Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Labor in Queensland

After a shaky result for the LNP in yesterday’s state poll, today’s federal follow-up brings even worse news from Queensland for the Abbott government.

Tomorrow’s Courier-Mail carries results of a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland, going off the same sample as yesterday’s state poll, and it’s the first of four such polls since the election to show Labor in front. Labor’s 51-49 lead on two-party preferred represents an 8% swing from last year’s federal election, and a three-point shift to Labor from the previous result in February. It also sits well with the current reading from BludgerTrack, suggesting serious problems for the government in what may be the most important state in the country in terms of marginal seats. Primary votes and such to follow shortly. UPDATE: The primary votes are 38% for the Coalition, 36% for Labor, 8% for the Greens and 12% for Palmer United. The poll also finds 36% believe the Abbott government has lived up to expectations, down nine points since February, 56% believe it has performed below them, up nine points, and 4% believe it has been better, down two.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The regular weekly result from Essential Research has both major parties down a point on the primary vote, to 40% for the Coalition and 38% for Labor, and the two main minor parties up one, the Greens to 9% and Palmer United to 6%. Labor gains a point on two-party preferred to lead 52-48. Further questions find a remarkable 43% saying the government should respond to its budget difficulties by calling an election, the breakdowns for party support suggesting this mostly bespeaks a desire to get rid of the government rather than secure the passage of its budget. Thirty-eight per cent say they would rather a new budget be introduced, including a majority among Coalition supporters. I’m not sure if the availability of only two options together with “don’t know” succeeds in capturing the full range of opinion on the subject.

Other questions find opinion on the state of the economy little changed since April, with a good rating of 37% (down one) and a poor rating of 26% (up two), but more thinking it headed in the wrong direction, up seven to 41% with “right direction” down four to 35%. Concern about job losses is up a point to 58%, with the “not at all concerned” response up three to 32%. Twenty-one per cent say the impact of the budget on employment will be good versus 49% for bad. Sixty per cent disapprove of sending troops to Iraq versus 28% who approve, and 36% believe current spending on anti-terrorism measures is about right, compared with 28% who want more and 19% who want less.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,126 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Labor in Queensland”

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  1. A bit of editing required William.
    This is obviously not correct: “The poll shows Labor ahead 51-48 on the primary vote”

  2. Actually, funny that we are not hearing as much about “Operation Leave Them There” as we heard about “Operation Bring Them Home”???

  3. [Come on BB, 1000 is a nice round number isn’t it?? Easy to get your head around and sounds REALLY impressive.]

    Yeah, but 1000? Who does he think he is? And who does he think the Army is? They’d have been slaughtered.

  4. So the question that must be asked: is Newman dragging down Abbott, or is Abbott dragging down Newman?

    Looking at the state swings I’m tempted to suggest a bit of both. Ordinarily you would expect the QLD swing to the ALP to be dampened a bit when switching away from a Queenslander to a Victorian as Labor leader!

    (Although, I guess Rudd was really just a Southerner, as seen by those north of the Fitzroy).

  5. UNICEF Australia ‏@unicefaustralia 1h

    ‘Its a clear conflict of interest that @ScottMorrisonMP as minister is guardian and jailer of children’ Fmr Chief Justice tells #lateline

  6. [ Yeah, but 1000? ]

    Its shows the depths of his commitment to the retrieval of bodies. He must after all be a serious dude if he will put 1000 troopers at risk to retrieve the bodies of 100 or so Australians??

    [ Who does he think he is? ]

    The Nemesis of Big Bad Vlad of course. 🙂

  7. Have Queenslanders woken up to the fact that the LNP is just a bunch of con-artists who lied their way into government and are busy shafting anyone not wearing white sandshoes?

    At last.

  8. William, I can’t work out what the actual result is.

    In the headline it is 51 to 49, then in the body of your comment you say:
    The poll shows Labor ahead 51-48 on two-party preferred, representing an 8% swing from last year’s federal election and a three-point shift to Labor from the previous result in February. ]

    Is one using voting intention now, and the other using preferences from the last election? Presumably 51-48 is because of rounding errors?

  9. Here is something substantively good. It fixes up a mess of the Abbott Government’s own making, but any sign of adults at work in this space is very welcome, IMHO. The text is by Sheridan in today’s The Australian. Remarkably, the article is absolutely ‘flat’ and it compltely lacks the usual hagiographic bullshit that accompanies a Sheridan article involving the use of the term ‘Abbott’.

    Perhaps Sheridan is relieved at, for once, not having to polish the unpolishable.

    This would have to be the indefatiguable Bishop’s finest moment.


    The Canberra-Jakarta agreement will settle all issues arising over allegations that the then ­Defence Signals Directorate spied on Indonesia’s President and his inner entourage in 2009.

    It will also lead to the resumption of co-operation in those policy areas where such efforts had been suspended by Jakarta.

    The agreement will be called the Joint Understanding of a Code of Conduct.

    It will stand formally as an annex to the Lombok Treaty on mutual security, which Alexander Downer signed on behalf of the Howard government with then Indonesian foreign minister Hassan Wirajuda in 2006.

    Canberra had wanted to call the agreement a joint understanding in order to keep it relatively vague. Jakarta had wanted a code of conduct to be more specific and prescriptive. The compromise is a Joint Understanding of a Code of Conduct.

    In the short agreement, Australia will promise never to use its intelligence agencies to harm Indonesia.


  10. Morning

    Excerpt of Abbott on news last night showing his interview with hadley. Members of family all had the same reaction. Abbott looks like Hitler!

    Reading similiar reactions here was quite amusing

  11. Clueless government

    [It seems obvious now but the raft of promises for a “stronger economy” and “fixing the budget mess” were mere platitudes with no policy substance behind them.

    The proof of this cluelessness shows up in the fact that after 11 months in office, the budget bottom line has worsened as a result of government policy decisions and the economic growth outlook has deteriorated to a point where the unemployment rate has already exceeded the downbeat forecasts in Treasurer Hockey’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook.
    . . .
    The worry is how slow, lethargic and cumbersome the government is. It took eight long months from election day until it handed down its first fiscal statement, the budget in May 2014, which shocked the electorate with the mix of policy issues, most of which seem to have been dreamed up in the weeks leading into the budget.

    Now, the government is floundering to the point where it is still trash-talking the economy and is doing little if anything to support growth. Three months on from the budget, Hockey is stretching and lurching from meeting to meeting, trying to talk to the crossbench Senators in an effort to get their support for the measures in the budget.]

  12. Morning all. More headaches for Joe.

    [Treasurer Mike Nahan will travel to Canberra to make the case for a fairer goods and services tax distribution directly to Federal MPs and senators.

    In a sign WA Federal Liberals are starting to put the issue on the agenda, WA Senator Dean Smith has invited Dr Nahan to address a meeting of “interested Federal members”, which Senator Smith will convene.]

  13. The Qld result may be due to several things. The cronyism of the Newman govt does not help Abbott and Paluszczuk is not hurting Labor (flawless performance in fact). The collapse of coal prices and the coal boom exposes that neither Newman nor Abbott have any idea how to fix the economy. On these numbers the national result will not be great for Team Murdoch, sorry, Team America, sorry, Team Abbott.

  14. Good Morning

    It appears I was wrong about the Murdochracy going after Palmer. They of course have an article about it. However its no more prominent than the article is in Fairfax.

    This might explain why Barnaby Joyce is out attacking him on the media this morning.

    Agree with Palmer or not the government openly attacking the man does nothing to help negotiations.

  15. Confessions

    Nahan has a point. The WA GST share was based on the mining boom and their extra revenue. With that gone and a growing population, WA should get a much larger share of the GST. This would mean less for Vic and the recovering NSW economy.

  16. I was touched to tears last night when a scientist who had been studying coral reefs for years said sadly that he was glad he would die soon, so that he wouldn’t see the death of the reef.

  17. Socrates:

    Barnett has been on about GST reform for some time now, targetting in particular of late those WA Liberals who are on Abbott’s front bench.

  18. Just thinking some more about the Sheridan article…

    Abbott and SBY were to get together but this was not possible. Subtext: Abbott was too busy doing MH17 and Iraq photo ops to bother about our most important foreign policy set of issues: our relationship with Indonesia.

    That would explain Sheridan’s lack of hagiography.

  19. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    These are the types that Cormann’s FoFA legislation supports.
    Peter Martin says that Hockey has apologised for being insensitive but needs to apologise for not having a grasp of his own budget.
    Greg Jericho as usual backs up his assertions with good graphical data to say that Hocky is simply not up to his job.
    And Stephen Koukoulas continues on the same theme.
    Why Treasurers should go back to economics school.
    David Donovan – The Abbott Gaffernment. Well worth reading.,6786
    Bob Ellis on the impending IPAC woes for Joe Hockey.
    Michelle Grattan – Palmer knows how to mess with Abbott’s mind.
    Why unions are necessary.
    Abbott blames “confusion” for the Libs’ ICAC woes. How confused must one be to think that handing out cash in brown paper bags and rinsing the money through strange financial constructs is OK?

  20. Section 2 . . .

    Some people think Abbott’s populist knee-jerk on terrorism might just have the opposite effect to that desired.
    The three worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    The Greens take the revenue collapse to the negotiating table on the budget.
    Peter Wicks – The strange world of Kathy Jackson supporters.
    Yesterday at the Royal Commission into child sexual abuse – not a good look for the “Melbourne Response”.
    Here’s David Marr’s take on proceedings.
    Nice work Abbott and friends!
    How a cut to the RET will affect the budget and other things.
    Hugh White schools Abbott on foreign policy.
    Is Hockey’s budget beyond salvation?

  21. Section 3 . . .

    Ron Tandberg has Abbott berating a hapless Hockey.

    MUST SEE! Alan Moir with a rather bellicose Popeye Abbott introducing “Operation Get ’em Out”.
    Lovely work from David Pope – National Insecurity.
    David Rowe – Hotel Australia Budget Accommodation.

  22. “@abcnews: #BREAKING: #Australia and #Indonesia strike deal to resume intelligence and military cooperation”

    Fantastic. This will mean less detention of AS as people smugglers are jailed besides of course the usual crime including terrorism measures.

    Does this mean 5 eyes has become 6 eyes?

  23. Confessions

    It is a good line of attack. For all the loyalty of WA voters to the Liberal cause, they have been given little in return. Not only is the WA GST share low and out of date, but most of Abbott’s much touted infrastructure funding is going to Sydney and Melbourne for some very expensive toll road tunnel deals with his financier buddies. WA are getting peanuts.

  24. [I was touched to tears last night when a scientist who had been studying coral reefs for years said sadly that he was glad he would die soon, so that he wouldn’t see the death of the reef.]

    Yes, there are people of immense integrity in this country, but mostly they are sidelined. The state of the Great Barrier Reef should be a national tragedy, but of course we have more important things to discuss or get outraged about.

  25. A good article here by a real economist on why the rhetoric (as well as the policy ideas) of many politicians exposes that they really do not understand economics at all. Joe Hockey this means you. Have a good day all. Off to hear Phillip Glass I tonight at SA Opera with Xanthippe 🙂

  26. [I guess the solution is more education policy officers?]

    My son’s teacher believes the resources currently being used for the school’s Christian Pastoral Support Worker should be redirected towards classroom support for children who require additional assistance.

    She also told me she thinks we are approaching education the wrong way and we should do what they do in many Scandanavian countries; spend the first 6 years building social skills and self-confidence and don’t start on academic stuff until those bedrocks are already in place.

    After witnessing first-hand the problems here in SA since they introduced the policy this year of “you can start at 4 if you turn 5 during first term”, I can certainly see where they’re coming from.

  27. You have to wonder whether our esteemed PM is part of Team Big Britain, Team USA, Team Brown Paper Bags, Team Drugs in Sport or Team Another Planet.

  28. Same applies to cutting off dole payments to unemployed. Truss tried to say they will benefit from Coalition handouts. Nicely argues by one of the audience that a tiny payment for work for the dole hardly covered the travelling costs to get there.

    [Australian terrorism experts have questioned the Coalition’s move to cut welfare payments to people involved in extremist conduct, saying it could push potential extremists into the arms of terror organisations.

    Victoria University Professor Michele Grossman said people drawn to extremism already felt alienated from the community and that the federal government’s plan would ”compound” people’s lack of belonging. ”It’s a very, very risky strategy,” she said.

    ”If you deny people who need benefits, it draws them to seek alternative forms of support.”

    Professor Grossman, whose research focuses on countering violent extremism, said recruiters for violent organisations often used financial support to appeal to new members.]

    Read more:

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