Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Labor in Queensland

After a shaky result for the LNP in yesterday’s state poll, today’s federal follow-up brings even worse news from Queensland for the Abbott government.

Tomorrow’s Courier-Mail carries results of a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland, going off the same sample as yesterday’s state poll, and it’s the first of four such polls since the election to show Labor in front. Labor’s 51-49 lead on two-party preferred represents an 8% swing from last year’s federal election, and a three-point shift to Labor from the previous result in February. It also sits well with the current reading from BludgerTrack, suggesting serious problems for the government in what may be the most important state in the country in terms of marginal seats. Primary votes and such to follow shortly. UPDATE: The primary votes are 38% for the Coalition, 36% for Labor, 8% for the Greens and 12% for Palmer United. The poll also finds 36% believe the Abbott government has lived up to expectations, down nine points since February, 56% believe it has performed below them, up nine points, and 4% believe it has been better, down two.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The regular weekly result from Essential Research has both major parties down a point on the primary vote, to 40% for the Coalition and 38% for Labor, and the two main minor parties up one, the Greens to 9% and Palmer United to 6%. Labor gains a point on two-party preferred to lead 52-48. Further questions find a remarkable 43% saying the government should respond to its budget difficulties by calling an election, the breakdowns for party support suggesting this mostly bespeaks a desire to get rid of the government rather than secure the passage of its budget. Thirty-eight per cent say they would rather a new budget be introduced, including a majority among Coalition supporters. I’m not sure if the availability of only two options together with “don’t know” succeeds in capturing the full range of opinion on the subject.

Other questions find opinion on the state of the economy little changed since April, with a good rating of 37% (down one) and a poor rating of 26% (up two), but more thinking it headed in the wrong direction, up seven to 41% with “right direction” down four to 35%. Concern about job losses is up a point to 58%, with the “not at all concerned” response up three to 32%. Twenty-one per cent say the impact of the budget on employment will be good versus 49% for bad. Sixty per cent disapprove of sending troops to Iraq versus 28% who approve, and 36% believe current spending on anti-terrorism measures is about right, compared with 28% who want more and 19% who want less.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,126 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Labor in Queensland”

  1. Murdoch goon Col Allen, editor of the NY Post, has plastered the front page with a hideous graphic image of the poor journalist being beheaded.

    This is despite the family pleading for the images to not be publicised.

    It would not surprise me if the Daily ToiletPaper is not planning to do the same, under direction of Editor Paul “The Ratbag” Whittaker.

  2. Couldn’t the Vic government just pass some legislation which makes it impossible for the EW contract to be carried out, such as making the area a non-development zone?

  3. Tony Abbott (under the auspices of John Howard) didn’t go after Pauline Hanson all those years ago because he objected to her message. He went after her because she was muscling in on Liberal turf.

  4. [ Andrew W. Elder @awelder · 26m
    Journalists, please note: if you die doing your job, @rupertmurdoch will milk your death for a few extra coins]

    ????

  5. Diogenes@1054

    Couldn’t the Vic government just pass some legislation which makes it impossible for the EW contract to be carried out, such as making the area a non-development zone?

    Psyclaw had a fairly comprehensive post earlier. A page or two back.

  6. [The high-resolution video shows the killing of 40-year-old James Foley, a freelancer who had been missing since being kidnapped in Syria in 2012.

    Foley’s family has confirmed his death, saying: “We have never been prouder of our son Jim. He gave his life trying to expose the world to the suffering of the Syrian people.”

    The video, titled “A message to America”, shows Foley on his knees, dressed in an orange jumpsuit, next to a militant clad completely in black with his face covered. ]

    Okay, got the reference to the beheading, but not sure what it has to do with News ltd specifically.

  7. mikeh:

    Labor leadershit when Gillard and the former member for Griffith are no longer in the parliament?

    What a frickin WOFTAM on ABC’s behalf.

  8. [ Unfarking believable Lateline goes the full Monty on leadershit with Kelly & TJones.

    RIP ABC. ]

    Those who live in the past are destined to become history.

  9. fess

    [Labor leadershit when Gillard and the former member for Griffith are no longer in the parliament?]

    I know, only bemused would be interested. 😀

  10. mikehilliard@1080

    bemused

    I think Kelly must have written a book and is promoting it.


    Come on, what’s the title of the book????

    No idea, I missed the start of the program where they may have mentioned it.
    It is a long while since Kelly has written anything worth reading.

  11. What could Paul Kelly have to say about Rudd/Gillard that’s in any way fresh or interesting?

    It’s over. They lost the election. Get over it, Murdoch hacks!

    Rudd and Gillard are dead an buried (although, I must admit, not cremated yet).

  12. Bemused Comrade

    Yes, it was Lateline promoting Kelly’s book.

    Two gems of wisdom from Kelly ……. amazin!!!

    1. It’s easy to be successful being negative (in Opposition) but hard to be successful being positive (in Government)

    2. It’s no good having good policy and plans and then not seling them successfully.

    Surely one does not get paid actual money for identifying these gems.

  13. [ It’s over. They lost the election. Get over it, Murdoch hacks! ]

    Neither the Murdoch hacks nor Abbott himself seems to realize they won the last election yet.

    They remind me of a dog chasing a car … it never occurs to them to wonder what the fuck they are going to do should they ever catch it!

  14. Re the earlier discussion on the big downturn in sales and revenues of Murdoch crapsheets.

    The link from Sprocket @1073 and numerous previous examples give a big part of the reason: Newscorp serves when needed as the propaganda arm of the LNP and, in jurisdictions where the LNP are in power, the Government Propaganda unit.

    Lots of customers are voting with their feet. They decide they are no longer paying $2 or whatever for this crap. I was a regular buyer of the Weekend Australian until about 4 years ago but stopped for this reason.

  15. sprocket

    [Murdoch organ Courier Mail juxtaposes Glenn Lazarus bucket tip, with throat about to be cut.]

    I did think the juxtaposition of “Courier Mail …. Pure Evil” was an (admittedly unintentional) bit of honesty from a Murdoch propaganda organ.

  16. psyclaw@1087

    Bemused Comrade

    Yes, it was Lateline promoting Kelly’s book.

    Two gems of wisdom from Kelly ……. amazin!!!

    1. It’s easy to be successful being negative (in Opposition) but hard to be successful being positive (in Government)

    2. It’s no good having good policy and plans and then not seling them successfully.

    Surely one does not get paid actual money for identifying these gems.

    Well he can’t accuse the Abbott gang of having good policy and plans.

  17. [@smh: The New York Post has provoked outrage by publishing a graphic front page image of James Foley about to be executed http://t.co/ghs6e31VYk%5D

    Yeah, the SMH “while declining to publish it”, provides a link, anyway.

    Whether what happened to James Foley is awful or not, he knew the risks. He was nearly killed once before after being captured, by Gaddafi’s henchmen. Many press photographers admit they get off on the adrenalin rush and the constant danger. In short, it’s how a lot of them get their kicks. The “All I want to do is bring the truth about {insert tinpot basketcase country name here} usually comes later.

    Then again, someone has to do it, but let’s not turn them into instant saints.

    They often muse later on about how detatched they felt, seeing someone shot or strangled, or some poor little kid dying of hunger. Well, I guess now James Foley knows what it’s like to be on the other side of the lens.

    It’s terrible he died like that. No-one deserves to die like that. But he took on the challenge, flipped the coin, and lost, just like thousands of poor victims he featured in in his photographs and his stories.

    Now he is the story.

  18. Bushfire Bill @ 1095:

    “Whether what happened to James Foley is awful or not, he knew the risks.”

    If you are doubting that what happened to Foley is awful, you are identifying yourself as a psychopath.

    I sometimes enjoy your writing, but your post is one of the most repellent and callous I have ever read here.

  19. BB @ 1095

    [“Whether what happened to James Foley is awful or not, he knew the risks.”]

    What a piece of nasty immoral garbage.

    Life is full of “risk”. Flying, driving, swimming, running, sex, etc……. anything that happens has risk and therefore we should “know the risk”, at least in hindsight, so what is the point of saying that?

    I assume you mean he is partly responsible because “he knew the risk” (your assumption).

    I assume a pedestrian hit by a car driven by a drunk driver should have “known the risk” of leaving their house.

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