/story-fnihsrf2-1227011293058
“A WHSQ spokesman said there had been 10 work-related deaths, the same as 2012-13 and one less than 2011-12. There has been a horror start to the new financial year, with two fatal accidents in the past week. A 64-year-old worker, Colin Rosenlund, died at Fortitude Valley last Sunday after falling into a trench and being smothered by a dirt wall, while Whareheera “Fuddy” Te Amo, a 61-year-old roofer, perished after plunging 6m at a Cooroy construction site on Tuesday. Investigations are continuing into both incidents.”
Where’s the apology from federal labor over pink batts ? Innocent workers died zoidy
“It’s trendy for the inner city latte sippers to vote Greens”. That’s the sort of cliche-ridden sentence which wouldn’t be out of place in a Janet Albrechtsen or Miranda Devine feelpinion. Do I need to say any more?
Yoofs such as yourself died zoidy
daretotread
refer to 207.
It’s a silly argument anyway.
Take Greens policies as the benchmark:
How loony would you have to be to disadvantage our trade exposed industries to Green CO2 reduction targets for no material benefit to the planet?
And it goes on…from an open borders policy to shutting down the mining industry – not to mention a stock up of water pistols as our primary source for defence.
Re Bemused @233: not time travel, but fat clumsy fingers on an iPhone keyboard. It was meant to refer to 220.
B.C.@172
Did you steal something from me? Yes, you did. To understand what, let’s go right back to some of the very, very first laws of copyright … they may be simple enough for you to comprehend. From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statute_of_Anne
[ The British Statute of Anne (1710) further alluded to individual rights of the artist. It began, “Whereas Printers, Booksellers, and other Persons, have of late frequently taken the Liberty of Printing… Books, and other Writings, without the Consent of the Authors… to their very great Detriment, and too often to the Ruin of them and their Families”. … A right to benefit financially from the work is articulated, and court rulings and legislation have recognized a right to control the work, such as ensuring that the integrity of it is preserved. ]
If you breach my copyright, you are taking away my right to benefit financially from my work. In short, you are stealing my income.
As I have said before, justify your theft to yourself however you like … “big corporations won’t notice” … “they charge too much anyway” … “property is theft” … but don’t make the mistake of believing you are not materially damaging the people you are stealing from.
edwina
The RC was a kangaroo court. The ALP will have their turn to set a RC up for Abbott. His turn is coming.
There is definitely a correlation between IQ and political persuasion in the US, mainly because liberals (small l), atheists and monogamists have higher IQs and also tend to vote Democrat (and I’d imagine are over-represented amongst Greens).
Steve777@243
😀 Guessed that, but couldn’t resist. 😛
[Where’s the apology from federal labor over pink batts ? Innocent workers died zoidy]
I am pretty sure Mr Rudd did that years and years ago. But he really shouldn’t have shonky employers killed their staff, in contracts with householders, all the government did was fund the householder. The Royal Commission is the biggest waste of money, the biggest political farce we have ever seen in this country. It is laughable and anyone working for the royal commission should be ashamed of themselves.
Those yoofs deaths were not the fault of the ALP government. It was the employers and in at least once case, the worker who refused to follow direct OH&S instructions. The Scheme requited every installer to have a OH&S White Card. Any worker who followed the White Card training would not died installing insulation.
Their deaths were their own fault, as hard on the parents as that is to acknowledge. If someone dies speeding in his car, which is the direct equivalent of the deaths in those roofs, you do not blame the road-builder.
The families should not get any compensation, and these deaths should be used in OH&S training as prime examples of how to kill yourself by not following your legal responsibilities under Oh&S legislation.
@EDJ/238
Did John Howard apologized for the accidents over the Work For the Dole accidents, especially when someone is biased.
Its pitta-full to point the finger at Labor ONLY, edj.