BludgerTrack: 51.6-48.4 to Labor

Another placid week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, suggesting a new equilibrium has been struck between the government’s budget disaster and MH17 recovery.

The only national poll this week was the regular weekly Essential Research, which is joined in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate by Galaxy’s result from Queensland. That adds up to no change whatsoever on two-party preferred, but the Greens are up on the primary vote at Labor’s expense. There’s some shifting of the deckchairs on the seat projection, with Labor down one in New South Wales and Victoria and up one in Queensland and Western Australia, but it cancels out on the total score. Nothing new this week for leadership ratings, which serves as a sad reminder that in the past we would have expected Nielsen to come due this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,032 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.6-48.4 to Labor”

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  1. [He stupidly tried ‘a Beatie’ which probably only works north of the Tweed and then only if you are Peter Beatie.]

    Doesn’t even work north of the Tweed anymore. After numerous insincere apologies even the thickest Banana-benders can spot a fraud.

    It’s why Rudd’s 2013 Beattie Plan failed.

  2. Zoom

    [including some who considered themselves – at least at the time – as his friends.]

    I could could be really cruel and demand that you make a list of Kevin’s ex-best friends.

  3. [Since we had a comment, last night I think it was, from bk that Reachtel were in the field, when do they usually release?]

    A lot of the time they don’t. Thursday is the right night for it to have been one of their polls for Seven, in which case it will probably be with us Monday evening, but they also do a lot of polling privately for clients.

  4. Darren Laver

    Home on Sunday, first port of call on Monday, doctor ten find a good physiotherapist or osiotherapist. What is the difference?

  5. MTBW

    I realised that by listening to Rudd himself, and because he didn’t deny the allegations being put to him, which I kept expecting him to do.

    A really basic law of politics is that if someone is saying something about you that is untrue – in Rudd’s case, that he had made deals with the pokies industry, just as one example – then you deny it as soon as possible, because otherwise the headline is “X refused to deny…” or “X did not rule out…”

    When it was suggested Gillard had leaked against Rudd, she immediately came out and said that any journo she had leaked to could come out and say so. Rudd’s reaction in the same situation was to remind journos to protect their sources.

    In a similar vein – but much later, I admit – many supporters of same sex marriage were shocked when Rudd voted against it, saying that he had given them personal assurances that he supported it.

    There’s a pattern of behaviour there, and it isn’t a pretty one.

  6. Did you mean didn’t stop Newman? If yes then no it didn’t stop him trying but it also didn’t help him much either. I think we are all fed up in QLD with politicians giving us insincere apologies.

  7. Labor humour:

    [Remember that Gillard was of the left….]

    In the interests of honesty, shouldn’t the Labor “left”, call themsleves something like the “lepht” to distinuish themselves from real leftists?

  8. Zoomster is right about the so-called “pink batts” program. (HIP actually, if we’re not speaking Murdoch)

    It was arguably one of the best value for money non-core business programs the Commonwealth ever initiated. Rudd should never have apologised for it, and still less allowed Garrett to become the fall guy for the trolling it received in the press. That he did so was a measure of the man’s integrity — or more precisely, the lack thereof. It was also another signal that the regime had indeed lost its way. Had it gone into “batt” for the program (Ha!) and argued it out, there’s no doubt they could have made that too a winner.

    Yes, some shonky small businesses did what those kind of operations do — cut corners to make a quick dollar at the expense of safety, but that was not the fault of the Commonwealth — the primary funding body. Really, if anyone was to blame, it was the states. One may argue that perhaps councils should have done the supervising (with some extra funding) but even so, as Possum has shown, the casualty rate compared well with other similar building programs.

    Rudd trying to pretend he was Beattie in Canberra shows just how vacuous and cynical he was. Murdoch must have been licking his lips.

  9. zoomster

    [William doesn’t have the bandwidth to cope with it.]

    Well worded. I was thinking if you were actually to make a list that it may take you around a year to get the names down.

  10. davidwh@901

    He stupidly tried ‘a Beatie’ which probably only works north of the Tweed and then only if you are Peter Beatie.


    Doesn’t even work north of the Tweed anymore. After numerous insincere apologies even the thickest Banana-benders can spot a fraud.

    It’s why Rudd’s 2013 Beattie Plan failed.

    Yep, as once said by someone whose name I forget: “Sincerity is everything. If you can fake it, you’ve got it made!” 😛

  11. [Yep, as once said by someone whose name I forget: “Sincerity is everything. If you can fake it, you’ve got it made!” ]

    Sounds like something Groucho Marks would have said. 🙂

  12. MTBW – On getting Melham up:

    Two things occur to me –

    – HTF did you do that; and

    – You deserve 6 of the best for doing it.

  13. victoria

    Posted Friday, August 22, 2014 at 1:24 pm | Permalink

    Speaking of shorten, he has addressed a rally in Melbourne with the ambulance workers

    Any idea of the number of lawyers, sitting back waiting to chase the ambulance, that were also there ?

  14. davidwh@916

    Yep, as once said by someone whose name I forget: “Sincerity is everything. If you can fake it, you’ve got it made!”


    Sounds like something Groucho Marks would have said.

    That vintage I think.
    Possibly H.L. Mencken.

  15. The Indonesian Constitutional Court late yesterday unanimously rejected the lawsuit filed by the losing Prabawo camp following the presidential election.

    [The Constitutional Court on Thursday rejected in its entirety the lawsuit filed by presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto against the official election result, reaffirming Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo as Indonesia’s next and seventh president. The losing camp, though, was quick to raise another allegation, this time of an “unjust” ruling by the court.

    “{We} reject the plaintiff’s lawsuit in its entirety,” Chief Justice Hamdan Zoelva said as he read out the verdict.

    There was no dissenting opinion from any of the nine justices in the nation’s highest court. They also granted none of the Prabowo camp’s demands in the lawsuit, including for the court to reject the official tally by the General Elections Commission (KPU), for revotes in seven provinces and for Prabowo and his running mate Hatta Rajasa to be declared winners of the July 9 election instead.]

    http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/constitutional-court-upholds-kpu-decision-name-jokowi-next-president/

  16. [The secret of success is sincerity. Once you can fake that you’ve got it made.
    Jean Giraudoux
    French diplomat, dramatist, & novelist (1882 – 1944)]

    George Burns is often cited too but his cites are later.

  17. Crikey goes the lampoon on the loss making windbags at the Government Gazette

    [If the worst happens and everyone at The Australian were to lose their jobs, the current writers could try their hand in the high-wage, high-labour-cost food and catering industry. Sloan, Ergas, Creighton and Kenny have all bemoaned, at one time or another, the crippling nature of weekend penalty rates in the food sector and how cafes and restaurants have to shut on Sundays because of these wages and employment conditions.

    Well, if conditions are so wonderfully good in a cafe, we can look forward to stumping up to the funky local breakfast place one Sunday morning and see Henry Ergas raking in an excessive salary as he makes eggs florentine. Of course, Chris Kenny would be thrilled to be a barista making a carbon-free decaf soy latte while Judith Sloan beavers away on the home-made baked beans, poached eggs and cous cous infused with a hint of Atlantic salmon. Adam Creighton would be on the juicing machine — trying to get the market to determine the right mix of raspberries, strawberries and blueberries in the ideal smoothie.]

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2014/08/22/chris-kenny-barista-how-the-australian-can-become-profitable/?wpmp_tp=1

  18. Truckies blast Pell:

    [The Chair of the Australian Trucking Association, Noelene Watson, said Cardinal Pell had publicly insulted every truck driver in Australia.

    Mrs Watson was responding to Cardinal Pell’s comments at the Commission where he stated that the Catholic Church was no more responsible for priests who abuse children than a trucking company would be if they employed a driver who molested women.

    “There are more than 170,000 professional truck drivers in Australia. They have families and children. Cardinal Pell’s analogy is a deep insult to every one of them,” Mrs Watson said.]

    http://www.news.com.au/national/cardinal-george-pell-insults-truck-drivers-over-remarks-at-the-royal-commission-into-institutional-responses-to-child-sexual-abuse/story-fncynjr2-1227033209589

  19. BREAKING NEWS David Harold Eastman has conviction for murdering Colin Winchester quashed by full bench of ACT Supreme Court

  20. Anticipated that UNHRC and Human Rights Commission will seek to be heard at Indian/Sri Lankan refugees High Court hearing in mid October

  21. Pell’s comments on the truckers tells us much, much more about Pell personally, and the Catholic Church as an organisation, than Pell ever intended. It’s a business right? The Cardinal has to protect the brand, right?

    Pell’s transmission of Francis’ excuse for the Vatican with holding documents is a classic: it comes down to sovereign risk. There is no way they were ever, ever going to expose the Vatican’s protection racket.

    Faced with the ‘moral’ dilemma of whether to aid justice, to pursue the search for truth and to punish child rapists in the earthly world, Francis solves his problem by saying ‘No’ to the living kids and beatifying some more dead people.

  22. rua
    High Court coming up, I dare say. If that fails, there are going to be some very, very terrified people in the ACT.

  23. rua

    [for murdering Colin Winchester quashed by full bench of ACT Supreme Court]

    The re-trail should consign him to the Treasury basement where he’ll actually be useful.

  24. Latest at Icac

    Palmer says he was given instructions to make out a cheque to the Free Enterprise Foundation. Can’t say who told him. #ICAC

    “It’s obviously got something to do with the Liberals,” Palmer says of the Free Enterprise Foundation. Quite. #ICAC

  25. [“Possibly,” Palmer says when asked if Tinkler was the person who told him to pay tens of thousands of $ to Free Enterprise Foundation #ICAC]

  26. Fran@912 re Pinkbatts

    It was arguably one of the best value for money non-core business programs the Commonwealth ever initiated.

    Agreed.

    Since this roll-out I haven’t heard about any draconian new laws preventing people from installing insulation, or getting in the roof space. Putting a sharp metal thingy through a live electrical cable will always be contraindicated.

  27. [Why the fuck not?]

    Try this for starters.

    [As a consequence of:

    E. The conduct of the prosecution:
    F. Misconduct by investigating police:
    G..The inadequacy of the applicant’s defence:
    H..The failure of the trial judge to grant appropriate adjournments and oversee the interests of the applicant when he was not legally represented and;
    I. The applicant’s mental illness:

    the applicant did not receive a satisfactory trial. His conviction is unlawful and the finding of guilt is unsafe.]

  28. Andrew Elder remind us

    [Paul Kelly said in 2012 that the Coalition had fifty fully-costed policies ready to go…]

    …something worth remembering for those who take his word for gospel.

  29. zoidlord@932

    Tassie libs goes ahead with logging in Tasmania:

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/22/tasmania-prepares-to-tear-up-forestry-peace-deal

    Despite the effects of mass logging.

    Harriss is entirely correct that Conservation Areas and Regional Reserves were already legally open for approved logging, though in the case of RRs the main point of not excluding impacts is to keep them open for mining.

    The rest is just reversing reserves declared by the recent Labor-Greens deal -that is, those that can be reversed, given that the World Heritage Area additions cannot.

    So even if all this goes through there is still more forest reserved than before green groups had their way with the previous administration as part of the tacit price of keeping it in office.

    Nothing like all the area being made available will actually be logged at all let alone soon. The peace deal last year was a scientifically fraudulent result of a shoddy political process. That said I do hope we are not going to see widespread heavily subsidised logging of areas not profitable to harvest just in the aim of keeping the industry afloat. Some people involved in the industry who I know believe it is actually beyond any other kind of rescue.

  30. This was posted earlier, but link broken

    [When pictures circulated on social media of journalist James Foley being executed by the Islamic State, journalists came over all sniffy about how vulgar social media is.

    Once those pictures were published in the Murdoch press – first The New York Post, later in Sydney’s Daily Telegraph, the snobbery about social media seemed to have gone into abeyance. In its place is some sort of general malaise about the world that we live in, rather than experienced people identifying the problem and calling it out.]

    http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2014/08/a-modest-proposal-for-newscorp.html#comment-form

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