Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Labor in Queensland

After a shaky result for the LNP in yesterday’s state poll, today’s federal follow-up brings even worse news from Queensland for the Abbott government.

Tomorrow’s Courier-Mail carries results of a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland, going off the same sample as yesterday’s state poll, and it’s the first of four such polls since the election to show Labor in front. Labor’s 51-49 lead on two-party preferred represents an 8% swing from last year’s federal election, and a three-point shift to Labor from the previous result in February. It also sits well with the current reading from BludgerTrack, suggesting serious problems for the government in what may be the most important state in the country in terms of marginal seats. Primary votes and such to follow shortly. UPDATE: The primary votes are 38% for the Coalition, 36% for Labor, 8% for the Greens and 12% for Palmer United. The poll also finds 36% believe the Abbott government has lived up to expectations, down nine points since February, 56% believe it has performed below them, up nine points, and 4% believe it has been better, down two.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The regular weekly result from Essential Research has both major parties down a point on the primary vote, to 40% for the Coalition and 38% for Labor, and the two main minor parties up one, the Greens to 9% and Palmer United to 6%. Labor gains a point on two-party preferred to lead 52-48. Further questions find a remarkable 43% saying the government should respond to its budget difficulties by calling an election, the breakdowns for party support suggesting this mostly bespeaks a desire to get rid of the government rather than secure the passage of its budget. Thirty-eight per cent say they would rather a new budget be introduced, including a majority among Coalition supporters. I’m not sure if the availability of only two options together with “don’t know” succeeds in capturing the full range of opinion on the subject.

Other questions find opinion on the state of the economy little changed since April, with a good rating of 37% (down one) and a poor rating of 26% (up two), but more thinking it headed in the wrong direction, up seven to 41% with “right direction” down four to 35%. Concern about job losses is up a point to 58%, with the “not at all concerned” response up three to 32%. Twenty-one per cent say the impact of the budget on employment will be good versus 49% for bad. Sixty per cent disapprove of sending troops to Iraq versus 28% who approve, and 36% believe current spending on anti-terrorism measures is about right, compared with 28% who want more and 19% who want less.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,126 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Labor in Queensland”

  1. Bemused re your good self
    __________
    Earlier a poster said that nobody likes you
    Bullsh88….I enjoy your many postings and hope you live long to post them for our information and enjoyment( and DON’/T be too polite)

    …..though I can’t say the same to Edwina(Edward ?? St J)
    I though we might be free of him/her…I fancied that he might have gone off to give support to the child Killers of the IDF

    A recent pic I saw showed the bodies of many dead children in Gaza laid out on the ground in front of the hospital … as the hospital was overwhelmed with treating the living…several were headless too ..the pic hasn’t appeared in the western press

  2. [I assume a pedestrian hit by a car driven by a drunk driver should have “known the risk” of leaving their house.]

    I don’t think that is quite the same as knowingly entering a dangerous war zone where the very fact you are a US citizen will mean you a very likely to get killed.

    Just saying.

  3. Final thought for the night: Joe Hockey and the Coalition will be sweating on the SMH defamation action. If Hockey loses, the ensuing characterisation will be unrepentant and highly-damaging.

  4. [I don’t think that is quite the same as knowingly entering a dangerous war zone where the very fact you are a US citizen will mean you a very likely to get killed.]

    Well if you do a risk assessment the chances of being hit by a car is probably higher than being murdered by an Islamic Zealot in a war zone.

  5. Puff @ 1059. Ha. That’s a good one. I missed last night, and apparently something about Julian Assange.

    Regardless of Assange, Wikileaks is great.

  6. deblonay@1102

    Bemused re your good self
    __________
    Earlier a poster said that nobody likes you
    Bullsh88….I enjoy your many postings and hope you live long to post them for our information and enjoyment( and DON’/T be too polite)

    …..though I can’t say the same to Edwina(Edward ?? St J)
    I though we might be free of him/her…I fancied that he might have gone off to give support to the child Killers of the IDF

    A recent pic I saw showed the bodies of many dead children in Gaza laid out on the ground in front of the hospital … as the hospital was overwhelmed with treating the living…several were headless too ..the pic hasn’t appeared in the western press

    Thanks deblonay, I don’t get bothered by those few pathetic individuals who do their best to discourage me. I find them rather like annoying mosquitoes so occasionally I swat one.

    I was interested to read today that Hedy Epstein had been arrested in a Ferguson protest.
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/08/18/1322813/-90-Year-Old-Holocaust-Survivor-Hedy-Epstein-Arrested-in-Ferguson-Protest

    What an amazing woman!

  7. mikehilliard

    Want I mean is yes he was doing a dangerous job in a dangerous area but the person who deliberatly murdered him is still responsible. The murderer is not exonerated because the journalist was in a risky area.

  8. bemused

    “Thanks deblonay, I don’t get bothered by those few pathetic individuals who do their best to discourage me. I find them rather like annoying mosquitoes so occasionally I swat one.”

    Wow this is pretty much the smuggest thing I’ve ever read.

  9. guytaur

    “Twitter is reacting very negatively in my timeline to this interview.”

    Let me guess, you follow a bunch of people whose political views just happen to mirror your own?

  10. mike hilliard

    [I don’t think that is quite the same as knowingly entering a dangerous war zone where the very fact you are a US citizen will mean you a very likely to get killed.]

    Indeed. That doesn’t entail thinking for even a moment that Foley was reckless or in some way a contributor to the horrendous fate he suffered. He was courageously doing dangerous work in a war zone, helping those of us outside grasp the reality of life there. We are in his debt. We grieve his loss, solidarise with his family and honour his memory.

    His killers are murderous psychopaths. In a rather better world, there would be no such people and even in one just marginally better, these criminals would be apprehended, tried and sequestered from contact with the rest of us. Sadly, that’s not the case, and brave folk like Foley will occasionally gamble and pay a dreadful price for doing their important work.

  11. BB
    Is everything okay? I am surprised by your post.

    Foley’s end was horrific. He is a real journalist, not like those pampered poseurs in our press gallery. I wish we had journalists with the courage in one of his fingers reporting in this country.

    Whatever these ISIS psychopaths think of their cause, the murder of journalists is an indictment of their complete barbarity.

    I condemn their actions in the strongest terms, and do not hold Mr Foley responsible at all. If these journalists did not report we would not know, and lots have been and will be killed doing their job. We can at least mourn their loss and honour their courage.

  12. http://www.theage.com.au/national/asylum-staff-hit-by-mental-health-crisis-20140820-3e10e.html

    I said it was going to happen due to the lack of understanding the costs involved running the detention centers.

    “The two Serco employees, whose distress was prompted by prolonged exposure to depressed and self-harming asylum seekers, have been flown to the mainland.”

    “Sources said the two employees had been ”on constant”, meaning they were required to prevent asylum seekers on suicide watch from self-harming for the duration of their 12-hour shifts. ”It really does their heads in because they’re watching people trying to kill or harm themselves all the time,” one insider told Fairfax Media.”

    No different to Centerlink staff shortages and stress due to large amounts of people they have to look after.

  13. zoidlord

    [No different to Centerlink staff shortages and stress due to large amounts of people they have to look after.]

    People do not come in large numbers of kilos (amounts), though they may come in large numbers.

  14. Paul Kelly lost any insight or credibility years ago.

    Like the equally discredited Grattan though, he remains something of a protected species within the press corps — “journalistic solidarity” and all that I suppose.

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