BludgerTrack: 51.6-48.4 to Labor

Another placid week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, suggesting a new equilibrium has been struck between the government’s budget disaster and MH17 recovery.

The only national poll this week was the regular weekly Essential Research, which is joined in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate by Galaxy’s result from Queensland. That adds up to no change whatsoever on two-party preferred, but the Greens are up on the primary vote at Labor’s expense. There’s some shifting of the deckchairs on the seat projection, with Labor down one in New South Wales and Victoria and up one in Queensland and Western Australia, but it cancels out on the total score. Nothing new this week for leadership ratings, which serves as a sad reminder that in the past we would have expected Nielsen to come due this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,032 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.6-48.4 to Labor”

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  1. To those posters who were getting David Rowe cartoon it is probably stored on you computer, you need to flush your dns
    many examples if you do a search, below are a couple

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  2. rua

    [Eastman was free on bail for nearly all of the 3 year trial process.]

    People who lived in the Bega Flats were just as enthusiastic about this as they were about him being there in the first place.

  3. [Eastman v Director of Public Prosecutions [No 2]

    Citation:

    [2014] ACTSCFC 2

    Hearing Dates:

    14, 15, 24 July 2014

    Decision Date:

    22 August 2014

    Before:

    Rares J, Wigney J, Cowdroy AJ

    Decision:

    The Court orders that:

    (1) the conviction of David Harold Eastman for the murder on 10 January 1989 of Colin Stanley Winchester be quashed

    (2) there be a new trial of David Harold Eastman on the charge of murder
    ]

    http://www.courts.act.gov.au/supreme/judgment/view/8380/title/eastman-v-director-public-prosecutions

  4. davidwh

    [But Fran you are always at your best and you could never be considered mediocre.]

    It’s charming that you should say so. At least, I assume you mean to be charming. In theory, if one’s best fell short of mediocrity, that statement would yet be credible.

    😉

    Naturally, I always strive to be my best, but here and there, I’m painfully aware that I’ve fallen well short.

  5. rua

    None of those factors, even if found by the Court of Appeal, outweigh a finding of a strong circumstantial case (which was found).

    Maybe he will get bail but it should be resisted like it would for any other citizen staring down the barrel of a murder charge in Australia.

  7. [CTar1
    Posted Friday, August 22, 2014 at 2:53 pm | PERMALINK
    rua

    for murdering Colin Winchester quashed by full bench of ACT Supreme Court

    The re-trail should consign him to the Treasury basement where he’ll actually be useful.]

    As Eastman has a Treasury background, perhaps Hockey could employ him to convince the cross bench senators to pass the budget.

  8. citizen

    [As Eastman has a Treasury background]

    And was considered an up and comer until he fell out with John Stone (IIRC) … which is what, it’s said, sent him off the rails.

  9. rua

    Typical rude response.

    The Court of Appeal has departed from the Martin report on the question of the retrial so that is the bail context.

  10. Eastman:

    I’d forgotten that Bob Barnes was the forensics witness.

    He was also the guy that said the sound proofing in the Torana belonging to the Chamberlain’s was a blood stain.

  11. [Typical rude response.]

    Yep got it in one.

    By the way it was not the Court of Appeal. It was the Full Bench of the ACT Supreme Court. It was not an appeal. It was instigated by the Supreme Court. The a judicial review of the case occurred.

    Eastman had been denied an appeal by the High Court (funny how pages of transcripts went missing).

  12. Maybe Eastman can live in the rented premises he sued the ACT Housing Authority for evicting him from while he was in gaol

  15. [Eastman pushing ahead with his opposition to bail conditions proposed by prosecutors.]

    Being a contrarian has never helped his cause.

  16. shellbell

    [Maybe Eastman can live in the rented premises he sued the ACT Housing Authority for evicting him from while he was in gaol]

    Wheelan the Wrecker (or one of his clones) has visited since.

  18. As usual I won’t be watching Q&A on Monday but by the advertised ‘guest’ list watchers should expect to see Gareth Evans slaughter Paul Kelly.

  19. A bit of history from 2004

    [And Opposition Foreign Affairs spokesman Kevin Rudd said the charges of indecent assault against Health Minister Tony Abbott were of no interest to Labor.

    Mr Abbott told the newspaper the allegation was ”a long time ago – and it was a completely fictional incident” designed to embarrass him.

    The newspaper also revealed Mr Abbott bent a street sign while celebrating after his final year economics exam, and was spotted by two policemen. No conviction was recorded against him.

    Mr Rudd said Labor was not interested in either incident.

    ”The bottom line is we are not interested in Tony Abbott’s personal assault,” he told the Seven Network.

    ”What we are interested (in) is Tony Abbott’s policy assault on Medicare and bulk billing and collapsing bulk billing rates around the country, that’s where the policy debate’s at in the country.

    ”I think if you ask the Australian people as we head to this next election about the choices they face about rebuilding Medicare, rebuilding bulk billing and affordable higher education and doing something about HECS fees, frankly that’s what they’re concerned about.]

  20. CTar1

    Might be worthwhile watching this time around

    Gareth Evans – Former Australian Foreign Minister
    Paul Kelly – Editor-at-large The Australian
    Elizabeth Pisani – Author and Indonesia commentator
    Tasneem Chopra – Chair, Australian Muslim Women’s Centre for Human Rights
    Ali Alizadeh – Iranian-Australian author and academic

  21. Dee

    We even had JBishop speaking with Blewitt, the man involved in the AWU matter. You can bet your bottom dollar that the same people involved in pursuingJGillard in the AWU matter, are working on getting this person to take the matter further througha civil avenue. Remember it is not to get any perceived justice or the truth, but to damage Shorten

  22. Abbott spends $4.3 million on spin doctors

    He should ask for his money back then!
    ————————————————

    I remember a blogger, Sean T, making issue that Labor was paying $1.2 million for all the media employed by Federal Depts Australia wide

  25. Victoria

    [Remember it is not to get any perceived justice or the truth, but to damage Shorten]

    Of course!

    The Coalition shock jock dogs will do the dirty work.

    OH said the carry on about it on Sunrise this morning was sickening with the commentators questioning whether Shorten is really innocent or not….no-one really knows.

    OH said, the whole segment was promoting doubt.

  26. Sunrise is part of the government shock-jock group?

    Must admit I haven’t watched it for a long time but they never used to be kindly to AbbottInc.

  27. When Abbott was elected he was gung ho about a DD, now worries mate fair dinkum, we will be off to the polls quicker than you can say man date.

    What happened. 😆

  31. Dee

    Labor should learn from the experience of JGillard and fhe AWU affair. I would be confident that the same people who courted Blewitt, will have already done so with the person who made these allegations.

  34. I’m not sure what Labor can do about these attacks on Shorten, just as it’s hard to work out what they were meant to do about the attacks on Gillard.

    If someone is smeared unfairly, their only recourse is to sue. It doesn’t make the smear go away, or undo the damage – though if Shorten could prove that the allegation stopped him becoming PM he might really be able to clean up!

    I can understand the angst about the situation expressed here, but I’m not sure what anyone thinks can be done about it.

  36. When Abbott was elected he was gung ho about a DD, now worries mate fair dinkum, we will be off to the polls quicker than you can say man date.

    What happened.

    POLLS

  38. Victoria

    It perplexes me as to why Slipper doesn’t dump the crap on Rabbott. Remember, Rabbott use to confide in Slipper.

  40. Zoomster

    I am not sure either. But based on what has occurred in the most recent past, i dont think the nefarious forces will go away quietly

  42. Zoomster

    Yes I agree the personal attacks are hard to deal with. It may be difficult but I think Labor should hire private detectives to follow every journalist and senior boffin at news limited/ABC and Lib. Get the dirt on them and publish, every time they dump on a labor leader. Return like for like.
    if News Ltd dumps of Shorten a big media spread on Wendy Deng or Lachlan Murdoch Not pretty but i see no other option.

    Of course legislating to make publishing of unsubstantiated personal gossip illegal or at least subject to damages 9without litigation) might be another option.

  44. Rua #956

    Thanks for the link.

    Anyone commenting on the Eastman case who has not read the inquiry Terms of Reference would be arguing from well behind the eight ball.

    Had the original trial been presented with all the evidence the notion of a strong circumstantial case would not have arisen.

    The manipulation of evidence by the DPP, the missing transcripts, and the totality of the gun and residue evidence available but not adduced makes the whole sorry saga smell to high heaven.

    I’ll be surprised if Eastman gets reconvicted.

  45. I can’t see any of this hurting Shorten. Someone waits 30 years and makes allegations when he suddenly becomes Opposition Leader? Really?

  46. Bailleau anounces his retirement
    _______________________
    The coming state elections will see the former Premier depart from politics
    He holds a safe Liberal seat…Hawthorn
    When he had a victory in 2010…rather a fluke 4 years ago…he was seen in the Liberal tradition here as a “small l” Libs in the style of Hamer
    There is a strong tradition in Melb of such leaders(not of course Kennett or Bolte)
    from recent disclusures we know he hates the far right grouped around Bernie Finn…a mad anti-abortionist …real Tea Party stuff
    He won by the smallest possible majority 45-43…and was in conflict with the small but growing far right wing in the party
    He supported abortion reform under Labor and won the enmity of the hardliners who later grouped around Shaw (and Finn) the dissident MP for Frankston,whose financial improprieties helped to bring down Bauilleau,and dogged the Napthine Govt last months

    Before he became Premier his critics used to say that he was lazy,,,but perhaps” laid back” might be a better word

    He is after all the richest man in the parliament and has all the advantages of “old money” and a great house on the Peninsula at Portsea…a kind of family estate.splendid boat..the works! ..very much like Downton Abbey really…. …so why would he want to be premier of Victoria (which he lost anyway )
    So he goes off to a doubtless happy retirement,while Napthine staggers on to what seems like a very likely defeat

    “History ” as Voltaire said”makes it’s own jokes”

  47. DN

    [Maybe Slipper has had enough. Not everyone has the grudge-holding stamina of PBers ]

    Perhaps!

    If a good and close friend used me as a pawn to further their career. Orchestrated circumstances that had me fighting for oxygen on all fronts, sending me bankrupt and halting IVF treatment because of the stress & funds I wouldn’t be so forgiving.

  50. 20 years for the crap about Gillard and the AWU, 30 years for this about Shorten.

    Yet the Libs/right wing got all twisted out of shape when someone raised Abbott’s charges.

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